The Royals are Awful

It probably is not news to anyone that the Royals are awful, and have been for a long time. But why? Is it bad luck, bad work from the general manager, players underachieving or a failure to develop good young players? Well, it's time to take a more detailed look at the players and just why this team is so terrible, and maybe, how to make them a bit better.


Defense - First I want to talk about defense. Recently Kansas City GM Dayton Moore made some comments about not understanding or trusting modern defensive metrics and then also traded for known butcher at shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt, because of his defensive ability. This made me think that perhaps the royals as a whole have acquired players that were defensive liabilities without even realizing it. We will skip catcher for now since catcher defense is actually quite difficult to evaluate from afar, however, let's check all the other positions. I will be using UZR/150 and +/- from The Fielding Bible on this season for the purposes of my evaluation.

1B - Has been mostly manned by Billy Butler (-3.2 UZR/150, 0 +/-) but occasionally by Mike Jacobs (2.0, 0). Butler has been a little below average while Jacobs has been a tiny bit above. Nothing ground breaking here, the Royals defense at first has been very close to average.

2B - Has been almost exclusively played by Alberto Callaspo (-11, -18). Callaspo has been dreadful at second base, in fact The Fielding Bible ranks him 35th among all second baseman on the season, an impressive accomplishment when there are only 30 teams in the league.

3B - Has been mostly played by Mark Teahen (-7.8, -6) but Alex Gordon (12, +1) has been back there since returning from the DL. Gordon appears to be fine, his sample size this year is small but past seasons indicate he is probably an average third baseman. Teahen has been well below average and his past seasons indicate that is his true level, meaning he probably should not play third again unless it is an emergency.

SS - Shortstop has been a revolving door for the Royals this year with 269.1 innings from Mike Aviles (-9.9, -1), 227.2 from Willie Bloomquist (-13.8, -3), 166 from Tony Pena Jr. (-13.2, -2), and now 140 from Yuniesky Betancourt (-15.9, -18). Wow. Betancourt's numbers are for the entire season, not just his time with the Royals, but still. Where to begin? Every single one of these players really has no business playing shortstop in the majors. It is possible to get away with this kind of defense if you are playing an elite hitter at shortstop, but not only are all of these players poor fielders, they are all equally terrible with the bat. We will come back to that however when we talk about offense.

LF - Has been played almost completely by David Dejesus (15.6, +5). He is an above average left fielder, the first person we have found on the team that is an asset with the glove.

CF - Early in the year centerfield was played by Coco Crisp (18.5, +15) but since his injury has been patrolled by Mitch Maier (5.1, +1). Losing Crisp has been a big blow as he is one of very few true difference makers in the field, but Maier has been fine. Maier was actually drafted as a catcher so his efforts in CF are actually quite impressive as well. Willie Bloomquist has also logged some innings in center and was about as effective there as he was at shortstop.

RF - Has been mostly Jose Guillen's position (-33, -21). This is another, WOW. That is shockingly awful. Guillen has probably cost the Royals somewhere between 10 and 17 runs with his glove alone in right field this year. Teahen and Bloomquist have also spent a bit of time out there and somehow have been just as bad.

Overview: What we have here is a team currently playing one above average fielder, three average ones, and three really terrible ones. Overall it is pretty obvious that this team is really hurting itself in the field and really has to do something about right field, second base and shortstop. This type of defense from from three players who are responsible for fielding nearly half the balls put in play is completely unacceptable.


Pitching - We have already established that the Royals pitching is not being helped out very much by its defense, particularly on ground balls, so when evaluating their staff it is important to take this into account, and because of that I will be listing their FIP rather than ERA. With that in mind, let's take a look at the key figures on the mound for the Royals.

Zack Greinke (2.15 FIP) - Greinke is having an outstanding season. He has been a very good pitcher since 2007 but appears to be making the proverbial leap this year, and at 25-years-old it is happening almost right on schedule

Gil Meche (4.19) - Meche has been a solid mid rotation starter for the Royals since he signed and although he has not been quite as good this year, and is fairly expensive, Meche is still an asset for this team.

Brian Bannister (3.96) - One of the most cerebral pitchers in baseball, Bannister gets the most out of his ordinary repertoire. He is a perfect player for the Royals, durable, inexpensive and effective.

Kyle Davies (5.69) - A once hot prospect, Davies has not had any success in the majors and time has probably run out on him become an effective major-leaguer. It is time to move on from him or try him in the bullpen, and the Royals seem to have started to figure this out.

Luke Hochever (4.55) - Hochever is not going to turn into the star some thought he might be out of college, but he has been good enough and looks to be part of the rotation for a long time.

Bruce Chen (5.35) and Sidney Ponson (4.68) - These two have been their replacements for Davies, not exactly inspiring but I guess you could do worse.

Evaluation of Starters: This is actually a fairly encouraging sign for the Royals. They have 4/5ths of a rotation established and one of them is a borderline superstar. They need to find a permanent solution for that fifth spot and maybe get a little more depth in the case of an injury, although having Chen, Ponson and DiNardo as options 6-8 is not terrible. Overall this is pretty good.

Joakim Soria (2.21) - Soria is an excellent closer, almost too good for a team in such dire straits.

Ron Mahay/Kyle Farnsworth (4.72, 2.80) - The primary lefty/righty setup options for the Royals are nothing special, and probably a bit more expensive than a team like this should have.

Juan Cruz, Robinson Tejeda, John Bale, Jamey Wright - Out of this group of mostly anonymous middle relievers I can only see Cruz as a legitimate long term fixture in a bullpen. Tejeda has a good arm but massive control problems, while Bale and Wright are just a couple of guys who can occasionally get batters out.

Evaluation of Bullpen: Soria is an absolute stud. After that things get less encouraging. Fixing a bullpen is not the hardest thing to do in the world, although it might take the Royals a bit longer than most teams for reasons that I will show when I talk about their minor league system.


Offense - I'm not going to lie. This is not going to be pretty. The Royals offense is bad, as everybody knows, but it is almost hard to realize just how bad it is until it is broken down by position. Well, here it is, in all the gory details.

C - Miguel Olivo (234/267/456) and John Buck (227/301/436) - Olivo's OBP really is .267, which is such a surprising number I looked it up on multiple sites just to make sure. Buck is not a whole better, but he is in fact better. Nonetheless the Royals seem to continue to give Olivo the bulk of the playing time. There is nothing in his history to show he's even an average defensive catcher and Buck has always had the reputation of a solid glove man; I'm not really sure what is going on here.

1B - Bill Butler (.286/342/453) and Mike Jacobs (216/292/408) - Butler is young enough and shown enough ability that he should continue to play every day. Jacobs however is at best one-half of a platoon and most likely not even that. Butler's production at the moment is not exactly ideal for first base but he should be the least of their worries at this time. The fact that he's learned to play average defense at first is also encouraging.

2B - Alberto Callaspo (298/346/452) - Callaspo has actually be Butler's equal at the bat and that is a good sign considering he plays second base. Offensively, he's very solid, however we have already seen how brutal Callaspo is with the glove. As a result of this he is still a below average player, but still a good ways from replacement level.

3B - Alex Gordon (183/319/233) and Mark Teahen (287/340/434) - Gordon's stats this year are mostly meaningless since he has been on the DL for the vast majority of the season, and given his 2008 performance and pedigree he should continue to receive the bulk of the playing time. Teahen is not that much of a hitter, and as we have seen, not so hot with the glove either. His place is on the bench as a utility player and nothing more.

SS - Mike Aviles (183/208/250), Tony Pena Jr. (098/132/118), Willie Bloomquist (266/311/367) and Yuniesky Betancourt (224/250/296) - Yikes. This group is worth with the bats than they are with their gloves! Aviles was good last year but his track record before that was spotty at best. Betancourt and Bloomquist have proven over the last few years they cannot hit and Pena has proven that he has no business being in the major leagues in any capacity. Something has to be done about this position immediately.

LF - David DeJesus (259/324/409) - Dejesus is not having a very good year for him, but he has established himself as a slightly below average hitter for left field. However, when combined with his above average defense, he is at least a usable player. An upgrade would be nice but it is not a priority.

CF - Coco Crisp (228/336/378) and Mitch Maier (227/304/327) - Crisp is a better hitter than this small sample has shown and is spectacular with the glove. He is firmly entrenched as the team's starter and he should be. Maier has not been much of a hitter, but he has shown some ability in the minors and looks like he might be a solid fourth outfielder with some more experience.

RF - Jose Guillen (245/317/371) - Guillen has been a poor hitter since his first day in Kansas City. Before being signed he had a couple of good seasons sandwiched around a bunch of pretty mediocre ones and his performance should not really be too surprising.

Evaluation of the lineup - What the Royals have is several bad players and a few average ones with nobody better than that. This requires a massive overhaul from top to bottom. Shortstop, catcher and right field in particular need to be addressed.

The Farm - Coming into the season the Royals had an average but improving farm system. Most of their talent lied in the lower minor leagues and therefore was not expected to contribute for awhile. That is still the case however a couple of their players have gone backward and the system is not looking as strong as it did before the season started. They also traded away Daniel Cortes, one of their better pitching prospect, for Yuniesky Betancourt.

Hitters

Mike Moustakas 3B - Moustakas was drafted second overall in 2007 and showed good power and a sound hitting approach at the plate in 2008. His defense at third needed work but he has a strong arm and there is hope he can be an adequate defender. Moving him to first is not really an option because Eric Hosmer (we'll get to him in a minute) plays there. This yea Moustakas' offense has fallen apart however, he's hitting just 254/294/420 in high-A. He is still very young and has a very live bat so no need to panic yet, but it is a red flag.

Eric Hosmer 1B - Hosmer went third overall in 2008 based on the projection of his powerful bat. Well, in his first season he has shown very little power, but a mature hitting approach i low-A. He was recently moved up to high-A despite not really hitting that well in low-A. It is a curious move and I am looking forward to see how it works, although I will admit, it is not something I would have done.

David Lough OF - Lough has been the Royals best position prospect this season, hitting over .300 with power at both high-A and AA. He can probably handle centerfield but might be a better fit in left. He is still pretty raw because he played multiple sports in college and high school and even though he's 23, Lough probably needs to be in the minors until at least opening day 2011.

Evaluation of Hitters - Those are the only offensive players that I can see in the system to be excited about right now. As you can see, none of them play the positions where the biggest needs exist. In fact, they actually all play positions where the Royals are already fairly strong. However, given that none of them are that close to the majors this is not an issue, yet.

Pitchers

Aaron Crow - Crow was drafted 10th overall in 2008 but did not sign. The Royals took him took him 12th overall this season and while they have not signed him yet, they are expected to. While he has not thrown an inning in affiliated ball yet and will be 23 in November, he has a high ceiling and should be a fixture in their rotation for a long time soon. He has an above average fastball and breaking pitch to go with a below average changeup. He should probably be in the rotation by opening day 2011.

Danny Duffy - The 20-year-old lefty has three average pitches and is enjoying a fine season in high-A after dominating low-A last season. He will probably begin next year in AA with an eye on joining the rotation in 2011. As a lefty who gets groundballs and can also record the occasional strikeout, Duffy should develop into a solid mid-rotation starter.

Tim Melville - At one point considered the best prep pitcher in the 2008 class, Melville struggled his senior season, but the Royals took him in the 4th round and gave him 1.25 million to sign. At a lean 6'5 and with a very smooth delivery, Melville is certainly looks the part of a pitcher and his low to mid 90s heater is an above average pitch. He also has an above average curve and serviceable changeup. Melville is enjoying a solid but unspectacular debut in low-A.

Mike Montgomery - Montgomery was drafted in the supplemental first round of 2009 and has been very good in low-A this year. He recently earned a promotion to high-A due to his 2.27 ERA and only one HR allowed in 58 innings. A former basketball player the 6'5 Montgomery is a tremendous athlete for a pitcher but is still growing into his frame. His fastball sits in the low 90s and at this point his changeup is ahead of his breaking ball. Montgomery has the highest ceiling of any Royals pitching prospect, but still has a long way to go.

Evaluation of Pitchers - The Royals actually have a few more solid pitching prospects, but these four are the cream of the crop. None of them are exactly knocking down the door for the majors however. I do think that pitching will eventually be the strength for this team. While normal attrition tells us not all of these pitchers will pan out, none of them have any glaring red flags and there are several other players already in the system that may surprise down the road.


How to fix the Disaster

First of all, I think a little bit of realism is in order. First, the group of players currently on the major league roster is not going to win anything. Second, none of the best prospects in the Royals system are close to the majors so there is no help immediately on the way. As a result of these two factors, it seems obvious to me that Kansas City will not be a competitive team until 2012 at the earliest. It is my belief that the team should try and aim for that year as their first "bounce back" season with the goal of winning a division title in 2013. That may seem like a long way from now, but this team is in such a deep hole I do not see another choice. Here is how I would do it.

Phase 1: Trade any player of any value for high-ceiling prospects who are not yet knocking on the door of the majors. You do not want players about to reach the majors because they are more expensive and right now it is imperative to get max value out of your few resources.

First of all you are going to have to trade Greinke for a huge haul. Greinke is relatively inexpensive, young and under team control for several more years so he should fetch a massive haul. The Royals must look for up the middle assets, particularly at catcher and at shortstop, since those players are the hardest to find. Call up Tampa Bay and ask for a package based around Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings and Reid Brignac. Call the Indians and tell them to build around Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall or the Giants with Posey and Adrianza. For Greinke you should be able to get back two premier hitting prospects and at least 1 premier pitcher plus a couple of lower tier prospects.

Secondly you will have to trade Joakim Soria. After Greinke he is your most valuable asset, and a team that is going to lose does not need an elite closer. Given his age and price, Soria should also fetch a pretty good haul. Maybe the Brewers will part with Alcides Escobar and Brett Lawrie for him when Hoffman is not around anymore. Again it is important to focus on getting hitters, particularly up the middle, defensively sound players if possible.

Finally you should be able to get a couple of mid level players for Gil Meche, Coco Crisp, Alberto Callaspo, David Dejesus, Kyle Farnsworth and Ron Mahay. Do not look for that much in return, again focus on getting some higher ceiling guys if possible, but anything that could conceivably be useful a few years from now would be better than any of these guys long term.

Phase 2: Stop drafting first baseman or players with defensive issues in the top five picks of the draft. Defense matters! Do not just take the player with best bat, take the best all around player. This year was an odd one with very few solid position player prospects available at the time of the draft and Crow was a solid pick, but looking back at past years some criticism is in order. In 2008 they took Eric Hosmer when they really should have taken Buster Posey or Gordon Beckham. In 2007 they took Mike Moustakas when they probably should have taken Matt Wieters. In 2006 it was Hochever over Longoria. I am not opposed to drafting pitchers, but when drafting in the top 3 (as they did these 3 seasons) the past has shown that drafting a hitter, particularly one at a key position on the diamond is the right way to go.

Phase 3: Over the next couple of seasons do not sign any long term contracts. Sign veteran stop gaps to short, cheap deals and then if possible, trade them at the deadline to teams that need them for prospects. It is also important to sign veterans who will provide a good example for young players, that means hard workers who have no problem with being mentors. The key here is to not be on the hook for large amounts of money when your prospects start to reach the majors. This way you can splurge on bigger free agents to fill in that gaps or sign your young players to long term deals.


The Royals are a mess for many reasons and a long way from being competitive. I believe that following the steps I have outline would put them on the right track; they certainly would not be doing any worse than they are now.