The 20 Best Pitches in Baseball Today

I am basing these rankings primarily on fangraph.com's pitch values statistics. People often talk about particular pitchers having the best this or that and as is often the case it is impossible to get a consensus answer. Because of this, I decided to look it up myself. I've used the pitch values over each of the last three seasons, and weighted the most recently completed years the heaviest. These rankings are based on a combination of overall value garnered from the pitch and the pitch's rate value.

20. Carlos Marmol's Slider - Marmol throws his slider roughly half the time and does not even command it that well, but the combination of his awkward motion/arm slot, velocity (the pitch averages over 82 MPH) and movement make it a nasty offering. His slider breaks across the zone more than most but its movement is only good and not spectacular. Marmol's slider is a testament to how much of a difference deception can make.

19. Randy Wolf's 4-seam Fastball - This was a bit of a surprise to me because Wolf's fastball sits in the upper 80s and has never really stood out in my personal observations much. Wolf does command the pitch well and often rides it up in the zone to pickup strikeouts. However, I think the biggest reason that it stands out is how much "life" it has. This is one of those things that is difficult to quantify because it is very subjective, but some pitches just seem faster than they are, and Wolf's fastball is a perfect example. It does have a bit more rise on it than most fastballs and a little arm-side tail that makes it deceptively quick. Wolf also throws one of the slowest curveballs in the league (sitting in the upper 60s) and perhaps it is the difference between those two pitches that catches batters off. Exactly why Wolf's fastball is so effective really is a bit of a mystery, but it is impossible to deny how outstanding the pitch is.

18. A.J. Burnett's Curveball - It is tricky to succeed as a two-pitch starter but Burnett, for all intensive purposes, has been one for his whole career. Although his fastball is extremely quick his lack of command makes the fastball only a decent pitch. However, his curve is just plain filthy. It moves so much (both across the zone and down) that hitters will often swing at it, even when it ends up a couple feet out of the zone. He throws the pitch to left-handed batters and they will often swing at balls that nearly hit their back foot. At an 82 MPH average, the simplest way to describe Burnett's curveball is that it is impossible to find another pitch with this much movement at that speed.

17. Hong-Chih Kuo's 4-seam Fastball - Kuo's injury history and lack of command forced him to the bullpen, where he has been invaluable to the Dodgers. When he was first called up, Los Angeles used him as a lefty specialist, but they quickly realized Kuo's fastball was actually his best pitch. As a result he ended up being able to dominate both left and right-handed batters. His velocity has gone up each year of his career and he averaged over 94 MPH in 2009. The movement on his pitch is nearly identical to Wolf's but the extra 5-6 MPH make Kuo's pitch that little bit better. Kuo would be a closer for most teams but as long as Jonathan Broxton (whose fastball and slider both came fairly close to this list) is in town he'll have to settle for setup duty.

16. Rich Harden's Splitter - Similar to Burnett, it is Harden's fastball velocity that gets the most publicity, but it is not his best pitch. Harden's fastball is very straight, making it more hittable while his splitter has good tumble and is pretty quick itself, sitting in the mid 80s. Harden's fastball velocity certainly helps the splitter because batters will be geared up for the heat and be way out in front when Harden pulls the string. Over the last few years Harden has completely abandoned every breaking pitch but because the split is so effective, he can still be a great pitcher... when healthy.

15. Jake Peavy's 2-seam Fastball - Peavy has gone to the back of most people's minds after a forgettable 2009, but even in limited time he still showed that his fastball is a special pitch. It sits in the low 90s but has a significant amount of arm-side run and decent sink that induces tons of groundballs. It is undeniable that the park he plays in has helped the pitch's value numbers but it also seems obvious to me that this is a top 20 pitch in any environment. If he had been healthy all season I have no doubt Peavy would have the highest rated fastball on this list.

14. Roy Halladay's Cutter - Halladay's curveball was actually #21 when I was writing this list up; after looking at the numbers, it cannot be denied that for about three seasons now, the cutter has been his best pitch. He threw it 41.5% of the time last year (a career high) and it still maintained an incredible level of effectiveness. As I wrote in a previous article Halladay went from being a very good pitcher to one of the best in baseball when he learned and tuned his cutter. The pitch has excellent velocity (averaging roughly 91 MPH) and moves across the zone nearly as much as a slider.

13. Chris Carpenter's 2-seam Fastball - Carpenter is a bit of an oddity on this list for two reasons. The first is that he only pitched in one of the last three years and the second is that the pitch he is on this list for doesn't actually generate many swings-and-misses. His fastball makes the list because it sometimes seems impossible to get it off the ground. His fastball was primarily responsible for 2009, allowing him to generate huge amounts of easy, efficient outs with slow grounders to his infielders. That is, I believe, the difference between the groundballs Carpenter gives up compared to the rest of the league; he never seems to give up a hard-hit grounder, everything is a 10 hopper and too slow to even sneak through the infield.

12. Jonathan Papelbon's 4-seam Fastball - There are two people on this list who are one-pitch pitchers. Papelbon is the first and the other will be coming up later. In order to succeed as a one-pitch guy, that pitch has to be incredible and Papelbon's fastball is just that. It sits easily in the mid 90s and he seems to be able to hit the upper 90s when necessary. Other than its velocity, there isn't actually anything that remarkable about the pitch. He can control it fairly well and does a good job at attacking hitter's weaknesses with it, but it does not move very much in any direction. Nonetheless the batters always know it is coming and it rarely matters.

11. Cole Hamels Changeup - Hamels has a very ordinary fastball and a below average curve, but has a 3.67 ERA through his first four seasons in the majors anyway because of his changeup. His command of the pitch is its biggest asset. He will throw it for strikes or down out of the zone, making batters flail helplessly at it. The pitch does hit the magical mark of being more than 10 MPH slower than his fastball and Hamels is so good at maintaining his arm speed and slot that the pitch is devastating.

10. Ryan Dempster's Slider - We begin the top 10 with a bit of a surprise. However he has put together a couple good seasons in a row, thanks almost entirely to his slider. Even when Dempster struggled his slider was a solid pitch, however in recent years it has been exceptional. He throws it over 30% of the time, and it is very hard, only six MPH slower than his fastball. As a result the pitch has a short, but very sharp break that can generate both strikeouts and groundballs. His slider has become such a go-to pitch that he posted a 3.65 ERA last year and it was his only offering with a positive value.

9. C.C. Sabathia's Slider - The hard-throwing Sabathia's slider took a bit of a dip in value last year, but it was so potent in '07 and '08 it ranks in the top 10 anyway. His slider has more across-the-zone movement than any other pitch that averages over 80 MPH and he has excellent command of it too. Last year lefties batted under .200 against Sabathia thanks mostly to his slider, and that was when the pitch wasn't at its sharpest. He has also become adept at burying it inside to right-handed hitters who can do nothing with it but swing and miss or dribble it weakly to third base.

8. Ervin Santana's Slider - It's probably hard to believe that someone who has only had one good season in the past three years is on this list, but even last year when he struggled Santana's slider was a dominant pitch. When Santana struggles it is generally because he loses command of the fastball. His version of a slider is not exceptionally hard like Dempster or with drastic movement like Sabathia, it falls somewhere in between. The raw movement data suggests that it should be a solid pitch but I can't really see a logical reason for it rating as highly as it does. Maybe he can control the pitch better than I realize or maybe batters know that his other pitches are less effective and they're always looking to drive something else. After seeing the stats I intend to pay closer attention to Santana next year and try to figure it out, but until than it will have to be enough simply that we know it's an amazing pitch.

7. Edwin Jackson's Slider - Jackson is Santana part 2, a reasonably effective pitcher with only one good pitch. The difference between the two of them is that Jackson's fastball is actually worse but he has still been a durable league average pitcher. He throws the slider less often than Santana or Dempster, but his other options are less effective and his slider is even better than either of there's. It seems like he could be much more effective overall if he used the pitch more often. His version of the slider looks almost like a cutter, averaging just over 86 MPH with a short, sharp break. It actually reminds me a bit of the one Robb Nen used to throw. The best way to illustrate how good Jackson's slider is, is to point out that he has been a league average pitcher over the last three years, as a two pitch pitcher, and the only other pitch he throws is pretty terrible.

6. Adam Wainwright's Curveball - There are only two curveballs on this list, and Burnett's is really more of a slurve (with Halladay's curve ranking 21st). So what do Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright have in common that makes their curve's so exceptional? They are both very tall. Halladay is 6'6 and Wainwright is 6'7; I believe that allows them to get a little extra leverage and helps the pitch break down that much more. The movement on Wainwright's curve is staggering. It is perhaps best illustrated by looking at one of his pitch fx game charts, so you can see just how different it is from his other pitches. It has a significant amount of lateral break, but it is the downward movement that is off the charts. This makes it effective against both right and left-handed batters. Wainwright was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and the reason for the spike is his refinement of the slider and curve. Both are great pitches, but the curve is better.

5. C.C. Sabathia's Changeup - The only person to appear twice on this list, (although several were very close) I think most people would be surprised to find out Sabathia's changeup is actually his best pitch. While it has always been very good, over the last couple of seasons it has improved drastically and last year it moved in front of Sabathia's slider as his best pitch. At an average of 86 MPH it is only 8 MPH slower than his fastball, but because he has become so good at spotting it on the outside corner to righties that difference is enough. The pitch also has a huge amount of tailing action for changeup. For a right-handed batter, the location, speed and tail makes the pitch appear like a strike out of Sabathia's hand, but by the time they swing it is no longer within their reach.

4. Zack Greinke's Slider - This is Greinke's only appearance on this list but his fastball was also in the 21-30 range. Early in his career Greinke's primary breaking ball was a curve, but after his sabbatical Greinke switched to a slider. He's actually used both pitches since, but the slider has become his bread and butter. In 2007, pitching mostly in relief, it was a slightly above average pitch. In 2008 it became one of the better pitches in baseball, and in 2009 it was one of the very best overall. As he has used it more often, its velocity has increased, up to an average of 86 MPH last year and it has increased its downward break each season as well. Its across the zone movement has actually regressed some, but even after that it remains well above average. It is the combination of velocity and movement that makes the pitch special. It is the same speed as Edwin Jackson's, but with more break in both directions, and he commands it better.

3. Cliff Lee's 2-seam Fastball - Over the last two seasons, Cliff Lee's fastball has the highest total positive value number. While it is not as special as some other fastballs on a per-pitch basis, he throws it nearly 70% of the time and batters still have not figured it out. Lee works with 4 pitches, but he throws his fastball more often than A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, all two-pitch pitchers. Lee gives opposing batters a chance to sit on his fastball and they still cannot do anything with it. It only averages just over 90 MPH and does not move an exceptional amount in any direction. There is no real secret behind Lee's fastball though. I believe there are three key reasons why it is the best in baseball. First he hides the ball extremely well in his delivery, second he works so quickly that hitters never feel comfortable against him and most importantly, he seems to be able to throw the pitch exactly where he wants, every time.

2. Mariano Rivera's Cutter - Perhaps the only surprise here is that Rivera's cutter does not rank first overall. You can make an excellent case for it being first, but objectively I think there is one better pitch out there. I doubt that any single pitch has ever been analyzed as much as Rivera's cutter. He doesn't sit in the mid 90s anymore, but still pitches routinely at 92 MPH and his command is obviously impeccable. I earlier wrote about Edwin Jackson's exceptional slider; just to show you how special Rivera's cutter is, it actually moves more than Jackson's slider and is roughly 6 MPH faster. It almost doesn't seem possible that a pitch has can move that much when it gets to the plate so quickly, but that's what makes it pitch one of a kind.

1. Tim Lincecum's Changeup - Seriously. In case you haven't noticed, Lincecum has been the best pitcher in baseball for two years now and the pitch most responsible for that is his insane changeup. His fastball was in the 21-30 range and both of his breaking pitches are also very good, but it is the changeup that is truly special. It is as close to unhittable as exists in the Major Leagues today. However, the annoying thing is that I really cannot tell why. It checks in at 83 MPH, making it roughly 10 MPH slower than his fastball, and gives the impression of a drop because of its velocity. The biggest reason that I can see on paper for its effectiveness is that its horizontal movement is identical to Lincecum's fastball, meaning it arrives on the exact same plane. Lincecum also uses the same release point regardless of the pitch and the same arm speed. Perhaps it is a combination of all of those things and his naturally deceptive delivery that make the pitch so lethal. Lincecum only through his changeup 21.4% of the time last year yet it's total positive value was miles ahead of any other changeup in the last six years. In fact in all the years FanGraphs has data for, only Jamie Moyer in 2002 boasted a changeup with a higher total value than Lincecum's, and in that year Moyer through the pitch 34.6% of the time, 13.2% more often than Lincecum. MLB hitters beware, baseball's ultimate weapon is Tim Lincecum's changeup.

Dan Uggla Hits the Trade Market

The Florida Marlins apparently have voiced their intentions to trade Dan Uggla, one of of the more consistent and underrated players in baseball. Uggla has two more arbitration years left and Florida expects him to get a bit more expensive than they would prefer. This gives other teams in baseball a huge opportunity to acquire an in-their-prime player who is not particularly expensive. The Marlins would like younger, cheaper, major-league ready options in exchange, so let's see if we can figure out the ideal landing spot for Uggla.

First however, I'd like to talk about just how good Uggla is. Uggla has played second base at a slightly below average level for the past four years, meaning he is not an asset with the glove but he probably will not kill you there either. A lot of teams expressing interest in Uggla plan to move him to third base, and I would expect him to be roughly an average defender at that position. As a hitter, Uggla comes from the "three-true outcomes" offensive philosophy. He strikes out a lot, walks a lot and hits a bunch of home runs. Unlike most guys of this mold though he actually hits a lot of doubles as well, which definitely helps. Last season he hit .243/.354/.459 but also posted the lowest BABIP of his career, meaning his numbers should have been a bit higher than that. In other words, Uggla is a very useful player to have on a team, not quite all-star caliber, but he is averaging over 3 WAR per season in his career.

So, what kind of team could particularly use Uggla, enough to want to trade for him? Well, they would have to be a team that would expect to be in contention or close to it next year, has a hole at second or third base and could use some power, particularly right-handed. Here are the teams that make the most sense in my opinion.

Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays were better than you think last year, Scoring significantly more runs than they allowed, and they also dealt with an insane amount of injuries to their pitching staff. They are also made up mostly of young on the rise players, and they still have Roy Halladay. However, they currently are slated to have Edwin Encarnacion as their starting third baseman and he not a great hitter and a brutal fielder. Toronto would probably have to give up one of their young pitchers and something else to get Uggla, but he plugs an obvious void for the team. He is not enough alone to push the Jays past the other monsters in the AL East, but it's a step in the right direction.

Minnesota Twins
Uggla is not really a player that fits what the Twins are typically looking for, which is unfortunate because he is a perfect fit for them. They currently seem to plan on starting Nick Punto at either third or second and I don't see how a team expects to go deep into the playoffs starting Punto everyday. The Twins two best hitters by far are both left-handed and Michael Cuddyer in the only right-handed player on the roster with power so Uggla helps to balance out the lineup.

Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are actually close to being competitive in their division. They have a lot of good young pitching and some decent role-players in the lineup but desperately need some more pop. It is also hard to imagine a team that has gotten less production out of the third base position than the A's the last couple of years, leaving a spot wide open for Uggla. They are already playing Jack Cust everyday, and Uggla is a right-handed version of him that can also play defense.

St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had to scramble mid-season last year to plug holes in left-field and third base with one-year solutions, so both holes actually still exist. Why not fix the problem at third base before the season? With Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus on their way out and Brett Wallace traded to Oakland, the best in house option might be David Freese who is probably not good enough for a team with playoff aspirations. The only possible power threats in this lineup beyond Pujols are maybe Ryan Ludwick or Colby Rasmus but neither is a sure thing yet so they could really use Uggla's 30 home runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are losing both Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard to free-agency so second base it once again an area of need. They might be more inclined to go with a defense-first player considering their already potent lineup, but the Dodgers are never afraid to make a trade so the possibility cannot be denied. However, they may be more focused on the pitching staff and Uggla will make more than Hudson did last year, possibly putting him over what they would be willing to spend.

San Francisco Giants
This to me is the best spot for Uggla. Since the Giants are locked into Freddy Sanchez at second, they would have to play Uggla at third and move Sandoval to first base, where he is a better fit anyway, and dump the Garko/Ishikawa duo that just isn't going to get it done. With Bengie Molina on his way out, only two players on the current roster had double-digit home runs last year and also only two players with OBP's over .330. This is a team with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but in desperate need for a bat. Buster Posey is almost ready, and he will help, but they need a lot more and the availability of Uggla is the perfect opportunity for them.


I could also see Uggla fitting in reasonably well with the Cubs, Braves, Rockies, Mariners and Phillies but don't think those teams make as much sense for various reasons; the Cubs have bigger needs elsewhere, the Phillies and Braves are both in-division and I don't think the Phillies would want to part with prospects to get him, the Rockies seem content with Barmes at second for some reason, and the Mariners probably would want a better defender for the salary Uggla makes.

There have also been reports that the Orioles have expressed interest in Uggla, and they do also need a third baseman. However, I think the Orioles are probably more than a year away at best, meaning they probably would not be ready to make a legitimate run at the division until after Uggla is due to hit the market. It is possible Baltimore believes they're closer than that or maybe they will just resign Uggla, but it does not seem like the best fit for me.

The Marlins should have plenty of suitors for Uggla and could probably get a decent haul for him. Each of the teams outlined above has plenty of reasons to go after Uggla but it is the Giants who stand the most to gain. They were a good team last year, even though they only had one good hitter on the roster, and they have a couple of prospects in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner nearly ready to break into the majors. Adding Uggla might be enough to put them over the edge. With Los Angeles also in the division, San Francisco has to be aggressive if they expect to keep up and the door is now open for them to do so.

The True Gold Gloves

Anyone who follows baseball closely realizes that the players who win the gold gloves are often not the best fielders in the league. The voters simply don't seem to care very much about who they vote for, which is a shame, but luckily we can just ignore them and figure out who should have won ourselves. Here are the people that, based on the most advanced statistics available, probably should have won the awards. I am basing this mostly on this year's performance, but also factoring in performance in the past couple of years as well since fielding stats are more accurate with the larger sample size.

American League

C - Gerald Laird; HO - Joe Mauer
Not really a surprise here, Laird is an excellent athlete for a catcher, he's excellent at nabbing base-stealers and one of the best on the bunt.

1B - Kendry Morales; HO - Kevin Youkilis
First base is the hardest position to really get statistically, but Morales combines exceptional assist, putout and fielding % numbers. It would have been Youkilis if he'd spent the whole season at first, but I cannot justify giving him the award since he just didn't rack up enough innings.

2B - Dustin Pedroia; HO - Placido Polanco
Purely on this years statistics, Polanco was better this year and Ian Kinsler was about equal; however, Pedroia has been better over the last few seasons on the whole by a respectable amount and given the large amount of noise in fielding statistics I feel that Pedroia is the proper choice.

3B - Evan Longoria; HO - Chone Figgins/Adrian Beltre
All three of these guys are really superb fielders, but Longoria has been the best, both this year and combining the last two. If you have watched him play, it is impossible to miss his lightning reflexes and strong, accurate arm.

SS - Elvis Andrus; HO - Cesar Izturis
Izturis and Adam Everett actually were slightly better than Andrus on a rate basis, but because Andrus played basically 300 more innings at SS than either of them, I'm giving him the award. He has phenomenal range and makes very few mental mistakes, particularly for someone so young.

OF - Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Sweeney, Carl Crawford; HO - B.J. Upton, Ichiro, David Dejesus
Gutierrez is probably the best defensive player in all of baseball. He essentially laps the field in terms of outfielders and the fact that he didn't win a real gold glove this year is criminally negligent. Ryan Sweeney goes completely unnoticed in Oakland but he has both great range and a fantastic arm, he's the only one in the same area code as Gutierrez on a rate basis. Crawford is really a centerfielder playing left, but he does it so much better than everyone else he gets the third glove.

P - Mark Buehrle; HO - Felix Hernandez
Buehrle's defense is one of the subtle reasons he has so much success despite not striking out many guys or having great stuff. Ground-ball inducing left-handers tend to be the best fielding pitchers partially out of opportunity but also often out of necessity.

National League

C - Yadier Molina; HO - Russ Martin
Anyone who has watched Molina play the catcher position realizes he just does it differently than everyone else. He makes every base-runner nervous and passive while being rock-solid in blocking pitches as well. His quick feet and rocket arm also make him one of the best at fielding bunts. He also is the most aggressive catcher at trying to get lead runners or throwing behind people and steals several outs that way over the course of the season.

1B - Albert Pujols; HO - Adrian Gonzalez
Forget complicated defensive metrics, Pujols led NL 1B's in assists by 49 and putouts by 84! He's not just the best hitter in baseball but probably the best all around player.

2B - Chase Utley; HO - Brandon Phillips
Perhaps the only player that could give Pujols a run at best all-around player is Utley. He has been the best defensive second baseman in all of baseball for several years now and somehow has not won a gold glove yet. I think it is mostly a stereo type thing; people see a slugging second baseman and automatically assume he is a stiff, completely ignoring the fact that he gets to more balls than anyone else out there.

3B - Ryan Zimmerman; HO - Kevin Kouzmanoff
Zimmerman really has no competition for this award, he is similar to Longoria. A great athlete with quick reflexes and a big arm who makes both the spectacular play and the routine one.

SS - JJ Hardy; HO - Ryan Theriot - Hardy, Theriot and Rafael Furcal were all pretty even this year but I'm giving the award to Hardy based on his track record the last few seasons. Hardy would have probably separated himself on his own if he wasn't bench for poor hitting late in the year anyway.

OF - Nyjer Morgan, Randy Winn, Mike Cameron; HO - Colby Rasmus, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence
P - Ubaldo Jimenez; HO - Jason Marquis
Morgan is not only one of the fastest outfielders in the majors, but he also takes perfect routes, allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. Even if his hitting tumbles (which it probably will) he is still a valuable asset. Cameron and Winn are both getting up there in years and while they may have lost a step, they make up for it with intelligent positioning. Both are still at the top of the class in terms of range.

Everybody Should Throw a Cutter

I was recently looking through fangraph's pitching value stats when something struck me. It involved the effectiveness of the cutter, a pitch made famous by Mariano Rivera but thrown by several other pitchers with a great deal of effectiveness.

In the last two year among qualified starters, 17 pitchers can be said to use a cutter often enough that it can be considered a legitimate part of their repertoire. Those 18 pitchers are: Roy Halladay, Scott Feldman, Dan Haren, Jon Lester, John Danks, Andy Pettitte, Chad Billingsley, Jason Marquis, Doug Davis, Jamie Moyer, John Garland, Mark Buehrle, Brian Bannister, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Nick Blackburn, Jarrod Washburn. That is an interesting cross-section of players. We have power pitchers, finesse pitchers, stars, mediocre players, lefties and righties.

The big point however is that these are the only starting pitchers who throw cutters routinely in baseball right now and the striking thing is that all of their cutters are effective. With every other pitch available to a person you will find some that are very good and some that are very bad. For every Zack Greinke slider there is a Braden Looper slider, for every Adam Wainwright curve you have a Joe Saunders. Not so, with the cutter. Out of those 17 pitchers, the worst cutter belongs to Jarrod Washburn, but even his was just barely a below average pitch. Conversely there are a lot of pitchers whose cutters are extremely effective.

Out of the 17 pitchers listed, for nine of them, the cutter is their most effective pitch. Those nine include Halladay, Lester, Haren, Danks, and Pettitte who are some of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Just as interestingly, in zero cases is the cutter the worst pitch in any of those players' repertoire.

The data for the relief pitchers in baseball is actually very similar to this, for most of the players who employ a cutter, it is their best pitch and for almost no one who uses is regularly does it have a negative value.

All of this data seems to suggest that the cutter, in general, is an incredibly useful pitch to learn and use. It seems that more pitchers are learning it every year and it has helped their careers immensely. Scott Feldman only starting using it often this year and turned himself from an average reliever into an above average starter. Roy Halladay's spike in strikeouts recently corresponds directly to his increased use of the cutter. John Danks had a poor rookie season in 2007, learned a cutter in 2008 and turned himself into a borderline all-star. These are perfect examples of how learning this pitch has greatly altered a players career for the better. All of you pitcher out there take note; if you want to become a better pitcher, learn a cutter!

Trades That Should Happen

Just some trades that won't happen during the 2009/2010 baseball season, but ones I think would be beneficial to both teams if they did.

Angels get: Joakim Soria, Gil Meche
Royals get: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden

The Angels get a lockdown closer who can be combined with Kevin Jepsen, Jose Arredondo, Brian Fuentes and Jose Arredondo to recreate the dominant bullpens Los Angeles had early in the decade. With John Lackey most likely out of town this off-season Meche will be a valuable pitcher who should benefit a great deal from moving to a team that can actually play some defense behind him. His FIP is in the low 4's over the last few years which is actually fairly reasonable for his contract which does not have a huge commitment still remaining. The Angels lose several promising young players that do not really fit into their current plans except possibly Conger, who is the highest ceiling player of the group.

Kansas City gives up two players who will either be out of town or too expensive by the time the Royals are competitive again. The Royals will play Wood at shortstop, his natural position and he has the potential of being a huge asset for the franchise if he delivers on some of immense potential. The Royals also have no long-term catching solution in the system and Conger fills that role. Reckling and Walden are both solid pitching prospects with good arms that would be a big help to the franchise if they develop properly. Bourjos has the potential to be an elite defender in center, something this franchise desperately needs and he should be ready by the time Crisp is headed out of town.


Braves get: Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell
Padres get: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel

The Braves have one of the best rotations is baseball but need a little more offensive fire power. Getting Adrian Gonzalez changes the entire dynamic of that lineup, slotting him with McCann, Chipper and McClouth suddenly makes them look dangerous. Getting Bell is just a bonus for bullpen insurance for the inevitable Soriano/Gonzalez injury. The Braves obviously have to give up a lot to get this pair, but they seem to have become annoyed with Escobar's attitude, making him more expendable. Schafer is also blocked now that McLouth is in Atlanta, and Medlen is never going to crack the rotation and Bell is a better fit in the bullpen. Giving up the two electric armed righties (Teheran and Kimbrel) really hurts, but it seems worth the risk to me.

The Padres are not close to being competitive and should cash in on their two valuable trade chips while they can. In Escobar and Schafer they get two up the middle players that they desperately need. Also, both of their offensive games are perfectly suited to the massive park in San Diego. Medlen would actually probably be the Padres best starter as soon as he joins the team. Kimbrel is close to pitching key big league innings already and Teheran's ceiling is higher than just about any pitcher in the minors. The Padres would need a large haul to give up their star player and this package seems like enough to get it done.


Red Sox get: J.J. Hardy, Mitch Stetter
Brewers get: Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson

*I wrote this before the Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez; I think my hypothetical trade would have been much better for the Brewers, but whatever.

The Red Sox have really struggled to fill in shortstop for several years right now and Hardy should be a perfect stopgap until some of their young prospects are ready. Hardy is one of the best defensive shortstops around and was at least a pretty good hitter in '07 and '08 before falling apart some last year. I think in reality he is probably an average hitter for a shortstop which is plenty considering his defense. Stetter gives the Red Sox the lefty specialist they haven't had for a bit, and lets Okajima face both lefties and righties, a role he is better at anyway.

Milwaukee really wants to move Hardy because they believe Alcides Escobar is their longterm shortstop and he is ready. While I think it is a bit silly to trade Hardy when his value is low, like it is now, they do seem like they want to move him. In exchange they get Bowden, a player who is ready to step into a rotation, and should find some success right away in the NL; they also get Lars Anderson, a former top prospect who had a really tough '08 and has lost some hype as a result. This would be a worthwhile gamble on the Brewers, particularly because Anderson plays 1B and it does not seem like Prince Fielder is going to be in Milwaukee all that much longer.


Red Sox get: Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells
Blue Jays get: Jed Lowrie, Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejeda, Bryce Cox

Toronto knows they are going to lose Roy Halladay after the season and they know that as long as Vernon Wells' insane contract is on their books they are pretty much hamstrung from doing anything. In step the Red Sox as one of probably only 3 teams in baseball that can solve both of those problems. The Red Sox make enough revenue to eat Wells' contract and they currently do not have a left fielder anyway, so Wells can have that spot. Wells is not as bad as he was last year and over the next 5 years I wouldn't be surprised if he was as valuable as Bay ends up being anyway. However, the main reason Boston does this trade is obviously Halladay. This would give them a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Matsuzaka and Buchholz... wow. Trading for him early on would also give them the inside track on gaining his services for the next contract he signs, something that would be very appealing to Boston.

The salary dump is not nearly as common in baseball as it is in basketball but this really seems like a necessary move at this point for Toronto. They have a great young core in Lind/Snider/Hill and all of that pitching. Lowrie is probably good enough to start at SS everyday when healthy and the Jays seem unlikely to resign Scutaro anyway. Kalish is no more than a year away from helping in the majors and would take over the centerfield job at that point. Tejada is a fairly high ceiling middle infielder who has not really hit yet but would be a nice prize if he figures it out. Cox showed some serious potential briefly in college but has never lived up to that as a pro. He's fallen off the radar a good bit but as a throw in, he is interesting.


Yankees get: Carl Crawford
Rays get: Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Manny Banuelos

The Yankees desperately want to get younger and with Damon and Matsui's contracts both up this is a golden opportunity for them. Crawford is under contract for two more years and would probably relish the opportunity to play in New York after losing to them for so many years. Crawford would take over Damon's spot in the order and provide better offense and significantly better defense, the Yankees may even toy with the idea of playing him centerfield. Losing Joba Chamberlain is a serious blow but he struggled quite a bit as a starter and Hughes seems like he might actually be the better longterm fit in either the rotation or the pen anyway. Robertson instantly becomes one of the Rays best relievers and Banuelos is one of the under 20 year-old pitchers in minors.

Crawford is getting expensive for the Rays and they have Desmond Jennings practically ready to join the big leagues. They also have Matt Joyce who is probably deserving of some big league time to use in the interim if they felt it was necessary. In Chamberlain the Rays get either a cheap high-ceiling starter, or possibly their long-term solution at closer. They have a ton of young pitching but Chamberlain's ceiling compares to any of them. Robertson would be an upgrade over a number of relievers the Rays were forced to lose last year and Banuelos should be extremely valuable a couple years from now when the next wave of pitching departs the team and they again need to reload.

Yankees get: Zack Greinke, John Buck, Coco Crisp
Royals get: Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner

From the Yankees perspective, the reason to do this trade is obvious. They just won the World Series mostly due to pitching and in this scenario they just saw the Red Sox trade for Roy Halladay and they need to respond. Greinke is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, something the Yankees will always covet. They would obviously do almost anything to get him and this is frankly doing anything. The only player on the active roster they are losing is Cano who does not really fit what the team wants to do at the plate anyway despite his enormous talents. There are actually some solid second baseman on the market this year including Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa and Jerry Hairston who is already in town. However, I may have another idea...

Why should the Royals trade a young, outstanding starting pitcher who is under contract at a reasonable rate for the next three years? Simply, because they have so many holes to fill and the only way they could fill a bunch of them is by trading away a superstar. Cano instantly becomes arguably their best hitter and is a much better than their incumbent second baseman, Alberto Callaspo who is not useless with the bat. Maybe they can move Callaspo to third, Gordon to 1st and Jacobs to the bench, improving their defense and offense in one felt swoop. In Jesus Montero they get arguably the best hitting prospect in baseball. He doesn't have a position really, but his bat will play anywhere and unlike the Yankees, who have Mark Teixeira, first base would be available to him. Austin Jackson is just about major league ready and would already be an improvement over Jose Guillen or Mitch Maier and is at least equal to David Dejesus while being much cheaper. Zach McAllister is about a year away from the majors and should be a durable, mid-rotation starter, while Ian Kennedy would benefit from being out of New York and should be a help at the back of their rotation. Brett Gardner does everything Coco Crisp does but is cheaper and under control for another five years, making him more appealing that Crisp to the Royals.

Yankees get: Rickie Weeks
Brewers get: Chien-Ming Wang, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, George Kontos

The Yankees replace Cano with a player that actually has a higher ceiling and an approach that more resembles the organization's patient philosophy. Weeks obviously comes with a huge amount of injury baggage, but maybe a change of scenery would help things out and in New York he would not have to press so much and could just blend in with the team better. Expectations have dropped significantly for him but he was off to a great start last season and getting him would make the Yankees more willing to deal Cano. Also, the Yankees proved last year that they could win without Wang and Aceves is very replaceable for them. Kontos is an interesting starting pitcher with decent stuff, particularly his secondary pitches, but he is a better fit in the National League.

The Brewers proved last year that they really did not need Weeks to have success, but what they did desperately need was starting pitching. This team essentially had one starting pitcher that wasn't significantly below average last season in Yovani Gallardo. It is not a stretch to say that Wang and Aceves could be their second and third best starters next season. Phil Coke had an alright season as a reliever this year, but he was mostly being used as a lefty specialist which does not make sense because his breaking pitch is his third best offering. Coke showed enough fastball and a good enough changeup to make some believe he could find a home in the back end of a rotation some day and in the NL Central the Brewers could do worse than to try him in the rotation. Kontos gives them another guy close to the majors who could contribute before long.

Cubs get: Brian Roberts
Orioles get: Starlin Castro, Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter

The Cubs have had a massive hole at both second base and at the leadoff spot in the lineup. In Roberts they get a player who is one of the best in the business at both. Despite the Cubs poor 2009 season, the pieces to win are there. Having Soriano and Ramirez around for the whole season, combined with Geovany Soto remembering how to play and Roberts would make their lineup formidable again, and there is nothing wrong with their pitching. None of the players they are giving up here could realistically help them this year, and considering the makeup of their team that has to be a primary concern. All three have good ceilings, but Chicago should be willing to sacrifice that for such a perfect solution as Roberts who is also under a reasonable contract for several years.

The Orioles are still a couple years away from being playoff contenders. They have most of their positions moving forward locked down but shortstop is a massive problem and Castro is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. He could probably be ready by 2011 to do what Elvis Andrus did in 2009 and his bat has a lot more potential than Andrus. While the Orioles have many good young arms, you can never have too many and the extra incentive of getting back Cashner and Carpenter as well would make them willing to deal Roberts.


Mets get: Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski
White Sox get: Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee, Jefry Marte

The Mets want to be able to make a run at the NL East in 2010 (and rightfully so) but really do not have any really good options at 1B or C. However, they do have a couple of players who might be good options in 2011 in Ike Davis (if he learns to hit a curveball) and Josh Thole (if he learns how to catch), so a short-term commitment makes sense. In Konerko and Pierzynski they get two obvious upgrades for 2010 without blocking either of their prospects or making a serious monetary commitment. This is the perfect trade for them to help them make a run at this season and the none of the prospects they are giving up are among the best in the system either.

The White Sox are probably not going to be in the AL Central race in 2010 and should try to turn the expiring deals of Pierzynski and Konerko into something before they depart. Neither is a particularly great player anyway and both are starting to get old so they probably would not be part of the next competitive White Sox team anyway. While I would want different prospects back from the Mets, these three make sense based on their organizational philosophy. Tejada and Marte are high ceiling players with lots of tools and little polish. Both could be great MLB players or never make it at all, but those are the kinds of players they tend to seek out. Gee is more low profile, but given how good the White Sox have been at turning mediocre pitching prospects into big leaguers by teaching them a cutter, I like their chances at developing Gee better than the Mets'


Mets get: Roy Oswalt
Astros get: Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens

This is the first step of the necessary rebuilding the Astros need to realize is overdue. Oswalt has been the face of the franchise along with Berkman for awhile now, but he is past his prime and it is time to trade him before he loses value. The Mets desperately need some starting pitching and this trade lets them get a player to slot in behind Santana. He is a significant upgrade over all their other starting pitchers and they probably would be better off by also pursing John Lackey and that would give them a top 3 that could compete with any NL team. Oswalt would also benefit from moving to a much more pitcher friendly park, allowing him to throw his high fastball more often. Losing Mejia is the biggest risk here as he has potential front of the rotation stuff, however he is not a sure thing.

The Astros will lose their most reliable starter, but in exchange get half a their future rotation back. Niese is a major-league ready mid rotation starter and Mejia has the potential to be much more than that. He is a bit high risk because he is on the short side and his secondary pitches need work, but the quality of his arm is undeniable. Holt could make it as a starter but is more likely a power reliever. Either way he is another valuable arm for this team. The Astros don't really have a longterm middle infielder in their system and Havens looks like he could be a solid shortstop in the bigs.


Athletics get: Lance Berkman
Astros get: Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa

This one seems like a bit of a surprise I'm sure but it actually makes sense. The Athletics are going to be good next year and probably very good the year after that. Berkman is under contract for a not-ridiculous 14 million next season and there is a club option for 2011. The Athletics have a ton of great young pitchers and some solid hitters but they desperately need an offensive centerpiece, like the one Matt Holliday was supposed to be last year. This package they are giving up is full of high ceiling talent but only one player who was a key factor on the major league roster last year in Mazzaro. He is somewhat expendable because their rotation should be Anderson-Cahill-Braden-Gonzalez-X next year. They have plenty of other decent option to fill in that last spot at pretty much the same level Mazzaro would offer. This is a lot of talent to give up, but Berkman is a real impact player and they do not have a true first baseman in the system right now anyway.

This would be a bitter pill for the Astros to swallow, but they are not close to being competitive and should try to get some value back for Berkman. In exchange they get 4 guys who are essentially locks to contribute something at the major league level, and in most cases they have well above average potential. They also get two very intriguing player in Desme and the true gem of the deal Michael Ynoa. Desme is destroying the AFL right now and could easily be a much more well known prospect if he hadn't missed so much time with injuries the last couple of seasons. Ynoa is the ultimate boom or bust prospect. A 6'7 18-year-old with incredible stuff and polish for his age who scouts dream could be a star in the majors. Obviously he is really far away from the majors, at least three full years, but his upside is undeniable.


Giants get: Carlos Lee
Astros get: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin

For a team that is not competitive Carlos Lee's contract is a serious burden. Because of that the Astros should not expect that much of a haul for him, but the Giants should have the ability to take on most of that deal considering Edgar Renteria, Randy Johnson, Randy Winn, and Noah Lowry's contracts come off the books next year. The Giants desperately need offense. This allows them to acquire a very dangerous bat without giving up either of their two young stud starters or either of their two star prospects, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Lee is not much of a defender in left, but for an offense this anemic they should be willing to deal with that.

The Astros are freed from Lee's contract and get some interesting players back. Sanchez has a ton of stuff and every year gets closer to putting it all together. Lewis looks like he is probably a league average hitter with some defensive upside. Romo is already capable of being a solid setup man and Joaquin has the arm to close but not the polish yet. Considering this is mostly a salary dump, the Astros should be pleased to get this much back.




A minor aside

A lot of the deals I've made here center around two teams that have desperately needed to rebuild for awhile now but seem unwilling to do so, the Royals and Astros. In both cases I have only traded away players that would either be past their price, priced out of their market, or simply no longer on the team by the time either franchise is ready to be competitive again. And look at the players each is getting back in exchange for those parts:

Royals: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden, Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner

Astros: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin, Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa, Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens

In both cases that is a serious amount of both high end talent and high probability returns. I think in both cases these franchises would be much better long-term shape if they did these trades although I know they wouldn't happen because only the Marlins have ever shown the ability to truly tear down a roster and build it back up... and it worked for them.