Superbowl or Bust Division
1. Indianapolis Colts 6-0 - The Colts are a juggernaut right now. They haven't had their second best receiver all season and it looks like their best may now miss some time, but it just does not matter. They haven't even run the ball that well yet, but Peyton looks better than ever and the defense has been spectacular. This team looks poised to coast into the playoffs and probably has not even peaked yet.
2. New Orleans Saints 6-0 - Steamrolling the Giants was impressive, but not as impressive as the comeback this week against Miami. They basically showed that they can totally take a half off and still beat a competent team with ease. The difference with the Saints this year is that they're running the ball better than ever and the defense has been good enough. The Saints have been playing like the Colts did in the early/middle part of this decade when they just overwhelmed with offense. But the Colts did not win the Superbowl until the defense starting carrying their wait, this might be that season for the Saints.
The Serious Contenders
3. Minnesota Vikings 6-1 - I know they lost this week but I watched a lot of that game, and they were the better team. Pittsburgh is very good, but Minnesota is better and sometimes the best team doesn't win. These guys can beat you in multiple ways on offense and although their defense has been O.K. I think they are capable of playing better. One worry is the loss of standout corner Antoine Winfield for the next month or so. He will be missed but Minnesota should have enough pieces to survive. Next week's game in Green Bay will be a good test of how good they are.
4. Denver Broncos 6-0 - Do I really trust them? No, not really, but it is impossible to ignore what that defense has done, and Orton is the right quarterback to have if the defense can really hold oppositions under 15 points a game. Over the next 5 weeks they four good teams and at the end of that stretch we should know for sure just how for real they are.
5. New York Giants 5-2 - The loss to New Orleans on the road was forgivable, the loss at home to Arizona is a bit more worrying and their schedule doesn't get much easier in the coming weeks. Still, there is a lot of talent here and the defense certainly hasn't played up to expectations just yet. As Manning continues to develop some chemistry with his young receivers, the offense should be a real asset.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2 - Pittsburgh has been shaky all season but they go into a needed bye week at 5-2. The timing couldn't be better as they face Denver and Cincinnati out of the gate. I think the week off will help them drastically and allow them to settle back into their normal game-plan. Mendenhall's emergence should stimulate the stagnant running game and their defense had one of their better efforts this week against Minnesota even though they were lucky to come out with a victory.
How Good Are We Really?
7. New England Patriots 5-2 - They're coming off two blowout wins but both were to but were to awful teams. Maybe those two games gave them the confidence they had been lacking and maybe Brady has truly righted himself completely and is about to go on another insane run, but it is impossible to know whether or not they were simply taking advantage of the circumstances. They have a bye this week, and then play the Saints and Colts in two of their next four games. If they come out of that four game stretch with a 3-1 or better they become serious Super Bowl contenders.
8. Cincinnati 5-2 - Coming off their most impressive win of the season, a blowout of Chicago, the Bengals are starting to have some passengers on the bandwagon. Palmer finally looks healthy, Ochocinco is happy and Benson seems to fit in nicely. The defense has also been consistently good. However, they are the Bengals and there is just such a long track record with not just this team, but this group of players as well, of failure that it is hard to trust them just yet. They get the Ravens and Steelers after this weeks bye, and after that they have three straight easy games. If they can split those first two, you are looking at a 9-3 team with a playoff berth all bug locked up.
Maybe If Everything Goes Juuuuuust Right
9. Dallas 4-2 - Look, for all the turmoil, they're sitting at 4-2 and just crushed a pretty good Atlanta team. Who among all active QB's has the highest yards per attempt average for their career? None other than Mr. Tony Romo. Oh, and who has the third highest passer rating for their career EVER? Tony Romo. Everyone needs to get off of his back, the guy is a really good player. The Cowboys can also run the ball really well and their defense has been great. This is a dangerous team now that Romo has found another target he trusts in Miles Austin.
10. Green Bay 4-2 - They have had an easy schedule, but I'm a bit Rodgers fan and the defense is good. Their achilles heel is their offense line. They have been completely unable to protect Rodgers or open up any holes for Ryan Grant thus far. I'm expecting them to figure it out at least a little bit from here on out, but it is certainly possible that isn't the case and Rodgers ends up needing to be carried off the field in the near future. They are at home against Minnesota this week in what should be one of the feature games of week 8.
11. Arizona Cardinals 4-2 - So many things broke right for Arizona last year, leading to an improbable Superbowl run. Some things remain the same, they still can't run the ball effectively and the passing game is great, although not quite as explosive as last year so far. However, their defensive effort this season has been a huge improvement, particularly against the run. Week 7's win against the Giants was a big surprise and now they're about to start a stretch of 5 straight games they should win. If they take care of business and build up momentum over that stretch, expect them to go well up this board.
12. Atlanta 4-2 - They're not running the ball effectively at all right now, but the passing game is strong as Ryan seems to have developed some early chemistry with Tony Gonzalez. They are a bit undersized on defense and got pushed around by both Dallas and New England, the only two good teams they have played so far. However, on the whole I think their offense is more likely to get better than worse at this point and there are not a ton of teams that can take full advantage of their defense shortcomings.
13. Houston 4-3 - Houston's passing game is one of the best in the league and while they have struggled to run the ball, that side of the offense has looked better lately. Sure their defense will occasionally lay an egg but they have a lot of weapons that teams have to deal with. Other than having to play the Colts twice before the season is over, they have a pretty easily schedule from here on out as well, and just like the Cardinals last year, no one will want to play them in the playoffs if they get hot.
14. Baltimore 3-3 - This is the most dynamic offense Baltimore has had since they became the Ravens. Flacco has improved drastically since last season and Rice is starting to look like a top running back. However, the defense is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, particularly against the pass. It's not a bad defense, but those days when teams dreaded playing Baltimore are over. The defense is still good enough to get this team into the playoffs, and possibly deep, but they have got to play better from here on out.
15. NY Jets 4-3 - It may not be a huge stretch to say they have lost their most important player on offense and defense to injury for the season when Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington went down in back to back weeks. They have an important game against Miami this week before heading into a needed bye. Every week more cracks in the dam seem to appear on defense and Sanchez clearly could use a week to catch his breath. The adjustments they make during that off-week will ultimately decide their fate, but they still have a good shot at making the playoffs.
16. San Diego 3-3 - The Chargers have dug themselves out of deep holes before but they have not beat a good team yet this year and with Denver pulling away making the playoffs is going to be a lot tougher this year. Norv Turner still looks like a borderline competent coach and LDT is not getting any younger. The passing attack remains extremely potent but is any other aspect of their game really above average at this point? They have essentially 4 free wins left on their schedule, but will need to take care of business in each of those games and probably go 3-3 in the harder games to make the playoffs.
17. Chicago 3-3 - The Bears blowout loss to Cincinnati exposed how flawed they are on both sides of the ball. The defense has really only had one good game, week 2 against the Steelers, and the offense has been shockingly inconsistent all year. Cutler is making far too many mistakes with the ball and Matt Forte has been stuck in neutral all year. The talent is there to improve drastically and maybe this past week will be a wake up call but right now the Bears chances at the post-season look grim.
18. Philadelphia 4-2 - The Eagles have beaten Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Washington. They lost to Oakland and got blown out by New Orleans. Essentially they have played one team that was not part of the dregs of the league and got blown out. The best thing they have going for them is that they are 4-2, but for the remainder of their schedule they only play two teams currently ranked below them on this list. If they continue to play at their current level, expect a massive nose-dive in the coming weeks, and Westbrook's injury is not going to help either.
Just Not that Good at All Really
19. San Francisco 3-3 - The Niners actually do a lot of things well and I am anxious to see if Alex Smith can turn himself into a worthwhile player after being completely forgotten about. The defense is slowly figuring it out and now with Crabtree signed there are some real weapons on offense to work with. This is definitely a team on the upswing, but they're not there yet. The only way they could really go on an extended run and be playoff contenders is if Smith suddenly plays like a Pro Bowler and that's a lofty expectation for someone who was considered one of the biggest busts in draft history a couple days ago.
20. Miami 2-4 - The Dolphins have really only had one cupcake game all season and have consistently been competitive all year. However, the biggest problem remains that the defense is completely unable to get off the field in key situations. As a result, they simply cannot hold the lead, even with their excellent power running game. Chad Henne has shown signs that he is a legit NFL quarterback, a really good sign for Miami's future, but he is not ready to start winning games on his own yet which they need because of that defense. Miami is a solid team but they just cannot go very far with such deficiencies on one side of the ball.
21. Seattle 2-4 - They are actually 2-1 with Hasselbeck healthy, but lost badly to the only good team they played in that stretch, and the chances of Hasselbeck staying healthy for the rest of the season are just not that good. The defense has played well, but the passing game just cannot seem to get going and the running game continues to be a mess ever since Shaun Alexander lost it. Seattle probably needs a complete roster overhaul but as long as they play in the terrible NFC West the playoffs always seem attainable so I can understand why they keep trying with temporary solutions.
22. Jacksonville 3-3 - This is another team with a solid record, but only one of their wins came against a solid team (Houston who was actually scuffling at the time) and just barely squeaked by the lowly Rams a week after getting blown out Seattle. They don't play good defense and David Garrard just looks scared throwing the football right now. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing well right now and Mike Sims-Walker is emerging as a real receiving threat but they need a lot of help if this team is going anywhere.
23. Carolina 2-4 - Carolina has been a very bad team because of only one reason really. Their play out of the quarterback position has been absolutely abysmal. I was never a Jake Del Homme fan even when he was having success because he just seem to be careless with his throws, but now it is finally coming back to hurt him. It is unfortunate because they have such a great running attack and decent enough defense, but the quarterback has just been killing them all-season. It is time for this franchise to move onto a new quarterback (apparently Matt Moore) and see if that can fix their problems.
24 Buffalo 3-4 - Another team that really is not that bad except they do not have an NFL quality quarterback. Trent Edwards plays like a deer in the headlights, refusing to take any risks with the ball and checking down to his running backs far too often. Amazingly he still has managed to throw 6 INTs in 5 anyway! Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long-term answer either but he is a clear upgrade at this point. Their defense is better than people realize and the running game is fine when they give the ball to Fred Jackson instead of the useless Marshawn Lynch so there are reasons for optimism at least.
Barely Able to be Called Football Teams
25 Detroit 1-5 - The Lions have two positive things going for them: Calvin Johnson is a really good football and someday Matt Stafford might be. Shockingly, that was all it took to be considered better than 7 other teams; such is the state of the NFL this year. To be fair, Kevin Smith actually seems like a capable running back as well, but the offensive line is still poor and the defense is just bad across the board, still a long way to go in Detroit.
26 Washington 2-5 - The soap opera continues for the league perennial underachiever. The defense is solid, but the offense has been so completely inept in every way it is hard to see them beating anybody. They may have two wins but have played by far the easiest schedule in the NFL and until they play the Raiders in week 14 I don't really see an opponent I would expect them to beat.
27 Kansas City 1-6 - Larry Johnson is the kind of player you tolerate when he is average 4.5 yards per carry and among the league leaders in touchdowns. When you are in the midst of a rebuilding project and he's bad mouthing the coach and organization on a National stage while average 2.7 YPC, it is time to send him packing. Jamaal Charles has the potential to be an explosive playmaker and the Matt Cassell/Dwayne Bowe combo has shown flashes as well. However this team remains a very long way from even being competitive.
28 Tennessee 0-6 - Quite a tumble for last year's Superbowl contenders and it is actually hard to figure out why. They had some tough games to start the season and then just seemingly completely quit. They have been so bad that it only took 6 games for the longest tenured coach in the league, Jeff Fisher, to go from coach of the year candidate to the hot seat. The defense is mostly to blame but the Titans' passing attack has been almost non-existent. It looks like Vince Young might get another chance soon, not sure that's a good thing.
29 Oakland 2-5 - I'm not sure there is anything nice to say about Oakland. They were lucky to beat Kansas City in week two and I still have no idea how they beat Philadelphia. In the last 5 weeks this team is 1-4 and the margins by which they lost those 4 games are: 20, 23, 36, 38; that is shockingly non-competitive. The defense has a couple of individuals who can play but they are surrounded by players who have almost no business being in the league and the offense is completely hopeless, particularly with Darren McFadden hurt.
30 Cleveland 1-6 - Starting QB Derek Anderson has a QB rating of 40.6 and Eric Mangini still thinks he is the best option they have, that's usually not a good sign. In fact their best player on offense, Mohamed Massaquoi is actually an undrafted rookie free agent. Their top two running backs have combined to average 3.5 YPC and their QB's are average 4.72 yards per pass attempt while being intercepted 11 times. That's an offense that is completely hopeless in every way.
31 Tampa Bay 0-7 - This once proud franchise has lost to Buffalo, Carolina and Washington among others. They can actually run the ball a little bit but because their passing game and defense are so horrible they are usually losing by double digits before the half and have to abandon the run. They appear to consider Josh Freeman their QB of the future but are seemingly reluctant to play him because getting experience in this environment could not possibly help. Tampa Bay was expected to be bad as they are obviously in a rebuilding phase, but I don't think anyone thought they would be this atrocious.
32 St. Louis 0-7 - Where to start? They have scored the fewest points in football (60) while allowing the most (211). They've actually run the ball fairly well as Jackson is over 600 yards, but has yet to reach the end zone. Their quarterbacks seem to spend more time dodging pass-rushers than throwing the ball and their defense spends more time watching defenders get past them than actually making tackles. Just to give you an idea of how bad their defense has been, the Rams have only attempted 12 punt returns this year in seven games. They go to Detroit this week in what is probably their best chance to win a game, good luck guys, you'll need it.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
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