Well, all of those other articles have led up to this. Who has done the best job in the all-time player draft. I outlined my method for analysis in the last article and will now show exactly how everyone did using the new developed stat, ACV.
Catchers
1. Johnny Bench - Dennis - 141.7
2. Mike Piazza - Jimmy - 141.5
3. Yogi Berra - Anthony - 136.4
4. Mickey Cochrane - Andy - 136.4
5. Roy Campanella - Brian - 133.4
6. Ivan Rodriguez - Adam - 127.8
Bench is the obvious choice for best catcher ever and ACV agrees. Piazza however, it extremely close based on his vastly superior hitting ability and passable defense. Campy's inconsistencies and Pudge's awful OBP bring them down to the bottom of this group.
First Baseman
1. Lou Gehrig - Andy - 169.7
2. Jimmie Foxx - Jimmy - 160.8
3. Albert Pujols - Adam - 146.3
4. Hank Greenberg - Dennis - 143.6
5. Willie McCovey - Brian - 140.1
6. Pete Rose - Anthony - 132.0
Again first place is obvious and in this case second is as well. Pujols' third place performance is pretty incredible considering he's probably only halfway through his career. If the second half is anywhere near as good as the first he'll top this list when he's done. Rose's lack of power and only average OBP drops him behind the pack.
Second Baseman
1. Rogers Hornsby - Andy - 160.2
2. Eddie Collins - Jimmy - 159.7
3. Napoleon Lajoie - Adam - 155.6
4. Jackie Robinson - Brian - 140.8
5. Joe Morgan - Anthony - 138.2
6. Roberto Alomar - Dennis - 128.4
Hornsby poor defense and surly attitude are not enough to knock him from the top spot. Robinson jumped ahead of Morgan after being credited with some time missed due to the color barrier. Lajoie rates surprisingly well, he could really hit and wasn' too bad with the glove either. Alomar really wasn't in the same league as these guys and ACV shows that.
Third Baseman
1. Mike Schmidt - Jimmy - 153.4
2. George Brett - Dennis - 144.9
3. Eddie Mathews - Andy - 142.2
4. Harmon Killebew - Brian - 137.5
5. Cal Ripken Jr. - Adam - 123.5
6. Brooks Robinson - Anthony - 118.2
The top three were fairly obvious although I expected Brett to be closer to Schmidt than to Mathews. Killebrew's powerful offense and awful glove appear to be better overall than Robinson's lack of offense and gold glove. For all of the credit Ripken was given, he really was not that exceptional of a hitter and I think his rating is appropriate.
Shortstop
1. Honus Wanger - Jimmy - 170.6
2. Alex Rodriguez - Brian - 145.2
3. Barry Larkin - Andy - 130.6
4. Ernie Banks - Dennis - 125.0
5. Derek Jeter - Adam - 123.9
6. Ozzie Smith - Anthony - 111.2
This simply illustrates the greatness of Honus Wagner who is arguably the greatest all-around player ever. A-Rod is head and shoulders above everyone else; I think many would be surprised by Larkin ranking ahead of Banks and Jeter. He ranks ahead of Jeter almost completely because of the difference in defense between them. He is ahead of Banks also because of defense, and Banks' OBP really hurts him. Ozzie Smith was incredible with the glove but was a well below league average hitter for his career and now amount of glovework can make up for that when being compared to all-time greats.
Left Field
1. Barry Bonds - Brian - 191.1
2. Stan Musial - Jimmy - 171.5
3. Hank Aaron - Anthony - 170.9
4. Rickey Henderson - Adam - 139.0
5. Carl Yastrzemski - Andy - 138.8
6. Al Simmons - Dennis - 136.4
Three all-timers here... similar to Hornsby, Bonds' attitude is not enough to bring him down that much and unlike Hornsby he played very good defense. The second three were all very different players playing in completely different eras but rate pretty close to evenly.
Center Field
1. Willie Mays - Dennis - 177.3
2. Tris Speaker - Andy - 176.0
3. Mickey Mantle - Brian - 173.0
4. Ken Griffey Jr. - Adam - 149.5
5. Duke Snider - Anthony - 140.5
6. Earl Averill - Jimmy - 136.8
The deepest position in all of baseball, is still impressive despite Cobb and Dimaggio being drafted for other positions. Perhaps the only surprise of this group is just how highly Speaker rates, but I think that is mostly a product of just how amazing of a player he was getting lost to time a bit.
Right Field
1. Ty Cobb - Dennis - 181.0
2. Frank Robinson - Anthony - 158.6
3. Mel Ott - Andy - 155.0
4. Joe Jackson - Brian - 141.2
5. Dave Winfield - Adam - 139.9
6. Vladimir Guerrero - Jimmy - 139.2
With Babe playing DH, the out of position Cobb is easily the best person playing right-field. Joe Jackson had just barely over half a career and Vladimir Guerrero probably still has some production left, but they both compare pretty well to Dave Winfield who played much longer.
Designated Hitter
1. Babe Ruth - Anthony - 195.6 (197.6)
2. Ted Williams - Adam - 186.0 (189.0)
3. Frank Thomas - Jimmy - 148.0 (148.0)
4. Joe Dimaggio - Dennis 146.0 (161.0)
5. Manny Ramirez - Brian - 141.1 (142.1)
6. Willie Stargell - Andy - 136.4 (138.4)
The numbers in parenthesis are what their values would be if defense was a factor. Ruth and Williams are two of the best hitters ever and rate as such. Thomas, purely as a hitter was a better player than Dimaggio but clearly Dimaggio was better all around. Ramirez and Stargell were both great hitters, but I think it is fair that Ramirez rates just a bit higher.
Backup Catcher
1. Gabby Hartnett - Dennis - 139.9
2. Bill Dickey - Jimmy - 138.0
3. Gary Carter - Brian - 132.5
4. Carlton Fisk - Andy - 130.8
5. Craig Biggio - Adam - 124.8
6. Thurman Munson - Anthony - 122.4
Hartnett and Dickey rate higher than all the starting catchers except Bench and Piazza, including Berra. This really surprised me. Is it possible Berra has become overrated in time because he was so likable and played for so many World Series Champions? Is it also possible that Hartnett became underrated playing for Cubs teams that never really won anything and Dickey got overshadowed by Berra who had so many more Championships? Sure it's possible, I don't know if it is true or not but my system objectively rates both of them better than Berra. Everyone else seems to fit in where they are expected to be.
Backup IF
1. Jeff Bagwell - Jimmy - 147.5
2. Mark McGwire - Brian -142.6
3. Rafael Palmeiro - Dennis - 137.1
3. Chipper Jones - Anthony - 137.1
5. Lou Boudreau - Adam - 129.1
6. Ryne Sandberg - Andy - 125.3
The slugging corner infielders rate higher than the slick fielding up the middle players here. Bagwell, like Thomas, has become underrated in history very quickly. Both of these players were the best hitters in their leagues in their primes. Jones will probably end up close to Mark McGwire by the end of his career. While the middle infielders do not score as highly, their versatility will come in handy during the overall team scores for reasons that will be explained later.
Backup Outfield
1. Sam Crawford - Jimmy - 145.8
2. Dick Allen - Brian - 138.1
3. Roberto Clemente - Dennis - 132.5
4. Tony Gwynn - Adam - 132.5
5. Hack Wilson - Anthony - 127.4
6. Dale Murphy - Andy - 122.8
Crawford was one of the games first great power hitters and Allen could really mash as well. Clemente has been overrated in history for many reasons, but the fact remains that he was a free swinger who did not actually have much power or range in the field. Still an all-time great but I feel his ranking is appropriate. Wilson's career was not long enough and Murphy's not exceptional enough to quite keep up with the others listed here.
Backup Util
1. Johnny Mize - Brian - 149.7
2. Arky Vaughan - Jimmy - 144.1
3. Al Kaline - Dennis - 138.7
4. Eddie Murray - Adam - 136.0
5. Wade Boggs - Andy - 134.6
6. Robin Yount - Anthony - 128.4
At the top we have two of the most underrated players in history. Mize was a sensational hitter who lost time due to the war and got lost in the shuffle a bit because there were so many other great players in his era. Vaughan ranks just behind Rodriguez as the third best shortstop ever; he was an on-base machine who was also among the best defensive shortstops in baseball. The other 4 here all had long, effective careers, Murray is often referred to as a compiler, but Yount certainly falls into this category as well.
Backup Util 2
1. Rod Carew - Anthony - 134.0
2. Tim Raines - Jimmy - 129.9
3. Paul Molitor - Andy - 129.3
4. Ichiro Suzuki - Dennis - 126.3
5. Dom Dimaggio - Adam - 124.3
6. Phil Rizzuto - Brian - 115.0
Holy Cow! Leadoff hitters everywhere! I thought Raines would rank higher, but my system sees Carew as the better player. Ichiro was credited with time spent in the Japanese leagues but still has a ways to go before he catches the top people on this list. The bottom two defensive specialists who were not great hitters (sorry uncle Phil) but both are also valuable guys to have on a roster.
Overall Offensive Score
1. Jimmy - 152.1
2. Brian - 147.7
3. Andy - 147.2
4. Dennis - 145.5
5. Anthony - 143.2
6. Adam - 142.1
I want to take a moment to touch on one thing that I think particularly hurt Anthony's score. Anthony drafted the best defensive shortstop ever and the best defensive third baseman ever. However, Ozzie Smith was a very poor hitter and Brooks Robinson was basically league average with the bat. These two are both great players, and worthy hall of famers, but when talking about the best ever they simply do not quite stand up to players who were great with both the bat and the glove. I can't help but think Anthony would have been better off drafting Arky Vaughan and Ron Santo who were both gold-glove caliber guys and could also hit.
Adam ranks last partially because I believe he drafted some modern players (Pujols, Winfield, Pudge, Ripken, Jeter for example) when there were some historical players who rated better contextually. Perhaps underrating modern players is a flaw in my system, but Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux all scored exceptionally high. I think Pujols will too, and soon, but the other guys simply were not quite as good as many of the others drafted.
I believe my team came in first becuase of the consistency I had across the board. No starter scored lower on my team than 136.8 and no bench player was lower than 129.9. Every other team had at least one starter below 135 and one bench player below 127. I also had the top ranked shortstop and third baseman ever, along with the second ranked catcher, first baseman, second baseman and left fielder. I was also the last player to draft a center fielder and right fielder (by design) because I knew there were more good options there available late than at catcher, middle infield or even third base.
Brian's team had serious power and was one of only two teams with multiple players rated at over 170 (mine being the other). Bonds really helped push him to second place. He also was able to avoid having any truly down areas in his lineup. His weakest scores being at catcher and third base, and neither of those was even the low at that position.
Andy and Dennis scored in the middle of that pack. Andy made a lot of very solid picks and getting Speaker when he did was a huge boost. I think the biggest reason he did not rank higher was taking a pitcher first overall, but considering that his team is very solid. Dennis drafted bench players before he finished his starting lineup and that hurt him because bench players do not count for as much. Also drafting Dimaggio so early to play at DH came back to haunt him a bit when some players taken many rounds later ranked higher because Joe D could not be given credit for his fielding; otherwise I think he drafted a very strong team and his solid rating notwithstanding is proof of that.
SP 1
1. Walter Johnson - Andy - 155.6
2. Cy Young - Anthony - 141.8
3. Lefty Grove - Jimmy - 137.8
4. Christy Mathewson - Dennis - 133.5
5. Pedro Martinez - Adam - 130.5
6. Sandy Koufax - Brian - 114.4
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Sandy Koufax's career was not that special. Pedro Martinez is often compared to Koufax but as we can see here (and rightly in my opinion) he has already surpassed Koufax by a significant margin. Walter Johnson is sort of on his own planet among pitchers, again justifiably I feel. Even only giving Cy Young partial credit for his pre-1900 seasons he rates ahead of Grove thanks mostly to the incredible length of his career.
SP 2
1. Pete Alexander - Anthony - 141.4
2. Roger Clemens - Jimmy - 139.3
3. Greg Maddux - Dennis - 132.1
4. Randy Johnson - Brian - 129.8
5. Warren Spahn - Andy - 118.5
6. Steve Carlton - Adam - 115.7
The bottom two rate where they do mostly because they played past their primes and hurt their rate stats. It is a harsh reality of this rating system that this does negatively effect their rating, but it also cannot be denied that these players negatively hurt their teams by hanging around that long also. Clemens' career has always been more impressive than Maddux's, this rating is based purely on statistics not whether I think they cheated to get those statistics, so you can certainly make the case that Maddux had a better career if you take that angle. I always thought of Alexander as a top 5 pitcher all time and rates essentially tied with Young for second in ACV.
SP 3
1. Ed Walsh - Dennis - 127.3
2. Tom Seaver - Anthony - 125.8
3. Three Finger Brown - Jimmy - 124.1
4. Bob Gibson - Adam - 121.0
5. Gaylord Perry - Andy - 118.2
6. Nolan Ryan - Brain - 111.1
I was expecting Seaver to rate much higher than this. I certainly expected him to be over 130. However the second half of his career was only very good as opposed to exceptional. Nonetheless I feel like my system might be selling him a bit short. Walsh and Brown were basically the first two superstar pitchers of the 20th century and I'm not particularly surprised by either of their ratings. Nolan Ryan is probably one of the most overrated pitchers ever; even though he struck out a ton of people he walked way more than anyone ever and his ERA's were never particularly special.
SP 4
1. Carl Hubbell - Andy - 122.1
2. Jim Palmer - Jimmy - 120.5
3. Bert Blyleven - Brian - 117.9
4. Juan Marichal - Adam - 116.1
5. Johan Santana - Anthony - 114.7
6. Don Sutton - Dennis - 108.5
If Johan Santana retired right now his career would be basically the equivalent of Sandy Koufax's and if you look at the stats objectively that makes sense. Don Sutton benefited more from the environment he played in probably more than any other pitcher in the 20th century and his low score reflects that. Hubbell had a sneaky good career that was not as short as most people would believe.
SP 5
1. Whitey Ford - Jimmy - 120.9
2. Bob Feller - Anthony - 119.5
3. Mike Mussina - Dennis - 116.4
4. Phil Niekro - Andy - 116.2
5. Tom Glavine - Adam - 115.9
6. Roy Halladay - Brian - 113.0
There is a perception that Ford's exception W-L numbers were bloated by the teams he played on, and while this is partially true, he was a hell of a pitcher. I was curious whether Mussina and Glavine would find a spot on any of these teams, I look at them as the past generations top two second-tier pitchers and as can be seen they compare pretty well to many other generation's upper echelon guys. Halladay has not quite pitched enough innings to catch them yet, though he probably will before he is done.
Closer
1. Mariano Rivera - Adam - 173.1
2. Hoyt Wilhelm - Jimmy - 149.1
3. Goose Gossage - Andy - 137.5
4. Trevor Hoffman - Anthony - 132.5
5. Dennis Eckersley - Anthony - 129.8
6. Joe Nathan - Dennis - 125.4
As if we needed another way to prove how great Mariano Rivera is... I always thought Wilhelm was underrated in history and ACV believes he was a truly exceptional pitcher. Eckersley's peak was not very long and Nathan's career is not actually that long either so they both rate below the others listed here.
Setup Man
1. Addie Joss - Dennis - 145.2
2. Billy Wagner - Jimmy - 144.8
3. Rube Waddell - Andy - 138.8
4. Curt Schilling - Brian - 134.1
5. John Smoltz - Adam - 133.9
6. Bruce Sutter - Anthony - 125.0
Joss and Waddell were completely dominant pitchers who had very short careers due to injuries, moving them to the pen obviously takes advantage of their exception rate stats. Billy Wagner is shown here as being probably one of the 5 best pure relief pitchers ever, he really has had an incredible career. ACV also illustrates something here that I've believed for awhile now, Bruce Sutter's hall of fame selection was probably a mistake if you base it solely on the impact he had as a player and ignore that he innovated a new pitch.
LHRP
1. Hal Newhouser - 135.9 - Brian
2. Eddie Plank - 134.0 - Dennis
3. Billy Pierce - 129.2 - Jimmy
4. Lefty Gomez - 129.0 - Adam
5. Ron Guidry - 125.8 - Anthony
6. Sparky Lyle - 125.0 - Andy
Five of these guys were starters however most of them work as lefties out of the pen because they had an exceptional breaking pitch. Lyle is the only true reliever, but he was never a dominant guy and rates rightfully at the back of the pack. Newhouser and Plank were probably good enough to have rotation spots for some of these teams, but it is just hard to fit everybody in.
RP 1
1. Smoky Joe Wood - 141.2 - Jimmy
2. Don Drysdale - 132.8 - Brian
3. Dan Quisenberry - 132.0 - Adam
4. Dazzy Vance - 130.9 - Dennis
5. John Franco - 130.7 - Anthony
6. Rollie Fingers - 119.8 - Andy
Some repeating themes here, Wood and Vance were dominant starters with short careers who get a boost from moving to the pen. Drysdale was a pure starter who ended up here just because he wasn't quite good enough to crack a rotation. Franco and Quisenberry were two of the most effective pure relievers ever, and Fingers was not. Fingers, like Sutter, has become overrated in time because he was from the generation of closers who threw multiple innings, overlooking the fact that he actually was not quite as good as a lot of the guys who only were one inning relievers.
RP 2
1. Brandon Webb - 136.9 - Jimmy
2. Kent Tekulve - 130.6 - Anthony
3. Lee Smith - 126.6 - Brian
4. Robin Roberts - 126.2 - Andy
5. Bob Lemon - 124.2 - Dennis
6. Robb Nen - 118.1 - Adam
Who has the better ERA+, Brandon Webb or Roy Halladay? It's Webb, and by a comfortable margin (142 to 134). Now Webb has not pitched for quite as long as Halladay but this just serves to show how effective Brandon Webb has been, he has pitched six full seasons at an extremely consistent and high level. Nobody knows who Kent Tekulve is because he didn't rack up gaudy save or strikeout totals but they guy was a much better pitcher than several people in the hall of fame. Nen simply just was not exception for long enough to quite compare to these guys.
RP 3
1. Roy Oswalt - 135.2 - Brian
2. Dizzy Dean - 131.8 - Jimmy
3. Jon Papelbon - 130.2 - Dennis
4. Ferguson Jenkins - 127.0 - Andy
5. C.C. Sabathia - 124.4 - Adam
6. Tim Lincecum - 119.7 - Anthony
Roy Oswalt is Brandon Webb part two, an active pitcher who is under appreciated because we have not had time to gain perspective on his career yet. Dean is another short-career dominant pitcher type, and I guess Sabathia and Lincecum fall under that umbrella as well even though Lincecum really hasn't even had a career yet. I feel like I should go a little more in depth on Papelbon who rates very well despite having only half as many innings as even Lincecum. Papelbon has a career ERA+ of 254, 52 points higher than even Mariano Rivera because he has been a dominant pitcher since his first day in the big leagues. He is, frankly, an anomaly to baseball and thus incredibly hard to rate. I'm sort of o.k. with where he falls here. Would I rather have what Papelbon has done so far over Ferguson Jenkins' whole career? Of course not, but in the context of this experiment, his rating higher than Jenkins can be understood... at least to some degree. Besides, I don't think arbitrarily changing my formula because one outlier is messing with it makes sense.
Overall Pitching Scores
1. Jimmy - 132.1
2. Anthony - 128.2
3. Andy - 127.6
4. Dennis - 126.1
5. Adam - 125.5
6. Brian - 121.8
Working from the bottom up, it seems obvious that Brian's team was doomed when my formula spit out a higher number for Johan Santana than it did for Sandy Koufax, but like I said above, I stand by that rating. Nolan Ryan and Roy Halladay also did not help. Brian drafted a really strong pen, but because the bullpen as a whole only accounts for the equivalent of two starting pitchers it was not enough to make up the difference.
Adam similarly was hurt by probably not the best first pitcher choice in Pedro Martinez. Martinez is a fantastic pitcher, but as a whole I really cannot come up with a way that his career was more valuable than Grove or Mathewson who were drafted well after him. The selection of Steve Carlton was probably also early and although Mariano Rivera proved to be incredibly valuable, again it was not quite enough to make up for a couple of possible mistakes early in the draft.
Dennis probably took Joe Nathan a bit early and should not have taken Don Sutton at all, but I think the reason he rates fourth is mostly because he drafted more hitters early than any other team. Because he did not get around to taking pitchers until later in the draft he was always playing from behind, even so he was only 2.1 points behind the second place team. He was one of only two teams (Anthony being the other) with three starters rated over 125.
Andy took a pitcher first overall and got by far the best one in Walter Johnson. However he may have sabotaged his rotation just a bit by taking durable starters who may have hung around the game a bit too long and as a result did not post the rate stats. The low rating of Warren Spahn particularly bugs me because subjectively I feel like he should be much higher, but my formula can't ignore the 1,430 league average innings he posted after his 38th birthday. Andy also ended up with the weakest pen, again partially because he tended to lead toward quantity over quality players. It is possible my formula is not reward enough to people who rack up innings because in the real world you most likely would not be filling in for the innings not pitched with a league average pitcher but with someone worse than that. I may adjust my formula to compensate for this in the future.
Anthony gravitated toward pitching early and has the best front three starters of any team. The two biggest things that prevented him from coming out on top were probably drafting Johan Santana a bit early and a slightly soft bullpen where the highest rated player was 130.8. Anthony could have picked up a few points by sliding his more effective relievers into the closer/setup role which were more heavily weighted but that probably would not have made up enough ground, and it's not like second place is something to scoff at anyway. On paper he probably has the strongest rotation of any team, even with Santana in it.
I believe my team rated first because of depth. I had no starters that rated lower than 120 (every other team had at least two) and no relievers rated below 129 (every other team had at least one below that and most had more). While Grove/Clemens and Wilhelm/Wagner are formidable it was ending up with the best group of second tier guys that probably made the biggest difference.
Team Construction Bonuses
I am now going to rattle off all the little areas I gave people bonuses for and how many they got for each category.
Having a legitimate leadoff hitter
Everybody gets +1 except Anthony who gets +.5 (because Rose wasn't a great base stealer and his OBP wasn't high enough to make up for it)
Having a diverse righty/lefty lineup (.5 points for each transition)
Andy - +2 (+3)
Anthony - +4.5 (+5)
Brian - +4 (+5)
Dennis - +2.5 (+3.5)
Jimmy - +2 (+3)
Adam - +2 (+3)
-1 Point For Every Defensive Position Your Bench Cannot Logically Cover
Andy - -0 (+3)
Anthony - -0 (+5)
Brian - -1 for centerfield (+4)
Dennis - -3 for SS, 2B, 3B (+0.5)
Jimmy - -0 (+3)
Adam - -0 (+3)
+1 Point each for legitimate LH pinch hitter, RH pinch hitter, pinch runner, OF defensive replacement, IF defensive replacement
Andy - +4 (+8)
Anthony - +3 (+8)
Brian - +4 (+8)
Dennis - +4 (+4.5)
Jimmy - +4 (+7)
Adam - +5 (+8)
Bonus for having varied rotation handedness
Andy - +2 (+10)
Anthony - +1 (+9)
Brian - +2 (+10)
Dennis - +0 (+4.5)
Jimmy - +2 (+9)
Adam - +2 (+10)
Bonus for having more than one left-handed reliever in pen
(Everyone gets +1 except Dennis and Brian)
Bonus for variety of power/finesse pitching in both rotation and pen
(Everyone gets +2)
Andy - +13
Anthony - +12
Brian +12
Dennis +6.5
Jimmy - +12
Adam - +13
Five of the six teams were constructed almost equally well for a real life setting. Dennis appears to have often drafted the best player left on the board and trying to shoe horn them into a role, rather than the best player possible for his team. This is where the advantage of drafting a Dom Dimaggio or Phil Rizzuto type of player came into play.
THE FINAL STANDINGS
1. Jimmy 154.1
2. Andy 150.4
3. Anthony 147.7
4. Adam 146.8
4. Brian 146.8
6. Dennis 142.3
The last thing I will write about in the final installment of this project is the best players at each position that went undrafted. I plan on doing this same thing again next year (hopefully with more teams)with a different evaluation method and want to take the time to highlight some guys that probably should have been taken at some point.
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