Trades That Should Happen

Just some trades that won't happen during the 2009/2010 baseball season, but ones I think would be beneficial to both teams if they did.

Angels get: Joakim Soria, Gil Meche
Royals get: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden

The Angels get a lockdown closer who can be combined with Kevin Jepsen, Jose Arredondo, Brian Fuentes and Jose Arredondo to recreate the dominant bullpens Los Angeles had early in the decade. With John Lackey most likely out of town this off-season Meche will be a valuable pitcher who should benefit a great deal from moving to a team that can actually play some defense behind him. His FIP is in the low 4's over the last few years which is actually fairly reasonable for his contract which does not have a huge commitment still remaining. The Angels lose several promising young players that do not really fit into their current plans except possibly Conger, who is the highest ceiling player of the group.

Kansas City gives up two players who will either be out of town or too expensive by the time the Royals are competitive again. The Royals will play Wood at shortstop, his natural position and he has the potential of being a huge asset for the franchise if he delivers on some of immense potential. The Royals also have no long-term catching solution in the system and Conger fills that role. Reckling and Walden are both solid pitching prospects with good arms that would be a big help to the franchise if they develop properly. Bourjos has the potential to be an elite defender in center, something this franchise desperately needs and he should be ready by the time Crisp is headed out of town.


Braves get: Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell
Padres get: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel

The Braves have one of the best rotations is baseball but need a little more offensive fire power. Getting Adrian Gonzalez changes the entire dynamic of that lineup, slotting him with McCann, Chipper and McClouth suddenly makes them look dangerous. Getting Bell is just a bonus for bullpen insurance for the inevitable Soriano/Gonzalez injury. The Braves obviously have to give up a lot to get this pair, but they seem to have become annoyed with Escobar's attitude, making him more expendable. Schafer is also blocked now that McLouth is in Atlanta, and Medlen is never going to crack the rotation and Bell is a better fit in the bullpen. Giving up the two electric armed righties (Teheran and Kimbrel) really hurts, but it seems worth the risk to me.

The Padres are not close to being competitive and should cash in on their two valuable trade chips while they can. In Escobar and Schafer they get two up the middle players that they desperately need. Also, both of their offensive games are perfectly suited to the massive park in San Diego. Medlen would actually probably be the Padres best starter as soon as he joins the team. Kimbrel is close to pitching key big league innings already and Teheran's ceiling is higher than just about any pitcher in the minors. The Padres would need a large haul to give up their star player and this package seems like enough to get it done.


Red Sox get: J.J. Hardy, Mitch Stetter
Brewers get: Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson

*I wrote this before the Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez; I think my hypothetical trade would have been much better for the Brewers, but whatever.

The Red Sox have really struggled to fill in shortstop for several years right now and Hardy should be a perfect stopgap until some of their young prospects are ready. Hardy is one of the best defensive shortstops around and was at least a pretty good hitter in '07 and '08 before falling apart some last year. I think in reality he is probably an average hitter for a shortstop which is plenty considering his defense. Stetter gives the Red Sox the lefty specialist they haven't had for a bit, and lets Okajima face both lefties and righties, a role he is better at anyway.

Milwaukee really wants to move Hardy because they believe Alcides Escobar is their longterm shortstop and he is ready. While I think it is a bit silly to trade Hardy when his value is low, like it is now, they do seem like they want to move him. In exchange they get Bowden, a player who is ready to step into a rotation, and should find some success right away in the NL; they also get Lars Anderson, a former top prospect who had a really tough '08 and has lost some hype as a result. This would be a worthwhile gamble on the Brewers, particularly because Anderson plays 1B and it does not seem like Prince Fielder is going to be in Milwaukee all that much longer.


Red Sox get: Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells
Blue Jays get: Jed Lowrie, Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejeda, Bryce Cox

Toronto knows they are going to lose Roy Halladay after the season and they know that as long as Vernon Wells' insane contract is on their books they are pretty much hamstrung from doing anything. In step the Red Sox as one of probably only 3 teams in baseball that can solve both of those problems. The Red Sox make enough revenue to eat Wells' contract and they currently do not have a left fielder anyway, so Wells can have that spot. Wells is not as bad as he was last year and over the next 5 years I wouldn't be surprised if he was as valuable as Bay ends up being anyway. However, the main reason Boston does this trade is obviously Halladay. This would give them a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Matsuzaka and Buchholz... wow. Trading for him early on would also give them the inside track on gaining his services for the next contract he signs, something that would be very appealing to Boston.

The salary dump is not nearly as common in baseball as it is in basketball but this really seems like a necessary move at this point for Toronto. They have a great young core in Lind/Snider/Hill and all of that pitching. Lowrie is probably good enough to start at SS everyday when healthy and the Jays seem unlikely to resign Scutaro anyway. Kalish is no more than a year away from helping in the majors and would take over the centerfield job at that point. Tejada is a fairly high ceiling middle infielder who has not really hit yet but would be a nice prize if he figures it out. Cox showed some serious potential briefly in college but has never lived up to that as a pro. He's fallen off the radar a good bit but as a throw in, he is interesting.


Yankees get: Carl Crawford
Rays get: Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Manny Banuelos

The Yankees desperately want to get younger and with Damon and Matsui's contracts both up this is a golden opportunity for them. Crawford is under contract for two more years and would probably relish the opportunity to play in New York after losing to them for so many years. Crawford would take over Damon's spot in the order and provide better offense and significantly better defense, the Yankees may even toy with the idea of playing him centerfield. Losing Joba Chamberlain is a serious blow but he struggled quite a bit as a starter and Hughes seems like he might actually be the better longterm fit in either the rotation or the pen anyway. Robertson instantly becomes one of the Rays best relievers and Banuelos is one of the under 20 year-old pitchers in minors.

Crawford is getting expensive for the Rays and they have Desmond Jennings practically ready to join the big leagues. They also have Matt Joyce who is probably deserving of some big league time to use in the interim if they felt it was necessary. In Chamberlain the Rays get either a cheap high-ceiling starter, or possibly their long-term solution at closer. They have a ton of young pitching but Chamberlain's ceiling compares to any of them. Robertson would be an upgrade over a number of relievers the Rays were forced to lose last year and Banuelos should be extremely valuable a couple years from now when the next wave of pitching departs the team and they again need to reload.

Yankees get: Zack Greinke, John Buck, Coco Crisp
Royals get: Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner

From the Yankees perspective, the reason to do this trade is obvious. They just won the World Series mostly due to pitching and in this scenario they just saw the Red Sox trade for Roy Halladay and they need to respond. Greinke is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, something the Yankees will always covet. They would obviously do almost anything to get him and this is frankly doing anything. The only player on the active roster they are losing is Cano who does not really fit what the team wants to do at the plate anyway despite his enormous talents. There are actually some solid second baseman on the market this year including Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa and Jerry Hairston who is already in town. However, I may have another idea...

Why should the Royals trade a young, outstanding starting pitcher who is under contract at a reasonable rate for the next three years? Simply, because they have so many holes to fill and the only way they could fill a bunch of them is by trading away a superstar. Cano instantly becomes arguably their best hitter and is a much better than their incumbent second baseman, Alberto Callaspo who is not useless with the bat. Maybe they can move Callaspo to third, Gordon to 1st and Jacobs to the bench, improving their defense and offense in one felt swoop. In Jesus Montero they get arguably the best hitting prospect in baseball. He doesn't have a position really, but his bat will play anywhere and unlike the Yankees, who have Mark Teixeira, first base would be available to him. Austin Jackson is just about major league ready and would already be an improvement over Jose Guillen or Mitch Maier and is at least equal to David Dejesus while being much cheaper. Zach McAllister is about a year away from the majors and should be a durable, mid-rotation starter, while Ian Kennedy would benefit from being out of New York and should be a help at the back of their rotation. Brett Gardner does everything Coco Crisp does but is cheaper and under control for another five years, making him more appealing that Crisp to the Royals.

Yankees get: Rickie Weeks
Brewers get: Chien-Ming Wang, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, George Kontos

The Yankees replace Cano with a player that actually has a higher ceiling and an approach that more resembles the organization's patient philosophy. Weeks obviously comes with a huge amount of injury baggage, but maybe a change of scenery would help things out and in New York he would not have to press so much and could just blend in with the team better. Expectations have dropped significantly for him but he was off to a great start last season and getting him would make the Yankees more willing to deal Cano. Also, the Yankees proved last year that they could win without Wang and Aceves is very replaceable for them. Kontos is an interesting starting pitcher with decent stuff, particularly his secondary pitches, but he is a better fit in the National League.

The Brewers proved last year that they really did not need Weeks to have success, but what they did desperately need was starting pitching. This team essentially had one starting pitcher that wasn't significantly below average last season in Yovani Gallardo. It is not a stretch to say that Wang and Aceves could be their second and third best starters next season. Phil Coke had an alright season as a reliever this year, but he was mostly being used as a lefty specialist which does not make sense because his breaking pitch is his third best offering. Coke showed enough fastball and a good enough changeup to make some believe he could find a home in the back end of a rotation some day and in the NL Central the Brewers could do worse than to try him in the rotation. Kontos gives them another guy close to the majors who could contribute before long.

Cubs get: Brian Roberts
Orioles get: Starlin Castro, Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter

The Cubs have had a massive hole at both second base and at the leadoff spot in the lineup. In Roberts they get a player who is one of the best in the business at both. Despite the Cubs poor 2009 season, the pieces to win are there. Having Soriano and Ramirez around for the whole season, combined with Geovany Soto remembering how to play and Roberts would make their lineup formidable again, and there is nothing wrong with their pitching. None of the players they are giving up here could realistically help them this year, and considering the makeup of their team that has to be a primary concern. All three have good ceilings, but Chicago should be willing to sacrifice that for such a perfect solution as Roberts who is also under a reasonable contract for several years.

The Orioles are still a couple years away from being playoff contenders. They have most of their positions moving forward locked down but shortstop is a massive problem and Castro is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. He could probably be ready by 2011 to do what Elvis Andrus did in 2009 and his bat has a lot more potential than Andrus. While the Orioles have many good young arms, you can never have too many and the extra incentive of getting back Cashner and Carpenter as well would make them willing to deal Roberts.


Mets get: Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski
White Sox get: Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee, Jefry Marte

The Mets want to be able to make a run at the NL East in 2010 (and rightfully so) but really do not have any really good options at 1B or C. However, they do have a couple of players who might be good options in 2011 in Ike Davis (if he learns to hit a curveball) and Josh Thole (if he learns how to catch), so a short-term commitment makes sense. In Konerko and Pierzynski they get two obvious upgrades for 2010 without blocking either of their prospects or making a serious monetary commitment. This is the perfect trade for them to help them make a run at this season and the none of the prospects they are giving up are among the best in the system either.

The White Sox are probably not going to be in the AL Central race in 2010 and should try to turn the expiring deals of Pierzynski and Konerko into something before they depart. Neither is a particularly great player anyway and both are starting to get old so they probably would not be part of the next competitive White Sox team anyway. While I would want different prospects back from the Mets, these three make sense based on their organizational philosophy. Tejada and Marte are high ceiling players with lots of tools and little polish. Both could be great MLB players or never make it at all, but those are the kinds of players they tend to seek out. Gee is more low profile, but given how good the White Sox have been at turning mediocre pitching prospects into big leaguers by teaching them a cutter, I like their chances at developing Gee better than the Mets'


Mets get: Roy Oswalt
Astros get: Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens

This is the first step of the necessary rebuilding the Astros need to realize is overdue. Oswalt has been the face of the franchise along with Berkman for awhile now, but he is past his prime and it is time to trade him before he loses value. The Mets desperately need some starting pitching and this trade lets them get a player to slot in behind Santana. He is a significant upgrade over all their other starting pitchers and they probably would be better off by also pursing John Lackey and that would give them a top 3 that could compete with any NL team. Oswalt would also benefit from moving to a much more pitcher friendly park, allowing him to throw his high fastball more often. Losing Mejia is the biggest risk here as he has potential front of the rotation stuff, however he is not a sure thing.

The Astros will lose their most reliable starter, but in exchange get half a their future rotation back. Niese is a major-league ready mid rotation starter and Mejia has the potential to be much more than that. He is a bit high risk because he is on the short side and his secondary pitches need work, but the quality of his arm is undeniable. Holt could make it as a starter but is more likely a power reliever. Either way he is another valuable arm for this team. The Astros don't really have a longterm middle infielder in their system and Havens looks like he could be a solid shortstop in the bigs.


Athletics get: Lance Berkman
Astros get: Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa

This one seems like a bit of a surprise I'm sure but it actually makes sense. The Athletics are going to be good next year and probably very good the year after that. Berkman is under contract for a not-ridiculous 14 million next season and there is a club option for 2011. The Athletics have a ton of great young pitchers and some solid hitters but they desperately need an offensive centerpiece, like the one Matt Holliday was supposed to be last year. This package they are giving up is full of high ceiling talent but only one player who was a key factor on the major league roster last year in Mazzaro. He is somewhat expendable because their rotation should be Anderson-Cahill-Braden-Gonzalez-X next year. They have plenty of other decent option to fill in that last spot at pretty much the same level Mazzaro would offer. This is a lot of talent to give up, but Berkman is a real impact player and they do not have a true first baseman in the system right now anyway.

This would be a bitter pill for the Astros to swallow, but they are not close to being competitive and should try to get some value back for Berkman. In exchange they get 4 guys who are essentially locks to contribute something at the major league level, and in most cases they have well above average potential. They also get two very intriguing player in Desme and the true gem of the deal Michael Ynoa. Desme is destroying the AFL right now and could easily be a much more well known prospect if he hadn't missed so much time with injuries the last couple of seasons. Ynoa is the ultimate boom or bust prospect. A 6'7 18-year-old with incredible stuff and polish for his age who scouts dream could be a star in the majors. Obviously he is really far away from the majors, at least three full years, but his upside is undeniable.


Giants get: Carlos Lee
Astros get: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin

For a team that is not competitive Carlos Lee's contract is a serious burden. Because of that the Astros should not expect that much of a haul for him, but the Giants should have the ability to take on most of that deal considering Edgar Renteria, Randy Johnson, Randy Winn, and Noah Lowry's contracts come off the books next year. The Giants desperately need offense. This allows them to acquire a very dangerous bat without giving up either of their two young stud starters or either of their two star prospects, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Lee is not much of a defender in left, but for an offense this anemic they should be willing to deal with that.

The Astros are freed from Lee's contract and get some interesting players back. Sanchez has a ton of stuff and every year gets closer to putting it all together. Lewis looks like he is probably a league average hitter with some defensive upside. Romo is already capable of being a solid setup man and Joaquin has the arm to close but not the polish yet. Considering this is mostly a salary dump, the Astros should be pleased to get this much back.




A minor aside

A lot of the deals I've made here center around two teams that have desperately needed to rebuild for awhile now but seem unwilling to do so, the Royals and Astros. In both cases I have only traded away players that would either be past their price, priced out of their market, or simply no longer on the team by the time either franchise is ready to be competitive again. And look at the players each is getting back in exchange for those parts:

Royals: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden, Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner

Astros: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin, Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa, Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens

In both cases that is a serious amount of both high end talent and high probability returns. I think in both cases these franchises would be much better long-term shape if they did these trades although I know they wouldn't happen because only the Marlins have ever shown the ability to truly tear down a roster and build it back up... and it worked for them.