I am by no means an expert on Negro League baseball, but it is an interest of mine and I probably know a bit more than most. A lot of people hear the names of the greatest Negro League players in passing but have trouble forming a mental image of who they really are. This is my best effort to assemble the best team possible and give a brief description of the players that made it.
C - Josh Gibson; Almost definitely the greatest catcher ever to play the game. The thing written most about Gibson is his incredible strength. He had strong hands, wrists, forearms, shoulders, legs... everything. He was one of the most disciplined players of his era and was known as a great off-speed pitch hitter in addition to being able to turn on any fastball. He unfortunately died at the age of 35 in 1947, missing out on seeing the color barrier broken. Gibson was a cocky player and although he did not live long he probably would have hit more home runs than any catcher in the game's history regardless.
1B - Mule Suttles - A very different player from Gibson, Suttles boasted just as much power, but used it differently. He was a free-swinger that tried to launch every pitch he saw into the seats, and often succeeded. Suttles was called "Mule" due to his immense size for the time period. Although reports vary, he was probably around 6'3 or 6'4 and well over 200 lbs. A good athlete for his size, he is often listed as an outfielder, but spent most of his career at first base.
2B - Newt Allen - An extraordinarily graceful fielder who had one of the longest careers in the Negro Leagues, Allen is mostly an unknown to all but the biggest of baseball fans. I picture Allen to be a similar type of player on the diamond as a young Roberto Alomar. Fast, with doubles power and a gold glove. He was well-liked in the league, often considered a leader an spark plug for the teams he played for.
3B - Ray Dandridge - Most of the literature on Dandridge references his incredible glove work at the hot corner. He was really more of a shortstop and played there occasionally, but is generally considered a third baseman. He hit a little bit like Paul Molitor, lacing line drives all over the diamond rather than swinging for power, but fielded like Brooks Robinson. Was signed by the Giants late in his career but never made it to the majors, despite dominating the highest level of the white minor leagues for a couple seasons.
SS - Pop Lloyd - Lloyd peaked as a player before the Negro Leagues became truly organized but there is no denying his incredible ability. A contemporary of Honus Wagner's, it is often written that he was an identical player. Big for a shortstop, he had incredible range and speed but also had the ability to whip the bat through the zone and hit for power. He earned the nickname "Pop" by being a mentor to the younger players on his teams, of which there were many because Lloyd played organized ball until he was nearly 50.
LF - Turkey Stearnes - A quiet man, Stearnes is often overlooked among the Negro League greats, but in terms of pure hitting ability, it can be argued he was the best. A left-handed hitter with a graceful uppercut swing, Stearnes is often compared to Williams. While he did not have Williams' impeccable batting eye, Stearnes could hit for both average and power just like The Splendid Splinter. Despite being nicknamed "Turkey" because of the awkward way he ran, Stearnes was an adequate outfielder and had enough speed to steal the occasional base.
CF - Oscar Charleston - Considered by many to be the greatest Negro League player, and also by many as the greatest ever to play in any league. Charleston did everything impossibly well. He had more range than any other centerfielder and a cannon for an arm. He could lead the league in home runs, batting average and steals in the same season. If you could combine Ty Cobb's speed and desire to win with Willie Mays' power and arm it might begin to describe just the kind of player Charleston was. A fierce competitor, he was known for doing whatever it took to win and was not a stranger to getting into fights on the diamond. Off the field he was intelligent and revered by his peers. He was built similar to a young Babe ruth with a huge chest, short arms and short legs. It is truly a shame that we were never able to see him face off against the great white players of the era. Given the opportunity Charleston could be as much of an icon as any of them.
RF - Christobal Torriente - A very similar layer to Charleston in build and ability, although not quite as good. I am cheating a bit, putting torriente in right since he was actually a centerfielder, but he was far too good to leave off this team. Torriente lacked Charleston's power but matched him in defense and ability to hit for average. He is considered by most to be the best player in history from Cuba and still holds many of his home countries' records. Torriente was a bit of a prankster on the field and clearly enjoyed playing the game every day.
bonus CF - Cool Papa Bell - I cannot leave Bell off this team in good conscious so I'm creating an extra spot for him. Bell was similar to a switch hitting Kenny Lofton, but a lot better than Lofton, and faster too. If he had played in the majors he would have a shot at 4,000 hits and probably would have retired with the stolen base record. Bell was absurdly fast even late in his career, and remained a great player deep into his 40s despite not having much power.
P - Rube Foster - The Godfather of the Negro Leagues, Foster, even if he had never played the game, would still be one of the most important men in baseball history. As a player, he was the best pitcher in the early years of the Negro Leagues. He earned his nickname by beating white superstar pitcher Rube Waddell in an exhibition game. Foster had a solid fastball but was most known for outstanding "fadeaway" or changeup. After his career he became a driving force in organizing and maintaining Negro League Baseball until his death in 1930.
P - Satchel Paige - While the debate as to who the greatest Negro League pitcher ever is will never end, my money is on Paige. He always had impeccable control but relied mainly on his blazing fastball during the first part of his career. As he aged he learned how to throw essentially every pitch ever used in a game, and could throw any of them wherever he wanted. Paige actually got to see the majors and posted a combined 123 ERA+ in his age 45 and 46 seasons, representing his team in the all-star game each year.
P - Smokey Joe Williams - Williams was probably the hardest thrower in the Negro Leagues, but he had more than just the great fastball. He also was a fixture on the exhibition circuit where he faced, and often defeated many future Hall of Fame pitchers. Often referred to as "Cyclone" Williams because of his exaggerated full windup.
P - Bullet Rogan - Rogan was the greatest two-way player ever. He was among the greatest pitchers and the greatest hitters of his era. While he routinely hit over .300, it is on the mound where Rogan was a true star. A master of the curveball, he would often use many different version of the pitch, with the most written about being a power 12-6 version. An incredible athlete, Rogan was also probably the greatest fielding pitcher ever to have lived.
That is my brief snapshot of Negro League baseball. For over 50 years some of the games greatest players toiled in relative anonymity. Thankfully some efforts have been made to shed some light on these players and many are now in the Hall of Fame.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
The Greatest Fantasy Baseball Team Ever
The Greatest Fantasy Team, Ever.
Recently a friend of mine who I have played fantasy sports with for almost 10 years now suggested that we should do an "all-time fantasy baseball league." The rules are simple, you can draft any player from any year. You may only use a single season of theirs and no season before 1910 can be used. Using a standard 5x5 scoring system, this is the best I could come up with after digging around for about an hour. It is probably not perfect, but I think it could hold its own against just about anything. Interestingly I would have liked to use Alex Rodriguez at both SS and 3B but that does not work according to the rules unfortunately.
C Mike Piazza 1997 - The best hitting catcher's best season
1B Lou Gehrig 1931 - 163 runs, 184 RBI, just wow
2B Rogers Hornsby 1922 - Chosen instead of his .424 season due to better across the board stats
3B George Brett 1980 - Weakest season on the list, Schmidt never had enough batting average
SS Alex Rodriguez 1998 - A-Rod's incredible 40-40 season
LF Barry Bonds 2001 - 73 HR's and the other stats aren't bad either
CF Ty Cobb 1911 - .420 AVG, 83 steals beats out tons of amazing contenders
RF Babe Ruth 1921 - The greatest player's greatest season, an easy choice
SP Pedro Martinez 1999 - Who cares if it was an offensive era, he was that good
SP Walter Johnson 1913 - 36 W's, 1.14 ERA, 0.78 WHIP for The Big Train
SP Bob Gibson 1968 - The best season from modern baseball's most pitching dominated year
SP Pete Alexander 1915 - Often forgotten superstar nearly matches Johnson's 1913
SP Sandy Koufax 1965 - 382 K's highlight this amazing season
RP Eric Gagne 2003 - 55 saves, 137 K's, 1.20 ERA, 0.69 WHIP = best fantasy closer season ever
RP Dennis Eckersley 1990 - 0.61 ERA, 0.61 WHIP... no, seriously
RP Trevor Hoffman 1998 - Should retire with most saves ever, this was his peak
There are really so many great years I've left out, but looking through a fantasy lens, this is what I have come up with. I may go back and try and determine what the best team would be in real life as opposed to fantasy at some point, but that is a project for another day.
Recently a friend of mine who I have played fantasy sports with for almost 10 years now suggested that we should do an "all-time fantasy baseball league." The rules are simple, you can draft any player from any year. You may only use a single season of theirs and no season before 1910 can be used. Using a standard 5x5 scoring system, this is the best I could come up with after digging around for about an hour. It is probably not perfect, but I think it could hold its own against just about anything. Interestingly I would have liked to use Alex Rodriguez at both SS and 3B but that does not work according to the rules unfortunately.
C Mike Piazza 1997 - The best hitting catcher's best season
1B Lou Gehrig 1931 - 163 runs, 184 RBI, just wow
2B Rogers Hornsby 1922 - Chosen instead of his .424 season due to better across the board stats
3B George Brett 1980 - Weakest season on the list, Schmidt never had enough batting average
SS Alex Rodriguez 1998 - A-Rod's incredible 40-40 season
LF Barry Bonds 2001 - 73 HR's and the other stats aren't bad either
CF Ty Cobb 1911 - .420 AVG, 83 steals beats out tons of amazing contenders
RF Babe Ruth 1921 - The greatest player's greatest season, an easy choice
SP Pedro Martinez 1999 - Who cares if it was an offensive era, he was that good
SP Walter Johnson 1913 - 36 W's, 1.14 ERA, 0.78 WHIP for The Big Train
SP Bob Gibson 1968 - The best season from modern baseball's most pitching dominated year
SP Pete Alexander 1915 - Often forgotten superstar nearly matches Johnson's 1913
SP Sandy Koufax 1965 - 382 K's highlight this amazing season
RP Eric Gagne 2003 - 55 saves, 137 K's, 1.20 ERA, 0.69 WHIP = best fantasy closer season ever
RP Dennis Eckersley 1990 - 0.61 ERA, 0.61 WHIP... no, seriously
RP Trevor Hoffman 1998 - Should retire with most saves ever, this was his peak
There are really so many great years I've left out, but looking through a fantasy lens, this is what I have come up with. I may go back and try and determine what the best team would be in real life as opposed to fantasy at some point, but that is a project for another day.
Phillies Make Great Trade, But Miss Opportunity
First off, I must say that I think the Philadelphia Phillies did a great job to pry Cliff Lee away from the Indians without giving up an "A" prospect (in my opinion). However, I feel like they have missed a golden opportunity to cash in on a player who seems to be desired by other teams and is clearly at peak value right now. That player is J.A. Happ.
The 26-year-old Happ has been a bit of a savior this year for the Phillies, going 7-2 with a sub 3.00 ERA and really has been their best starter for the whole season. However, the underlying data shows that this is most likely a fluke. Happ's FIP (fielding-independant ERA) is 4.19; not a terrible number, but obviously a lot worse than his actual 2.97 ERA. This is due mostly to an absurdly low BABIP of .254 and a very low percentage of stranded runners (83.5%). Both of those figures are nearly a lock to normalize a bit before the season is over, and guaranteed to regress toward average over the course of his career.
However, the bad news for Happ does not end there. Happ is a fairly extreme fly-ball pitcher, posting a GB/FB ratio of 0.76, an ominous sign for someone who pitches in a veritable bandbox. Happ's raw stuff is also nothing spectacular, an 87-91 mph fastball to go with an average slider and changeup.
On the whole, Happ looks like a perfectly decent, but also easily replaceable piece of a rotation. I believe his ceiling is as a #3 starter but he is more likely going to be a #4 or #5. This would put him behind (since traded) Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp on my personal Phillies prospect list (Drabek is also above Happ). If the rumors are to be believed, the Blue Jays and Indians were both more interested in Happ than Carrasco who is four-and-a-half years younger.
I know that Happ is the most major league ready and that has to be taken into consideration for a team that wants to get back to the World Series this year, but I would be willing to bet that in the long run Carrasco proves to be the more valuable player. If all of these teams are as enamored with Happ as they are reported to be, the Phillies should seriously consider letting one of them have him... for the right price of course.
The 26-year-old Happ has been a bit of a savior this year for the Phillies, going 7-2 with a sub 3.00 ERA and really has been their best starter for the whole season. However, the underlying data shows that this is most likely a fluke. Happ's FIP (fielding-independant ERA) is 4.19; not a terrible number, but obviously a lot worse than his actual 2.97 ERA. This is due mostly to an absurdly low BABIP of .254 and a very low percentage of stranded runners (83.5%). Both of those figures are nearly a lock to normalize a bit before the season is over, and guaranteed to regress toward average over the course of his career.
However, the bad news for Happ does not end there. Happ is a fairly extreme fly-ball pitcher, posting a GB/FB ratio of 0.76, an ominous sign for someone who pitches in a veritable bandbox. Happ's raw stuff is also nothing spectacular, an 87-91 mph fastball to go with an average slider and changeup.
On the whole, Happ looks like a perfectly decent, but also easily replaceable piece of a rotation. I believe his ceiling is as a #3 starter but he is more likely going to be a #4 or #5. This would put him behind (since traded) Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp on my personal Phillies prospect list (Drabek is also above Happ). If the rumors are to be believed, the Blue Jays and Indians were both more interested in Happ than Carrasco who is four-and-a-half years younger.
I know that Happ is the most major league ready and that has to be taken into consideration for a team that wants to get back to the World Series this year, but I would be willing to bet that in the long run Carrasco proves to be the more valuable player. If all of these teams are as enamored with Happ as they are reported to be, the Phillies should seriously consider letting one of them have him... for the right price of course.
The Case for Dustin Ackley over Stephen Strasburg
If I was running the Washington Nationals Organization at the time of the June 2009 draft, I would have drafted Dustin Ackley over Stephen Strasburg. While it may seem foolish to pass on a potential once in a lifetime pitcher, the case for Dustin Ackley is much stronger than many would realize on first glance. The first, and most important, factor is price. Ackley is most likely going to sign for somewhere between five and eight million dollars while Strasburg (if he signs at all) is likely to get at least three times that amount. While I vehemetely believe that spending money in the draft is a great way to build a team, in a time where teams are concerned about economics as much as talent, that is a huge some of money. So the debate really comes down to whether you think Strasburg will be that much of a better player than Ackley to justify the difference.
First, I must point out that scouting and amateur player analysis/evaluation improves every single year and I therefore believe that the argument that "past can't-miss pitchers have all failed" is a poor belief. Knowing what we know now it is entirely possible that past flame-outs would be viewed very differently. For the purposes of this comparison I would like to point out that I do believe Strasburg will have a legitimate major league career, and probalby a very good one. But what about Ackley? The Strasburg hype machine has overshadowed him and I believe that the general public does not realize just how good he can be.
The Comparison
First, I think it is important to realize that pitchers, even college ones, more often fail to live up to expectations than hitters. Let's take a look at the drafts from 1997-2006 and compare college pitchers drafted in the top 5 vs. college hitters drafted in the top 5. I have chosen this 10-year stretch because 2006 is the most recent year that a fairly strong opinion of those drafted can be formed
1997
Hitters: Troy Glaus
Pitchers: Jason Grilli
1998
Hitters: Pat Burrell, J.D. Drew
Pitchers: Mark Mulder, Jeff Austin
1999
Hitters: Eric Munson
Pitchers: none
2000
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Adam Johnson, Justin Wayne
2001
Hitters: Mark Teixeira
Pitchers: Mark Prior, Dewon Brazelton
2002
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Brian Bullington
2003
Hitters: Rickie Weeks
Pitchers: Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer
2004
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemenn
2005
Hitters: Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman
Pitchers: none
2006
Hitters: Evan Longoria
Pitchers: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow
So over that time we have 10 college hitters and 17 pitchers.
Of the 10 hitters there are 2 stars (Braun, Teixeira), 4 very good players (Glaus, Burrell, Drew, Zimmerman), 2 Average players (Weeks and Gordon) 1 disappointment (Clement) and 1 bust (Munson).
Of the 14 pitchers there is 1 star (Verlander), 1 very good player (Mulder), 2 average players (Prior and Niemenn), 5 disappointments (Grilli, Stauffer, Hochever, Lincoln, Morrow) and 8 busts (Austin, Johnson, Wayne, Brazelton, Humber, Bullington, Sleeth, Reynolds)
Looking at this, it is undeniable that pitchers are still significantly higher risks than Hitters. Is it true that Strasburg enterred the draft with more than any of these pitchers? Absolutely, but I think it would be naive to deny the underlying risk with selecting a pitcher.
What about Ackley, how does he compare to the other hitters listed here? Well when it comes to power Ackley is unlikely to match the output of the pure sluggers. But Ackley is a different kind of player. He has power (48 extra base hits including 22 home runs in 268 at bats at UNC last year) but it is not his calling card. Ackley's batting average in his three college seasons were: .402, .417, .417. He walked more than he struck out every year and 43/57 stealing bases over his career. Do college stats always translate to the majors? No, not at all. However, Ackley's stats are backed up by excellent old fashioned scouting reports. All of Ackley's tools are either above average or outstanding, including his arm even though he had Tommy John surgery before his junior season.
Put all of this together and you have a potentially special player in Ackley. Not only that, but he is one of the safest picks I've ever seen. What is the worst case scenario with Ackley? Shane Victorino? Looking at the college players who did not live up to expectations, it is revealed that Munson always had contact issues, Clement's highest college average was .348, and Gordon's highest was .372. Additionally, Weeks probably would have developed into a great player if he could have stayed healthy.
So what about Strasburg? He has better stuff than anyone in the majors right now. He wasn't overly worked in college, has good mechanics and by all accounts is a hard worker. He is the best pitching prospect, probably since I have been alive. But, at a price of 20+ million dollars? Call me a wimp but I'd take Ackley. Strasburg's ceiling is higher, but Ackley is no slouch, and at 1/3 the price, he's a bargain.
First, I must point out that scouting and amateur player analysis/evaluation improves every single year and I therefore believe that the argument that "past can't-miss pitchers have all failed" is a poor belief. Knowing what we know now it is entirely possible that past flame-outs would be viewed very differently. For the purposes of this comparison I would like to point out that I do believe Strasburg will have a legitimate major league career, and probalby a very good one. But what about Ackley? The Strasburg hype machine has overshadowed him and I believe that the general public does not realize just how good he can be.
The Comparison
First, I think it is important to realize that pitchers, even college ones, more often fail to live up to expectations than hitters. Let's take a look at the drafts from 1997-2006 and compare college pitchers drafted in the top 5 vs. college hitters drafted in the top 5. I have chosen this 10-year stretch because 2006 is the most recent year that a fairly strong opinion of those drafted can be formed
1997
Hitters: Troy Glaus
Pitchers: Jason Grilli
1998
Hitters: Pat Burrell, J.D. Drew
Pitchers: Mark Mulder, Jeff Austin
1999
Hitters: Eric Munson
Pitchers: none
2000
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Adam Johnson, Justin Wayne
2001
Hitters: Mark Teixeira
Pitchers: Mark Prior, Dewon Brazelton
2002
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Brian Bullington
2003
Hitters: Rickie Weeks
Pitchers: Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer
2004
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemenn
2005
Hitters: Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman
Pitchers: none
2006
Hitters: Evan Longoria
Pitchers: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow
So over that time we have 10 college hitters and 17 pitchers.
Of the 10 hitters there are 2 stars (Braun, Teixeira), 4 very good players (Glaus, Burrell, Drew, Zimmerman), 2 Average players (Weeks and Gordon) 1 disappointment (Clement) and 1 bust (Munson).
Of the 14 pitchers there is 1 star (Verlander), 1 very good player (Mulder), 2 average players (Prior and Niemenn), 5 disappointments (Grilli, Stauffer, Hochever, Lincoln, Morrow) and 8 busts (Austin, Johnson, Wayne, Brazelton, Humber, Bullington, Sleeth, Reynolds)
Looking at this, it is undeniable that pitchers are still significantly higher risks than Hitters. Is it true that Strasburg enterred the draft with more than any of these pitchers? Absolutely, but I think it would be naive to deny the underlying risk with selecting a pitcher.
What about Ackley, how does he compare to the other hitters listed here? Well when it comes to power Ackley is unlikely to match the output of the pure sluggers. But Ackley is a different kind of player. He has power (48 extra base hits including 22 home runs in 268 at bats at UNC last year) but it is not his calling card. Ackley's batting average in his three college seasons were: .402, .417, .417. He walked more than he struck out every year and 43/57 stealing bases over his career. Do college stats always translate to the majors? No, not at all. However, Ackley's stats are backed up by excellent old fashioned scouting reports. All of Ackley's tools are either above average or outstanding, including his arm even though he had Tommy John surgery before his junior season.
Put all of this together and you have a potentially special player in Ackley. Not only that, but he is one of the safest picks I've ever seen. What is the worst case scenario with Ackley? Shane Victorino? Looking at the college players who did not live up to expectations, it is revealed that Munson always had contact issues, Clement's highest college average was .348, and Gordon's highest was .372. Additionally, Weeks probably would have developed into a great player if he could have stayed healthy.
So what about Strasburg? He has better stuff than anyone in the majors right now. He wasn't overly worked in college, has good mechanics and by all accounts is a hard worker. He is the best pitching prospect, probably since I have been alive. But, at a price of 20+ million dollars? Call me a wimp but I'd take Ackley. Strasburg's ceiling is higher, but Ackley is no slouch, and at 1/3 the price, he's a bargain.
Who I would have drafted in '09
I'm going to start with the 15th pick and then take a player every 30 picks thereafter, we'll see how my team does.
#15: Tim Wheeler - Wheeler is a well-coached polished college hitter with plenty of tools; he should hit for a good average with at least average power and plate discipline while being able to steal a handful of bags as well. (actually drafted #32 by Colorado)
2nd choice: Kyle Gibson - Gibson was the second best college pitching prospect for most of the college season but fell a few slots because of an arm injury late in the season, however he should be fine in the long term and would be a good choice at this spot. (actually drafted #22 by Minnesota)
#45: Rich Poythress - Poythress is a big muscular first baseman with a sound approach at the plate; He has good but not incredible power and should also hit for a decent average while playing average defense at first. (actually drafted #51 by Seattle)
2nd choice: Kyle Heckathorn - Heckathorn has great pure arm strength and can touch the mid 90s with his fastball. His other pitches need work but show potential. He struck out more than a batter an inning every year in college and could be an above average starter in the majors or a power reliever. (actually drafted #47 by Milwaukee)
#75: Kyle Seager - Seager got over 700 at bats in three years at North Carolina and earned the reputation of being a team leader and hard worker. He has just enough pop in his bat to survive in the majors and looks like a #2 hitter with his solid plate discipline and contact skills. He lacks ideal power for third base but may be able to stick at 2nd. (actually drafted #82 overall by Seattle)
2nd choice: Max Stassi - see below
#105: Max Stassi - It is rare to find a high school hitter who is both polished and loaded with upside; add in the fact that he is a catcher and it is easy to get excited about having Stassi. He only slipped this far due to signability but at this point in the draft it's worth the risk in a big way. (actually drafted #123 by Oakland)
2nd choice: Josh Spence - Spence is a polished lefty who posted impressive numbers at Arizona State. I typically wouldn't go for "pitchability" guys this early but his strikeout numbers are impressive and he only gave up 3 home runs in 100 innings his junior year, making him much more appealing. (actually drafted #110 by Los Angeles AL)
#135: Adam Warren - Warren played for four years at UNC and hit his stride in his senior season as he gained more consistency with his slider. His fastball is typically low 90s but a bit straight however his slider and changeup both show potential. He also has a softer curve he occasionally mixes in. (actually drafted #135 by New York AL)
2nd choice: Jason Hagerty - Hagerty is a catcher with good size and power potential. He has some holes in his swing but also enough of an idea about the strike zone to be dangerous with the bat. (actually drafted #144 by San Diego)
#165: Rob Lyerly - Lyerly has proven in his last two years at NC State that he can really hit for both average and power. He's not the best pure athlete but at this point in the draft it is rare to find a college bat that looks like he should be able to develop into a major league hitter. (actually drafted #165 by New York AL)
2nd choice: Mark Serrrano - Serrano put up massive strikeout numbers against fairly weak competition at Oral Roberts. He has average stuff with a fastball that sits in the high 80s. He could be a number 5 starter in the big leagues, but I'd be tempted to move him into the pen, hope his stuff kicks up a notch and he turns into a great reliever. (actually drafted # 179 by Cincinnati)
#195: Kendal Volz - After a couple fairly safe picks it is time to try for some more high risk guys. Volz was a potential top 10 prospect coming into the season but his stuff dropped off and he slid hard. This seems like the righ time to grab him and see if you can help him find his previous form. (actually drafted #288 by Boston)
2nd choice: Brian Moran - Moran is another low ceiling lefty but someone who looks like he can get major league hitters out in a bullpen role due to his moxie. In reality I'd be inclined to go more high risk here but Moran is also tempting. (actually drafted #203 by Seattle)
#225: John Younginer - Younginer is only available here because he is a tough sign. With a mid 90s fastball and power breaking ball with promise he's too good to pass up and you would have to try very hard to sign him. (actually drafted #228 by Boston)
2nd choice: Sean Black - Black was a major prospect coming out of high school but did not live up to expectations at Seton Hall. He still shows a solid average fastball and curve, he looks like he could be potent coming out of the bullpen and I'd try him in that role. (actually drafted #225 by New York AL)
#255: Ryan Berry - Rice pitchers do not have a great track record and Berry already had an injury this past year in college but he was one of the most dominant pitchers early in the season and is worth the risk at this point in the draft. (actually drafted #266 by Baltimore)
2nd choice: Tyler Lyons - see below
#285: Tyler Lyons - Lyons' story is the same as Volz in that his stuff has dropped off, but he is still a crafty left-hander who gets grounders and has a chance to bounce back. There's also a subjective element to this selection as I've seen video of Lyons pitch and loved his motion; I feel like he is guaranteed to have great command and see him as a future major leaguer. (actually drafted #315 by New York AL)
2nd choice: Blake Dean - He's probably a DH but comes from a big time school, has hit for power and average while showing good plate discipline... sure I'm sold on that player in the 10th round even without reading a scouting report (because I can't find one). (actually drafted #312 by Minnesota)
#15: Tim Wheeler - Wheeler is a well-coached polished college hitter with plenty of tools; he should hit for a good average with at least average power and plate discipline while being able to steal a handful of bags as well. (actually drafted #32 by Colorado)
2nd choice: Kyle Gibson - Gibson was the second best college pitching prospect for most of the college season but fell a few slots because of an arm injury late in the season, however he should be fine in the long term and would be a good choice at this spot. (actually drafted #22 by Minnesota)
#45: Rich Poythress - Poythress is a big muscular first baseman with a sound approach at the plate; He has good but not incredible power and should also hit for a decent average while playing average defense at first. (actually drafted #51 by Seattle)
2nd choice: Kyle Heckathorn - Heckathorn has great pure arm strength and can touch the mid 90s with his fastball. His other pitches need work but show potential. He struck out more than a batter an inning every year in college and could be an above average starter in the majors or a power reliever. (actually drafted #47 by Milwaukee)
#75: Kyle Seager - Seager got over 700 at bats in three years at North Carolina and earned the reputation of being a team leader and hard worker. He has just enough pop in his bat to survive in the majors and looks like a #2 hitter with his solid plate discipline and contact skills. He lacks ideal power for third base but may be able to stick at 2nd. (actually drafted #82 overall by Seattle)
2nd choice: Max Stassi - see below
#105: Max Stassi - It is rare to find a high school hitter who is both polished and loaded with upside; add in the fact that he is a catcher and it is easy to get excited about having Stassi. He only slipped this far due to signability but at this point in the draft it's worth the risk in a big way. (actually drafted #123 by Oakland)
2nd choice: Josh Spence - Spence is a polished lefty who posted impressive numbers at Arizona State. I typically wouldn't go for "pitchability" guys this early but his strikeout numbers are impressive and he only gave up 3 home runs in 100 innings his junior year, making him much more appealing. (actually drafted #110 by Los Angeles AL)
#135: Adam Warren - Warren played for four years at UNC and hit his stride in his senior season as he gained more consistency with his slider. His fastball is typically low 90s but a bit straight however his slider and changeup both show potential. He also has a softer curve he occasionally mixes in. (actually drafted #135 by New York AL)
2nd choice: Jason Hagerty - Hagerty is a catcher with good size and power potential. He has some holes in his swing but also enough of an idea about the strike zone to be dangerous with the bat. (actually drafted #144 by San Diego)
#165: Rob Lyerly - Lyerly has proven in his last two years at NC State that he can really hit for both average and power. He's not the best pure athlete but at this point in the draft it is rare to find a college bat that looks like he should be able to develop into a major league hitter. (actually drafted #165 by New York AL)
2nd choice: Mark Serrrano - Serrano put up massive strikeout numbers against fairly weak competition at Oral Roberts. He has average stuff with a fastball that sits in the high 80s. He could be a number 5 starter in the big leagues, but I'd be tempted to move him into the pen, hope his stuff kicks up a notch and he turns into a great reliever. (actually drafted # 179 by Cincinnati)
#195: Kendal Volz - After a couple fairly safe picks it is time to try for some more high risk guys. Volz was a potential top 10 prospect coming into the season but his stuff dropped off and he slid hard. This seems like the righ time to grab him and see if you can help him find his previous form. (actually drafted #288 by Boston)
2nd choice: Brian Moran - Moran is another low ceiling lefty but someone who looks like he can get major league hitters out in a bullpen role due to his moxie. In reality I'd be inclined to go more high risk here but Moran is also tempting. (actually drafted #203 by Seattle)
#225: John Younginer - Younginer is only available here because he is a tough sign. With a mid 90s fastball and power breaking ball with promise he's too good to pass up and you would have to try very hard to sign him. (actually drafted #228 by Boston)
2nd choice: Sean Black - Black was a major prospect coming out of high school but did not live up to expectations at Seton Hall. He still shows a solid average fastball and curve, he looks like he could be potent coming out of the bullpen and I'd try him in that role. (actually drafted #225 by New York AL)
#255: Ryan Berry - Rice pitchers do not have a great track record and Berry already had an injury this past year in college but he was one of the most dominant pitchers early in the season and is worth the risk at this point in the draft. (actually drafted #266 by Baltimore)
2nd choice: Tyler Lyons - see below
#285: Tyler Lyons - Lyons' story is the same as Volz in that his stuff has dropped off, but he is still a crafty left-hander who gets grounders and has a chance to bounce back. There's also a subjective element to this selection as I've seen video of Lyons pitch and loved his motion; I feel like he is guaranteed to have great command and see him as a future major leaguer. (actually drafted #315 by New York AL)
2nd choice: Blake Dean - He's probably a DH but comes from a big time school, has hit for power and average while showing good plate discipline... sure I'm sold on that player in the 10th round even without reading a scouting report (because I can't find one). (actually drafted #312 by Minnesota)
Pitching Families
Pitching Families
I was recently going back and reading some of my favorite book (The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract) and noticed a small article in the back I had forgotten about. It was about "pitching families." That is the grouping of pitchers into bunches based on similar characteristics. The original intention of this, according to James, was to find out how a pitcher of a certain type might age through comparing him to similar pitchers. Just for fun I've decided to update this list and put the contemporary pitchers into those famlies. The familes and descriptions are taken directly from his book.
The Tommy John Family - left-handers who have success without overpowering stuff because they keep the ball on the ground and in the park while issuing few walks
- John Lannan, Paul Maholm, Joe Saunders, Kenny Rogers
- Pitchers of this group thrive with good defensive infields and because of this normally have much more success on good teams and struggle mightily on poor teams.
The Lefty Grove Family - Blow them away lefties with big time stuff
- Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, C.C. Sabathia
- These pitches typically take longer to develop and are often unathletic and poor defensively but thrive once they figure it all out
The Bob Feller Family - Power righties who do not give in and are not afraid to walk people
- A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, Matt Cain
- This group is split between those who had really long careers (Nolan Ryan) and those that had to be moved into the bullpen (Goose Gossage, Kerry Wood)
The Tom Seaver Family - Right-handed power pitchers with full, excellent repertoires
- Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett
- This is typically the group that enjoys the most long term success because they have many paths to victory
The Jim Bunning Family - Picture-Perfect Pitchers, sort of the players in the Tom Seaver family without big fastballs but still a solid fastball and lots of other good pitches
- Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt, Chad Billingsley
- This group is typically made up of pitchers with "textbook" motions and excellent control who have long solid careers
The Juan Marichal Family - Guys who will throw any pitch at any speed from any arm angle
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Orlando Hernandez
- This group generally gets plenty of strikeouts but is also very self destructive with walks, or playing bad defense
The Robin Roberts Family - Guys who pitch lots of innings, use their fastball a lot and give up a lot of home runs.
- Curt Schilling, Aaron Harang, Jered Weaver
- These are very efficient, typically fly ball pitchers who can eat a lot of innings
The Don Drysdale Family - Big, scary, intimidating right-handers
- Carlos Zambrano, Josh Johnson
- These guys are usually very good athletes and can normally hit quite well
The Warren Spahn Family - Lefties with easy motions who make getting outs look effortless
- Tom Glavine, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels
- Another group that tends to age well if healthy and is typically made up of good fielding athletes
The Christy Mathewson Family - Control-righties with enough stuff to make batters uncomfortable and a great changeup
- Greg Maddux , James Shields
- This group typically gets outs by changing speeds and working with unusual pitch sequences
The Kevin Brown Family - Sinker-ball pitchers who also get strikeouts
- Brandon Webb, Ubaldo Jimenez
- A rare group, they can completely dominate when they are on but often struggle as their stuff dwindles with age
The Bert Blyleven Family - 125 curveballs per game
- Armando Galarraga, Ian Snell
- Much less common than it used to be, unlike this family's namesake, they typically do not have long careers as the league adjusts to them quickly
The Derek Lowe Family - Pure sinker-ballers who do not strike out many guys and rely on their defenses
- Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Joel Pineiro, Aaron Cook
- Due to low strikeout rates this group struggles when their primary pitch is off, but typically can pitch a lot of innings
I was recently going back and reading some of my favorite book (The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract) and noticed a small article in the back I had forgotten about. It was about "pitching families." That is the grouping of pitchers into bunches based on similar characteristics. The original intention of this, according to James, was to find out how a pitcher of a certain type might age through comparing him to similar pitchers. Just for fun I've decided to update this list and put the contemporary pitchers into those famlies. The familes and descriptions are taken directly from his book.
The Tommy John Family - left-handers who have success without overpowering stuff because they keep the ball on the ground and in the park while issuing few walks
- John Lannan, Paul Maholm, Joe Saunders, Kenny Rogers
- Pitchers of this group thrive with good defensive infields and because of this normally have much more success on good teams and struggle mightily on poor teams.
The Lefty Grove Family - Blow them away lefties with big time stuff
- Randy Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester, C.C. Sabathia
- These pitches typically take longer to develop and are often unathletic and poor defensively but thrive once they figure it all out
The Bob Feller Family - Power righties who do not give in and are not afraid to walk people
- A.J. Burnett, Joba Chamberlain, Matt Cain
- This group is split between those who had really long careers (Nolan Ryan) and those that had to be moved into the bullpen (Goose Gossage, Kerry Wood)
The Tom Seaver Family - Right-handed power pitchers with full, excellent repertoires
- Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett
- This is typically the group that enjoys the most long term success because they have many paths to victory
The Jim Bunning Family - Picture-Perfect Pitchers, sort of the players in the Tom Seaver family without big fastballs but still a solid fastball and lots of other good pitches
- Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt, Chad Billingsley
- This group is typically made up of pitchers with "textbook" motions and excellent control who have long solid careers
The Juan Marichal Family - Guys who will throw any pitch at any speed from any arm angle
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Orlando Hernandez
- This group generally gets plenty of strikeouts but is also very self destructive with walks, or playing bad defense
The Robin Roberts Family - Guys who pitch lots of innings, use their fastball a lot and give up a lot of home runs.
- Curt Schilling, Aaron Harang, Jered Weaver
- These are very efficient, typically fly ball pitchers who can eat a lot of innings
The Don Drysdale Family - Big, scary, intimidating right-handers
- Carlos Zambrano, Josh Johnson
- These guys are usually very good athletes and can normally hit quite well
The Warren Spahn Family - Lefties with easy motions who make getting outs look effortless
- Tom Glavine, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels
- Another group that tends to age well if healthy and is typically made up of good fielding athletes
The Christy Mathewson Family - Control-righties with enough stuff to make batters uncomfortable and a great changeup
- Greg Maddux , James Shields
- This group typically gets outs by changing speeds and working with unusual pitch sequences
The Kevin Brown Family - Sinker-ball pitchers who also get strikeouts
- Brandon Webb, Ubaldo Jimenez
- A rare group, they can completely dominate when they are on but often struggle as their stuff dwindles with age
The Bert Blyleven Family - 125 curveballs per game
- Armando Galarraga, Ian Snell
- Much less common than it used to be, unlike this family's namesake, they typically do not have long careers as the league adjusts to them quickly
The Derek Lowe Family - Pure sinker-ballers who do not strike out many guys and rely on their defenses
- Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, Joel Pineiro, Aaron Cook
- Due to low strikeout rates this group struggles when their primary pitch is off, but typically can pitch a lot of innings
Mid Season Round Up
Halfway through the season look-back at projected standings and how we got where we actually are.
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox; current pace: 98-64; projected result: 93-69
- The bullpen's spectacular season, combined with great performances from Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay have more than made up for disappointing seasons from Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and to a lesser extent Dustin Pedroia.
2. New York Yankees; current pace: 96-66; projected result: 92-70
- Having their healthiest season in years, the Yankees have ridden a hot offense and solid pitching throughout the season. Only Chien-Ming Wang has grossly disappointed, but several role players, including Alfredo Aceves have filled the void.
3. Tampa Bay Rays; current pace: 87- 75; projected result: 88-74
- The bullpen has been a bit of a mess, Scott Kazmir has done very little and Andy Sonnanstine has been awful, but Tampa Bay's offense has exceeded expectations; Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist's huge seasons came out of nowhere.
4. Toronto Blue Jays; current pace: 83-79; projected result: 83-79
- As expected the pitching injuries have hurt the team but Ricky Romero's great rookie campaign and across the board improvement from the whole lineup has kept the team afloat; Adam Lind looks like a young Justin Morneau at the plate.
5. Baltimore Orioles; current pace: 71-91; projected result: 76-86
- The rebuilding is going well in Baltimore, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters have firmly established themselves in the lineup and all of their pitching prospects are having very good seasons in the minors, look out in 2012!
This division has gone almost exactly as expected. Boston and New York remain the powerhouses while Tampa Bay has fallen back slightly as expected, however remains a definite contender. Toronto is a very good team but they are just missing too many key pitchers to keep up with the big boys. Baltimore is looking a lot like Tampa Bay did 3 years ago and could be one of the most exciting teams around very soon.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers; current pace: 88-74; projected result: 80-82
- Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn have had surprising seasons but it is all about the pitching in Detroit; Justin Verlander has bounced back in a big way and Edwin Jackson is having a great year, while rookie Rick Porcello has managed to hold his own.
2. Minnesota Twins; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 85-77
- Jason Kubel has joined the Mauer/Morneau duo to give the lineup 3 legitimate threats and the bullpen remains one of the best in baseball; the young starting rotation has not improved as expected but only Francisco Liriano has really struggled.
3. Chicago White Sox; current pace 83-79; projected result: 78-84
- The lineup hasn't had quite as many blackholes as expected and the pitching has been solid top to bottom; ironically Chicago has nobody having a truly dreadful season and that has been enough to keep them over .500 in a weak division.
4. Kansas City Royals; current pace 70-92; projected result: 76-86
- Losing Alex Gordon for the whole first half turned a below average lineup into an awful one and Zack Greinke's huge season has been unable to mask how terrible every other starter has been this year.
5. Cleveland Indians; current pace 64-98; projected result: 87-75
- Disaster does not even begin to describe Cleveland's season. Even though Grady Sizemore has been injured or ineffective all year, the offense has been fine, however the pitching is another story. Cliff Lee has been the staff ace and pitched by far the best of anyone on the team but is somehow only 4-8. Meanwhile the team's second best starter is Carl Pavano, who sports a 5.36 ERA; behind him things fall completely off a cliff as the Indians have not been able to find anyone to give them even a replacement level performance. The bullpen has not really been any better; closer Kerry Wood has an ERA over 5.00 and the rest of the pen has been so bad Cleveland decided to trade one of their better hitters, Mark DeRosa, for reliever Chris Perez.
The total collapse of Cleveland, and continued struggles of Kansas City have boosted Chicago and Detroit's records a good deal. Other than Cleveland, the division's biggest story is the renaissance of Detroit's pitching. Justin Verlander has re-established himself as one of the league's best while Edwin Jackson is finally delivering on the promise he showed several years ago. None of these teams are actually that good and the winner could be any of the top 3 teams.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; current pace: 91-71; projected result: 87-75
- After all the injuries to the rotation it is amazing the Angels have such a great record; Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins, Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera have made up for Vladimir Guerrero's decline and given the Angels their best offense in years.
1. Texas Rangers; current pace: 91-71; projected result: 75-87
- The Rangers offense has actually been below average with Josh Hamilton out, but they have played great defense in support of a flukishly good pitching staff; it would be a shock if the staff maintains this level of performance in the second half.
3. Seattle Mariners; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 69-93
- Upgraded team defense has resulted in surprising years from Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn while Felix Hernandez is having his best season and David Aardsma has been a revolution at closer; Russ Branyan's huge season has carried the offense.
4. Oakland Athletics; current pace: 69-93; projected result 85-77
- Other than Brett Anderson and Dana Eveland the young pitchers have held their own, but literally every offensive player has been a disappointment, leading to one of the most inept offenses in all of baseball.
The Rangers appear to be a bit of a fluke at this point but Seattle's impressive season is mostly for real. The biggest surprise has been Oakland's complete inability to score runs. The young rotation has shown glimpses of brilliance but it has become obvious that they were mostly too raw for the majors and losing Josh Outman has exacerbated the problem. The Angels now look poised to win the division and probably be mostly unchallenged near the end of the season.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies; current pace: 86-76; projected result: 88-74
- The Phillies season has gone almost exactly as expected, a powerful offense has carried a mediocre pitching staff and should continue to do so; Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels have struggled but Raul Ibanez and J.A. Happ have picked up the slack.
2. Florida Marlins; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 78-84
- The Marlins offense has been a little better than expected as Jorge Cantu continues to surprise and Chris Coghlan has produced more than expected; Josh Johnson is now clearly the leader of a solid young pitching staff with a good bullpen.
3. New York Mets; current pace: 78-84; projected result: 91-71
- No team has been more decimated by injuries than the Mets who have lost 3 of their 5 best players for significant portions of the season, and several other key role players for extended periods; due to the injuries, their struggles are not surprising.
3. Atlanta Braves; current pace: 78-84; projected result: 86-76
- The Braves expected to have a dominant staff that would carry a decent offense, but the pitching has been merely good and the offense has been very poor, mostly due to the struggles of Garrett Anderson, Kelly Johnson and Jordan Schafer.
5. Washington Nationals; current pace: 50-112; projected result: 68-94
- The Nationals can actually hit a little bit, but they have by far the worst pitching in baseball and a defense that only makes the problem worse; only John Lannan and Mike Macdougal have a positive WPA on the entire pitching staff.
The injuries to the Mets have shaken up the division a great deal. Florida's record is perhaps a bit misleading as they have destroyed the Nationals and played well below .500 ball against the rest of the league and that means that Philadelphia is probably the best team in this division by a good margin. However, Philadelphia's pitching is vulnerable and if New York can ever get Jose Reys, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran back they can certainly make a late charge.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals; current pace: 87-75; projected result: 77-85
- AKA Albert Pujols and friends, the Cardinals have enjoyed a nice year thanks mostly due to unexpectedly strong seasons from Colby Rasmus and Ryan Franklin plus a healthy Chris Carpenter, that and Pujols' +9.1 win performance over average.
2. Milwaukee Brewers; current pace: 85-77; projected result: 84-78
- Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo are having monster seasons and so is the 2nd base combination (Rickie Weeks and Casey Mcgeehee); the Brewers rotation is only getting by after Gallardo but that may be enough.
3. Chicago Cubs; current pace 82-80; projected result: 93-69
- The Cubs problems are almost completely due to the offense; Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Mike Fontenot and Milton Bradley have all been either huge disappointments or injured and Rich Harden's struggles have not helped.
4. Cincinnati Reds; current pace: 81-81; projected result: 78-84
- The pitching has been strong as expected, but Joey Votto's huge season (+7.6 wins above average) has made an otherwise poor offense seem respectable, however the Reds' run differential implies they have been lucky to play .500 ball so far.
5. Houston Astros; current pace: 79-83; projected result: 75-87
- Another team playing above its run differential, Houston's offense has been helped by strong seasons from Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada, while Wandy Rodriguez has been the teams' surprising best starter.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates; current pace: 73-89; projected result: 67-95
- Speaking of run differentials, Pittsburgh has played like a .500 team so far thanks to a roster that doesn't have a single true black hole in the rotation or lineup; Pittsburgh has no players more than +2 or -2 wins from average for the season.
Albert Pujols is somehow having another career season and is carrying the Cardinals in a very weak division. Any of the top 4 teams could pull this one out but the Cubs could probably still be considered the favorite since they are the only team that has massively under-performed and they are still only 2.5 games out of first. The other top 3 teams all have more significant holes and it is unlikely that any of them would go on an extended run.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers; current pace: 103-59; projected result: 88-74
- Everything has gone right for the team that did not even need Manny Ramirez; the lineup has been great, the rotation has been good and the pen has been sensational, only Russ Martin has underachieved but it has not mattered at all.
2. San Francisco Giants; current pace: 88-74; projected result: 77-85
- Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been lights out and Pablo Sandoval has provided enough offensive punch to keep the team above .500; this team still has many flaws but the league's best pitching should keep them in the wild card race.
3. Colorado Rockies; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 75-87
- Brad Hawpe's huge season has pushed the offense into above average territory and the rotation has been solid partially due to Jason Marquis playing way over his head; Colorado has the easiest 2nd half schedule and could make a run.
4. San Diego Padres; current pace: 70-92; projected result: 65-97
- The Padres have been bad but Adrian Gonzalez, David Eckstein, Heath Bell and recently traded Scott Hairston kept them from being a disaster; San Diego is not close to being an even average and there is not much help on the way.
5. Arizona Diamondback; current pace: 66-96; projected result: 86-76
- The season got off to a horrible start when ace Brandon Webb was lost for the season on opening day and since then no one has stepped up to fill the void, but most of the blame has to fall on the offense; Chris Young, Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson have all been disasters, and even though Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton are having great years the offense has not gotten it done.
The dodgers were expected to win the division but nobody thought it would be this easy. The Rockies and Giants will be playing for the second while the Padres and Diamondbacks are having to cope with lost seasons. Arizona still has enough young talent to have hope for the future but San Diego is probably going to be bad for a long time. The National League is not as strong as the American, but right now the Dodgers appear to be able to compete with anybody.
AL East
1. Boston Red Sox; current pace: 98-64; projected result: 93-69
- The bullpen's spectacular season, combined with great performances from Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay have more than made up for disappointing seasons from Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and to a lesser extent Dustin Pedroia.
2. New York Yankees; current pace: 96-66; projected result: 92-70
- Having their healthiest season in years, the Yankees have ridden a hot offense and solid pitching throughout the season. Only Chien-Ming Wang has grossly disappointed, but several role players, including Alfredo Aceves have filled the void.
3. Tampa Bay Rays; current pace: 87- 75; projected result: 88-74
- The bullpen has been a bit of a mess, Scott Kazmir has done very little and Andy Sonnanstine has been awful, but Tampa Bay's offense has exceeded expectations; Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist's huge seasons came out of nowhere.
4. Toronto Blue Jays; current pace: 83-79; projected result: 83-79
- As expected the pitching injuries have hurt the team but Ricky Romero's great rookie campaign and across the board improvement from the whole lineup has kept the team afloat; Adam Lind looks like a young Justin Morneau at the plate.
5. Baltimore Orioles; current pace: 71-91; projected result: 76-86
- The rebuilding is going well in Baltimore, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters have firmly established themselves in the lineup and all of their pitching prospects are having very good seasons in the minors, look out in 2012!
This division has gone almost exactly as expected. Boston and New York remain the powerhouses while Tampa Bay has fallen back slightly as expected, however remains a definite contender. Toronto is a very good team but they are just missing too many key pitchers to keep up with the big boys. Baltimore is looking a lot like Tampa Bay did 3 years ago and could be one of the most exciting teams around very soon.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers; current pace: 88-74; projected result: 80-82
- Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn have had surprising seasons but it is all about the pitching in Detroit; Justin Verlander has bounced back in a big way and Edwin Jackson is having a great year, while rookie Rick Porcello has managed to hold his own.
2. Minnesota Twins; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 85-77
- Jason Kubel has joined the Mauer/Morneau duo to give the lineup 3 legitimate threats and the bullpen remains one of the best in baseball; the young starting rotation has not improved as expected but only Francisco Liriano has really struggled.
3. Chicago White Sox; current pace 83-79; projected result: 78-84
- The lineup hasn't had quite as many blackholes as expected and the pitching has been solid top to bottom; ironically Chicago has nobody having a truly dreadful season and that has been enough to keep them over .500 in a weak division.
4. Kansas City Royals; current pace 70-92; projected result: 76-86
- Losing Alex Gordon for the whole first half turned a below average lineup into an awful one and Zack Greinke's huge season has been unable to mask how terrible every other starter has been this year.
5. Cleveland Indians; current pace 64-98; projected result: 87-75
- Disaster does not even begin to describe Cleveland's season. Even though Grady Sizemore has been injured or ineffective all year, the offense has been fine, however the pitching is another story. Cliff Lee has been the staff ace and pitched by far the best of anyone on the team but is somehow only 4-8. Meanwhile the team's second best starter is Carl Pavano, who sports a 5.36 ERA; behind him things fall completely off a cliff as the Indians have not been able to find anyone to give them even a replacement level performance. The bullpen has not really been any better; closer Kerry Wood has an ERA over 5.00 and the rest of the pen has been so bad Cleveland decided to trade one of their better hitters, Mark DeRosa, for reliever Chris Perez.
The total collapse of Cleveland, and continued struggles of Kansas City have boosted Chicago and Detroit's records a good deal. Other than Cleveland, the division's biggest story is the renaissance of Detroit's pitching. Justin Verlander has re-established himself as one of the league's best while Edwin Jackson is finally delivering on the promise he showed several years ago. None of these teams are actually that good and the winner could be any of the top 3 teams.
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; current pace: 91-71; projected result: 87-75
- After all the injuries to the rotation it is amazing the Angels have such a great record; Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins, Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera have made up for Vladimir Guerrero's decline and given the Angels their best offense in years.
1. Texas Rangers; current pace: 91-71; projected result: 75-87
- The Rangers offense has actually been below average with Josh Hamilton out, but they have played great defense in support of a flukishly good pitching staff; it would be a shock if the staff maintains this level of performance in the second half.
3. Seattle Mariners; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 69-93
- Upgraded team defense has resulted in surprising years from Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn while Felix Hernandez is having his best season and David Aardsma has been a revolution at closer; Russ Branyan's huge season has carried the offense.
4. Oakland Athletics; current pace: 69-93; projected result 85-77
- Other than Brett Anderson and Dana Eveland the young pitchers have held their own, but literally every offensive player has been a disappointment, leading to one of the most inept offenses in all of baseball.
The Rangers appear to be a bit of a fluke at this point but Seattle's impressive season is mostly for real. The biggest surprise has been Oakland's complete inability to score runs. The young rotation has shown glimpses of brilliance but it has become obvious that they were mostly too raw for the majors and losing Josh Outman has exacerbated the problem. The Angels now look poised to win the division and probably be mostly unchallenged near the end of the season.
NL East
1. Philadelphia Phillies; current pace: 86-76; projected result: 88-74
- The Phillies season has gone almost exactly as expected, a powerful offense has carried a mediocre pitching staff and should continue to do so; Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels have struggled but Raul Ibanez and J.A. Happ have picked up the slack.
2. Florida Marlins; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 78-84
- The Marlins offense has been a little better than expected as Jorge Cantu continues to surprise and Chris Coghlan has produced more than expected; Josh Johnson is now clearly the leader of a solid young pitching staff with a good bullpen.
3. New York Mets; current pace: 78-84; projected result: 91-71
- No team has been more decimated by injuries than the Mets who have lost 3 of their 5 best players for significant portions of the season, and several other key role players for extended periods; due to the injuries, their struggles are not surprising.
3. Atlanta Braves; current pace: 78-84; projected result: 86-76
- The Braves expected to have a dominant staff that would carry a decent offense, but the pitching has been merely good and the offense has been very poor, mostly due to the struggles of Garrett Anderson, Kelly Johnson and Jordan Schafer.
5. Washington Nationals; current pace: 50-112; projected result: 68-94
- The Nationals can actually hit a little bit, but they have by far the worst pitching in baseball and a defense that only makes the problem worse; only John Lannan and Mike Macdougal have a positive WPA on the entire pitching staff.
The injuries to the Mets have shaken up the division a great deal. Florida's record is perhaps a bit misleading as they have destroyed the Nationals and played well below .500 ball against the rest of the league and that means that Philadelphia is probably the best team in this division by a good margin. However, Philadelphia's pitching is vulnerable and if New York can ever get Jose Reys, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran back they can certainly make a late charge.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals; current pace: 87-75; projected result: 77-85
- AKA Albert Pujols and friends, the Cardinals have enjoyed a nice year thanks mostly due to unexpectedly strong seasons from Colby Rasmus and Ryan Franklin plus a healthy Chris Carpenter, that and Pujols' +9.1 win performance over average.
2. Milwaukee Brewers; current pace: 85-77; projected result: 84-78
- Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo are having monster seasons and so is the 2nd base combination (Rickie Weeks and Casey Mcgeehee); the Brewers rotation is only getting by after Gallardo but that may be enough.
3. Chicago Cubs; current pace 82-80; projected result: 93-69
- The Cubs problems are almost completely due to the offense; Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Mike Fontenot and Milton Bradley have all been either huge disappointments or injured and Rich Harden's struggles have not helped.
4. Cincinnati Reds; current pace: 81-81; projected result: 78-84
- The pitching has been strong as expected, but Joey Votto's huge season (+7.6 wins above average) has made an otherwise poor offense seem respectable, however the Reds' run differential implies they have been lucky to play .500 ball so far.
5. Houston Astros; current pace: 79-83; projected result: 75-87
- Another team playing above its run differential, Houston's offense has been helped by strong seasons from Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada, while Wandy Rodriguez has been the teams' surprising best starter.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates; current pace: 73-89; projected result: 67-95
- Speaking of run differentials, Pittsburgh has played like a .500 team so far thanks to a roster that doesn't have a single true black hole in the rotation or lineup; Pittsburgh has no players more than +2 or -2 wins from average for the season.
Albert Pujols is somehow having another career season and is carrying the Cardinals in a very weak division. Any of the top 4 teams could pull this one out but the Cubs could probably still be considered the favorite since they are the only team that has massively under-performed and they are still only 2.5 games out of first. The other top 3 teams all have more significant holes and it is unlikely that any of them would go on an extended run.
NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers; current pace: 103-59; projected result: 88-74
- Everything has gone right for the team that did not even need Manny Ramirez; the lineup has been great, the rotation has been good and the pen has been sensational, only Russ Martin has underachieved but it has not mattered at all.
2. San Francisco Giants; current pace: 88-74; projected result: 77-85
- Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been lights out and Pablo Sandoval has provided enough offensive punch to keep the team above .500; this team still has many flaws but the league's best pitching should keep them in the wild card race.
3. Colorado Rockies; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 75-87
- Brad Hawpe's huge season has pushed the offense into above average territory and the rotation has been solid partially due to Jason Marquis playing way over his head; Colorado has the easiest 2nd half schedule and could make a run.
4. San Diego Padres; current pace: 70-92; projected result: 65-97
- The Padres have been bad but Adrian Gonzalez, David Eckstein, Heath Bell and recently traded Scott Hairston kept them from being a disaster; San Diego is not close to being an even average and there is not much help on the way.
5. Arizona Diamondback; current pace: 66-96; projected result: 86-76
- The season got off to a horrible start when ace Brandon Webb was lost for the season on opening day and since then no one has stepped up to fill the void, but most of the blame has to fall on the offense; Chris Young, Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson have all been disasters, and even though Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton are having great years the offense has not gotten it done.
The dodgers were expected to win the division but nobody thought it would be this easy. The Rockies and Giants will be playing for the second while the Padres and Diamondbacks are having to cope with lost seasons. Arizona still has enough young talent to have hope for the future but San Diego is probably going to be bad for a long time. The National League is not as strong as the American, but right now the Dodgers appear to be able to compete with anybody.
The All-Prospect Teams, 6/16 Update
Now about halfway into the minor league season is it time to update how the players are doing. All players are listed as I ranked them in March of this year.
The All Prospect First Team
C Matt Wieters BAL - steady - Wieters played well in AAA and is now adjusting in the majors.
C Buster Posey SF - steady - Having a great first professional season in A+.
1b Justin Smoak TEX - slightly rising - Smoak is tearing up AA and is on the cusp of the majors only a year after being drafted
2b Gordon Beckham CWS - steady - Already in the majors, Beckham's power hasn't quite shown up yet but he has had a very good year so far
SS Tim Beckham TB - steady - After a slow start he's starting to show why he was the #1 overall pick in 2008
3B Mike Moustakas KC - steady - Just like last year Moustakas struggled out of the gate but has steadily improved
CI Brett Wallace STL - slightly falling - Hard to fault a guy who is already in AAA, but his bat has not quite been as expected
MI Alcides Escobar MIL - steady - Defensive specialist is showing he may hit enough to be a solid player in the majors
LF Travis Snider TOR - slightly falling - Showed flashes in the majors before demotion but is currently sidelined with an injury
CF Dexter Fowler COL - slightly rising - Shockingly broke camp with the big club and held his own, much sooner than expected
RF Jason Heyward ATL - slightly rising - Showing more power this year, Heyward continues to look like a future star
CF Jordan Schafer ATL - slightly falling - Was pushed way too fast to the majors, now getting needed reps in AAA
COF Matt LaPorta CLE - steady - Mediocre big league cameos have not tarnished big AAA numbers
SP David Price TB - slightly falling - Command and movement on his slider have been inconsistent all year, but still massive potential
SP Tommy Hanson ATL - steady - Destroyed AAA, now trying to get on track in the majors
SP Neftali Feliz TEX - slightly falling - Command regression means Feliz is not quite as close to majors as originally thought
SP Madison Bumgarner SF - slightly rising - Now in AA, career 1.62 ERA in 200 minor league innings is off the charts
SP Brian Matusz BAL - steady - Has dominated A+ as expected, should be seeing AA action very soon
MR Aaron Poreda CWS - slightly rising - Secondary pitches have improved, is now in the big league bullpen
SU Wade Davis TB - steady - Davis has been solid in AAA and will probably get a shot in the majors soon
CL Daniel Bard BOS - rising - Totally dominated AAA, is now having success in the majors
The All Prospect Second Team
C Jesus Montero NYY - rising - 19-year-old is already in AA and has shown improved defense as well
C Carlos Santana CLE - rising - continues to show power and great plate discipline, last year was no fluke
1b Eric Hosmer KC - steady - After a very poor start, Hosmer is showing signs of breaking out
2b Adrian Cardenas OAK - steady - After early struggles in AAA, is now dominating AA
SS Elvis Andrus TEX - steady - Playing right on expectations as a 20-year-old in the majors
3B Pedro Alvarez PIT - slightly falling - Has not been bad, but would have expected more considering easy A+ assignment
CI Mat Gamel MIL - steady - Still raking, still a DH
MI Jason Donald PHI - falling - Has really struggled in AAA, mostly due to chasing too many pitches out of the zone
LF Fernando Martinez NYM - slightly rising - Really mashed in AAA, now in majors even though he is almost definitely not ready
CF Colby Rasmus STL - slightly rising - Has been respectable in majors and has shown steady improvement
RF Mike Stanton FLA - significantly rising - Showed much improved discipline in A+ without sacrificing power, now in AA
CF Cameron Maybin FLA - falling - couldn't stick in majors, has been merely average in AAA since demotion
COF Michael Saunders SEA - steady - Playing well in AAA, really close to being big league ready
SP Trevor Cahill OAK - steady - Rushed hard to the majors but has held his own thanks to great sinker
SP Chris Tillman BAL - slightly rising - Has been even better at AAA than expected, should see him in Baltimore real soon
SP Jarrod Parker ARZ - rising - Only needed 4 starts in A+, fireballer is now pitching well in AA ahead of schedule
SP Brett Anderson OAK - steady - Like Cahill, in the majors way before ready, but has not faired quite as well so far
SP Derek Holland TEX - steady - Trying to learn on job in the majors, stuff is there, consistency is not yet
MR Jose Ceda FLA - falling - Injuries have derailed his 2009 season
SU Jeff Samardzija CHC - steady - Currently starting in AAA, still looks like a reliever long-term
CL Chris Perez STL - steady - Control has been all over the place, but stuff is still filthy
The All Prospect Third Team
C Tyler Flowers CWS - steady - Flowers continues to show a combination of power and patience at AA
C J.P. Arencibia TOR - steady - As expected, over-aggressive approach being exposed at AAA, but still showing huge power potential
1b Logan Morrison FLA - steady - Just came back from injury and has caught fire early in AA
2b Carlos Triunfel SEA - slightly falling - Has been out since early April with a leg injury
SS Reid Brignac TB - slightly rising - Showed improved patience in AAA before injuries forced him into the big leagues
3B Wilmer Flores NYM - steady - 17-year-old is scuffling in low-A, but has done pretty well considering age
CI Lars Anderson BOS - slightly falling - Hasn't done much in AA so far this year but still plenty of time to turn it around
MI Chris Coghlan FLA - slightly rising - After a great start in AAA is holding his own in the majors
LF Nick Weglarz CLE - slightly falling - Still getting his walks but not hitting as expected just yet
CF Aaron Hicks MIN - slightly falling - In a very surprising move, Minnesota has kept Hicks in extended spring training all year
RF Jose Tabata PIT - slightly falling - Just returning from injury, will have to show that bad start was not a sign of things to come
CF Andrew McCutchen PIT - slightly rising - Continues to look like an impact leadoff hitter
COF Andrew Lambo LAD - steady - Slighty underperforming at AA but is young for the league
SP Tim Alderson SF - slightly rising - Now dominating AA, reminds me a lot of Kevin Slowey
SP Jake Arrieta BAL - slightly rising - Just promoted to AAA after great start, all Orioles top pitching prospects having great years
SP Jordan Zimmerman WAS - slightly rising - Has been inconsistent in majors but peripherals indicate the ERA is poised to fall
SP Rick Porcello DET - significantly rising - Not striking out many guys but has a 3.71 ERA in the majors at 20, very impressive
SP Michael Ynoa OAK - steady - Ynoa should be making his debut in SS or rookie ball shortly
MR Jason Motte STL - slightly falling - Has not performed quite as expected but fastball is still averaging 96 and slider is improving
SU Brad Holt NYM - slightly rising - Now in AA, Holt has not slowed down from his hot close to last year
CL Phillipe Aumont SEA - steady - Now officially a reliever, Aumont has the potential to be a dominating closer
The All Prospect Fourth Team
C Lou Marson PHI - steady - Continues to look like a great defensive catcher with enough bat to not be a detriment
C Taylor Teagarden TEX - steady - Another very good defensive catcher with enough hitting ability to be a big league regular
1b Yonder Alonso CIN - steady - Has lost some steam since promotion to AA but his polished bat appears to be as advertised
2b Jemile Weeks OAK - slightly rising - Opened year on DL but has raked at A+ since return
SS Chris Valaika CIN - falling - Appeared too have hit a wall at AAA and is now injured, really rough year so far
3B Dayan Viciedo CWS - slightly falling - Plate discipline issues make him look much farther from majors than originally thought
CI Chris Carter OAK - steady - Having another big offensive season, this time in AA, defense remains a concern
MI Nick Noonan PHI - slightly falling - Struggles at A+ have brought back concerns about his unorthodox swing
LF Nolan Reimold BAL - significantly rising - I was higher on Reimold than most but it appears even I underrated him; destroyed AAA, now slugging .550 in majors
CF Austin Jackson NYY - steady - The lack of power and K's are a concern but it is hard to ignore the .345 average and 12/12 on SB's
RF Josh Reddick BOS - steady - Hitting well in AA but again has spent time on the DL
CF Ben Revere MIN - steady - Keeps doing what he does, lots of singles and stolen bases
COF Aaron Cunningham OAK - steady - Is struggling in the majors after posting so-so numbers in AAA
SP Brett Cecil TOR - steady - Started year on fire but has scuffled in the last month
SP Daniel Cortes KC - slightly falling - Starting to doubt if he'll ever be able to command his powerful arsenal
SP Andrew Brackman NYY - steady - Not great numbers especially considering age (23) and level (low-A), but hasn't missed a start yet and that's more important
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB - steady - Had a great April but has been on the shelf with shoulder issues since
SP Christian Friedrich COL - steady - Has dominated both levels of A-ball as expected, true test comes when he reaches AA
MR James McDonald LAD - steady - Command fell apart in the majors, has righted the ship in AAA
SU Ryan Perry DET - steady - Way too many walks but is getting guys out in the majors
CL Jeremy Jeffress MIL - falling - Command issues are making his off-the-field problems more difficult to tolerate
The All Prospect Fifth Team
C Jason Castro HOU - rising - Astros only outstanding prospect dominated A+ and is now in AA
C Angel Salome MIL - slightly falling - Salome has really struggled to find his swing this year in AAA
1b Freddie Freeman ATL - steady - Having a solid year, expect to see more power in the near future
2b Luis Valbuena CLE - steady - Having trouble translating great AAA performance to the majors
SS Brandon Hicks ATL - falling - Contact issues have gotten far worse, Hicks is in danger of becoming a non-prospect
3B Matt Dominguez FLA - slightly falling - His glove is special but he has not hit at all in A+ this year
CI Angel Villalona SF - steady - I'm much lower on Villalona than most and while he has been respectable this year, my skepticism remains
MI Ivan Dejesus LAD - slightly falling - Injury will cost him all of 2009
LF Dominic Brown PHI - slightly rising - Having a very nice year in A+ so far
CF Desmond Jennings TB - significantly rising - Has jumped more this year than almost anyone; has shown power, patience, speed and most importantly, health
RF Daryl Jones STL - steady - Power has slid backwards a bit, but still a respectable season so far
CF Drew Stubbs CIN - slightly rising - Potential gold glover is figuring out how to be a leadoff hitter in AAA
COF Greg Halman SEA - significantly falling - I don't care if he has 13 home runs, he's hitting .183 and has struck out in roughly half his AB's
SP Jon Niese NYM - slightly falling - Has looked very hittable in AAA and the majors this year
SP Gio Gonzalez OAK - steady - Has great stuff, but still cannot control it well enough to win in the majors
SP Michael Bowden BOS - steady - Solid year at AAA, looks nearly ready to be mid-rotation big leaguer
SP Michael Main TEX - falling - Main is having a nightmare season at A+
SP Mat Latos SD - significantly rising - The stuff was always there, but Latos is turning himself into a complete pitcher; ERA under 1.00 this year
MR Mark Melancon NYY - steady - Has been very good at AAA, command vacated him in brief majors stint
SU Jordan Walden LAA - steady - Has shown signs recently that he's breaking out after a poor start
CL Cole Rohrbough ATL - slightly falling - Has been a little too hittable for someone with his stuff
The biggest movers up so far have been Brandon Jennings, Mike Stanton, Rick Porcello, Nolan Reimold and Mat Latos.
Only one player got the "significantly falling" tag, Greg Halman who I was never a huge believer in anyway, I threw him into the last OF spot due to the upside but probably should not have.
The All Prospect First Team
C Matt Wieters BAL - steady - Wieters played well in AAA and is now adjusting in the majors.
C Buster Posey SF - steady - Having a great first professional season in A+.
1b Justin Smoak TEX - slightly rising - Smoak is tearing up AA and is on the cusp of the majors only a year after being drafted
2b Gordon Beckham CWS - steady - Already in the majors, Beckham's power hasn't quite shown up yet but he has had a very good year so far
SS Tim Beckham TB - steady - After a slow start he's starting to show why he was the #1 overall pick in 2008
3B Mike Moustakas KC - steady - Just like last year Moustakas struggled out of the gate but has steadily improved
CI Brett Wallace STL - slightly falling - Hard to fault a guy who is already in AAA, but his bat has not quite been as expected
MI Alcides Escobar MIL - steady - Defensive specialist is showing he may hit enough to be a solid player in the majors
LF Travis Snider TOR - slightly falling - Showed flashes in the majors before demotion but is currently sidelined with an injury
CF Dexter Fowler COL - slightly rising - Shockingly broke camp with the big club and held his own, much sooner than expected
RF Jason Heyward ATL - slightly rising - Showing more power this year, Heyward continues to look like a future star
CF Jordan Schafer ATL - slightly falling - Was pushed way too fast to the majors, now getting needed reps in AAA
COF Matt LaPorta CLE - steady - Mediocre big league cameos have not tarnished big AAA numbers
SP David Price TB - slightly falling - Command and movement on his slider have been inconsistent all year, but still massive potential
SP Tommy Hanson ATL - steady - Destroyed AAA, now trying to get on track in the majors
SP Neftali Feliz TEX - slightly falling - Command regression means Feliz is not quite as close to majors as originally thought
SP Madison Bumgarner SF - slightly rising - Now in AA, career 1.62 ERA in 200 minor league innings is off the charts
SP Brian Matusz BAL - steady - Has dominated A+ as expected, should be seeing AA action very soon
MR Aaron Poreda CWS - slightly rising - Secondary pitches have improved, is now in the big league bullpen
SU Wade Davis TB - steady - Davis has been solid in AAA and will probably get a shot in the majors soon
CL Daniel Bard BOS - rising - Totally dominated AAA, is now having success in the majors
The All Prospect Second Team
C Jesus Montero NYY - rising - 19-year-old is already in AA and has shown improved defense as well
C Carlos Santana CLE - rising - continues to show power and great plate discipline, last year was no fluke
1b Eric Hosmer KC - steady - After a very poor start, Hosmer is showing signs of breaking out
2b Adrian Cardenas OAK - steady - After early struggles in AAA, is now dominating AA
SS Elvis Andrus TEX - steady - Playing right on expectations as a 20-year-old in the majors
3B Pedro Alvarez PIT - slightly falling - Has not been bad, but would have expected more considering easy A+ assignment
CI Mat Gamel MIL - steady - Still raking, still a DH
MI Jason Donald PHI - falling - Has really struggled in AAA, mostly due to chasing too many pitches out of the zone
LF Fernando Martinez NYM - slightly rising - Really mashed in AAA, now in majors even though he is almost definitely not ready
CF Colby Rasmus STL - slightly rising - Has been respectable in majors and has shown steady improvement
RF Mike Stanton FLA - significantly rising - Showed much improved discipline in A+ without sacrificing power, now in AA
CF Cameron Maybin FLA - falling - couldn't stick in majors, has been merely average in AAA since demotion
COF Michael Saunders SEA - steady - Playing well in AAA, really close to being big league ready
SP Trevor Cahill OAK - steady - Rushed hard to the majors but has held his own thanks to great sinker
SP Chris Tillman BAL - slightly rising - Has been even better at AAA than expected, should see him in Baltimore real soon
SP Jarrod Parker ARZ - rising - Only needed 4 starts in A+, fireballer is now pitching well in AA ahead of schedule
SP Brett Anderson OAK - steady - Like Cahill, in the majors way before ready, but has not faired quite as well so far
SP Derek Holland TEX - steady - Trying to learn on job in the majors, stuff is there, consistency is not yet
MR Jose Ceda FLA - falling - Injuries have derailed his 2009 season
SU Jeff Samardzija CHC - steady - Currently starting in AAA, still looks like a reliever long-term
CL Chris Perez STL - steady - Control has been all over the place, but stuff is still filthy
The All Prospect Third Team
C Tyler Flowers CWS - steady - Flowers continues to show a combination of power and patience at AA
C J.P. Arencibia TOR - steady - As expected, over-aggressive approach being exposed at AAA, but still showing huge power potential
1b Logan Morrison FLA - steady - Just came back from injury and has caught fire early in AA
2b Carlos Triunfel SEA - slightly falling - Has been out since early April with a leg injury
SS Reid Brignac TB - slightly rising - Showed improved patience in AAA before injuries forced him into the big leagues
3B Wilmer Flores NYM - steady - 17-year-old is scuffling in low-A, but has done pretty well considering age
CI Lars Anderson BOS - slightly falling - Hasn't done much in AA so far this year but still plenty of time to turn it around
MI Chris Coghlan FLA - slightly rising - After a great start in AAA is holding his own in the majors
LF Nick Weglarz CLE - slightly falling - Still getting his walks but not hitting as expected just yet
CF Aaron Hicks MIN - slightly falling - In a very surprising move, Minnesota has kept Hicks in extended spring training all year
RF Jose Tabata PIT - slightly falling - Just returning from injury, will have to show that bad start was not a sign of things to come
CF Andrew McCutchen PIT - slightly rising - Continues to look like an impact leadoff hitter
COF Andrew Lambo LAD - steady - Slighty underperforming at AA but is young for the league
SP Tim Alderson SF - slightly rising - Now dominating AA, reminds me a lot of Kevin Slowey
SP Jake Arrieta BAL - slightly rising - Just promoted to AAA after great start, all Orioles top pitching prospects having great years
SP Jordan Zimmerman WAS - slightly rising - Has been inconsistent in majors but peripherals indicate the ERA is poised to fall
SP Rick Porcello DET - significantly rising - Not striking out many guys but has a 3.71 ERA in the majors at 20, very impressive
SP Michael Ynoa OAK - steady - Ynoa should be making his debut in SS or rookie ball shortly
MR Jason Motte STL - slightly falling - Has not performed quite as expected but fastball is still averaging 96 and slider is improving
SU Brad Holt NYM - slightly rising - Now in AA, Holt has not slowed down from his hot close to last year
CL Phillipe Aumont SEA - steady - Now officially a reliever, Aumont has the potential to be a dominating closer
The All Prospect Fourth Team
C Lou Marson PHI - steady - Continues to look like a great defensive catcher with enough bat to not be a detriment
C Taylor Teagarden TEX - steady - Another very good defensive catcher with enough hitting ability to be a big league regular
1b Yonder Alonso CIN - steady - Has lost some steam since promotion to AA but his polished bat appears to be as advertised
2b Jemile Weeks OAK - slightly rising - Opened year on DL but has raked at A+ since return
SS Chris Valaika CIN - falling - Appeared too have hit a wall at AAA and is now injured, really rough year so far
3B Dayan Viciedo CWS - slightly falling - Plate discipline issues make him look much farther from majors than originally thought
CI Chris Carter OAK - steady - Having another big offensive season, this time in AA, defense remains a concern
MI Nick Noonan PHI - slightly falling - Struggles at A+ have brought back concerns about his unorthodox swing
LF Nolan Reimold BAL - significantly rising - I was higher on Reimold than most but it appears even I underrated him; destroyed AAA, now slugging .550 in majors
CF Austin Jackson NYY - steady - The lack of power and K's are a concern but it is hard to ignore the .345 average and 12/12 on SB's
RF Josh Reddick BOS - steady - Hitting well in AA but again has spent time on the DL
CF Ben Revere MIN - steady - Keeps doing what he does, lots of singles and stolen bases
COF Aaron Cunningham OAK - steady - Is struggling in the majors after posting so-so numbers in AAA
SP Brett Cecil TOR - steady - Started year on fire but has scuffled in the last month
SP Daniel Cortes KC - slightly falling - Starting to doubt if he'll ever be able to command his powerful arsenal
SP Andrew Brackman NYY - steady - Not great numbers especially considering age (23) and level (low-A), but hasn't missed a start yet and that's more important
SP Jeremy Hellickson TB - steady - Had a great April but has been on the shelf with shoulder issues since
SP Christian Friedrich COL - steady - Has dominated both levels of A-ball as expected, true test comes when he reaches AA
MR James McDonald LAD - steady - Command fell apart in the majors, has righted the ship in AAA
SU Ryan Perry DET - steady - Way too many walks but is getting guys out in the majors
CL Jeremy Jeffress MIL - falling - Command issues are making his off-the-field problems more difficult to tolerate
The All Prospect Fifth Team
C Jason Castro HOU - rising - Astros only outstanding prospect dominated A+ and is now in AA
C Angel Salome MIL - slightly falling - Salome has really struggled to find his swing this year in AAA
1b Freddie Freeman ATL - steady - Having a solid year, expect to see more power in the near future
2b Luis Valbuena CLE - steady - Having trouble translating great AAA performance to the majors
SS Brandon Hicks ATL - falling - Contact issues have gotten far worse, Hicks is in danger of becoming a non-prospect
3B Matt Dominguez FLA - slightly falling - His glove is special but he has not hit at all in A+ this year
CI Angel Villalona SF - steady - I'm much lower on Villalona than most and while he has been respectable this year, my skepticism remains
MI Ivan Dejesus LAD - slightly falling - Injury will cost him all of 2009
LF Dominic Brown PHI - slightly rising - Having a very nice year in A+ so far
CF Desmond Jennings TB - significantly rising - Has jumped more this year than almost anyone; has shown power, patience, speed and most importantly, health
RF Daryl Jones STL - steady - Power has slid backwards a bit, but still a respectable season so far
CF Drew Stubbs CIN - slightly rising - Potential gold glover is figuring out how to be a leadoff hitter in AAA
COF Greg Halman SEA - significantly falling - I don't care if he has 13 home runs, he's hitting .183 and has struck out in roughly half his AB's
SP Jon Niese NYM - slightly falling - Has looked very hittable in AAA and the majors this year
SP Gio Gonzalez OAK - steady - Has great stuff, but still cannot control it well enough to win in the majors
SP Michael Bowden BOS - steady - Solid year at AAA, looks nearly ready to be mid-rotation big leaguer
SP Michael Main TEX - falling - Main is having a nightmare season at A+
SP Mat Latos SD - significantly rising - The stuff was always there, but Latos is turning himself into a complete pitcher; ERA under 1.00 this year
MR Mark Melancon NYY - steady - Has been very good at AAA, command vacated him in brief majors stint
SU Jordan Walden LAA - steady - Has shown signs recently that he's breaking out after a poor start
CL Cole Rohrbough ATL - slightly falling - Has been a little too hittable for someone with his stuff
The biggest movers up so far have been Brandon Jennings, Mike Stanton, Rick Porcello, Nolan Reimold and Mat Latos.
Only one player got the "significantly falling" tag, Greg Halman who I was never a huge believer in anyway, I threw him into the last OF spot due to the upside but probably should not have.
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