Inspired by a conversation I heard on Mike and Mike while getting ready to leave for Law School this morning, I decided to subjectively rank all of the quarterbacks in the NFL. This is purely from my perspective and solely states the order in which I would personally choose the QB's if I was starting my own team. This has nothing to do with fantasy sports either, this is purely if all of the QB's were thrown into a pool and open for drafting, what my "big board" would look like. Note that this is a ranking for my perceived value of them for this season only. So, without further ado....
1. Peyton Manning - 16 starts, 4,000+ yards, 27+ TDs practically guaranteed. Manning is also the unquestioned leader of the Colts and has proven he can win the big one. By the time he retires I fully expect him to be considered the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL and he is currently in his prime. He is the unquestioned #1 quarterback in the league, in my opinion.
2. Drew Brees - Since 2004-2005 Brees' worst QB rating is 89.2. He is an incredibly accurate passer and has impeccable decision making ability and an uncanny ability to read defenses. The system he plays in gets a lot of credit for his successes, but how effective would it be without him?
3. Tom Brady - If not for his injury last season, Brady would be nipping at Manning's heels but early signs from this season have not been overwhelmingly positive for Brady. Obviously his track record is sterling and he should regain his old form before long, and it is a testament to his ability that he still rates this highly coming off such a serious surgery.
4. Ben Roethlisberger - I have never been a fan of the phrase, "he just wins games" but it is hard to justify this ranking in any other way. Roethlisberger is not impressive statistically in many ways, but the guy has won two Superbowls and seems to have an innate ability to make big plays at the right time. He is tough as nails, makes good decisions and never gives up on a play. Similar to all of the players above him, he is a born leader and teammates love playing alongside him.
5. Philip Rivers - From the same draft class as Roethlisberger, and the better passer in statistical terms, Rivers is also as tough as they come. However, Rivers' teams have underperformed a bit over the last couple of reasons and while I do not feel it was through any fault of his, he has to slot in behind Big Ben for that reason.
6. Aaron Rodgers - He has only been a starter for one season, but he was a great year despite a poor running game and suspect offensive line. Rodgers also handled the whole Favre situation flawlessly which seemed to endear himself to his teammates. Because Rodgers has so much potential and also appears to have the right mentality for the NFL he ranks very highly on the list despite his lack of experience.
7. Matt Ryan - Even less experienced than Rodgers, but it was impossible to ignore how well Ryan performed last season under less than ideal circumstances. He does all of the little things well and plays with the poise of a veteran. He also has all the intangibles and physical tools that you look for in a quarterback. I expect that if I were to do this list again a couple of years from now he would rank a good deal higher.
8. Eli Manning - I'm actually surprised I have him this high, but after breaking him down it makes sense. He won a Superbowl and last year had by far his best statistical season, and did it mostly without his security blanket, Plaxico Burress. The Superbowl win won him the trust of his teammates and if last year's number were a sign of things to come, he may actually be ranked too low.
9. Donovon McNabb - I have always been a fan of McNabb's and wanted to rank him ahead of Eli but simply could not justify it. Between the healthy and some suspect performances in big games, McNabb's stock has fallen a little bit despite his outstanding statistical resume. I actually think getting out of Philadelphia would do wonders for him because he has been a much better quarterback over the course of his career than he has been given credit for. All that said, I think he is starting to decline and his best years are now behind him.
10. Carson Palmer - Still has not really regained his pre-injury form but when Palmer is right he can be as good as anyone. He has had a rough go of it with all of the turmoil surrounding the Bengals but has consistently handled it well. He is simply too talented to slip any further down the board, even in this one year scenario.
11. Kurt Warner - Warner has won a Superbowl and has proven over the last couple of seasons that he still has the ability to put up big numbers. Objectively, he should probably rank higher, but these are my personal rankings and I'm putting him here. I simply do not trust him to always make the right choice in a big spot. I've seen him throw the ball right to a defender too many times and since he does not offer any value with anything other than his throwing, this seems appropriate to me.
12. Tony Romo - Similar to Warner, I just do not trust him in a big spot despite the gaudy statistics. He is great at improvising, has a good arm and throws one of the best deep balls in the league, but he still tends to be very mistake prone. All this still has time to change and I do think the Cowboys can win a Superbowl with Romo as their quarterback, but I just cannot see taking him over any of the people above in 2009.
13. Joe Flacco - I'm honestly shocked he is this high. Last year they made the playoffs mostly because Flacco was not asked to do much, but when he was asked to make a throw, he often did. Already it is clear he is being trusted more this year and so far the results are good. He has all the physical tools to be a success and expect him to climb this chart slowly over the coming years.
14. Chad Pennington - Pennington knows his strengths and his weaknesses. He is incredibly accurate has a great rapport with his receivers. The reason he ranks this lowly is because I just do not think he has the ability to quickly bring back his team if they are down. This points was perfectly illustrated a couple days ago when they lost to the Colts on Monday Night Football. Pennington is a good quarterback and you can win with him, and it is to his credit that he ranks this highly despite being one of the least physically gifted passers in the game.
15. Jay Cutler - The anti-Pennington. With possibly the best arm in the game, Cutler can make spectacular plays but I question his mechanics, decision making and attitude. I personally would not be thrilled about having him as my teammate after all of the off-season shenanigans. However because of his tools and big play ability he still sits just above the midpoint of the league. He has more potential than almost anyone on this list.
16. Matt Schaub - Schaub has a lot of ability but has not been able to put it on display because he has spent far too much time in the training room. Because he has not really proven anything yet, he ranks here, but he has a good chance of rocketing up this board if he can put together a full healthy season.
17. Kyle Orton - Orton will not wow you, but he quietly had a very solid season last year and has taken a team to the playoffs before. He is a fairly steady performer and in the right situation can have success on a team.
18. Brett Favre - I am a little tired of the whole Brett Favre experience and I get the impression a lot of the players in the NFL are as well. He still has some talent, but as his arm continues to lose its power he will have to rely more and more on his decision making, and that was never his best attribute. I admire how he has managed the game in his first two starts this year and I may be short changing him on the list for subjective reasons, but he is another player I simply do not trust in a big spot anymore.
19 Mark Sanchez - A rookie probably should not rank this highly, particularly one who had as little experience at the college level as Sanchez, however since the moment he has been drafted Sanchez has done no wrong. By all accounts he is an incredibly hard worker, a born leader and he obviously has all the physical tools to be great. I believe he can have success in a manner similar to Joe Flacco last season. As long as you do not ask him to do too much, he can be a valuable asset.
20. Matt Hasselbeck - I may have him a little too low on this list, but he is getting up there in years, is coming off an awful, injury plagued season, and has really only been good in one of the last three years. I'm also always skeptical of quarterbacks with chronic back problems. His performance this year so far has done nothing to change my opinion of him, and he now sits firmly in "prove it" status for me in regards to his value.
21. Matt Cassell - Cassell was excellent last year, but it would be hard to find a situation more favorable to a quarterback than the 2008 Patriots. He still has a lot to prove to me and his performance last week against Oakland was far from inspiring. He is another one that has a chance to move way up the list with only a handful of good games, but I just cannot justify taking him over any of the people ahead of him at this point.
22. Shaun Hill - Hill is sort of Ben Roethlisberger light to me. Do you realize he is 7-4 as a starter over the last two seasons? However, Roethlisberger ranks where he does because he has won two Superbowls and a huge percentage of his games. Hill is obviously not there yet and given his limited skills this seems like an appropriate place for him until he proves he belongs higher.
23. Marc Bulger - Bulger used to be one of the best quarterbacks in football, so what happened? His team fell apart all around him. Personally I think the talent is still in there somewhere and he would be able to show it, in a better environment. Since this list evaluates quarterbacks in a vacuum I think this is a fair place for him.
24. David Garrard - Garrard had a very impressive 2007 season but really has not done much otherwise. He is an asset when running the ball and has shown the ability to be an effective passer at times as well. Maybe he should rank higher but his mediocre play over the last year-plus just does not inspire confidence in me.
25. Jason Campbell - Campbell does not make many mistakes but often looks downright scared of taking any risks whatsoever. He has excellent tools but never puts them on display. Campbell's problems stem completely from the mental side of the game, but since he has not really improved at all in the last few seasons, I can't see how he belongs any higher than this.
26. Trent Edwards - Edwards has had a nice start to the season, but I have watched him play several times, and every time I am left unimpressed. He just does not seem to have enough ability to be a success without being a master of the subtleties and nuances of the game, and nothing he has shown so far makes me believe he ever will have that trait either. Still young enough to improve, but consider me skeptical.
27. Kerry Collins - In his earlier days, Collins proved that in a perfect situation he could be a great quarterback, but when things were less than ideal, he was never able to get it done. Now that he is older and does not have quite the same arm strength anymore, I think his ceiling as a passer is just incredibly low. I do not think he is capable of making big plays anymore, nor is he consistent.
28. Jake DelHomme - Has had a lot of success in his career, but always seemed to me like one of those guys that often chucked the ball up in the air and depended on his receivers to make a play far too often. It finally appears that this is coming back to haunt him and as a result I have lost all faith in his ability to win an important game. Maybe I'm wrong but I just really would not want him to be running my offense.
29. Byron Leftwich - Blessed with a rocket arm, but the slowest release in the game and the mobility of a redwood, Leftwich really needs to be in the right situation to have success. He has also proven to be a bit fragile over the years despite his toughness. The fact that the Jaguars chose Garrard (who is far from spectacular) over him is also telling in my mind, and while he might be Tampa Bay's best option, I would not want him to be my quarterback.
30. Brady Quinn - I was sort of on the Brady Quinn bandwagon coming into the year but my nose still has not recovered from the two stink bombs he has thrown out so far. In retrospect, maybe it is telling that Cleveland went so long to give him a shot despite the big contract and Derek Anderson's major struggles. He has had plenty of time to learn the game from the sidelines at this point but really has shown almost nothing on the field. Until he starts proving he can cut it in the NFL I see no reason for him to be higher on this list.
31. Jamarcus Russell - Similar to Quinn in that he has shown nothing in games to make me a believer. Do not be fooled by last year's statistics, almost all of his decent numbers were accumulated after his team was already out of the game. By the way, he has completed 35% of his passes so far this season.
32. Matthew Stafford - I will be the first to admit that I was not a big Stafford fan while he was in college. Despite the big arm his statistics were never really that impressive and I saw him make a lot of really poor decisions. I looked at him as a a bit of project in the NFL and now he is being thrown right into the fire. Maybe he will be good someday, but I am sure he is not right now.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
2009 All Underrated/Overrated teams
2009 All Underrated and All Overrated Team
Catcher
Underrated - Yadier Molina - We all know by now that he is a superb defensive catcher, probably the best in the game today. However, did you realize he's turning into a pretty decent hitter as well? He doesn't really have any power to speak of, but he currently sits at .364 with his OBP, not too shabby.
Overrated - Bengie Molina - It's an all Molina showing, unfortunately for Bengie. He's the exact opposite of his brother, using decent power to mask a .285 OBP. He also has lost a lot of ability behind the plate. Combine this with the fact that the team probably would have been better off playing Buster Posey down the stretch and you have the most overrated catcher in baseball.
First Base
Underrated - Derrek Lee - Lost in the misery of the Cubs' season is the fact that Lee is actually having a great year. For some perspective, he is ahead of Mark Teixeira in all three slash categories, posting 304/388/578 to date. While he is not quite the glove man his reputation would suggest, he is also still above average in the field as well.
Overrated - Russell Branyan - A lot of people have talked about the fine year Branyan is having, but it really has not been anything special. He's still in the bottom half of all first baseman in most every offensive category, and while it has been a good year for him, he is still just another guy.
Second Base
Underrated - Ben Zobrist - Yes, everybody knows he is having a great year, but few realize just how great a year it has been. Despite not playing quite as well down the stretch his OBP sits at .400, is slugging .530 and has been the best defensive second baseman in baseball during his time there. He's been as good as Chase Utley this year and significantly better than every other second baseman in baseball.
Overrated - Aaron Hill - Hill has some gaudy counting stats, 32 HR, 30 2B, 98 RBI, but most of those are inflated by his huge number of plate appearances. His OBP is 75 points lower than Zobrist, his slugging is 50 points lower and he is not in the same class defensively, yet most people seem to think he is actually having a better season.
Third Base
Underrated - Chone Figgins - A player who has often found himself on the other end of the spectrum, his outstanding year has been mostly overshadowed by Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales. Figgins' .400 OBP and 42 steals have helped fueled a powerful Angels lineup and his defense has been the equal of anyone in baseball.
Overrated - Brandon Inge - The Aaron Hill of 3B, Inge made the all-star team and despite not doing anything in the second half, still sits at an impressive 27 HR's. However, he sacrifices everything else for power, swinging from his heels and racking up massive strikeout totals. His excellent defense is really the only thing preventing him from being near replacement level.
Shortstop
Underrated - Yunel Escobar - Often the subject of trade rumors, I do not understand why the Braves seem so anxious to get rid of their extremely talented young shortstop. He's been nearly as valuable this year as Troy Tulowitzki who is often called one of the best shortstops in baseball.
Overrated - Rafael Furcal - Furcal really has not been an above average player since 2006, yet has still spent essentially the entire year batting at the top of the Dodger lineup, while Matt Kemp has often hit 8th.
Left Field
Underrated - Denard Span - Mauer and Morneau get all the talk, but the Twins have quietly developed themselves a potential great leadoff hitter in Span. He has an OBP around 390, just enough power to keep a pitcher honest and the speed to be dangerous on the bases
Overrated - Jason Bay - Bay is actually a very good player, however everybody seems to think he is the equal of Matt Holliday and that they will get a fairly equal payday in the off-season. While Bay and Holliday are comparable hitters, Holliday is a very good fielder in left and Bay has essentially been a DH masquerading as a LF for several seasons now.
Center Field
Underrated - Franklin Gutierrez - This should probably be Matt Kemp who has been the best CF in baseball this year, or Shane Victorino who was the third best, but Gutierrez is the reason I started writing this. He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball by a lot and while his batting numbers will not wow anybody, he has been one of the most clutch hitters in baseball this year, shown by his +3.38 WPA, which is 7th among AL hitters. Clutch performance may not carry over from one season to the next, but Gutierrez has certainly gotten it done this season.
Overrated - B.J. Upton - Yes his potential is off the charts and yes he is very good in the field, but Upton has been the worst hitting centerfielder in baseball this season. He has not hit for power, or average and has not drawn many walks. Upton's season is a big reason why the Rays fell short this year and few seem to have noticed.
Right Field
Underrated - Justin Upton - This could easily be many other people including Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Swisher or Andre Ethier, but I'm giving it to the person who was the best right fielder this year, 21-year-old Justin Upton. He hits for power, he hits for average, the plate discipline is coming around and he's a great defensive player. Just imagine how good he'll be when he's in his prime.
Overrated - Nick Markakis - Markakis came into the season with a ton of hype but is in the bottom half of right fielder in OPS and was below average with the glove this year. After showing constant development over the last few seasons, Markakis had a very bad year. Maybe the constant losing in Baltimore is getting to him or maybe it was a fluke, but he was a huge disappointment this season.
Starting Pitcher
Underrated -
Javier Vazquez - Second in the NL in K's, ERA right at 3.00, nobody notices.
Wandy Rodriguez - An even better ERA than Vazquez, yet somehow even less publicity. Rodriguez is currently sitting at 2.77.
Jon Lester - Forget Beckett, Lester has been the ace of the Boston staff for a couple of years now. He is third in the AL in K's and has posted a 3.29 ERA, improbably for lefty pitching at Fenway.
Scott Feldman - Don't say the Rangers have no pitching, Feldman has posted a 3.31 ERA this season in Arlington's hitter haven.
Matt Cain - Cain has been completely overshadowed by Lincecum, but Cain's ERA (2.71) is fourth in the NL.
Overrated -
Chad Billingsley - Thought of as one of the best young starters in baseball, Billingsley's ERA is around 4.00 and he has looked particularly ordinary in the second half.
Roy Oswalt - Former perennial Cy Young candidate has seen his ERA go up for four straight seasons and it is now over 4.
Mike Pelfrey - Still has never learned to throw anything other than a fastball and is frankly, barely a major league pitcher at this point.
Johan Santana - Even before going on the DL, Santana was posting the 12th best ERA in the league, while playing half his games in PETCO east, a.k.a. Citifield. Time will tell whether his relatively poor performance was due to injury or the start of his decline.
Josh Beckett - Currently has the 15th best ERA in the NL, behind Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Niemenn and Mark Buehrle
Relief Pitcher
Underrated -
Mike Wuertz - A 2.85 ERA to go along with 93 K's in 72.2 IP, he has been the perfect complement to breakout closer Andrew Bailey
David Aardsma - It is hard for a closer to be underrated, but Aardsma pulls it off with his 2.06 ERA. The Fact that he is 35/39 in save opportunities does not hurt either
Luke Gregorson - Gregorson has come out of nowhere to become the anchor in San Diego's pen. His 2.81 ERA is impressive, but his peripherals, 82 K in 67 IP and only 2 home runs allowed, are even more so.
Overrated -
Brian Fuentes - He leads the league in saves, but has actually blown more than anyone other than Brad Lidge and J.P. Howell
Bobby Jenks - Still tends to get grouped up with the upper-tier closers despite no numbers to support that assumption
Daniel Bard - Bard is very good but there has been a lot of talk about the Red Sox trading away Papelbon and handing the closer's role over to Bard, I think people spreading that rumor probably need to calm down a bit, he is not nearly at that level right now.
Catcher
Underrated - Yadier Molina - We all know by now that he is a superb defensive catcher, probably the best in the game today. However, did you realize he's turning into a pretty decent hitter as well? He doesn't really have any power to speak of, but he currently sits at .364 with his OBP, not too shabby.
Overrated - Bengie Molina - It's an all Molina showing, unfortunately for Bengie. He's the exact opposite of his brother, using decent power to mask a .285 OBP. He also has lost a lot of ability behind the plate. Combine this with the fact that the team probably would have been better off playing Buster Posey down the stretch and you have the most overrated catcher in baseball.
First Base
Underrated - Derrek Lee - Lost in the misery of the Cubs' season is the fact that Lee is actually having a great year. For some perspective, he is ahead of Mark Teixeira in all three slash categories, posting 304/388/578 to date. While he is not quite the glove man his reputation would suggest, he is also still above average in the field as well.
Overrated - Russell Branyan - A lot of people have talked about the fine year Branyan is having, but it really has not been anything special. He's still in the bottom half of all first baseman in most every offensive category, and while it has been a good year for him, he is still just another guy.
Second Base
Underrated - Ben Zobrist - Yes, everybody knows he is having a great year, but few realize just how great a year it has been. Despite not playing quite as well down the stretch his OBP sits at .400, is slugging .530 and has been the best defensive second baseman in baseball during his time there. He's been as good as Chase Utley this year and significantly better than every other second baseman in baseball.
Overrated - Aaron Hill - Hill has some gaudy counting stats, 32 HR, 30 2B, 98 RBI, but most of those are inflated by his huge number of plate appearances. His OBP is 75 points lower than Zobrist, his slugging is 50 points lower and he is not in the same class defensively, yet most people seem to think he is actually having a better season.
Third Base
Underrated - Chone Figgins - A player who has often found himself on the other end of the spectrum, his outstanding year has been mostly overshadowed by Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales. Figgins' .400 OBP and 42 steals have helped fueled a powerful Angels lineup and his defense has been the equal of anyone in baseball.
Overrated - Brandon Inge - The Aaron Hill of 3B, Inge made the all-star team and despite not doing anything in the second half, still sits at an impressive 27 HR's. However, he sacrifices everything else for power, swinging from his heels and racking up massive strikeout totals. His excellent defense is really the only thing preventing him from being near replacement level.
Shortstop
Underrated - Yunel Escobar - Often the subject of trade rumors, I do not understand why the Braves seem so anxious to get rid of their extremely talented young shortstop. He's been nearly as valuable this year as Troy Tulowitzki who is often called one of the best shortstops in baseball.
Overrated - Rafael Furcal - Furcal really has not been an above average player since 2006, yet has still spent essentially the entire year batting at the top of the Dodger lineup, while Matt Kemp has often hit 8th.
Left Field
Underrated - Denard Span - Mauer and Morneau get all the talk, but the Twins have quietly developed themselves a potential great leadoff hitter in Span. He has an OBP around 390, just enough power to keep a pitcher honest and the speed to be dangerous on the bases
Overrated - Jason Bay - Bay is actually a very good player, however everybody seems to think he is the equal of Matt Holliday and that they will get a fairly equal payday in the off-season. While Bay and Holliday are comparable hitters, Holliday is a very good fielder in left and Bay has essentially been a DH masquerading as a LF for several seasons now.
Center Field
Underrated - Franklin Gutierrez - This should probably be Matt Kemp who has been the best CF in baseball this year, or Shane Victorino who was the third best, but Gutierrez is the reason I started writing this. He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball by a lot and while his batting numbers will not wow anybody, he has been one of the most clutch hitters in baseball this year, shown by his +3.38 WPA, which is 7th among AL hitters. Clutch performance may not carry over from one season to the next, but Gutierrez has certainly gotten it done this season.
Overrated - B.J. Upton - Yes his potential is off the charts and yes he is very good in the field, but Upton has been the worst hitting centerfielder in baseball this season. He has not hit for power, or average and has not drawn many walks. Upton's season is a big reason why the Rays fell short this year and few seem to have noticed.
Right Field
Underrated - Justin Upton - This could easily be many other people including Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Swisher or Andre Ethier, but I'm giving it to the person who was the best right fielder this year, 21-year-old Justin Upton. He hits for power, he hits for average, the plate discipline is coming around and he's a great defensive player. Just imagine how good he'll be when he's in his prime.
Overrated - Nick Markakis - Markakis came into the season with a ton of hype but is in the bottom half of right fielder in OPS and was below average with the glove this year. After showing constant development over the last few seasons, Markakis had a very bad year. Maybe the constant losing in Baltimore is getting to him or maybe it was a fluke, but he was a huge disappointment this season.
Starting Pitcher
Underrated -
Javier Vazquez - Second in the NL in K's, ERA right at 3.00, nobody notices.
Wandy Rodriguez - An even better ERA than Vazquez, yet somehow even less publicity. Rodriguez is currently sitting at 2.77.
Jon Lester - Forget Beckett, Lester has been the ace of the Boston staff for a couple of years now. He is third in the AL in K's and has posted a 3.29 ERA, improbably for lefty pitching at Fenway.
Scott Feldman - Don't say the Rangers have no pitching, Feldman has posted a 3.31 ERA this season in Arlington's hitter haven.
Matt Cain - Cain has been completely overshadowed by Lincecum, but Cain's ERA (2.71) is fourth in the NL.
Overrated -
Chad Billingsley - Thought of as one of the best young starters in baseball, Billingsley's ERA is around 4.00 and he has looked particularly ordinary in the second half.
Roy Oswalt - Former perennial Cy Young candidate has seen his ERA go up for four straight seasons and it is now over 4.
Mike Pelfrey - Still has never learned to throw anything other than a fastball and is frankly, barely a major league pitcher at this point.
Johan Santana - Even before going on the DL, Santana was posting the 12th best ERA in the league, while playing half his games in PETCO east, a.k.a. Citifield. Time will tell whether his relatively poor performance was due to injury or the start of his decline.
Josh Beckett - Currently has the 15th best ERA in the NL, behind Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Niemenn and Mark Buehrle
Relief Pitcher
Underrated -
Mike Wuertz - A 2.85 ERA to go along with 93 K's in 72.2 IP, he has been the perfect complement to breakout closer Andrew Bailey
David Aardsma - It is hard for a closer to be underrated, but Aardsma pulls it off with his 2.06 ERA. The Fact that he is 35/39 in save opportunities does not hurt either
Luke Gregorson - Gregorson has come out of nowhere to become the anchor in San Diego's pen. His 2.81 ERA is impressive, but his peripherals, 82 K in 67 IP and only 2 home runs allowed, are even more so.
Overrated -
Brian Fuentes - He leads the league in saves, but has actually blown more than anyone other than Brad Lidge and J.P. Howell
Bobby Jenks - Still tends to get grouped up with the upper-tier closers despite no numbers to support that assumption
Daniel Bard - Bard is very good but there has been a lot of talk about the Red Sox trading away Papelbon and handing the closer's role over to Bard, I think people spreading that rumor probably need to calm down a bit, he is not nearly at that level right now.
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