Wednesday, October 28, 2009
NFL Power Ranking Through Week 7
1. Indianapolis Colts 6-0 - The Colts are a juggernaut right now. They haven't had their second best receiver all season and it looks like their best may now miss some time, but it just does not matter. They haven't even run the ball that well yet, but Peyton looks better than ever and the defense has been spectacular. This team looks poised to coast into the playoffs and probably has not even peaked yet.
2. New Orleans Saints 6-0 - Steamrolling the Giants was impressive, but not as impressive as the comeback this week against Miami. They basically showed that they can totally take a half off and still beat a competent team with ease. The difference with the Saints this year is that they're running the ball better than ever and the defense has been good enough. The Saints have been playing like the Colts did in the early/middle part of this decade when they just overwhelmed with offense. But the Colts did not win the Superbowl until the defense starting carrying their wait, this might be that season for the Saints.
The Serious Contenders
3. Minnesota Vikings 6-1 - I know they lost this week but I watched a lot of that game, and they were the better team. Pittsburgh is very good, but Minnesota is better and sometimes the best team doesn't win. These guys can beat you in multiple ways on offense and although their defense has been O.K. I think they are capable of playing better. One worry is the loss of standout corner Antoine Winfield for the next month or so. He will be missed but Minnesota should have enough pieces to survive. Next week's game in Green Bay will be a good test of how good they are.
4. Denver Broncos 6-0 - Do I really trust them? No, not really, but it is impossible to ignore what that defense has done, and Orton is the right quarterback to have if the defense can really hold oppositions under 15 points a game. Over the next 5 weeks they four good teams and at the end of that stretch we should know for sure just how for real they are.
5. New York Giants 5-2 - The loss to New Orleans on the road was forgivable, the loss at home to Arizona is a bit more worrying and their schedule doesn't get much easier in the coming weeks. Still, there is a lot of talent here and the defense certainly hasn't played up to expectations just yet. As Manning continues to develop some chemistry with his young receivers, the offense should be a real asset.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2 - Pittsburgh has been shaky all season but they go into a needed bye week at 5-2. The timing couldn't be better as they face Denver and Cincinnati out of the gate. I think the week off will help them drastically and allow them to settle back into their normal game-plan. Mendenhall's emergence should stimulate the stagnant running game and their defense had one of their better efforts this week against Minnesota even though they were lucky to come out with a victory.
How Good Are We Really?
7. New England Patriots 5-2 - They're coming off two blowout wins but both were to but were to awful teams. Maybe those two games gave them the confidence they had been lacking and maybe Brady has truly righted himself completely and is about to go on another insane run, but it is impossible to know whether or not they were simply taking advantage of the circumstances. They have a bye this week, and then play the Saints and Colts in two of their next four games. If they come out of that four game stretch with a 3-1 or better they become serious Super Bowl contenders.
8. Cincinnati 5-2 - Coming off their most impressive win of the season, a blowout of Chicago, the Bengals are starting to have some passengers on the bandwagon. Palmer finally looks healthy, Ochocinco is happy and Benson seems to fit in nicely. The defense has also been consistently good. However, they are the Bengals and there is just such a long track record with not just this team, but this group of players as well, of failure that it is hard to trust them just yet. They get the Ravens and Steelers after this weeks bye, and after that they have three straight easy games. If they can split those first two, you are looking at a 9-3 team with a playoff berth all bug locked up.
Maybe If Everything Goes Juuuuuust Right
9. Dallas 4-2 - Look, for all the turmoil, they're sitting at 4-2 and just crushed a pretty good Atlanta team. Who among all active QB's has the highest yards per attempt average for their career? None other than Mr. Tony Romo. Oh, and who has the third highest passer rating for their career EVER? Tony Romo. Everyone needs to get off of his back, the guy is a really good player. The Cowboys can also run the ball really well and their defense has been great. This is a dangerous team now that Romo has found another target he trusts in Miles Austin.
10. Green Bay 4-2 - They have had an easy schedule, but I'm a bit Rodgers fan and the defense is good. Their achilles heel is their offense line. They have been completely unable to protect Rodgers or open up any holes for Ryan Grant thus far. I'm expecting them to figure it out at least a little bit from here on out, but it is certainly possible that isn't the case and Rodgers ends up needing to be carried off the field in the near future. They are at home against Minnesota this week in what should be one of the feature games of week 8.
11. Arizona Cardinals 4-2 - So many things broke right for Arizona last year, leading to an improbable Superbowl run. Some things remain the same, they still can't run the ball effectively and the passing game is great, although not quite as explosive as last year so far. However, their defensive effort this season has been a huge improvement, particularly against the run. Week 7's win against the Giants was a big surprise and now they're about to start a stretch of 5 straight games they should win. If they take care of business and build up momentum over that stretch, expect them to go well up this board.
12. Atlanta 4-2 - They're not running the ball effectively at all right now, but the passing game is strong as Ryan seems to have developed some early chemistry with Tony Gonzalez. They are a bit undersized on defense and got pushed around by both Dallas and New England, the only two good teams they have played so far. However, on the whole I think their offense is more likely to get better than worse at this point and there are not a ton of teams that can take full advantage of their defense shortcomings.
13. Houston 4-3 - Houston's passing game is one of the best in the league and while they have struggled to run the ball, that side of the offense has looked better lately. Sure their defense will occasionally lay an egg but they have a lot of weapons that teams have to deal with. Other than having to play the Colts twice before the season is over, they have a pretty easily schedule from here on out as well, and just like the Cardinals last year, no one will want to play them in the playoffs if they get hot.
14. Baltimore 3-3 - This is the most dynamic offense Baltimore has had since they became the Ravens. Flacco has improved drastically since last season and Rice is starting to look like a top running back. However, the defense is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, particularly against the pass. It's not a bad defense, but those days when teams dreaded playing Baltimore are over. The defense is still good enough to get this team into the playoffs, and possibly deep, but they have got to play better from here on out.
15. NY Jets 4-3 - It may not be a huge stretch to say they have lost their most important player on offense and defense to injury for the season when Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington went down in back to back weeks. They have an important game against Miami this week before heading into a needed bye. Every week more cracks in the dam seem to appear on defense and Sanchez clearly could use a week to catch his breath. The adjustments they make during that off-week will ultimately decide their fate, but they still have a good shot at making the playoffs.
16. San Diego 3-3 - The Chargers have dug themselves out of deep holes before but they have not beat a good team yet this year and with Denver pulling away making the playoffs is going to be a lot tougher this year. Norv Turner still looks like a borderline competent coach and LDT is not getting any younger. The passing attack remains extremely potent but is any other aspect of their game really above average at this point? They have essentially 4 free wins left on their schedule, but will need to take care of business in each of those games and probably go 3-3 in the harder games to make the playoffs.
17. Chicago 3-3 - The Bears blowout loss to Cincinnati exposed how flawed they are on both sides of the ball. The defense has really only had one good game, week 2 against the Steelers, and the offense has been shockingly inconsistent all year. Cutler is making far too many mistakes with the ball and Matt Forte has been stuck in neutral all year. The talent is there to improve drastically and maybe this past week will be a wake up call but right now the Bears chances at the post-season look grim.
18. Philadelphia 4-2 - The Eagles have beaten Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Washington. They lost to Oakland and got blown out by New Orleans. Essentially they have played one team that was not part of the dregs of the league and got blown out. The best thing they have going for them is that they are 4-2, but for the remainder of their schedule they only play two teams currently ranked below them on this list. If they continue to play at their current level, expect a massive nose-dive in the coming weeks, and Westbrook's injury is not going to help either.
Just Not that Good at All Really
19. San Francisco 3-3 - The Niners actually do a lot of things well and I am anxious to see if Alex Smith can turn himself into a worthwhile player after being completely forgotten about. The defense is slowly figuring it out and now with Crabtree signed there are some real weapons on offense to work with. This is definitely a team on the upswing, but they're not there yet. The only way they could really go on an extended run and be playoff contenders is if Smith suddenly plays like a Pro Bowler and that's a lofty expectation for someone who was considered one of the biggest busts in draft history a couple days ago.
20. Miami 2-4 - The Dolphins have really only had one cupcake game all season and have consistently been competitive all year. However, the biggest problem remains that the defense is completely unable to get off the field in key situations. As a result, they simply cannot hold the lead, even with their excellent power running game. Chad Henne has shown signs that he is a legit NFL quarterback, a really good sign for Miami's future, but he is not ready to start winning games on his own yet which they need because of that defense. Miami is a solid team but they just cannot go very far with such deficiencies on one side of the ball.
21. Seattle 2-4 - They are actually 2-1 with Hasselbeck healthy, but lost badly to the only good team they played in that stretch, and the chances of Hasselbeck staying healthy for the rest of the season are just not that good. The defense has played well, but the passing game just cannot seem to get going and the running game continues to be a mess ever since Shaun Alexander lost it. Seattle probably needs a complete roster overhaul but as long as they play in the terrible NFC West the playoffs always seem attainable so I can understand why they keep trying with temporary solutions.
22. Jacksonville 3-3 - This is another team with a solid record, but only one of their wins came against a solid team (Houston who was actually scuffling at the time) and just barely squeaked by the lowly Rams a week after getting blown out Seattle. They don't play good defense and David Garrard just looks scared throwing the football right now. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing well right now and Mike Sims-Walker is emerging as a real receiving threat but they need a lot of help if this team is going anywhere.
23. Carolina 2-4 - Carolina has been a very bad team because of only one reason really. Their play out of the quarterback position has been absolutely abysmal. I was never a Jake Del Homme fan even when he was having success because he just seem to be careless with his throws, but now it is finally coming back to hurt him. It is unfortunate because they have such a great running attack and decent enough defense, but the quarterback has just been killing them all-season. It is time for this franchise to move onto a new quarterback (apparently Matt Moore) and see if that can fix their problems.
24 Buffalo 3-4 - Another team that really is not that bad except they do not have an NFL quality quarterback. Trent Edwards plays like a deer in the headlights, refusing to take any risks with the ball and checking down to his running backs far too often. Amazingly he still has managed to throw 6 INTs in 5 anyway! Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long-term answer either but he is a clear upgrade at this point. Their defense is better than people realize and the running game is fine when they give the ball to Fred Jackson instead of the useless Marshawn Lynch so there are reasons for optimism at least.
Barely Able to be Called Football Teams
25 Detroit 1-5 - The Lions have two positive things going for them: Calvin Johnson is a really good football and someday Matt Stafford might be. Shockingly, that was all it took to be considered better than 7 other teams; such is the state of the NFL this year. To be fair, Kevin Smith actually seems like a capable running back as well, but the offensive line is still poor and the defense is just bad across the board, still a long way to go in Detroit.
26 Washington 2-5 - The soap opera continues for the league perennial underachiever. The defense is solid, but the offense has been so completely inept in every way it is hard to see them beating anybody. They may have two wins but have played by far the easiest schedule in the NFL and until they play the Raiders in week 14 I don't really see an opponent I would expect them to beat.
27 Kansas City 1-6 - Larry Johnson is the kind of player you tolerate when he is average 4.5 yards per carry and among the league leaders in touchdowns. When you are in the midst of a rebuilding project and he's bad mouthing the coach and organization on a National stage while average 2.7 YPC, it is time to send him packing. Jamaal Charles has the potential to be an explosive playmaker and the Matt Cassell/Dwayne Bowe combo has shown flashes as well. However this team remains a very long way from even being competitive.
28 Tennessee 0-6 - Quite a tumble for last year's Superbowl contenders and it is actually hard to figure out why. They had some tough games to start the season and then just seemingly completely quit. They have been so bad that it only took 6 games for the longest tenured coach in the league, Jeff Fisher, to go from coach of the year candidate to the hot seat. The defense is mostly to blame but the Titans' passing attack has been almost non-existent. It looks like Vince Young might get another chance soon, not sure that's a good thing.
29 Oakland 2-5 - I'm not sure there is anything nice to say about Oakland. They were lucky to beat Kansas City in week two and I still have no idea how they beat Philadelphia. In the last 5 weeks this team is 1-4 and the margins by which they lost those 4 games are: 20, 23, 36, 38; that is shockingly non-competitive. The defense has a couple of individuals who can play but they are surrounded by players who have almost no business being in the league and the offense is completely hopeless, particularly with Darren McFadden hurt.
30 Cleveland 1-6 - Starting QB Derek Anderson has a QB rating of 40.6 and Eric Mangini still thinks he is the best option they have, that's usually not a good sign. In fact their best player on offense, Mohamed Massaquoi is actually an undrafted rookie free agent. Their top two running backs have combined to average 3.5 YPC and their QB's are average 4.72 yards per pass attempt while being intercepted 11 times. That's an offense that is completely hopeless in every way.
31 Tampa Bay 0-7 - This once proud franchise has lost to Buffalo, Carolina and Washington among others. They can actually run the ball a little bit but because their passing game and defense are so horrible they are usually losing by double digits before the half and have to abandon the run. They appear to consider Josh Freeman their QB of the future but are seemingly reluctant to play him because getting experience in this environment could not possibly help. Tampa Bay was expected to be bad as they are obviously in a rebuilding phase, but I don't think anyone thought they would be this atrocious.
32 St. Louis 0-7 - Where to start? They have scored the fewest points in football (60) while allowing the most (211). They've actually run the ball fairly well as Jackson is over 600 yards, but has yet to reach the end zone. Their quarterbacks seem to spend more time dodging pass-rushers than throwing the ball and their defense spends more time watching defenders get past them than actually making tackles. Just to give you an idea of how bad their defense has been, the Rams have only attempted 12 punt returns this year in seven games. They go to Detroit this week in what is probably their best chance to win a game, good luck guys, you'll need it.
Friday, October 23, 2009
2009-2010 NBA Projected Standings
Eastern Conference
1. Orlando 63-19: I actually think Carter is an upgrade on Turkoglu, plus a full season from Nelson couldn't hurt either.
2. Cleveland 58-24: Jamario Moon may be just as important an addition as Shaq, definitely James' deepest supporting cast ever.
3. Boston 56-26: Don't really trust Garnett's health or Wallace head, and everyone else is one year older, but still just so much talent.
4. Chicago 47-35: Salmons and Miller seem like real good fits, and there's plenty of guys to pick up the slack left by Gordon's departure.
5. Miami 45-37: But if Wade gets hurt they are a lottery team. If O'Neal can contribute much of anything they'll be dangerous.
6. Atlanta 44-38: There's enough talent on this roster to win 50, but they've under achieved the last couple of years.
7. Philadelphia 43-39: Remember last year when everyone thought Philly would be good? It happens this year with a healthy Brand.
8. Toronto 40-42: Another team that seems too talented to not be better, but last year is hard too forget.
9. Washington 39-43: I actually expect a good year from Arenas, but never believed the big 3 in D.C. was that special, and they all have long injury histories.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 36-46: Diaw seems like a good fit, but this is a shallow roster with a couple big injury risks.
11. Detroit Pistons 35-47: Neither Gordon nor Villanueva made much sense to me, Detroit probably needs to tear it down and rebuild.
12. New York 32-50: They're just biding their time until the 2010 free agents hit the market.
13. New Jersey 28-54: Lopez and Harris are a nice inside outside combo, but Yi might be their 3rd best player... yikes.
14. Indiana 23-59: This team should just be called Danny Granger and the forgettables.
15. Milwaukee 18-64: There really is not a whole lot of reason for optimism now or in Milwaukee's future.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio 61-21: I was on the bandwagon when they got Jefferson and McDyess, then moved to the front row when they drafted Blair.
2. LA Lakers 58-24: There's a lot of personalities on this roster, but also far too much talent not to have a great season.
3. Utah 50-32: Big dropoff after the top 2, but a healthy Boozer should allow Utah to coast into the playoffs.
4. New Orleans 46-36: Okafor should contribute more than Chandler, but the subtle loss of Butler and Pargo the year before has hurt them more than most realize.
5. Denver 45-37: A great season last year, but I see them coming back to Earth just a little bit, don't expect full seasons from Nene and Martin again.
6. Dallas 43-39: Don't really think all the parts fit together particularly well here but again, enough talent that it shouldn't matter.
6. Houston 43-39: No Yao for the season and you can't expect more than 50 games from McGrady, but Houston always seems to find a way.
8. Portland 42-40: Hated the Miller signing, but I'm expecting a better year from Oden and this is still probably the deepest roster in basketball.
8. LA Clippers 42-40: +Griffin, - Randolph. That's such a huge difference almost nothing else matters, but expect Thornton and Gordon to continue to improve as well.
10. Phoenix 41-41: Cranky Stoudemire coming off an injury, aging Nash and Hill... they're really going to have to fight to get in the playoffs this year.
11. Golden State 38-44: This team is in desperate need of addition by subtraction, find a way to get rid of Jackson, Maggette, Nelson, Cohan and let the kids blossom.
12. Oklahoma City 37-45: Bound to be one of the most exciting teams this year, I think they're still a year away from being taken seriously.
13. Memphis 31-51: I just feel bad for Lionel Hollings, this is not going to be an easy year for him.
14. Minnesota 27-55: I think the Jefferson/Love frontcourt is going to be great but I'm not sold at all on the guards.
15. Sacramento 19-63: Didn't think Evans was the right pick, they now have 3 combo guards and their best player starts at the two already... curious to see if Hawes continues to improve.
Friday, October 16, 2009
The All-1800s Baseball Team
C - Buck Ewing
Most of the information we still have about Ewing talks about his superb defensive abilities, particularly his throwing arm. It's hard see just how much credit we can put into those reports, but Ewing was one of the first 19th century players put in the Hall of Fame, and his hitting stats were superb for anyone, not just a catcher. Ewing is one of the most obvious choices on this team, he really seems to stand head and shoulders above all his contemporaries.
1B - Cap Anson
One of the least likable guys baseball history, but maybe the most important player ever. Anson built one of the first truly great teams in baseball history, the 1870s-80s Chicago Cubs. Anson was by far the best at this time of identifying and acquiring talent. He forced the other teams in the league to improve or get run over. Even without that influence, he would win this roster spot purely on his hitting abilities. He's still among the all-time leaders in hits, runs and RBI even though for most of his career teams didn't play 100 games in a season.
2B - Hardy Richardson
I'm just barely taking Richardson over Bid Mcphee and Cupid Childs. All three have very good defensive reputations and in my opinion, Richardson was the best hitter. Childs' numbers look more impressive but he played in a much friendlier environment. Richardson played most of his career for a pretty terrible Buffalo franchise but found success later on when he moved to Detroit, posting the league's best record in 1887. In the 1800s second base was more of an offensive position, sort of like third base is now, and Richardson was an excellent hitter with power.
3B - John McGraw
McGraw is now mostly known as being one of the most successful managers ever, but he was also a spectacular player. There are very few third baseman who put up impressive offensive numbers from this era, making McGraw's 334/466/410 slash line pop out even more. After turning 20, the lowest OBP he ever posted as .422. He had almost no power (even for his era) but was a fine baserunner, stealing over 400 bags in his career. I also think that because he proved to be such a great manager, having his presence on the bench would go a long way to help this team.
SS - Hughie Jennings
I'm taking Jennings over Jack Glasscock and George Davis because he has the best defensive reputation of the group and a lot Davis' hitting value came after 1900. Jennings was a colorful character who was well liked by his teammates and has the odd distinction of being hit by more pitches than anyone else in history. All of the 1800s shortstops were immediately overshadowed because Honus Wagner came along a few years later and pretty much blew all of them out of the water, but Jennings had a run of about 5 seasons where he was one of the most valuable players in the league.
LF - Ed Delahanty
He played a little bit after 1900, but the next best option here, Jesse Burkett played even more after the turn of the century, and Jim O'Rourke was never the dominant force Big Ed was. Delahanty had four brothers who played in the majors but none of them could hold a candle to Ed. Delahanty was one of the league's first legitimate power threats, leading the league in slugging five times, and breaking 100 RBI seven times.
CF - Billy Hamilton
Not many men were born to be leadoff hitters, but Hamilton was. A lightning fast player who once averaged 147 runs scored per season over a nine year stretch. He had five seasons of over 95 steals and five seasons with 100+ walks. He also had a career batting average of .344. There is very little literature written about Hamilton, which is curious considering how phenomenal his numbers are. My guess is that Hamilton was probably a very quiet person and able to hide in relative anonymity in what was at the time a sea of almost cartoon-character like personalities.
RF - King Kelly
I am not even going to attempt to summarize Kelly as a man or a player because he was so beloved in his time that it would be difficult to believe anything written about him. Assigning him to right field is the best guess anyone can come up with because he played every position on the diamond, often moving around during games to wherever he pleased. Although most of the imagery we have of him now is that of a chain-smoker who despite being the highest paid player in the league was poor when he died at the age of 36 because he spent every dime he had on women, his wardrobe and whiskey. Even with all of the insanity that surrounded Kelly the man, he actually did manage to have a very successful playing career. He led the league in runs scored several times and even though there are no stolen base records for most of his career he was regarded as the best base runner of his era. I think of Kelly the ball player as a super-utility type player who just happened to be one of the best hitters in the league.
DH - Dan Brouthers
I know there was no DH back then but Brouthers has to be on this team somewhere and unfortunately for him he played the same position as Anson. Brouthers was a giant man by the standards of the day, standing well over six feet and weighing over 200 pounds. Brouthers led the league in OPS for six straight seasons during the 1880s and finished his career with a 170 OPS+. If Brouthers was not the best pure hitter of the 1800s he was easily in the top three.
P - Kid Nichols
Although he pitched into the 1900s, Nichols' best years came in the 1890s. From 1890-1899 Nichols' average year was 30-15, 400 IP, 2.97. Basically, you could split those numbers in half and have two great seasons. A very small man with a whip for an arm, Nichols was one of the hardest throwers around and generally only through a fastball. It is perhaps because of this that he was able to lead the league in total batters face seven times.
P - Charley Radbourn
Old Hoss had probably the greatest single season ever by a baseball player in 1884 when he went 59-12 while leading the league with a 1.38 ERA over 678 innings while striking out 441 batters. While it was the only time he led the league in ERA, he did manage to rack up 309 wins in his career.
P - Tim Keefe
Most sources credit Keefe with inventing the changeup. Meaning a pitch where the pitcher uses the same arm speed but the ball comes out slower because of a change in grip. It was believed he came up with the pitch before the 1883 season and doing so turned him into one of the best pitchers in the league. Keefe did not become a regular until he was 24 (late for the time period) but cracked 300 wins before 10 years passed anyway.
P - John Clarkson
Clarkson's career really only spanned 10 seasons but he finished with a 324-178 record. He led the league in wins and strikeouts three times each, and innings four times. Early in his career Clarkson's walk numbers were exceptionally low but at 26 he started to mess around with secondary pitches and ended up among the league leaders in walks every season for the rest of his career.
P - Al Spalding
Spalding career was short by any standard, only six seasons really. But he went 253-65 in that career, the greatest winning percentage ever. While wins don't often mean much he did lead the league in ERA twice. In the 1870s the pitcher's job was not to get the batter out, but merely throw the ball over the plate so that batter could hit it onto the field. As a result, Spalding had a grand total of 142 strikeouts in a near 3000 inning career. Spalding was not one of the five best pitchers of the 1800s because he was playing a different game altogether, but his accomplishments are so unique I feel like he should be mentioned. Clearly he was doing something better than everyone else at the time, maybe he threw harder or more accurately. Whatever it was, it was significant.
With my apologies to Pud Galvin, Amos Rusie, Silver King, Tommy Bond, Bob Caruthers and Tony Mullane. Pitchers from this era really stand out because they threw so many innings. I've chosen the five I personally found the most impressive but a really good case could be made for any of these guys.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part X: Who did we miss?
Offense
The lineup had some easy choices but also a few I had to dig a bit for. The bench also came together fairly quickly although there are still plenty of great players still out there.
Starters
C Joe Torre - 131.6: Torre could really hit and had a pretty long career. He was not a standout with the glove at all but his bat was enough to carry his ACV over 130.
1B Jim Thome 146.5: Someone who probably should have been drafted, Thome is simply one of the best power hitters ever. He also has maintained his level of effectiveness for a very long time and his phenomenal career walk rate only furthers his value.
2B Charlie Gehringer 137.1: A pretty bad omission by us, Gehringer could really hit and wasn't too bad with the glove either.
3B Ron Santo 134.2: If I had control over hall of fame inductions Santo would be one of the first guys I put in. I actually expected him to rate higher. He has power, patience and was an asset in the field. A relatively short career prevents him from being among the all-time great 3B's.
SS Joe Cronin 130.8: An excellent glove man who could hit too, got derailed briefly mid career and that hurt his value but he was still a great player.
LF Gary Sheffield 148.8: The single biggest swing and miss by our group collectively. Maybe once Sheffield retires people will forget that he's a pain and realize how extraordinary of a player he was.
CF Larry Doby 137.2: The first American Leaguer to break the color barrier, just like Robinson, Doby is probably underrated as a player. He didn't have a very long career either, but did everything well.
RF Paul Waner 144.7: Big Poison was another serious miss on our parts. Waner had the misfortune of starting his career just as the home run was coming into favor. If he'd played 20 years earlier he might be considered among the best ever. Waner was a doubles machine and an asset in the field.
DH Harry Heilman 144.0 (145.0): Heilman led the league in batting four times and had plenty of power too. He was a natural with the bat but never at home in the field and that is why he is the DH instead of Thome.
Bench
C Gene Tenace 120.6: Tenace has probably the largest disparity between batting average and walk rate I know of. He's similar to Torre in that he is a hitter first and a catcher second but overall I still think he makes the most sense here.
IF Todd Helton 135.5: There might be better options here but I like Helton's combo of hitting and fielding. The numbers have been inflated by the park a bit but that doesn't change the fact that he's been a great player.
OF Larry Walker 139.8: Defense, speed, power, patience, throwing arm, he had them all.
UTIL Frankie Frish 129.3: A great baserunner and very good defender with enough power to keep hitters honest. Frisch was a very good all-around player who has been forgotten for the most part by casual fans.
UTIL Jim Edmonds 137.6: A spectacular defender, the best of this generation except for perhaps Andruw Jones in his prime. Also had a great eye and plenty of pop.
Pitching
We actually did a really good job drafting starting pitchers. No one really fell through the cracks for the most part, and the bullpen was pretty much more of the same.
SP Kevin Brown 115.6
SP Stan Coveleski 116.6
SP Red Faber 115.5
SP Ted Lyons 115.0
SP Eppa Rixey 113.5
A lot of generations and pitching styles covered here. I'm taking Rixey over Vic Willis to give myself a left-handed starter. All of these guys were essentially very good pitchers who had fairly long careers. None of them really stand out in any particular way, but that is not surprising since in the draft we took pretty much everyone who fit that mold.
RP Harry Brecheen 134.7
RP Troy Percival 121.7
RP John Hiller 129.3
RP John Wetteland 124.5
RP Tom Henke 129.5
RP Francisco Rodriguez 130.0
Brecheen is the only one of these guys who was mostly a starter, and he was a good one. His career got off to a late start, partially due to the war and as a result he was a regular until after his 28th birthday. Most of the rest of these guys were right-handed fireball closers who were dominant for at least a few seasons. Hiller fills the role of lefty-specialist and he was no stranger to the strikeout either.
Overall
While every single guy I drafted here could arguably be more useful than some guys who did make rosters, there were only a few obvious ones that fell through the cracks, particularly the corner outfielders and first baseman. I personally took Vladimir Guerrero to start over Paul Waner, Gary Sheffield and Harry Heilman... whoops.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part IX: Who Won?
Catchers
1. Johnny Bench - Dennis - 141.7
2. Mike Piazza - Jimmy - 141.5
3. Yogi Berra - Anthony - 136.4
4. Mickey Cochrane - Andy - 136.4
5. Roy Campanella - Brian - 133.4
6. Ivan Rodriguez - Adam - 127.8
Bench is the obvious choice for best catcher ever and ACV agrees. Piazza however, it extremely close based on his vastly superior hitting ability and passable defense. Campy's inconsistencies and Pudge's awful OBP bring them down to the bottom of this group.
First Baseman
1. Lou Gehrig - Andy - 169.7
2. Jimmie Foxx - Jimmy - 160.8
3. Albert Pujols - Adam - 146.3
4. Hank Greenberg - Dennis - 143.6
5. Willie McCovey - Brian - 140.1
6. Pete Rose - Anthony - 132.0
Again first place is obvious and in this case second is as well. Pujols' third place performance is pretty incredible considering he's probably only halfway through his career. If the second half is anywhere near as good as the first he'll top this list when he's done. Rose's lack of power and only average OBP drops him behind the pack.
Second Baseman
1. Rogers Hornsby - Andy - 160.2
2. Eddie Collins - Jimmy - 159.7
3. Napoleon Lajoie - Adam - 155.6
4. Jackie Robinson - Brian - 140.8
5. Joe Morgan - Anthony - 138.2
6. Roberto Alomar - Dennis - 128.4
Hornsby poor defense and surly attitude are not enough to knock him from the top spot. Robinson jumped ahead of Morgan after being credited with some time missed due to the color barrier. Lajoie rates surprisingly well, he could really hit and wasn' too bad with the glove either. Alomar really wasn't in the same league as these guys and ACV shows that.
Third Baseman
1. Mike Schmidt - Jimmy - 153.4
2. George Brett - Dennis - 144.9
3. Eddie Mathews - Andy - 142.2
4. Harmon Killebew - Brian - 137.5
5. Cal Ripken Jr. - Adam - 123.5
6. Brooks Robinson - Anthony - 118.2
The top three were fairly obvious although I expected Brett to be closer to Schmidt than to Mathews. Killebrew's powerful offense and awful glove appear to be better overall than Robinson's lack of offense and gold glove. For all of the credit Ripken was given, he really was not that exceptional of a hitter and I think his rating is appropriate.
Shortstop
1. Honus Wanger - Jimmy - 170.6
2. Alex Rodriguez - Brian - 145.2
3. Barry Larkin - Andy - 130.6
4. Ernie Banks - Dennis - 125.0
5. Derek Jeter - Adam - 123.9
6. Ozzie Smith - Anthony - 111.2
This simply illustrates the greatness of Honus Wagner who is arguably the greatest all-around player ever. A-Rod is head and shoulders above everyone else; I think many would be surprised by Larkin ranking ahead of Banks and Jeter. He ranks ahead of Jeter almost completely because of the difference in defense between them. He is ahead of Banks also because of defense, and Banks' OBP really hurts him. Ozzie Smith was incredible with the glove but was a well below league average hitter for his career and now amount of glovework can make up for that when being compared to all-time greats.
Left Field
1. Barry Bonds - Brian - 191.1
2. Stan Musial - Jimmy - 171.5
3. Hank Aaron - Anthony - 170.9
4. Rickey Henderson - Adam - 139.0
5. Carl Yastrzemski - Andy - 138.8
6. Al Simmons - Dennis - 136.4
Three all-timers here... similar to Hornsby, Bonds' attitude is not enough to bring him down that much and unlike Hornsby he played very good defense. The second three were all very different players playing in completely different eras but rate pretty close to evenly.
Center Field
1. Willie Mays - Dennis - 177.3
2. Tris Speaker - Andy - 176.0
3. Mickey Mantle - Brian - 173.0
4. Ken Griffey Jr. - Adam - 149.5
5. Duke Snider - Anthony - 140.5
6. Earl Averill - Jimmy - 136.8
The deepest position in all of baseball, is still impressive despite Cobb and Dimaggio being drafted for other positions. Perhaps the only surprise of this group is just how highly Speaker rates, but I think that is mostly a product of just how amazing of a player he was getting lost to time a bit.
Right Field
1. Ty Cobb - Dennis - 181.0
2. Frank Robinson - Anthony - 158.6
3. Mel Ott - Andy - 155.0
4. Joe Jackson - Brian - 141.2
5. Dave Winfield - Adam - 139.9
6. Vladimir Guerrero - Jimmy - 139.2
With Babe playing DH, the out of position Cobb is easily the best person playing right-field. Joe Jackson had just barely over half a career and Vladimir Guerrero probably still has some production left, but they both compare pretty well to Dave Winfield who played much longer.
Designated Hitter
1. Babe Ruth - Anthony - 195.6 (197.6)
2. Ted Williams - Adam - 186.0 (189.0)
3. Frank Thomas - Jimmy - 148.0 (148.0)
4. Joe Dimaggio - Dennis 146.0 (161.0)
5. Manny Ramirez - Brian - 141.1 (142.1)
6. Willie Stargell - Andy - 136.4 (138.4)
The numbers in parenthesis are what their values would be if defense was a factor. Ruth and Williams are two of the best hitters ever and rate as such. Thomas, purely as a hitter was a better player than Dimaggio but clearly Dimaggio was better all around. Ramirez and Stargell were both great hitters, but I think it is fair that Ramirez rates just a bit higher.
Backup Catcher
1. Gabby Hartnett - Dennis - 139.9
2. Bill Dickey - Jimmy - 138.0
3. Gary Carter - Brian - 132.5
4. Carlton Fisk - Andy - 130.8
5. Craig Biggio - Adam - 124.8
6. Thurman Munson - Anthony - 122.4
Hartnett and Dickey rate higher than all the starting catchers except Bench and Piazza, including Berra. This really surprised me. Is it possible Berra has become overrated in time because he was so likable and played for so many World Series Champions? Is it also possible that Hartnett became underrated playing for Cubs teams that never really won anything and Dickey got overshadowed by Berra who had so many more Championships? Sure it's possible, I don't know if it is true or not but my system objectively rates both of them better than Berra. Everyone else seems to fit in where they are expected to be.
Backup IF
1. Jeff Bagwell - Jimmy - 147.5
2. Mark McGwire - Brian -142.6
3. Rafael Palmeiro - Dennis - 137.1
3. Chipper Jones - Anthony - 137.1
5. Lou Boudreau - Adam - 129.1
6. Ryne Sandberg - Andy - 125.3
The slugging corner infielders rate higher than the slick fielding up the middle players here. Bagwell, like Thomas, has become underrated in history very quickly. Both of these players were the best hitters in their leagues in their primes. Jones will probably end up close to Mark McGwire by the end of his career. While the middle infielders do not score as highly, their versatility will come in handy during the overall team scores for reasons that will be explained later.
Backup Outfield
1. Sam Crawford - Jimmy - 145.8
2. Dick Allen - Brian - 138.1
3. Roberto Clemente - Dennis - 132.5
4. Tony Gwynn - Adam - 132.5
5. Hack Wilson - Anthony - 127.4
6. Dale Murphy - Andy - 122.8
Crawford was one of the games first great power hitters and Allen could really mash as well. Clemente has been overrated in history for many reasons, but the fact remains that he was a free swinger who did not actually have much power or range in the field. Still an all-time great but I feel his ranking is appropriate. Wilson's career was not long enough and Murphy's not exceptional enough to quite keep up with the others listed here.
Backup Util
1. Johnny Mize - Brian - 149.7
2. Arky Vaughan - Jimmy - 144.1
3. Al Kaline - Dennis - 138.7
4. Eddie Murray - Adam - 136.0
5. Wade Boggs - Andy - 134.6
6. Robin Yount - Anthony - 128.4
At the top we have two of the most underrated players in history. Mize was a sensational hitter who lost time due to the war and got lost in the shuffle a bit because there were so many other great players in his era. Vaughan ranks just behind Rodriguez as the third best shortstop ever; he was an on-base machine who was also among the best defensive shortstops in baseball. The other 4 here all had long, effective careers, Murray is often referred to as a compiler, but Yount certainly falls into this category as well.
Backup Util 2
1. Rod Carew - Anthony - 134.0
2. Tim Raines - Jimmy - 129.9
3. Paul Molitor - Andy - 129.3
4. Ichiro Suzuki - Dennis - 126.3
5. Dom Dimaggio - Adam - 124.3
6. Phil Rizzuto - Brian - 115.0
Holy Cow! Leadoff hitters everywhere! I thought Raines would rank higher, but my system sees Carew as the better player. Ichiro was credited with time spent in the Japanese leagues but still has a ways to go before he catches the top people on this list. The bottom two defensive specialists who were not great hitters (sorry uncle Phil) but both are also valuable guys to have on a roster.
Overall Offensive Score
1. Jimmy - 152.1
2. Brian - 147.7
3. Andy - 147.2
4. Dennis - 145.5
5. Anthony - 143.2
6. Adam - 142.1
I want to take a moment to touch on one thing that I think particularly hurt Anthony's score. Anthony drafted the best defensive shortstop ever and the best defensive third baseman ever. However, Ozzie Smith was a very poor hitter and Brooks Robinson was basically league average with the bat. These two are both great players, and worthy hall of famers, but when talking about the best ever they simply do not quite stand up to players who were great with both the bat and the glove. I can't help but think Anthony would have been better off drafting Arky Vaughan and Ron Santo who were both gold-glove caliber guys and could also hit.
Adam ranks last partially because I believe he drafted some modern players (Pujols, Winfield, Pudge, Ripken, Jeter for example) when there were some historical players who rated better contextually. Perhaps underrating modern players is a flaw in my system, but Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux all scored exceptionally high. I think Pujols will too, and soon, but the other guys simply were not quite as good as many of the others drafted.
I believe my team came in first becuase of the consistency I had across the board. No starter scored lower on my team than 136.8 and no bench player was lower than 129.9. Every other team had at least one starter below 135 and one bench player below 127. I also had the top ranked shortstop and third baseman ever, along with the second ranked catcher, first baseman, second baseman and left fielder. I was also the last player to draft a center fielder and right fielder (by design) because I knew there were more good options there available late than at catcher, middle infield or even third base.
Brian's team had serious power and was one of only two teams with multiple players rated at over 170 (mine being the other). Bonds really helped push him to second place. He also was able to avoid having any truly down areas in his lineup. His weakest scores being at catcher and third base, and neither of those was even the low at that position.
Andy and Dennis scored in the middle of that pack. Andy made a lot of very solid picks and getting Speaker when he did was a huge boost. I think the biggest reason he did not rank higher was taking a pitcher first overall, but considering that his team is very solid. Dennis drafted bench players before he finished his starting lineup and that hurt him because bench players do not count for as much. Also drafting Dimaggio so early to play at DH came back to haunt him a bit when some players taken many rounds later ranked higher because Joe D could not be given credit for his fielding; otherwise I think he drafted a very strong team and his solid rating notwithstanding is proof of that.
SP 1
1. Walter Johnson - Andy - 155.6
2. Cy Young - Anthony - 141.8
3. Lefty Grove - Jimmy - 137.8
4. Christy Mathewson - Dennis - 133.5
5. Pedro Martinez - Adam - 130.5
6. Sandy Koufax - Brian - 114.4
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Sandy Koufax's career was not that special. Pedro Martinez is often compared to Koufax but as we can see here (and rightly in my opinion) he has already surpassed Koufax by a significant margin. Walter Johnson is sort of on his own planet among pitchers, again justifiably I feel. Even only giving Cy Young partial credit for his pre-1900 seasons he rates ahead of Grove thanks mostly to the incredible length of his career.
SP 2
1. Pete Alexander - Anthony - 141.4
2. Roger Clemens - Jimmy - 139.3
3. Greg Maddux - Dennis - 132.1
4. Randy Johnson - Brian - 129.8
5. Warren Spahn - Andy - 118.5
6. Steve Carlton - Adam - 115.7
The bottom two rate where they do mostly because they played past their primes and hurt their rate stats. It is a harsh reality of this rating system that this does negatively effect their rating, but it also cannot be denied that these players negatively hurt their teams by hanging around that long also. Clemens' career has always been more impressive than Maddux's, this rating is based purely on statistics not whether I think they cheated to get those statistics, so you can certainly make the case that Maddux had a better career if you take that angle. I always thought of Alexander as a top 5 pitcher all time and rates essentially tied with Young for second in ACV.
SP 3
1. Ed Walsh - Dennis - 127.3
2. Tom Seaver - Anthony - 125.8
3. Three Finger Brown - Jimmy - 124.1
4. Bob Gibson - Adam - 121.0
5. Gaylord Perry - Andy - 118.2
6. Nolan Ryan - Brain - 111.1
I was expecting Seaver to rate much higher than this. I certainly expected him to be over 130. However the second half of his career was only very good as opposed to exceptional. Nonetheless I feel like my system might be selling him a bit short. Walsh and Brown were basically the first two superstar pitchers of the 20th century and I'm not particularly surprised by either of their ratings. Nolan Ryan is probably one of the most overrated pitchers ever; even though he struck out a ton of people he walked way more than anyone ever and his ERA's were never particularly special.
SP 4
1. Carl Hubbell - Andy - 122.1
2. Jim Palmer - Jimmy - 120.5
3. Bert Blyleven - Brian - 117.9
4. Juan Marichal - Adam - 116.1
5. Johan Santana - Anthony - 114.7
6. Don Sutton - Dennis - 108.5
If Johan Santana retired right now his career would be basically the equivalent of Sandy Koufax's and if you look at the stats objectively that makes sense. Don Sutton benefited more from the environment he played in probably more than any other pitcher in the 20th century and his low score reflects that. Hubbell had a sneaky good career that was not as short as most people would believe.
SP 5
1. Whitey Ford - Jimmy - 120.9
2. Bob Feller - Anthony - 119.5
3. Mike Mussina - Dennis - 116.4
4. Phil Niekro - Andy - 116.2
5. Tom Glavine - Adam - 115.9
6. Roy Halladay - Brian - 113.0
There is a perception that Ford's exception W-L numbers were bloated by the teams he played on, and while this is partially true, he was a hell of a pitcher. I was curious whether Mussina and Glavine would find a spot on any of these teams, I look at them as the past generations top two second-tier pitchers and as can be seen they compare pretty well to many other generation's upper echelon guys. Halladay has not quite pitched enough innings to catch them yet, though he probably will before he is done.
Closer
1. Mariano Rivera - Adam - 173.1
2. Hoyt Wilhelm - Jimmy - 149.1
3. Goose Gossage - Andy - 137.5
4. Trevor Hoffman - Anthony - 132.5
5. Dennis Eckersley - Anthony - 129.8
6. Joe Nathan - Dennis - 125.4
As if we needed another way to prove how great Mariano Rivera is... I always thought Wilhelm was underrated in history and ACV believes he was a truly exceptional pitcher. Eckersley's peak was not very long and Nathan's career is not actually that long either so they both rate below the others listed here.
Setup Man
1. Addie Joss - Dennis - 145.2
2. Billy Wagner - Jimmy - 144.8
3. Rube Waddell - Andy - 138.8
4. Curt Schilling - Brian - 134.1
5. John Smoltz - Adam - 133.9
6. Bruce Sutter - Anthony - 125.0
Joss and Waddell were completely dominant pitchers who had very short careers due to injuries, moving them to the pen obviously takes advantage of their exception rate stats. Billy Wagner is shown here as being probably one of the 5 best pure relief pitchers ever, he really has had an incredible career. ACV also illustrates something here that I've believed for awhile now, Bruce Sutter's hall of fame selection was probably a mistake if you base it solely on the impact he had as a player and ignore that he innovated a new pitch.
LHRP
1. Hal Newhouser - 135.9 - Brian
2. Eddie Plank - 134.0 - Dennis
3. Billy Pierce - 129.2 - Jimmy
4. Lefty Gomez - 129.0 - Adam
5. Ron Guidry - 125.8 - Anthony
6. Sparky Lyle - 125.0 - Andy
Five of these guys were starters however most of them work as lefties out of the pen because they had an exceptional breaking pitch. Lyle is the only true reliever, but he was never a dominant guy and rates rightfully at the back of the pack. Newhouser and Plank were probably good enough to have rotation spots for some of these teams, but it is just hard to fit everybody in.
RP 1
1. Smoky Joe Wood - 141.2 - Jimmy
2. Don Drysdale - 132.8 - Brian
3. Dan Quisenberry - 132.0 - Adam
4. Dazzy Vance - 130.9 - Dennis
5. John Franco - 130.7 - Anthony
6. Rollie Fingers - 119.8 - Andy
Some repeating themes here, Wood and Vance were dominant starters with short careers who get a boost from moving to the pen. Drysdale was a pure starter who ended up here just because he wasn't quite good enough to crack a rotation. Franco and Quisenberry were two of the most effective pure relievers ever, and Fingers was not. Fingers, like Sutter, has become overrated in time because he was from the generation of closers who threw multiple innings, overlooking the fact that he actually was not quite as good as a lot of the guys who only were one inning relievers.
RP 2
1. Brandon Webb - 136.9 - Jimmy
2. Kent Tekulve - 130.6 - Anthony
3. Lee Smith - 126.6 - Brian
4. Robin Roberts - 126.2 - Andy
5. Bob Lemon - 124.2 - Dennis
6. Robb Nen - 118.1 - Adam
Who has the better ERA+, Brandon Webb or Roy Halladay? It's Webb, and by a comfortable margin (142 to 134). Now Webb has not pitched for quite as long as Halladay but this just serves to show how effective Brandon Webb has been, he has pitched six full seasons at an extremely consistent and high level. Nobody knows who Kent Tekulve is because he didn't rack up gaudy save or strikeout totals but they guy was a much better pitcher than several people in the hall of fame. Nen simply just was not exception for long enough to quite compare to these guys.
RP 3
1. Roy Oswalt - 135.2 - Brian
2. Dizzy Dean - 131.8 - Jimmy
3. Jon Papelbon - 130.2 - Dennis
4. Ferguson Jenkins - 127.0 - Andy
5. C.C. Sabathia - 124.4 - Adam
6. Tim Lincecum - 119.7 - Anthony
Roy Oswalt is Brandon Webb part two, an active pitcher who is under appreciated because we have not had time to gain perspective on his career yet. Dean is another short-career dominant pitcher type, and I guess Sabathia and Lincecum fall under that umbrella as well even though Lincecum really hasn't even had a career yet. I feel like I should go a little more in depth on Papelbon who rates very well despite having only half as many innings as even Lincecum. Papelbon has a career ERA+ of 254, 52 points higher than even Mariano Rivera because he has been a dominant pitcher since his first day in the big leagues. He is, frankly, an anomaly to baseball and thus incredibly hard to rate. I'm sort of o.k. with where he falls here. Would I rather have what Papelbon has done so far over Ferguson Jenkins' whole career? Of course not, but in the context of this experiment, his rating higher than Jenkins can be understood... at least to some degree. Besides, I don't think arbitrarily changing my formula because one outlier is messing with it makes sense.
Overall Pitching Scores
1. Jimmy - 132.1
2. Anthony - 128.2
3. Andy - 127.6
4. Dennis - 126.1
5. Adam - 125.5
6. Brian - 121.8
Working from the bottom up, it seems obvious that Brian's team was doomed when my formula spit out a higher number for Johan Santana than it did for Sandy Koufax, but like I said above, I stand by that rating. Nolan Ryan and Roy Halladay also did not help. Brian drafted a really strong pen, but because the bullpen as a whole only accounts for the equivalent of two starting pitchers it was not enough to make up the difference.
Adam similarly was hurt by probably not the best first pitcher choice in Pedro Martinez. Martinez is a fantastic pitcher, but as a whole I really cannot come up with a way that his career was more valuable than Grove or Mathewson who were drafted well after him. The selection of Steve Carlton was probably also early and although Mariano Rivera proved to be incredibly valuable, again it was not quite enough to make up for a couple of possible mistakes early in the draft.
Dennis probably took Joe Nathan a bit early and should not have taken Don Sutton at all, but I think the reason he rates fourth is mostly because he drafted more hitters early than any other team. Because he did not get around to taking pitchers until later in the draft he was always playing from behind, even so he was only 2.1 points behind the second place team. He was one of only two teams (Anthony being the other) with three starters rated over 125.
Andy took a pitcher first overall and got by far the best one in Walter Johnson. However he may have sabotaged his rotation just a bit by taking durable starters who may have hung around the game a bit too long and as a result did not post the rate stats. The low rating of Warren Spahn particularly bugs me because subjectively I feel like he should be much higher, but my formula can't ignore the 1,430 league average innings he posted after his 38th birthday. Andy also ended up with the weakest pen, again partially because he tended to lead toward quantity over quality players. It is possible my formula is not reward enough to people who rack up innings because in the real world you most likely would not be filling in for the innings not pitched with a league average pitcher but with someone worse than that. I may adjust my formula to compensate for this in the future.
Anthony gravitated toward pitching early and has the best front three starters of any team. The two biggest things that prevented him from coming out on top were probably drafting Johan Santana a bit early and a slightly soft bullpen where the highest rated player was 130.8. Anthony could have picked up a few points by sliding his more effective relievers into the closer/setup role which were more heavily weighted but that probably would not have made up enough ground, and it's not like second place is something to scoff at anyway. On paper he probably has the strongest rotation of any team, even with Santana in it.
I believe my team rated first because of depth. I had no starters that rated lower than 120 (every other team had at least two) and no relievers rated below 129 (every other team had at least one below that and most had more). While Grove/Clemens and Wilhelm/Wagner are formidable it was ending up with the best group of second tier guys that probably made the biggest difference.
Team Construction Bonuses
I am now going to rattle off all the little areas I gave people bonuses for and how many they got for each category.
Having a legitimate leadoff hitter
Everybody gets +1 except Anthony who gets +.5 (because Rose wasn't a great base stealer and his OBP wasn't high enough to make up for it)
Having a diverse righty/lefty lineup (.5 points for each transition)
Andy - +2 (+3)
Anthony - +4.5 (+5)
Brian - +4 (+5)
Dennis - +2.5 (+3.5)
Jimmy - +2 (+3)
Adam - +2 (+3)
-1 Point For Every Defensive Position Your Bench Cannot Logically Cover
Andy - -0 (+3)
Anthony - -0 (+5)
Brian - -1 for centerfield (+4)
Dennis - -3 for SS, 2B, 3B (+0.5)
Jimmy - -0 (+3)
Adam - -0 (+3)
+1 Point each for legitimate LH pinch hitter, RH pinch hitter, pinch runner, OF defensive replacement, IF defensive replacement
Andy - +4 (+8)
Anthony - +3 (+8)
Brian - +4 (+8)
Dennis - +4 (+4.5)
Jimmy - +4 (+7)
Adam - +5 (+8)
Bonus for having varied rotation handedness
Andy - +2 (+10)
Anthony - +1 (+9)
Brian - +2 (+10)
Dennis - +0 (+4.5)
Jimmy - +2 (+9)
Adam - +2 (+10)
Bonus for having more than one left-handed reliever in pen
(Everyone gets +1 except Dennis and Brian)
Bonus for variety of power/finesse pitching in both rotation and pen
(Everyone gets +2)
Andy - +13
Anthony - +12
Brian +12
Dennis +6.5
Jimmy - +12
Adam - +13
Five of the six teams were constructed almost equally well for a real life setting. Dennis appears to have often drafted the best player left on the board and trying to shoe horn them into a role, rather than the best player possible for his team. This is where the advantage of drafting a Dom Dimaggio or Phil Rizzuto type of player came into play.
THE FINAL STANDINGS
1. Jimmy 154.1
2. Andy 150.4
3. Anthony 147.7
4. Adam 146.8
4. Brian 146.8
6. Dennis 142.3
The last thing I will write about in the final installment of this project is the best players at each position that went undrafted. I plan on doing this same thing again next year (hopefully with more teams)with a different evaluation method and want to take the time to highlight some guys that probably should have been taken at some point.
Friday, October 9, 2009
The MLB All-Time Player Draft part VIII: The Analysis Method
My first thought was simply to use Bill James' now fairly well known win shares. However using career win shares did not seem logical to me because it tended to reward players who just keep playing forever significantly more than those who have short but high-impact career. I then thought of using the same method that James did in his New Historical Baseball Abstract, one of my favorite baseball books ever. But, I saw three problems with this option: 1. That's boring; 2. There are a few elements to his method that I do not completely agree with; 3. Incorporating modern players would have been tedious and difficult.
To cut to the chase a bit, I decided to must make up my own formula for evaluating players. On baseball-reference.com they post a stat for every player ever called OPS+. It is one of my favorite statistics to just quickly evaluate hitters. What it simply does is, take OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) and contextualize it. OPS+ compares a players' OPS to the league average for when they played and also factors in park effects. It then puts the number on a scale where 100 is league average. It is a great little tool to just get a general impression of a players' hitting ability compared to league average over a season or over a career.
I decided OPS+ would be the backbone from my formula, but also believed that it was too blunt even for this fun exercise. OPS+ does not take into consideration many things that are important for a real life baseball team, most importantly: playing time, defense, base-running and personality. So my goal was to create a formula that used career OPS+ and then also brought those elements into the equation, with the end result being a single easy to understand number. Here is what I did.
The Method
The first problem with OPS+ I decided to tackle was the playing time issue. Willie Mays and Dick Allen have the same career OPS+ (158) but Allen was not Mays' equal as a hitter because Allen had 7,134 plate appearances and Mays had 12,493. So, how do we figure out exactly what the difference is? I started off by setting a baseline for expected career plate appearances of superstars. The number I chose for position players was 12,000 plate appearances (but 10,000 for catchers). This number is extremely hard to reach even for the game's best ever, but some all-time players have actually gone well past 12,000.
For players who failed to reach the baseline (almost everyone) I took the amount of plate appearances they fell short (in Allen's case it is 4,866) and credited them with a league average plate appearance for each. What this means is that we have converted Allen's career into one consisting of 7,134 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 158 and 4,866 plate appearances with an OPS+ of 100. We will call this number "Career Adjusted OPS+" or "caOPS+" for short. In Allen's case his caOPS+ is 133.3. Willie Mays gets a small bonus for going over the baseline of 12,000 career plate appearances and ends up with a caOPS+ of 158.3. This is the number we will use to value a player's hitting and as is evident we have now begun to separate a super-duper star (Mays) from a truly great player (Allen) but we are not done yet.
The next thing we need to factor in is defense. I am not going to invent a new statistic for defense and decided to merely use the best tools currently at my disposal. These are John Dewan's fielding bible, Bill James' win shares and fangraphs.com's various metrics. After compiling these each player was given a letter grade for defensive ability (note that the letter grade was only applicable for the position they played, an A first baseman did not add the same value with the glove as an A shortstop, I will get to how I worked that out shortly). I assigned each letter grade a point value that would simply be added to a player's caOPS+. An A+ would be worth 10 points, an A 9, an A- 8, all the way down to a D being worth 1 and an F worth 0.
Continuing our Mays vs. Allen comparison. Mays was graded as an A+ centerfielder, Allen (who was drafted as an LF) received a B- grade. However, we all know that centerfielders have a harder job than left-fielders. Because of this I decided to weight defensive grades for more demanding positions. In continuing with my idea of quick but effective analysis my solution to this problem was simple. Depending on the position played, I multiplied the number value of the players defense (gotten from the letter grade) by a small amount. For catchers it was multiplied by 2, for shortstops it was 1.67, for centerfielders and second baseman it was 1.5 and for third baseman it was 1.33. In applying this method to Willie Mays' caOPS+ he gets a +15 (10 for being A+, multiplied by 1.5 for being a centerfielder) and his new number is 173.3. We will call this "Career Adjusted Fielding OPS+" or "cafOPS+" for short. Doing the same to Dick Allen he gets a +5 (5 for being a B- fielder, multiplied by 1.0 because he was aleft-fielder) and his cafOPS+ is 138.3.
The next problem to tackle is the element of base-running. Again I chose to go with a quick approach to evaluating base-running. Similar to defense, I simply added on a number (0-5) based on how good of a base-runner they are. A 0 would be Ernie Lombardi or Frank Thomas while a 5 would be Honus Wagner or Tim Raines. The number the player was credited with came from looking at their stolen bases, stolen base percentage, triples and a few other factors. Mays received a rating of 4, based on his leading the league in steals 4 times, stealing a good percentage and hitting many triples. Allen rates as a 2 because he was not a liability on the bases, but was not a legitimate asset either. After adding these numbers to their cafOPS+, Mays rates at 177.3 and Allen as 140.3.
At this point I was done with my pure statistical analysis of a player's career value. I call this number "Adjusted career value" or "ACV" for short. Mays' 177.3 ACV is one of the 10 highest of all-time, while Allen's 140.3 is somewhere in the range of 45th-75th best all-time among position players. I think most people would subjectively think those evaluations are fairly accurate.
For reference purposes, here is what the formula I used actually looks like when written out:
ACV = (((P*OPS+)+((bP-P)*100))/bP)+(fG*fF)+rS
ACV is Adjusted Career Value
P is Actual player's plate appearances
OPS+ is Player's career OPS+
bP is Baseline expected plate appearances
fG is Fielding grade
fF is Fielding factor
rS is Baserunning score
bP = 12,000 for all position players except catcher, for catchers bP is 10,000
fG = 10 for A+, 9 for A, 8 for A-, 7 for B+, 6 for B, 5 for B-, 4 for C+, 3 for C, 2 for C-, 1 for D, 0 for F (fG letter grades are assigned based on source of choice
fF = 2 for catchers, 1.67 for shortstops, 1.5 for centerfielders and second basemen, 1.33 for third basemen
rS = A number value of 0-5 based on subjective grading
Before I go into how pitchers were evaluated, I just want to note a few quick things. The 12,000 plate appearance baseline was used for all positions except catchers. Catchers instead were evaluated based on a 10,000 plate appearance baseline. Also players who missed time due to reasons beyond their control (due to war, segregation or whatever) were given credit for their time missed. To quote Bill James, "I think this is more fair to do, than to not do." Players who missed time were not given the equivalent of a complete season for each year they missed, but they were given a subjective amount of credit that I deemed appropriate.
The method for evaluating starting pitchers was extremely similar to that of position players. The statistic I used as the backbone for pitcher evaluations was ERA+ which does for ERA the exact same thing that OPS+ does for OPS. I then used essentially the same formula that I used for hitters, setting a baseline number (in this case innings pitched) and crediting pitchers with league average numbers for every inning they fell short of the baseline.
I will once again use two players to illustrate how this works, in this case Roger Clemens and Johan Santana, who have the same career ERA+ (143). I should note that I am merely looking at Clemens from a purely statistical standpoint and not making any adjustments for anything illegal he may have done to help his career. Santana's career obviously has not had the same amount of value as Clemens' because he has only pitched 1,709 innings compared to Clemens' 4,916.
The baseline number of innings pitched I used for starters was 5,000. Again, this is an achievable number, but not easily achievable, which is exactly what I am looking for. Clemens will be put through the formula first, being credited with 4,916 innings with an ERA+ of 143 combined with 84 innings (the difference between the baseline and his career innings pitched) of an ERA+ of 100, and we get a number of 142.3. Since we do not have to worry about fielding or baserunning with pitchers, this number is his final, complete "Adjusted career value." Doing the same to Santana we find that he has an ACV of 114.7. Clemens' figure comes out as one of the ten best ever, and while Santana's is very good, he clearly has a ways to go before he establishes himself as an all-time great.
Relief pitchers were a bit trickier. I used the same formula, but set the baseline at 1500 innings pitched. For career relievers, this number is extremely difficult to achieve, Trevor Hoffman for example has 1,042 career innings pitched. The formula works extremely well for what it was intended when analyzing pitchers who have under 1,500 career innings, but it does not work so well for players over that amount. Unlike with hitters and starters who exceed the baseline, just letting the formula give them credit for going over would not work here.
I wanted to develop a method for which starting pitchers could be evaluated evenly with relief pitchers. Again I wanted to keep it simple, so what I did was for every 250 innings pitched over the 1,500 baseline, I credited a player with a +1 to their career ERA+. For example, Dizzy Dean as a starter rates as a 111.8 ACV, but as a reliever he has a 131.8 ACV. The reason for this is to compare how a starter would be expected to perform if used as a reliever, and therefore make it capable of comparing him to other full-time relievers. The downside of this is that relievers cannot be compared to starters simply by looking at their ACV's.
For some relievers I jumped through a few hoops to give them a more accurate evaluation. Dennis Eckersley is perhaps the best example because his career ERA+ is not spectacular, but he was clearly dominant when used as a relief pitcher. I did this by weighting his seasons as a reliever heavier than his seasons as a starter and finding a new career ERA+ for him based on that.
If desired players ACV's can be subjectively adjusted for things that I have not taken into consideration, for example a player's impact in the clubhouse and leadership. I have no doubt Willie Mays had more of a positive influence on his team than Dick Allen purely by being in the dugout, but exactly how to weight those things is essentially impossible. In exceptional cases I think it would be fine to give bonus credit or to dock points from a players ACV based on this if you want an even more complete evaluation.
The goal was to find a single number that represented a player's career value to his team. Any such statistic is a blunt instrument and this method is no different. It is a unique way to look at players, and I think it holds up to logical, objective assessment fairly well. As mentioned, I am calling this new statistic "adjusted career value" (ACV), and it can be easily found by anyone with a calculator and a spreadsheet. I think it is elegant in its simplicity and completeness. While I do not think it is a groundbreaking method of player analysis, developing ACV was a fun and rewarding process.
The next entry will be the actual breakdown of all the teams and the ratings for the individual players.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part VII: Dennis' Team
Lineup
RF - Ty Cobb - Nine straight years leading league in OPS+, owned nearly every important record when he retired
DH - Joe Dimaggio - .325 career average, essentially same number of K's as HRs
3B - George Brett - .305 career average, 665 2B, 317 HR
CF - Willie Mays - The epitome of the 5-tool player
1B - Hank Greenberg - .313/.412/.605 career
LF - Al Simmons - Three seasons of 150+ RBI
C - Johnny Bench - 2 MVPS, 2 HR titles, 3 times leader in RBI
SS - Ernie Banks - 4 straight years of 40+ HRs as SS
2B - Roberto Alomar - .300 career hitter, 6 seasons of 100+ runs
Bench
C - Gabby Hartnett - 126 career OPS+ over 20 years
IF - Rafael Palmeiro - 9 straight years of 35+ HR, 100+ RBI starting at age 30
OF - Roberto Clemente - 4 seasons with 200 hits, 4 time batting champion
Util - Al Kaline - Double digit HRs for 20 straight years, 10 gold gloves
Util - Ichiro Suzuki - 9 straight seasons of 200+ hits, 25+ steals, 8 gold gloves
Rotation
SP - Christy Mathewson - Led league in wins 4 times, ERA 5 times
SP - Greg Maddux - Had a 6 year stretch of 1400+ innings with a 191 ERA+
SP - Ed Walsh - 1.82 career ERA, best ever
SP - Don Sutton - 324 wins, 4 time leader in WHIP
SP - Mike Mussina - 17 straight double-digit win seasons
Bullpen
CL - Joe Nathan - 2.04 career ERA since moving to pen
SU - Addie Joss - 1.89 career ERA, 0.97 career WHIP is lowest ever
LHRP - Eddie Plank - No ERAs over 2.86 after the age of 26
RP - Dazzy Vance - Led league in K's for 7 straight years
RP - Bob Lemon - 7 straight years of 250+ IP with a league better than average ERA
RP - Jon Papelbon - Rookie 171 ERA+ was worst of his career
Manager - Casey Stengel
Park - Fenway Park
Captain - Johnny Bench
Alright so now a little breakdown..
- Obviously an elite defensive team in the outfield and behind the plate; Greenberg is the only player in the starting lineup who is not above average with the glove.
- Relatively weak hitting at the middle infield position is compensated by having the two best centerfielders in the lineup every day.
- It is odd that even though the lineup's weakness is probably the infield, the only infielder on the bench is a first baseman, which does not help.
- Don Sutton was probably the weakest starting pitcher drafted, but Dennis' top three can match up with pretty much anyone's.
- Best Pick: Gabby Hartnett - Hartnett should be starting for a team but Dennis was able to get him several round after the starting catchers were selected, even though Hartnett was a better player than most of them.
- Worst Pick: Hank Greenberg - Greenberg was a fine player but considering how much later players like Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell and Mark McGwire were drafted, Greenberg probably went too soon.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part VI: Andy's Team
Lineup:
I ended up with a lefty-dominated lineup, which is maybe not so surprising. With players this good, it probably won’t make too much of a difference what order I put them in, but I still tried to get my best OBP guys up front (1,2) and stack some power behind them (3-6).
CF, Tris Speaker (L) - His ability to hit for average (.345 career) and patience (.428 OBP) make him an obvious choice to be my lead-off hitter. He also displayed great speed and baserunning instincts early in his career, stealing over 400 bases in his career with better than 75% accuracy. Also a fantastic fielder.
2B, Rogers Hornsby (R) - One of the premier offensive powers of his day, leading the league in OPS eleven times during his career. His ability to get on base make him the perfect player to bat ahead of the middle of the order. It should be noted, however, he was not much of a defender and a general malcontent in the clubhouse.
1B, Lou Gehrig (L) - There aren't many instances of a player putting up numbers like Lou Gehrig's and still only being the second best player on his team. Still, Gehrig was one of the best all-around batters in baseball history, ranking in the top-five for career OBP and SLG.
RF, Mel Ott (L) - One of baseball's premier home-run hitters. He led the league six times during his career. The perfect guy to knock in all of the high OBP guys ahead of him. By all accounts he was also a really nice guy.
3B, Eddie Mathews (L) - While Eddie may not have had the all-around batting skills of the guys in front of him in the lineup. He had patience and could certainly hit for power- he led the league in homers twice during the high-powered 1950s.
DH, Willie Stargell (L) - Another fine homerun hitter. He unfortunately spent his career playing in the 1970s- perhaps deflating his career homerun totals. Given his sub-par outfield defense, we are sticking him at DH.
LF, Carl Yastrzemski (L) - Yaz had a short peak as the premier offensive power of the offense-starved late 1960s (not many batting titles are won with a .301). His career didn't match up to that early success, but continued to be a valuable player. He won multiple gold gloves playing in front of the Green Monster, but it is unclear how those skills would translate to a normal ballpark.
C, Mickey Cochrane (L) - Mickey has a short career, retiring at 34. In that time, however, he was possibly the best offensive catcher of his time. His excellent AVG and OBP skills make him a great bottom of the order hitter for us. He also played some damn fine defense.
SS, Barry Larkin (R) - Barry Larking had the misfortune of being a fine offensive shortstop playing in an era when shortstops suddenly became middle of the order hitters. Still, he was a fine batter and a great baserunner. Combined with his gold-glove-caliber defense, we have our starting shortstop.
Bench:
My bench will hopefully shore up a couple of weaknesses that show up in my starting line-up, namely right-handed power, defense, and baserunning.
C, Carlton Fisk (R) - A abnormally long-careered catcher who oscillated between excellent and awful over the course of his career. Not nearly consistent enough to be my starter, he will ride the pine.
2B, Ryne Sandberg (R) - Ryno addresses one of my biggest concerns about my starting line-up, Rogers Hornsby's awful defense at 2B. Sandberg played great defense at 2B and had a couple of tremendous offensive seasons. He will be my late-inning replacement of choice.
CF, Dale Murphy (R) – My back-up outfielder and right-handed pinch hitter of choice. During his peak, Murphy hit for power, played excellent defense in center, and was an above average baserunner.
3B, Wade Boggs (L) – When I absolutely need my pinch hitter to get on base, this is the guy I will go to. At his peak Boggs could do this better than anyone else in baseball.
IF, Paul Moliter (R) – Moliter will be my utility infielder and primary pinch runner. He played all around the infield (and even some outfield) during his career, hit for decent average, and stole bases relatively successfully.
Rotation:
My strategy for choosing pitchers was to select durable, high career-value guys. I firmly believe that one of the most valuable things an ace pitcher can do is take innings away from a pitcher worse than him (although my bullpen is quite good).
RHP, Walter Johnson – What is there to say about the Big Train that hasn’t already been said. He is arguably one of the highest career-value pitchers of all time. He routinely led the league in innings pitched while also leading the important rate stats (SO/9 and SO/BB specifically).
LHP, Warren Spahn – I hate the Jim Rice Hall of Fame argument (most feared hitter, blah, blah, blah…), but it should be noted that Warren Spahn was the most feared pitcher in baseball for the better part of a decade and is arguably the best lefty of all time. He stuck around too long, bringing down his career numbers, but in his prime he ate a ton of innings while limiting hits and homeruns. He was something of a statistical anomaly in his ability to maintain a lower-than-league-average BABIP over the course of his career (something normally not in the pitcher’s control).
RHP, Gaylord Perry – Another guy who stuck around too long, Perry limited hits and BB over the course of his career.
RHP, Carl Hubbell - An anomaly in my rotation for his short career, Carl Hubbell had a five-year peak as the most dominating pitcher in his league. His ability to limit BB and still strike some guys out allowed him to lead the league in SO/BB five times.
RHP, Phil Neikro – Perhaps the ultimate in sticking around too long, Neikro depended on his knuckleball for success, which led to some fantastic seasons and also quite a few homeruns and walks. Still, when he had everything working he was devastating, and I like the idea of a rubber-armed starter who can be dropped into the rotation based on the match-up.
Bullpen:
I tried to be a little bit unconventional with my bullpen. While I picked a few guys who were well known as relievers during their careers, I also tried to get some starters who had tremendous physical talent, but maybe a flaw or two. Hopefully the move to the bullpen will help some of these payers focus their abilities and reduce some of the errors that limited their success as starters.
RHP, Ferguson Jenkins – A control artist whose success as a starter was limited by his propensity to give up homers, Fergie may well benefit from making shorter appearances. He led the league in BB/9 five times.
RHP, Robin Roberts – A very similar pitcher to Jenkins, Roberts had fantastic control and good SO numbers (led the league in SO/BB five times), but left the ball up in the zone a little bit too often. Hopefully he will be able to keep things down coming out of the pen.
RHP, Rollie Fingers – Rollie Finger was one of the best multi-inning relievers in baseball history (with one of the best names). He will provide flexibility with his ability to pitch back-to-back days.
LHP, Sparky Lyle – One of baseball’s premier lefty relievers, Lyle probably walked a few too many batters, but he was extremely stingy about giving up hits and homers. We probably won’t bring him in with the bases loaded.
RHP, Rube Waddell – One of baseball’s true oddities, Waddell had a short career as the most dominating strikeout pitcher of the 1900s. He led the league in strikeouts six times (often having over 100 strikeouts more than number two on the list). Unfortunately, injuries and mental lapses prevented him from playing effectively into his 30s. Hopefully, careful management in the pen will help him pitch effectively.
RHP, Goose Gossage – One of the guys who defined “Closer” in baseball, Gossage was a feared multi-inning reliever in his day. He posted a sub-one WHIP three times during his career. He will be my closer (although I tend to favor more fluid bullpen roles).
Manager, Earl Weaver – There are many reasons for me to go with Weaver. His emphasis on patience and distaste for stolen bases, hit-and-run plays, and the bunt should play well with my team of relatively slow players (Speaker will be on his own, but I think he will survive). His use of statistics and hands-on bullpen management will also benefit my relief corps, who will at times need some help to harness their talents. Finally his bench management will make the best use of my mainly right-handed bench to complement my mainly left-handed lineup.
Captain, Mel Ott – One of baseball’s all-time nice guys, Mel Ott will be the good-cop to Weaver’s bad-cop. As my cleanup hitter, he will lead by example.
Ballpark, Old Yankee Stadium – Babe Ruth-era Yankee Stadium was known for its short porch in right and cavernous center field. These dimensions will favor my left-handed lineup and generate lots of homeruns. The huge centerfield will also highlight the fine defense of CF Tris Speaker (and hopefully wreak havoc with the visiting team CF).
And now back to me....
- First of all, people need to stop ripping off my manager!
- Andy's choice in going after durable starting pitching is smart in many ways because he got some serious workhorses, however, because so many of them played long after their prime (and whole careers must be considered) it may end up hurting him a bit.
- I really liked several of Andy's bullpen choices. Roberts and Jenkins really deserved a roster spot on one of these teams, but they were probably just not quite good enough to start.
- Although his lineup is very left-handed a lot of those guys did not struggle against south paws in their career, most of them also excelled at hitting to the opposite field.
- The manager and ballpark choices may be a bit obvious but they're also totally logical and this team should benefit greatly from both
- Best Pick: Tris Speaker lasted way too long in this draft. I'm not sure how Andy got him in the 4th/5th round changeover but that was probably the steal of the whole draft.
- Worst pick: It is partially because Andy really made nothing but totally defensible picks this whole draft, but I'm going to have to say taking Johnson first overall was probably a mistake. Johnson is, in my opinion, the best pitcher ever by a decent amount, but Babe Ruth was just such a force I do not think passing him up was the best move.
Monday, October 5, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part V: Anthony's team
Team notes
Baseball is a simple game. Pitching, defense and power. That's what we have, with emphasis on the first two. First, our rotation boasts two of the three greatest pitchers of all-time at the top (Young, Alexander) in front of two of the top power right-handers ever (Seaver and Feller) and perhaps the greatest left-handed pitcher in baseball history (Santana) when all is said and done. We complemented our strong staff with flawless defense up the middle, combining Berra's baseball sense, Ozzie's wizardry and Snider’s range with Brooks Robinson's sheer brilliance at the hot corner.
Our bullpen features two left-handers in Franco and Guidry, a crafty contact pitcher (Tekulve), two guys withfunky deliveries (Eckersley and Lincecum) and two of the greatest out-pitches of all-time (Sutter's split and Guidry's slider). Our staff as a whole has a high strikeout rate and features at least four of the greatest control men in history.
When we need offense, we will turn to perhaps the greatest 1-2 lineup combo ever assembled. Sorry, Manny and Papi, but Aaron and Ruth offer almost 1,500 career homers. They anchor a lineup which is alternated lefty-righty and contains two switch-hitters, the second of whom, Ozzie Smith, leads a speedy 9-1-2 trio that can create runs. The lineup is also balanced; pairing patient gap hitters (Rose, Morgan) with the aforementioned power guys. Snider is dropped lower in the order to maintain the lineup's alternation and separate the team's two worst men at the dish.
The reserves include a switch-hitter (Chipper), a defensive replacement (Yount), a power threat (Wilson), a team-first guy (Munson) and one of the great pure hitters of all-time (Carew). We can count our cancerous clubhouse guys on Jim Abbott's right hand and, with Munson and Rose, have two of baseball's great teammates.
Plus, Yogi is funny.
Lineup
1B Pete Rose - all-time leader in games played, plate appearances, at-bats and hits.
2B Joe Morgan - two-time NL MVP, two-time NL leader in OPS, .392 career OBP despite .271 BA, 689 career steals and a player who prided himself on handling the bat well and creating runs for a loaded lineup -- perfect No. 2 hitter for this team.
RF Hank Aaron - perhaps the most consistent player of all-time, he is baseball's all-time leader in RBI and total bases. Oh, by the way, his 755 career homers ranks second all-time, overshadowing his 3,771 career hits.
DH Babe Ruth - The. best. ever. All-time leader in OPS, OPS-plus and slugging. His 714 career blasts rank third all-time, and a .342 career BA pales in comparison to a cartoonish .474 career OBP. But don't walk him, next is ...
LF Frank Robinson - Winner of 2 league MVPS -- one in each league -- 1 WS MVP, 1 All-Star MVP, 1 Gold Glove, 1 batting crown and 1 Triple Crown. Led the league many times in OPS, OBP, runs scored and, well, you get the picture.
C Yogi Berra - As Joba Chamberlain once said, “Yogi is barely taller than this police cruiser, officer." As Yogi once said, "Joba, get somebody out." OK, the last one wasn't true, but here's what is -- this midget could mash.
3B Brooks Robinson – Ummm, did I mention he has 16 Gold Gloves?
CF Duke Snider - Simply, a solid player, especially in the eight-hole. He brings power to the bottom of the order, and an OPS-plus of 140.
SS Ozzie Smith -- Speedy guy to make trio of stolen base threats in the 9-1-2 triumvirate. Also, did I mention he was a really, really good defensive player as well?
Bench
C Thurman Munson -- A cold-blooded, late-game RBI man, Munson can be counted both offensively and defensively if inserted in the twilight of the game.
3B Chipper Jones -- Larry can switch hit, has power and can get on base. Most importantly, he can do what starting third baseman Brooks Robinson cannot.
SS-CF Robin Yount -- Yount can play multiple positions, run, field and has some pop. A great all-purpose guy to have on your bench.
OF Hack Wilson -- A one-swing-can-tie-the-game power guy who once had 191 RBI in a season, a MLB record.
2B Rod Carew It never hurts to have one of the best pure hitters in the history of the game on the pine if you need a baserunner. He simply hits the ball where it was pitched, allowing him success against any type of pitcher.
Rotation
RHP Cy Young -- The all-time leader in wins, losses, shutouts and innings pitched. The era in which he pitched as well as Young's workhouse mentality make his total of wins (511) and innings (7,354) nearly untouchable. His ERA-plus of 138, though, compares him favorably with those of any era.
RHP Pete Alexander - Grover Cleveland was a three-time 30-game winner and a Philadelphia postseason hero -- two rare commodities. Most impressive, however, were his three NL pitching Triple Crowns.
RHP Tom Seaver -- Tall, sturdy and right-handed, Seaver was your prototypical power pitcher. A standard bearer for pitchers of that ilk, Seaver set the bar high by combining impeccable control with his swing-and-miss stuff. He led the NL in SOs five times and SO/BB ratio three times.
LHP Johan Santana -- Santana throws crisp 92-94 MPH cheese -- which is tough from the left side -- but his change-up is most impressive. He has used it en route to two CY Young Awards and 122 wins by the age of 30.
RHP Bob Feller -- Rapid Robert led the league in wins six times, including 1951, when he tallied 22 of them at the age of 33. Feller's career would have been more impressive had he not sacrificed some prime years to the war.
Bullpen
RHP -- Dennis Eckersley (closer) -- A team's closer must do two things: 1. Not be afraid to fail, and 2. Not walk people. Eck did both naturally. He walked only three batters in 57.7 innings in 1989, four batters in 73.3 innings in 1990 and nine batters in 76 innings in 1991. In his 1990 season, Eckersley became the only relief pitcher in baseball history to have more saves than baserunners allowed.
His mentality? Well, he allowed one of the most famous home runs in baseball history and followed that by posting three of the best seasons for a closer in the annals of the game.
RHP Bruce Sutter (Setup) -- His peak was impressive, but a drop-off late in his career allowed his ERA-plus to fall to 136. However, he was slotted in this role for what he can do best -- and what a team needs best in the late innings -- make people either swing and miss or hit into DPs with a nasty split finger. Sutter, actually, introduced the pitch and ushered in a new era of pitching in the process
LHP Ron Guidry -- The Gator, it can be argued, could be one of the most dominant left-handed specialists of all-time. His slider was devastating. His numbers don't lend him to be a starter on an all-time team, but those who faced him in his prime still have nightmares.
LHP John Franco -- A Brooklyn native with a New Yorker's toughness. Franco's stuff wasn't as overpowering as others on the staff, but the guy had heart. 424 saves and a 2.89 ERA for his 21-season career, which also saw him yield just three earned runs in 14.1 postseason innings, is impressive. But more than anything, he's a great teammate and, hell, I'd like to sit next to him in the pen.
RHP Kent Tekulve -- It can be argued that Tekulve has the most impressive resume in the pen. He has 94 wins, 184 saves and a 2.85 ERA in 16 seasons. Versatile and smart, he pitched to contact and had success doing so.
RHP Tim Lincecum -- Every pen needs a swing man -- a guy with the stuff to close, setup, spot start or be a long man. In fact, this freak's stuff is good enough to do anything. With most of his career in front of him, this 25-year-old with a funky delivery has 40 wins, one Cy Young and a 150 ERA-plus in just three seasons.
Manager -- I hate to have managers overlap, but Earl Weaver also will be leading my bunch. We have a lot of good guys who play hard, so no personality clashes with the mercurial skipper. Earl also will sit back and wait for the three-run homer, the smartest thing to do with this lineup. He won't let little-ball get in the way of what's most effective in this instance. So, Tommy Lasorda, you also are funny, but you will not be cussing anyone out on my team. Earl, you, no doubt, will.
Captain -- Thurman Munson. Without laying the Yankees stuff on too thick, Munson made George Steinbrenner erase the unwritten rule that Lou Gehrig would be the last captain of the storied franchise. He was hard-nosed on the field and off -- not afraid to get into Mr. October's face after the game or Carlton Fisk's during it. So, despite the good guys on the team, there will be the element of getting these all-time superstars to mesh into one harmonious clubhouse. If Munson could handle the Bronx Zoo, this is nothing.
Park -- Our games will take place at San Diego's Petco Park for two reasons. 1. The weather is amazing 2. It is an extreme pitchers' park, which will further enhance our strong staff. Also, if anyone’s hitters can maintain their power in this cavernous outpost, it's Ruth, Aaron and Robinson.
And now as is customary, a little bit from me...
- Anthony took some real defensive specialists on the left side of the infield. I respect Smith and Robinson a ton, but I can't help but wonder if, when drafting an all-time team, there might have been guys out there who were spectacular glove men, but also hit some...Ron Santo and Arky Vaughan for example....
- With Young and Alexander at the front of the rotation, Anthony clearly has the best front-end starting pitching, and the rest of his staff is not too shabby either.
- Unlike some of the other pens we have seen, Anthony's guys do not boast eye-popping career numbers, several of them were dominant for stretches but also had significant portions of their career where they were merely good.
- Anthony's best pick in my opinion was Frank Robinson. Like many of the players who are just below the super-duper-stars, but obvious all-time greats, Robinson occasionally gets forgotten a bit, but he had a truly fantastic career.
- Anthony's worst pick to me was probably Pete Rose for first base. There were, in my opinion, better players on the board long after Rose was taken, particularly Johnny Mize and Jeff Bagwell.