I am basing these rankings primarily on fangraph.com's pitch values statistics. People often talk about particular pitchers having the best this or that and as is often the case it is impossible to get a consensus answer. Because of this, I decided to look it up myself. I've used the pitch values over each of the last three seasons, and weighted the most recently completed years the heaviest. These rankings are based on a combination of overall value garnered from the pitch and the pitch's rate value.
20. Carlos Marmol's Slider - Marmol throws his slider roughly half the time and does not even command it that well, but the combination of his awkward motion/arm slot, velocity (the pitch averages over 82 MPH) and movement make it a nasty offering. His slider breaks across the zone more than most but its movement is only good and not spectacular. Marmol's slider is a testament to how much of a difference deception can make.
19. Randy Wolf's 4-seam Fastball - This was a bit of a surprise to me because Wolf's fastball sits in the upper 80s and has never really stood out in my personal observations much. Wolf does command the pitch well and often rides it up in the zone to pickup strikeouts. However, I think the biggest reason that it stands out is how much "life" it has. This is one of those things that is difficult to quantify because it is very subjective, but some pitches just seem faster than they are, and Wolf's fastball is a perfect example. It does have a bit more rise on it than most fastballs and a little arm-side tail that makes it deceptively quick. Wolf also throws one of the slowest curveballs in the league (sitting in the upper 60s) and perhaps it is the difference between those two pitches that catches batters off. Exactly why Wolf's fastball is so effective really is a bit of a mystery, but it is impossible to deny how outstanding the pitch is.
18. A.J. Burnett's Curveball - It is tricky to succeed as a two-pitch starter but Burnett, for all intensive purposes, has been one for his whole career. Although his fastball is extremely quick his lack of command makes the fastball only a decent pitch. However, his curve is just plain filthy. It moves so much (both across the zone and down) that hitters will often swing at it, even when it ends up a couple feet out of the zone. He throws the pitch to left-handed batters and they will often swing at balls that nearly hit their back foot. At an 82 MPH average, the simplest way to describe Burnett's curveball is that it is impossible to find another pitch with this much movement at that speed.
17. Hong-Chih Kuo's 4-seam Fastball - Kuo's injury history and lack of command forced him to the bullpen, where he has been invaluable to the Dodgers. When he was first called up, Los Angeles used him as a lefty specialist, but they quickly realized Kuo's fastball was actually his best pitch. As a result he ended up being able to dominate both left and right-handed batters. His velocity has gone up each year of his career and he averaged over 94 MPH in 2009. The movement on his pitch is nearly identical to Wolf's but the extra 5-6 MPH make Kuo's pitch that little bit better. Kuo would be a closer for most teams but as long as Jonathan Broxton (whose fastball and slider both came fairly close to this list) is in town he'll have to settle for setup duty.
16. Rich Harden's Splitter - Similar to Burnett, it is Harden's fastball velocity that gets the most publicity, but it is not his best pitch. Harden's fastball is very straight, making it more hittable while his splitter has good tumble and is pretty quick itself, sitting in the mid 80s. Harden's fastball velocity certainly helps the splitter because batters will be geared up for the heat and be way out in front when Harden pulls the string. Over the last few years Harden has completely abandoned every breaking pitch but because the split is so effective, he can still be a great pitcher... when healthy.
15. Jake Peavy's 2-seam Fastball - Peavy has gone to the back of most people's minds after a forgettable 2009, but even in limited time he still showed that his fastball is a special pitch. It sits in the low 90s but has a significant amount of arm-side run and decent sink that induces tons of groundballs. It is undeniable that the park he plays in has helped the pitch's value numbers but it also seems obvious to me that this is a top 20 pitch in any environment. If he had been healthy all season I have no doubt Peavy would have the highest rated fastball on this list.
14. Roy Halladay's Cutter - Halladay's curveball was actually #21 when I was writing this list up; after looking at the numbers, it cannot be denied that for about three seasons now, the cutter has been his best pitch. He threw it 41.5% of the time last year (a career high) and it still maintained an incredible level of effectiveness. As I wrote in a previous article Halladay went from being a very good pitcher to one of the best in baseball when he learned and tuned his cutter. The pitch has excellent velocity (averaging roughly 91 MPH) and moves across the zone nearly as much as a slider.
13. Chris Carpenter's 2-seam Fastball - Carpenter is a bit of an oddity on this list for two reasons. The first is that he only pitched in one of the last three years and the second is that the pitch he is on this list for doesn't actually generate many swings-and-misses. His fastball makes the list because it sometimes seems impossible to get it off the ground. His fastball was primarily responsible for 2009, allowing him to generate huge amounts of easy, efficient outs with slow grounders to his infielders. That is, I believe, the difference between the groundballs Carpenter gives up compared to the rest of the league; he never seems to give up a hard-hit grounder, everything is a 10 hopper and too slow to even sneak through the infield.
12. Jonathan Papelbon's 4-seam Fastball - There are two people on this list who are one-pitch pitchers. Papelbon is the first and the other will be coming up later. In order to succeed as a one-pitch guy, that pitch has to be incredible and Papelbon's fastball is just that. It sits easily in the mid 90s and he seems to be able to hit the upper 90s when necessary. Other than its velocity, there isn't actually anything that remarkable about the pitch. He can control it fairly well and does a good job at attacking hitter's weaknesses with it, but it does not move very much in any direction. Nonetheless the batters always know it is coming and it rarely matters.
11. Cole Hamels Changeup - Hamels has a very ordinary fastball and a below average curve, but has a 3.67 ERA through his first four seasons in the majors anyway because of his changeup. His command of the pitch is its biggest asset. He will throw it for strikes or down out of the zone, making batters flail helplessly at it. The pitch does hit the magical mark of being more than 10 MPH slower than his fastball and Hamels is so good at maintaining his arm speed and slot that the pitch is devastating.
10. Ryan Dempster's Slider - We begin the top 10 with a bit of a surprise. However he has put together a couple good seasons in a row, thanks almost entirely to his slider. Even when Dempster struggled his slider was a solid pitch, however in recent years it has been exceptional. He throws it over 30% of the time, and it is very hard, only six MPH slower than his fastball. As a result the pitch has a short, but very sharp break that can generate both strikeouts and groundballs. His slider has become such a go-to pitch that he posted a 3.65 ERA last year and it was his only offering with a positive value.
9. C.C. Sabathia's Slider - The hard-throwing Sabathia's slider took a bit of a dip in value last year, but it was so potent in '07 and '08 it ranks in the top 10 anyway. His slider has more across-the-zone movement than any other pitch that averages over 80 MPH and he has excellent command of it too. Last year lefties batted under .200 against Sabathia thanks mostly to his slider, and that was when the pitch wasn't at its sharpest. He has also become adept at burying it inside to right-handed hitters who can do nothing with it but swing and miss or dribble it weakly to third base.
8. Ervin Santana's Slider - It's probably hard to believe that someone who has only had one good season in the past three years is on this list, but even last year when he struggled Santana's slider was a dominant pitch. When Santana struggles it is generally because he loses command of the fastball. His version of a slider is not exceptionally hard like Dempster or with drastic movement like Sabathia, it falls somewhere in between. The raw movement data suggests that it should be a solid pitch but I can't really see a logical reason for it rating as highly as it does. Maybe he can control the pitch better than I realize or maybe batters know that his other pitches are less effective and they're always looking to drive something else. After seeing the stats I intend to pay closer attention to Santana next year and try to figure it out, but until than it will have to be enough simply that we know it's an amazing pitch.
7. Edwin Jackson's Slider - Jackson is Santana part 2, a reasonably effective pitcher with only one good pitch. The difference between the two of them is that Jackson's fastball is actually worse but he has still been a durable league average pitcher. He throws the slider less often than Santana or Dempster, but his other options are less effective and his slider is even better than either of there's. It seems like he could be much more effective overall if he used the pitch more often. His version of the slider looks almost like a cutter, averaging just over 86 MPH with a short, sharp break. It actually reminds me a bit of the one Robb Nen used to throw. The best way to illustrate how good Jackson's slider is, is to point out that he has been a league average pitcher over the last three years, as a two pitch pitcher, and the only other pitch he throws is pretty terrible.
6. Adam Wainwright's Curveball - There are only two curveballs on this list, and Burnett's is really more of a slurve (with Halladay's curve ranking 21st). So what do Roy Halladay and Adam Wainwright have in common that makes their curve's so exceptional? They are both very tall. Halladay is 6'6 and Wainwright is 6'7; I believe that allows them to get a little extra leverage and helps the pitch break down that much more. The movement on Wainwright's curve is staggering. It is perhaps best illustrated by looking at one of his pitch fx game charts, so you can see just how different it is from his other pitches. It has a significant amount of lateral break, but it is the downward movement that is off the charts. This makes it effective against both right and left-handed batters. Wainwright was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and the reason for the spike is his refinement of the slider and curve. Both are great pitches, but the curve is better.
5. C.C. Sabathia's Changeup - The only person to appear twice on this list, (although several were very close) I think most people would be surprised to find out Sabathia's changeup is actually his best pitch. While it has always been very good, over the last couple of seasons it has improved drastically and last year it moved in front of Sabathia's slider as his best pitch. At an average of 86 MPH it is only 8 MPH slower than his fastball, but because he has become so good at spotting it on the outside corner to righties that difference is enough. The pitch also has a huge amount of tailing action for changeup. For a right-handed batter, the location, speed and tail makes the pitch appear like a strike out of Sabathia's hand, but by the time they swing it is no longer within their reach.
4. Zack Greinke's Slider - This is Greinke's only appearance on this list but his fastball was also in the 21-30 range. Early in his career Greinke's primary breaking ball was a curve, but after his sabbatical Greinke switched to a slider. He's actually used both pitches since, but the slider has become his bread and butter. In 2007, pitching mostly in relief, it was a slightly above average pitch. In 2008 it became one of the better pitches in baseball, and in 2009 it was one of the very best overall. As he has used it more often, its velocity has increased, up to an average of 86 MPH last year and it has increased its downward break each season as well. Its across the zone movement has actually regressed some, but even after that it remains well above average. It is the combination of velocity and movement that makes the pitch special. It is the same speed as Edwin Jackson's, but with more break in both directions, and he commands it better.
3. Cliff Lee's 2-seam Fastball - Over the last two seasons, Cliff Lee's fastball has the highest total positive value number. While it is not as special as some other fastballs on a per-pitch basis, he throws it nearly 70% of the time and batters still have not figured it out. Lee works with 4 pitches, but he throws his fastball more often than A.J. Burnett, Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, all two-pitch pitchers. Lee gives opposing batters a chance to sit on his fastball and they still cannot do anything with it. It only averages just over 90 MPH and does not move an exceptional amount in any direction. There is no real secret behind Lee's fastball though. I believe there are three key reasons why it is the best in baseball. First he hides the ball extremely well in his delivery, second he works so quickly that hitters never feel comfortable against him and most importantly, he seems to be able to throw the pitch exactly where he wants, every time.
2. Mariano Rivera's Cutter - Perhaps the only surprise here is that Rivera's cutter does not rank first overall. You can make an excellent case for it being first, but objectively I think there is one better pitch out there. I doubt that any single pitch has ever been analyzed as much as Rivera's cutter. He doesn't sit in the mid 90s anymore, but still pitches routinely at 92 MPH and his command is obviously impeccable. I earlier wrote about Edwin Jackson's exceptional slider; just to show you how special Rivera's cutter is, it actually moves more than Jackson's slider and is roughly 6 MPH faster. It almost doesn't seem possible that a pitch has can move that much when it gets to the plate so quickly, but that's what makes it pitch one of a kind.
1. Tim Lincecum's Changeup - Seriously. In case you haven't noticed, Lincecum has been the best pitcher in baseball for two years now and the pitch most responsible for that is his insane changeup. His fastball was in the 21-30 range and both of his breaking pitches are also very good, but it is the changeup that is truly special. It is as close to unhittable as exists in the Major Leagues today. However, the annoying thing is that I really cannot tell why. It checks in at 83 MPH, making it roughly 10 MPH slower than his fastball, and gives the impression of a drop because of its velocity. The biggest reason that I can see on paper for its effectiveness is that its horizontal movement is identical to Lincecum's fastball, meaning it arrives on the exact same plane. Lincecum also uses the same release point regardless of the pitch and the same arm speed. Perhaps it is a combination of all of those things and his naturally deceptive delivery that make the pitch so lethal. Lincecum only through his changeup 21.4% of the time last year yet it's total positive value was miles ahead of any other changeup in the last six years. In fact in all the years FanGraphs has data for, only Jamie Moyer in 2002 boasted a changeup with a higher total value than Lincecum's, and in that year Moyer through the pitch 34.6% of the time, 13.2% more often than Lincecum. MLB hitters beware, baseball's ultimate weapon is Tim Lincecum's changeup.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Dan Uggla Hits the Trade Market
The Florida Marlins apparently have voiced their intentions to trade Dan Uggla, one of of the more consistent and underrated players in baseball. Uggla has two more arbitration years left and Florida expects him to get a bit more expensive than they would prefer. This gives other teams in baseball a huge opportunity to acquire an in-their-prime player who is not particularly expensive. The Marlins would like younger, cheaper, major-league ready options in exchange, so let's see if we can figure out the ideal landing spot for Uggla.
First however, I'd like to talk about just how good Uggla is. Uggla has played second base at a slightly below average level for the past four years, meaning he is not an asset with the glove but he probably will not kill you there either. A lot of teams expressing interest in Uggla plan to move him to third base, and I would expect him to be roughly an average defender at that position. As a hitter, Uggla comes from the "three-true outcomes" offensive philosophy. He strikes out a lot, walks a lot and hits a bunch of home runs. Unlike most guys of this mold though he actually hits a lot of doubles as well, which definitely helps. Last season he hit .243/.354/.459 but also posted the lowest BABIP of his career, meaning his numbers should have been a bit higher than that. In other words, Uggla is a very useful player to have on a team, not quite all-star caliber, but he is averaging over 3 WAR per season in his career.
So, what kind of team could particularly use Uggla, enough to want to trade for him? Well, they would have to be a team that would expect to be in contention or close to it next year, has a hole at second or third base and could use some power, particularly right-handed. Here are the teams that make the most sense in my opinion.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays were better than you think last year, Scoring significantly more runs than they allowed, and they also dealt with an insane amount of injuries to their pitching staff. They are also made up mostly of young on the rise players, and they still have Roy Halladay. However, they currently are slated to have Edwin Encarnacion as their starting third baseman and he not a great hitter and a brutal fielder. Toronto would probably have to give up one of their young pitchers and something else to get Uggla, but he plugs an obvious void for the team. He is not enough alone to push the Jays past the other monsters in the AL East, but it's a step in the right direction.
Minnesota Twins
Uggla is not really a player that fits what the Twins are typically looking for, which is unfortunate because he is a perfect fit for them. They currently seem to plan on starting Nick Punto at either third or second and I don't see how a team expects to go deep into the playoffs starting Punto everyday. The Twins two best hitters by far are both left-handed and Michael Cuddyer in the only right-handed player on the roster with power so Uggla helps to balance out the lineup.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are actually close to being competitive in their division. They have a lot of good young pitching and some decent role-players in the lineup but desperately need some more pop. It is also hard to imagine a team that has gotten less production out of the third base position than the A's the last couple of years, leaving a spot wide open for Uggla. They are already playing Jack Cust everyday, and Uggla is a right-handed version of him that can also play defense.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had to scramble mid-season last year to plug holes in left-field and third base with one-year solutions, so both holes actually still exist. Why not fix the problem at third base before the season? With Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus on their way out and Brett Wallace traded to Oakland, the best in house option might be David Freese who is probably not good enough for a team with playoff aspirations. The only possible power threats in this lineup beyond Pujols are maybe Ryan Ludwick or Colby Rasmus but neither is a sure thing yet so they could really use Uggla's 30 home runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are losing both Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard to free-agency so second base it once again an area of need. They might be more inclined to go with a defense-first player considering their already potent lineup, but the Dodgers are never afraid to make a trade so the possibility cannot be denied. However, they may be more focused on the pitching staff and Uggla will make more than Hudson did last year, possibly putting him over what they would be willing to spend.
San Francisco Giants
This to me is the best spot for Uggla. Since the Giants are locked into Freddy Sanchez at second, they would have to play Uggla at third and move Sandoval to first base, where he is a better fit anyway, and dump the Garko/Ishikawa duo that just isn't going to get it done. With Bengie Molina on his way out, only two players on the current roster had double-digit home runs last year and also only two players with OBP's over .330. This is a team with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but in desperate need for a bat. Buster Posey is almost ready, and he will help, but they need a lot more and the availability of Uggla is the perfect opportunity for them.
I could also see Uggla fitting in reasonably well with the Cubs, Braves, Rockies, Mariners and Phillies but don't think those teams make as much sense for various reasons; the Cubs have bigger needs elsewhere, the Phillies and Braves are both in-division and I don't think the Phillies would want to part with prospects to get him, the Rockies seem content with Barmes at second for some reason, and the Mariners probably would want a better defender for the salary Uggla makes.
There have also been reports that the Orioles have expressed interest in Uggla, and they do also need a third baseman. However, I think the Orioles are probably more than a year away at best, meaning they probably would not be ready to make a legitimate run at the division until after Uggla is due to hit the market. It is possible Baltimore believes they're closer than that or maybe they will just resign Uggla, but it does not seem like the best fit for me.
The Marlins should have plenty of suitors for Uggla and could probably get a decent haul for him. Each of the teams outlined above has plenty of reasons to go after Uggla but it is the Giants who stand the most to gain. They were a good team last year, even though they only had one good hitter on the roster, and they have a couple of prospects in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner nearly ready to break into the majors. Adding Uggla might be enough to put them over the edge. With Los Angeles also in the division, San Francisco has to be aggressive if they expect to keep up and the door is now open for them to do so.
First however, I'd like to talk about just how good Uggla is. Uggla has played second base at a slightly below average level for the past four years, meaning he is not an asset with the glove but he probably will not kill you there either. A lot of teams expressing interest in Uggla plan to move him to third base, and I would expect him to be roughly an average defender at that position. As a hitter, Uggla comes from the "three-true outcomes" offensive philosophy. He strikes out a lot, walks a lot and hits a bunch of home runs. Unlike most guys of this mold though he actually hits a lot of doubles as well, which definitely helps. Last season he hit .243/.354/.459 but also posted the lowest BABIP of his career, meaning his numbers should have been a bit higher than that. In other words, Uggla is a very useful player to have on a team, not quite all-star caliber, but he is averaging over 3 WAR per season in his career.
So, what kind of team could particularly use Uggla, enough to want to trade for him? Well, they would have to be a team that would expect to be in contention or close to it next year, has a hole at second or third base and could use some power, particularly right-handed. Here are the teams that make the most sense in my opinion.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays were better than you think last year, Scoring significantly more runs than they allowed, and they also dealt with an insane amount of injuries to their pitching staff. They are also made up mostly of young on the rise players, and they still have Roy Halladay. However, they currently are slated to have Edwin Encarnacion as their starting third baseman and he not a great hitter and a brutal fielder. Toronto would probably have to give up one of their young pitchers and something else to get Uggla, but he plugs an obvious void for the team. He is not enough alone to push the Jays past the other monsters in the AL East, but it's a step in the right direction.
Minnesota Twins
Uggla is not really a player that fits what the Twins are typically looking for, which is unfortunate because he is a perfect fit for them. They currently seem to plan on starting Nick Punto at either third or second and I don't see how a team expects to go deep into the playoffs starting Punto everyday. The Twins two best hitters by far are both left-handed and Michael Cuddyer in the only right-handed player on the roster with power so Uggla helps to balance out the lineup.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are actually close to being competitive in their division. They have a lot of good young pitching and some decent role-players in the lineup but desperately need some more pop. It is also hard to imagine a team that has gotten less production out of the third base position than the A's the last couple of years, leaving a spot wide open for Uggla. They are already playing Jack Cust everyday, and Uggla is a right-handed version of him that can also play defense.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals had to scramble mid-season last year to plug holes in left-field and third base with one-year solutions, so both holes actually still exist. Why not fix the problem at third base before the season? With Mark DeRosa and Troy Glaus on their way out and Brett Wallace traded to Oakland, the best in house option might be David Freese who is probably not good enough for a team with playoff aspirations. The only possible power threats in this lineup beyond Pujols are maybe Ryan Ludwick or Colby Rasmus but neither is a sure thing yet so they could really use Uggla's 30 home runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are losing both Orlando Hudson and Ronnie Belliard to free-agency so second base it once again an area of need. They might be more inclined to go with a defense-first player considering their already potent lineup, but the Dodgers are never afraid to make a trade so the possibility cannot be denied. However, they may be more focused on the pitching staff and Uggla will make more than Hudson did last year, possibly putting him over what they would be willing to spend.
San Francisco Giants
This to me is the best spot for Uggla. Since the Giants are locked into Freddy Sanchez at second, they would have to play Uggla at third and move Sandoval to first base, where he is a better fit anyway, and dump the Garko/Ishikawa duo that just isn't going to get it done. With Bengie Molina on his way out, only two players on the current roster had double-digit home runs last year and also only two players with OBP's over .330. This is a team with one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but in desperate need for a bat. Buster Posey is almost ready, and he will help, but they need a lot more and the availability of Uggla is the perfect opportunity for them.
I could also see Uggla fitting in reasonably well with the Cubs, Braves, Rockies, Mariners and Phillies but don't think those teams make as much sense for various reasons; the Cubs have bigger needs elsewhere, the Phillies and Braves are both in-division and I don't think the Phillies would want to part with prospects to get him, the Rockies seem content with Barmes at second for some reason, and the Mariners probably would want a better defender for the salary Uggla makes.
There have also been reports that the Orioles have expressed interest in Uggla, and they do also need a third baseman. However, I think the Orioles are probably more than a year away at best, meaning they probably would not be ready to make a legitimate run at the division until after Uggla is due to hit the market. It is possible Baltimore believes they're closer than that or maybe they will just resign Uggla, but it does not seem like the best fit for me.
The Marlins should have plenty of suitors for Uggla and could probably get a decent haul for him. Each of the teams outlined above has plenty of reasons to go after Uggla but it is the Giants who stand the most to gain. They were a good team last year, even though they only had one good hitter on the roster, and they have a couple of prospects in Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner nearly ready to break into the majors. Adding Uggla might be enough to put them over the edge. With Los Angeles also in the division, San Francisco has to be aggressive if they expect to keep up and the door is now open for them to do so.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
The True Gold Gloves
Anyone who follows baseball closely realizes that the players who win the gold gloves are often not the best fielders in the league. The voters simply don't seem to care very much about who they vote for, which is a shame, but luckily we can just ignore them and figure out who should have won ourselves. Here are the people that, based on the most advanced statistics available, probably should have won the awards. I am basing this mostly on this year's performance, but also factoring in performance in the past couple of years as well since fielding stats are more accurate with the larger sample size.
American League
C - Gerald Laird; HO - Joe Mauer
Not really a surprise here, Laird is an excellent athlete for a catcher, he's excellent at nabbing base-stealers and one of the best on the bunt.
1B - Kendry Morales; HO - Kevin Youkilis
First base is the hardest position to really get statistically, but Morales combines exceptional assist, putout and fielding % numbers. It would have been Youkilis if he'd spent the whole season at first, but I cannot justify giving him the award since he just didn't rack up enough innings.
2B - Dustin Pedroia; HO - Placido Polanco
Purely on this years statistics, Polanco was better this year and Ian Kinsler was about equal; however, Pedroia has been better over the last few seasons on the whole by a respectable amount and given the large amount of noise in fielding statistics I feel that Pedroia is the proper choice.
3B - Evan Longoria; HO - Chone Figgins/Adrian Beltre
All three of these guys are really superb fielders, but Longoria has been the best, both this year and combining the last two. If you have watched him play, it is impossible to miss his lightning reflexes and strong, accurate arm.
SS - Elvis Andrus; HO - Cesar Izturis
Izturis and Adam Everett actually were slightly better than Andrus on a rate basis, but because Andrus played basically 300 more innings at SS than either of them, I'm giving him the award. He has phenomenal range and makes very few mental mistakes, particularly for someone so young.
OF - Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Sweeney, Carl Crawford; HO - B.J. Upton, Ichiro, David Dejesus
Gutierrez is probably the best defensive player in all of baseball. He essentially laps the field in terms of outfielders and the fact that he didn't win a real gold glove this year is criminally negligent. Ryan Sweeney goes completely unnoticed in Oakland but he has both great range and a fantastic arm, he's the only one in the same area code as Gutierrez on a rate basis. Crawford is really a centerfielder playing left, but he does it so much better than everyone else he gets the third glove.
P - Mark Buehrle; HO - Felix Hernandez
Buehrle's defense is one of the subtle reasons he has so much success despite not striking out many guys or having great stuff. Ground-ball inducing left-handers tend to be the best fielding pitchers partially out of opportunity but also often out of necessity.
National League
C - Yadier Molina; HO - Russ Martin
Anyone who has watched Molina play the catcher position realizes he just does it differently than everyone else. He makes every base-runner nervous and passive while being rock-solid in blocking pitches as well. His quick feet and rocket arm also make him one of the best at fielding bunts. He also is the most aggressive catcher at trying to get lead runners or throwing behind people and steals several outs that way over the course of the season.
1B - Albert Pujols; HO - Adrian Gonzalez
Forget complicated defensive metrics, Pujols led NL 1B's in assists by 49 and putouts by 84! He's not just the best hitter in baseball but probably the best all around player.
2B - Chase Utley; HO - Brandon Phillips
Perhaps the only player that could give Pujols a run at best all-around player is Utley. He has been the best defensive second baseman in all of baseball for several years now and somehow has not won a gold glove yet. I think it is mostly a stereo type thing; people see a slugging second baseman and automatically assume he is a stiff, completely ignoring the fact that he gets to more balls than anyone else out there.
3B - Ryan Zimmerman; HO - Kevin Kouzmanoff
Zimmerman really has no competition for this award, he is similar to Longoria. A great athlete with quick reflexes and a big arm who makes both the spectacular play and the routine one.
SS - JJ Hardy; HO - Ryan Theriot - Hardy, Theriot and Rafael Furcal were all pretty even this year but I'm giving the award to Hardy based on his track record the last few seasons. Hardy would have probably separated himself on his own if he wasn't bench for poor hitting late in the year anyway.
OF - Nyjer Morgan, Randy Winn, Mike Cameron; HO - Colby Rasmus, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence
P - Ubaldo Jimenez; HO - Jason Marquis
Morgan is not only one of the fastest outfielders in the majors, but he also takes perfect routes, allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. Even if his hitting tumbles (which it probably will) he is still a valuable asset. Cameron and Winn are both getting up there in years and while they may have lost a step, they make up for it with intelligent positioning. Both are still at the top of the class in terms of range.
American League
C - Gerald Laird; HO - Joe Mauer
Not really a surprise here, Laird is an excellent athlete for a catcher, he's excellent at nabbing base-stealers and one of the best on the bunt.
1B - Kendry Morales; HO - Kevin Youkilis
First base is the hardest position to really get statistically, but Morales combines exceptional assist, putout and fielding % numbers. It would have been Youkilis if he'd spent the whole season at first, but I cannot justify giving him the award since he just didn't rack up enough innings.
2B - Dustin Pedroia; HO - Placido Polanco
Purely on this years statistics, Polanco was better this year and Ian Kinsler was about equal; however, Pedroia has been better over the last few seasons on the whole by a respectable amount and given the large amount of noise in fielding statistics I feel that Pedroia is the proper choice.
3B - Evan Longoria; HO - Chone Figgins/Adrian Beltre
All three of these guys are really superb fielders, but Longoria has been the best, both this year and combining the last two. If you have watched him play, it is impossible to miss his lightning reflexes and strong, accurate arm.
SS - Elvis Andrus; HO - Cesar Izturis
Izturis and Adam Everett actually were slightly better than Andrus on a rate basis, but because Andrus played basically 300 more innings at SS than either of them, I'm giving him the award. He has phenomenal range and makes very few mental mistakes, particularly for someone so young.
OF - Franklin Gutierrez, Ryan Sweeney, Carl Crawford; HO - B.J. Upton, Ichiro, David Dejesus
Gutierrez is probably the best defensive player in all of baseball. He essentially laps the field in terms of outfielders and the fact that he didn't win a real gold glove this year is criminally negligent. Ryan Sweeney goes completely unnoticed in Oakland but he has both great range and a fantastic arm, he's the only one in the same area code as Gutierrez on a rate basis. Crawford is really a centerfielder playing left, but he does it so much better than everyone else he gets the third glove.
P - Mark Buehrle; HO - Felix Hernandez
Buehrle's defense is one of the subtle reasons he has so much success despite not striking out many guys or having great stuff. Ground-ball inducing left-handers tend to be the best fielding pitchers partially out of opportunity but also often out of necessity.
National League
C - Yadier Molina; HO - Russ Martin
Anyone who has watched Molina play the catcher position realizes he just does it differently than everyone else. He makes every base-runner nervous and passive while being rock-solid in blocking pitches as well. His quick feet and rocket arm also make him one of the best at fielding bunts. He also is the most aggressive catcher at trying to get lead runners or throwing behind people and steals several outs that way over the course of the season.
1B - Albert Pujols; HO - Adrian Gonzalez
Forget complicated defensive metrics, Pujols led NL 1B's in assists by 49 and putouts by 84! He's not just the best hitter in baseball but probably the best all around player.
2B - Chase Utley; HO - Brandon Phillips
Perhaps the only player that could give Pujols a run at best all-around player is Utley. He has been the best defensive second baseman in all of baseball for several years now and somehow has not won a gold glove yet. I think it is mostly a stereo type thing; people see a slugging second baseman and automatically assume he is a stiff, completely ignoring the fact that he gets to more balls than anyone else out there.
3B - Ryan Zimmerman; HO - Kevin Kouzmanoff
Zimmerman really has no competition for this award, he is similar to Longoria. A great athlete with quick reflexes and a big arm who makes both the spectacular play and the routine one.
SS - JJ Hardy; HO - Ryan Theriot - Hardy, Theriot and Rafael Furcal were all pretty even this year but I'm giving the award to Hardy based on his track record the last few seasons. Hardy would have probably separated himself on his own if he wasn't bench for poor hitting late in the year anyway.
OF - Nyjer Morgan, Randy Winn, Mike Cameron; HO - Colby Rasmus, Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence
P - Ubaldo Jimenez; HO - Jason Marquis
Morgan is not only one of the fastest outfielders in the majors, but he also takes perfect routes, allowing him to take full advantage of his speed. Even if his hitting tumbles (which it probably will) he is still a valuable asset. Cameron and Winn are both getting up there in years and while they may have lost a step, they make up for it with intelligent positioning. Both are still at the top of the class in terms of range.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Everybody Should Throw a Cutter
I was recently looking through fangraph's pitching value stats when something struck me. It involved the effectiveness of the cutter, a pitch made famous by Mariano Rivera but thrown by several other pitchers with a great deal of effectiveness.
In the last two year among qualified starters, 17 pitchers can be said to use a cutter often enough that it can be considered a legitimate part of their repertoire. Those 18 pitchers are: Roy Halladay, Scott Feldman, Dan Haren, Jon Lester, John Danks, Andy Pettitte, Chad Billingsley, Jason Marquis, Doug Davis, Jamie Moyer, John Garland, Mark Buehrle, Brian Bannister, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Nick Blackburn, Jarrod Washburn. That is an interesting cross-section of players. We have power pitchers, finesse pitchers, stars, mediocre players, lefties and righties.
The big point however is that these are the only starting pitchers who throw cutters routinely in baseball right now and the striking thing is that all of their cutters are effective. With every other pitch available to a person you will find some that are very good and some that are very bad. For every Zack Greinke slider there is a Braden Looper slider, for every Adam Wainwright curve you have a Joe Saunders. Not so, with the cutter. Out of those 17 pitchers, the worst cutter belongs to Jarrod Washburn, but even his was just barely a below average pitch. Conversely there are a lot of pitchers whose cutters are extremely effective.
Out of the 17 pitchers listed, for nine of them, the cutter is their most effective pitch. Those nine include Halladay, Lester, Haren, Danks, and Pettitte who are some of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Just as interestingly, in zero cases is the cutter the worst pitch in any of those players' repertoire.
The data for the relief pitchers in baseball is actually very similar to this, for most of the players who employ a cutter, it is their best pitch and for almost no one who uses is regularly does it have a negative value.
All of this data seems to suggest that the cutter, in general, is an incredibly useful pitch to learn and use. It seems that more pitchers are learning it every year and it has helped their careers immensely. Scott Feldman only starting using it often this year and turned himself from an average reliever into an above average starter. Roy Halladay's spike in strikeouts recently corresponds directly to his increased use of the cutter. John Danks had a poor rookie season in 2007, learned a cutter in 2008 and turned himself into a borderline all-star. These are perfect examples of how learning this pitch has greatly altered a players career for the better. All of you pitcher out there take note; if you want to become a better pitcher, learn a cutter!
In the last two year among qualified starters, 17 pitchers can be said to use a cutter often enough that it can be considered a legitimate part of their repertoire. Those 18 pitchers are: Roy Halladay, Scott Feldman, Dan Haren, Jon Lester, John Danks, Andy Pettitte, Chad Billingsley, Jason Marquis, Doug Davis, Jamie Moyer, John Garland, Mark Buehrle, Brian Bannister, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Nick Blackburn, Jarrod Washburn. That is an interesting cross-section of players. We have power pitchers, finesse pitchers, stars, mediocre players, lefties and righties.
The big point however is that these are the only starting pitchers who throw cutters routinely in baseball right now and the striking thing is that all of their cutters are effective. With every other pitch available to a person you will find some that are very good and some that are very bad. For every Zack Greinke slider there is a Braden Looper slider, for every Adam Wainwright curve you have a Joe Saunders. Not so, with the cutter. Out of those 17 pitchers, the worst cutter belongs to Jarrod Washburn, but even his was just barely a below average pitch. Conversely there are a lot of pitchers whose cutters are extremely effective.
Out of the 17 pitchers listed, for nine of them, the cutter is their most effective pitch. Those nine include Halladay, Lester, Haren, Danks, and Pettitte who are some of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Just as interestingly, in zero cases is the cutter the worst pitch in any of those players' repertoire.
The data for the relief pitchers in baseball is actually very similar to this, for most of the players who employ a cutter, it is their best pitch and for almost no one who uses is regularly does it have a negative value.
All of this data seems to suggest that the cutter, in general, is an incredibly useful pitch to learn and use. It seems that more pitchers are learning it every year and it has helped their careers immensely. Scott Feldman only starting using it often this year and turned himself from an average reliever into an above average starter. Roy Halladay's spike in strikeouts recently corresponds directly to his increased use of the cutter. John Danks had a poor rookie season in 2007, learned a cutter in 2008 and turned himself into a borderline all-star. These are perfect examples of how learning this pitch has greatly altered a players career for the better. All of you pitcher out there take note; if you want to become a better pitcher, learn a cutter!
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Trades That Should Happen
Just some trades that won't happen during the 2009/2010 baseball season, but ones I think would be beneficial to both teams if they did.
Angels get: Joakim Soria, Gil Meche
Royals get: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden
The Angels get a lockdown closer who can be combined with Kevin Jepsen, Jose Arredondo, Brian Fuentes and Jose Arredondo to recreate the dominant bullpens Los Angeles had early in the decade. With John Lackey most likely out of town this off-season Meche will be a valuable pitcher who should benefit a great deal from moving to a team that can actually play some defense behind him. His FIP is in the low 4's over the last few years which is actually fairly reasonable for his contract which does not have a huge commitment still remaining. The Angels lose several promising young players that do not really fit into their current plans except possibly Conger, who is the highest ceiling player of the group.
Kansas City gives up two players who will either be out of town or too expensive by the time the Royals are competitive again. The Royals will play Wood at shortstop, his natural position and he has the potential of being a huge asset for the franchise if he delivers on some of immense potential. The Royals also have no long-term catching solution in the system and Conger fills that role. Reckling and Walden are both solid pitching prospects with good arms that would be a big help to the franchise if they develop properly. Bourjos has the potential to be an elite defender in center, something this franchise desperately needs and he should be ready by the time Crisp is headed out of town.
Braves get: Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell
Padres get: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel
The Braves have one of the best rotations is baseball but need a little more offensive fire power. Getting Adrian Gonzalez changes the entire dynamic of that lineup, slotting him with McCann, Chipper and McClouth suddenly makes them look dangerous. Getting Bell is just a bonus for bullpen insurance for the inevitable Soriano/Gonzalez injury. The Braves obviously have to give up a lot to get this pair, but they seem to have become annoyed with Escobar's attitude, making him more expendable. Schafer is also blocked now that McLouth is in Atlanta, and Medlen is never going to crack the rotation and Bell is a better fit in the bullpen. Giving up the two electric armed righties (Teheran and Kimbrel) really hurts, but it seems worth the risk to me.
The Padres are not close to being competitive and should cash in on their two valuable trade chips while they can. In Escobar and Schafer they get two up the middle players that they desperately need. Also, both of their offensive games are perfectly suited to the massive park in San Diego. Medlen would actually probably be the Padres best starter as soon as he joins the team. Kimbrel is close to pitching key big league innings already and Teheran's ceiling is higher than just about any pitcher in the minors. The Padres would need a large haul to give up their star player and this package seems like enough to get it done.
Red Sox get: J.J. Hardy, Mitch Stetter
Brewers get: Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson
*I wrote this before the Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez; I think my hypothetical trade would have been much better for the Brewers, but whatever.
The Red Sox have really struggled to fill in shortstop for several years right now and Hardy should be a perfect stopgap until some of their young prospects are ready. Hardy is one of the best defensive shortstops around and was at least a pretty good hitter in '07 and '08 before falling apart some last year. I think in reality he is probably an average hitter for a shortstop which is plenty considering his defense. Stetter gives the Red Sox the lefty specialist they haven't had for a bit, and lets Okajima face both lefties and righties, a role he is better at anyway.
Milwaukee really wants to move Hardy because they believe Alcides Escobar is their longterm shortstop and he is ready. While I think it is a bit silly to trade Hardy when his value is low, like it is now, they do seem like they want to move him. In exchange they get Bowden, a player who is ready to step into a rotation, and should find some success right away in the NL; they also get Lars Anderson, a former top prospect who had a really tough '08 and has lost some hype as a result. This would be a worthwhile gamble on the Brewers, particularly because Anderson plays 1B and it does not seem like Prince Fielder is going to be in Milwaukee all that much longer.
Red Sox get: Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells
Blue Jays get: Jed Lowrie, Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejeda, Bryce Cox
Toronto knows they are going to lose Roy Halladay after the season and they know that as long as Vernon Wells' insane contract is on their books they are pretty much hamstrung from doing anything. In step the Red Sox as one of probably only 3 teams in baseball that can solve both of those problems. The Red Sox make enough revenue to eat Wells' contract and they currently do not have a left fielder anyway, so Wells can have that spot. Wells is not as bad as he was last year and over the next 5 years I wouldn't be surprised if he was as valuable as Bay ends up being anyway. However, the main reason Boston does this trade is obviously Halladay. This would give them a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Matsuzaka and Buchholz... wow. Trading for him early on would also give them the inside track on gaining his services for the next contract he signs, something that would be very appealing to Boston.
The salary dump is not nearly as common in baseball as it is in basketball but this really seems like a necessary move at this point for Toronto. They have a great young core in Lind/Snider/Hill and all of that pitching. Lowrie is probably good enough to start at SS everyday when healthy and the Jays seem unlikely to resign Scutaro anyway. Kalish is no more than a year away from helping in the majors and would take over the centerfield job at that point. Tejada is a fairly high ceiling middle infielder who has not really hit yet but would be a nice prize if he figures it out. Cox showed some serious potential briefly in college but has never lived up to that as a pro. He's fallen off the radar a good bit but as a throw in, he is interesting.
Yankees get: Carl Crawford
Rays get: Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Manny Banuelos
The Yankees desperately want to get younger and with Damon and Matsui's contracts both up this is a golden opportunity for them. Crawford is under contract for two more years and would probably relish the opportunity to play in New York after losing to them for so many years. Crawford would take over Damon's spot in the order and provide better offense and significantly better defense, the Yankees may even toy with the idea of playing him centerfield. Losing Joba Chamberlain is a serious blow but he struggled quite a bit as a starter and Hughes seems like he might actually be the better longterm fit in either the rotation or the pen anyway. Robertson instantly becomes one of the Rays best relievers and Banuelos is one of the under 20 year-old pitchers in minors.
Crawford is getting expensive for the Rays and they have Desmond Jennings practically ready to join the big leagues. They also have Matt Joyce who is probably deserving of some big league time to use in the interim if they felt it was necessary. In Chamberlain the Rays get either a cheap high-ceiling starter, or possibly their long-term solution at closer. They have a ton of young pitching but Chamberlain's ceiling compares to any of them. Robertson would be an upgrade over a number of relievers the Rays were forced to lose last year and Banuelos should be extremely valuable a couple years from now when the next wave of pitching departs the team and they again need to reload.
Yankees get: Zack Greinke, John Buck, Coco Crisp
Royals get: Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner
From the Yankees perspective, the reason to do this trade is obvious. They just won the World Series mostly due to pitching and in this scenario they just saw the Red Sox trade for Roy Halladay and they need to respond. Greinke is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, something the Yankees will always covet. They would obviously do almost anything to get him and this is frankly doing anything. The only player on the active roster they are losing is Cano who does not really fit what the team wants to do at the plate anyway despite his enormous talents. There are actually some solid second baseman on the market this year including Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa and Jerry Hairston who is already in town. However, I may have another idea...
Why should the Royals trade a young, outstanding starting pitcher who is under contract at a reasonable rate for the next three years? Simply, because they have so many holes to fill and the only way they could fill a bunch of them is by trading away a superstar. Cano instantly becomes arguably their best hitter and is a much better than their incumbent second baseman, Alberto Callaspo who is not useless with the bat. Maybe they can move Callaspo to third, Gordon to 1st and Jacobs to the bench, improving their defense and offense in one felt swoop. In Jesus Montero they get arguably the best hitting prospect in baseball. He doesn't have a position really, but his bat will play anywhere and unlike the Yankees, who have Mark Teixeira, first base would be available to him. Austin Jackson is just about major league ready and would already be an improvement over Jose Guillen or Mitch Maier and is at least equal to David Dejesus while being much cheaper. Zach McAllister is about a year away from the majors and should be a durable, mid-rotation starter, while Ian Kennedy would benefit from being out of New York and should be a help at the back of their rotation. Brett Gardner does everything Coco Crisp does but is cheaper and under control for another five years, making him more appealing that Crisp to the Royals.
Yankees get: Rickie Weeks
Brewers get: Chien-Ming Wang, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, George Kontos
The Yankees replace Cano with a player that actually has a higher ceiling and an approach that more resembles the organization's patient philosophy. Weeks obviously comes with a huge amount of injury baggage, but maybe a change of scenery would help things out and in New York he would not have to press so much and could just blend in with the team better. Expectations have dropped significantly for him but he was off to a great start last season and getting him would make the Yankees more willing to deal Cano. Also, the Yankees proved last year that they could win without Wang and Aceves is very replaceable for them. Kontos is an interesting starting pitcher with decent stuff, particularly his secondary pitches, but he is a better fit in the National League.
The Brewers proved last year that they really did not need Weeks to have success, but what they did desperately need was starting pitching. This team essentially had one starting pitcher that wasn't significantly below average last season in Yovani Gallardo. It is not a stretch to say that Wang and Aceves could be their second and third best starters next season. Phil Coke had an alright season as a reliever this year, but he was mostly being used as a lefty specialist which does not make sense because his breaking pitch is his third best offering. Coke showed enough fastball and a good enough changeup to make some believe he could find a home in the back end of a rotation some day and in the NL Central the Brewers could do worse than to try him in the rotation. Kontos gives them another guy close to the majors who could contribute before long.
Cubs get: Brian Roberts
Orioles get: Starlin Castro, Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter
The Cubs have had a massive hole at both second base and at the leadoff spot in the lineup. In Roberts they get a player who is one of the best in the business at both. Despite the Cubs poor 2009 season, the pieces to win are there. Having Soriano and Ramirez around for the whole season, combined with Geovany Soto remembering how to play and Roberts would make their lineup formidable again, and there is nothing wrong with their pitching. None of the players they are giving up here could realistically help them this year, and considering the makeup of their team that has to be a primary concern. All three have good ceilings, but Chicago should be willing to sacrifice that for such a perfect solution as Roberts who is also under a reasonable contract for several years.
The Orioles are still a couple years away from being playoff contenders. They have most of their positions moving forward locked down but shortstop is a massive problem and Castro is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. He could probably be ready by 2011 to do what Elvis Andrus did in 2009 and his bat has a lot more potential than Andrus. While the Orioles have many good young arms, you can never have too many and the extra incentive of getting back Cashner and Carpenter as well would make them willing to deal Roberts.
Mets get: Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski
White Sox get: Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee, Jefry Marte
The Mets want to be able to make a run at the NL East in 2010 (and rightfully so) but really do not have any really good options at 1B or C. However, they do have a couple of players who might be good options in 2011 in Ike Davis (if he learns to hit a curveball) and Josh Thole (if he learns how to catch), so a short-term commitment makes sense. In Konerko and Pierzynski they get two obvious upgrades for 2010 without blocking either of their prospects or making a serious monetary commitment. This is the perfect trade for them to help them make a run at this season and the none of the prospects they are giving up are among the best in the system either.
The White Sox are probably not going to be in the AL Central race in 2010 and should try to turn the expiring deals of Pierzynski and Konerko into something before they depart. Neither is a particularly great player anyway and both are starting to get old so they probably would not be part of the next competitive White Sox team anyway. While I would want different prospects back from the Mets, these three make sense based on their organizational philosophy. Tejada and Marte are high ceiling players with lots of tools and little polish. Both could be great MLB players or never make it at all, but those are the kinds of players they tend to seek out. Gee is more low profile, but given how good the White Sox have been at turning mediocre pitching prospects into big leaguers by teaching them a cutter, I like their chances at developing Gee better than the Mets'
Mets get: Roy Oswalt
Astros get: Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens
This is the first step of the necessary rebuilding the Astros need to realize is overdue. Oswalt has been the face of the franchise along with Berkman for awhile now, but he is past his prime and it is time to trade him before he loses value. The Mets desperately need some starting pitching and this trade lets them get a player to slot in behind Santana. He is a significant upgrade over all their other starting pitchers and they probably would be better off by also pursing John Lackey and that would give them a top 3 that could compete with any NL team. Oswalt would also benefit from moving to a much more pitcher friendly park, allowing him to throw his high fastball more often. Losing Mejia is the biggest risk here as he has potential front of the rotation stuff, however he is not a sure thing.
The Astros will lose their most reliable starter, but in exchange get half a their future rotation back. Niese is a major-league ready mid rotation starter and Mejia has the potential to be much more than that. He is a bit high risk because he is on the short side and his secondary pitches need work, but the quality of his arm is undeniable. Holt could make it as a starter but is more likely a power reliever. Either way he is another valuable arm for this team. The Astros don't really have a longterm middle infielder in their system and Havens looks like he could be a solid shortstop in the bigs.
Athletics get: Lance Berkman
Astros get: Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa
This one seems like a bit of a surprise I'm sure but it actually makes sense. The Athletics are going to be good next year and probably very good the year after that. Berkman is under contract for a not-ridiculous 14 million next season and there is a club option for 2011. The Athletics have a ton of great young pitchers and some solid hitters but they desperately need an offensive centerpiece, like the one Matt Holliday was supposed to be last year. This package they are giving up is full of high ceiling talent but only one player who was a key factor on the major league roster last year in Mazzaro. He is somewhat expendable because their rotation should be Anderson-Cahill-Braden-Gonzalez-X next year. They have plenty of other decent option to fill in that last spot at pretty much the same level Mazzaro would offer. This is a lot of talent to give up, but Berkman is a real impact player and they do not have a true first baseman in the system right now anyway.
This would be a bitter pill for the Astros to swallow, but they are not close to being competitive and should try to get some value back for Berkman. In exchange they get 4 guys who are essentially locks to contribute something at the major league level, and in most cases they have well above average potential. They also get two very intriguing player in Desme and the true gem of the deal Michael Ynoa. Desme is destroying the AFL right now and could easily be a much more well known prospect if he hadn't missed so much time with injuries the last couple of seasons. Ynoa is the ultimate boom or bust prospect. A 6'7 18-year-old with incredible stuff and polish for his age who scouts dream could be a star in the majors. Obviously he is really far away from the majors, at least three full years, but his upside is undeniable.
Giants get: Carlos Lee
Astros get: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin
For a team that is not competitive Carlos Lee's contract is a serious burden. Because of that the Astros should not expect that much of a haul for him, but the Giants should have the ability to take on most of that deal considering Edgar Renteria, Randy Johnson, Randy Winn, and Noah Lowry's contracts come off the books next year. The Giants desperately need offense. This allows them to acquire a very dangerous bat without giving up either of their two young stud starters or either of their two star prospects, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Lee is not much of a defender in left, but for an offense this anemic they should be willing to deal with that.
The Astros are freed from Lee's contract and get some interesting players back. Sanchez has a ton of stuff and every year gets closer to putting it all together. Lewis looks like he is probably a league average hitter with some defensive upside. Romo is already capable of being a solid setup man and Joaquin has the arm to close but not the polish yet. Considering this is mostly a salary dump, the Astros should be pleased to get this much back.
A minor aside
A lot of the deals I've made here center around two teams that have desperately needed to rebuild for awhile now but seem unwilling to do so, the Royals and Astros. In both cases I have only traded away players that would either be past their price, priced out of their market, or simply no longer on the team by the time either franchise is ready to be competitive again. And look at the players each is getting back in exchange for those parts:
Royals: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden, Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner
Astros: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin, Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa, Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens
In both cases that is a serious amount of both high end talent and high probability returns. I think in both cases these franchises would be much better long-term shape if they did these trades although I know they wouldn't happen because only the Marlins have ever shown the ability to truly tear down a roster and build it back up... and it worked for them.
Angels get: Joakim Soria, Gil Meche
Royals get: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden
The Angels get a lockdown closer who can be combined with Kevin Jepsen, Jose Arredondo, Brian Fuentes and Jose Arredondo to recreate the dominant bullpens Los Angeles had early in the decade. With John Lackey most likely out of town this off-season Meche will be a valuable pitcher who should benefit a great deal from moving to a team that can actually play some defense behind him. His FIP is in the low 4's over the last few years which is actually fairly reasonable for his contract which does not have a huge commitment still remaining. The Angels lose several promising young players that do not really fit into their current plans except possibly Conger, who is the highest ceiling player of the group.
Kansas City gives up two players who will either be out of town or too expensive by the time the Royals are competitive again. The Royals will play Wood at shortstop, his natural position and he has the potential of being a huge asset for the franchise if he delivers on some of immense potential. The Royals also have no long-term catching solution in the system and Conger fills that role. Reckling and Walden are both solid pitching prospects with good arms that would be a big help to the franchise if they develop properly. Bourjos has the potential to be an elite defender in center, something this franchise desperately needs and he should be ready by the time Crisp is headed out of town.
Braves get: Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell
Padres get: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Craig Kimbrel
The Braves have one of the best rotations is baseball but need a little more offensive fire power. Getting Adrian Gonzalez changes the entire dynamic of that lineup, slotting him with McCann, Chipper and McClouth suddenly makes them look dangerous. Getting Bell is just a bonus for bullpen insurance for the inevitable Soriano/Gonzalez injury. The Braves obviously have to give up a lot to get this pair, but they seem to have become annoyed with Escobar's attitude, making him more expendable. Schafer is also blocked now that McLouth is in Atlanta, and Medlen is never going to crack the rotation and Bell is a better fit in the bullpen. Giving up the two electric armed righties (Teheran and Kimbrel) really hurts, but it seems worth the risk to me.
The Padres are not close to being competitive and should cash in on their two valuable trade chips while they can. In Escobar and Schafer they get two up the middle players that they desperately need. Also, both of their offensive games are perfectly suited to the massive park in San Diego. Medlen would actually probably be the Padres best starter as soon as he joins the team. Kimbrel is close to pitching key big league innings already and Teheran's ceiling is higher than just about any pitcher in the minors. The Padres would need a large haul to give up their star player and this package seems like enough to get it done.
Red Sox get: J.J. Hardy, Mitch Stetter
Brewers get: Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson
*I wrote this before the Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins for Carlos Gomez; I think my hypothetical trade would have been much better for the Brewers, but whatever.
The Red Sox have really struggled to fill in shortstop for several years right now and Hardy should be a perfect stopgap until some of their young prospects are ready. Hardy is one of the best defensive shortstops around and was at least a pretty good hitter in '07 and '08 before falling apart some last year. I think in reality he is probably an average hitter for a shortstop which is plenty considering his defense. Stetter gives the Red Sox the lefty specialist they haven't had for a bit, and lets Okajima face both lefties and righties, a role he is better at anyway.
Milwaukee really wants to move Hardy because they believe Alcides Escobar is their longterm shortstop and he is ready. While I think it is a bit silly to trade Hardy when his value is low, like it is now, they do seem like they want to move him. In exchange they get Bowden, a player who is ready to step into a rotation, and should find some success right away in the NL; they also get Lars Anderson, a former top prospect who had a really tough '08 and has lost some hype as a result. This would be a worthwhile gamble on the Brewers, particularly because Anderson plays 1B and it does not seem like Prince Fielder is going to be in Milwaukee all that much longer.
Red Sox get: Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells
Blue Jays get: Jed Lowrie, Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejeda, Bryce Cox
Toronto knows they are going to lose Roy Halladay after the season and they know that as long as Vernon Wells' insane contract is on their books they are pretty much hamstrung from doing anything. In step the Red Sox as one of probably only 3 teams in baseball that can solve both of those problems. The Red Sox make enough revenue to eat Wells' contract and they currently do not have a left fielder anyway, so Wells can have that spot. Wells is not as bad as he was last year and over the next 5 years I wouldn't be surprised if he was as valuable as Bay ends up being anyway. However, the main reason Boston does this trade is obviously Halladay. This would give them a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay, Matsuzaka and Buchholz... wow. Trading for him early on would also give them the inside track on gaining his services for the next contract he signs, something that would be very appealing to Boston.
The salary dump is not nearly as common in baseball as it is in basketball but this really seems like a necessary move at this point for Toronto. They have a great young core in Lind/Snider/Hill and all of that pitching. Lowrie is probably good enough to start at SS everyday when healthy and the Jays seem unlikely to resign Scutaro anyway. Kalish is no more than a year away from helping in the majors and would take over the centerfield job at that point. Tejada is a fairly high ceiling middle infielder who has not really hit yet but would be a nice prize if he figures it out. Cox showed some serious potential briefly in college but has never lived up to that as a pro. He's fallen off the radar a good bit but as a throw in, he is interesting.
Yankees get: Carl Crawford
Rays get: Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson, Manny Banuelos
The Yankees desperately want to get younger and with Damon and Matsui's contracts both up this is a golden opportunity for them. Crawford is under contract for two more years and would probably relish the opportunity to play in New York after losing to them for so many years. Crawford would take over Damon's spot in the order and provide better offense and significantly better defense, the Yankees may even toy with the idea of playing him centerfield. Losing Joba Chamberlain is a serious blow but he struggled quite a bit as a starter and Hughes seems like he might actually be the better longterm fit in either the rotation or the pen anyway. Robertson instantly becomes one of the Rays best relievers and Banuelos is one of the under 20 year-old pitchers in minors.
Crawford is getting expensive for the Rays and they have Desmond Jennings practically ready to join the big leagues. They also have Matt Joyce who is probably deserving of some big league time to use in the interim if they felt it was necessary. In Chamberlain the Rays get either a cheap high-ceiling starter, or possibly their long-term solution at closer. They have a ton of young pitching but Chamberlain's ceiling compares to any of them. Robertson would be an upgrade over a number of relievers the Rays were forced to lose last year and Banuelos should be extremely valuable a couple years from now when the next wave of pitching departs the team and they again need to reload.
Yankees get: Zack Greinke, John Buck, Coco Crisp
Royals get: Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner
From the Yankees perspective, the reason to do this trade is obvious. They just won the World Series mostly due to pitching and in this scenario they just saw the Red Sox trade for Roy Halladay and they need to respond. Greinke is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, something the Yankees will always covet. They would obviously do almost anything to get him and this is frankly doing anything. The only player on the active roster they are losing is Cano who does not really fit what the team wants to do at the plate anyway despite his enormous talents. There are actually some solid second baseman on the market this year including Felipe Lopez, Orlando Hudson, Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa and Jerry Hairston who is already in town. However, I may have another idea...
Why should the Royals trade a young, outstanding starting pitcher who is under contract at a reasonable rate for the next three years? Simply, because they have so many holes to fill and the only way they could fill a bunch of them is by trading away a superstar. Cano instantly becomes arguably their best hitter and is a much better than their incumbent second baseman, Alberto Callaspo who is not useless with the bat. Maybe they can move Callaspo to third, Gordon to 1st and Jacobs to the bench, improving their defense and offense in one felt swoop. In Jesus Montero they get arguably the best hitting prospect in baseball. He doesn't have a position really, but his bat will play anywhere and unlike the Yankees, who have Mark Teixeira, first base would be available to him. Austin Jackson is just about major league ready and would already be an improvement over Jose Guillen or Mitch Maier and is at least equal to David Dejesus while being much cheaper. Zach McAllister is about a year away from the majors and should be a durable, mid-rotation starter, while Ian Kennedy would benefit from being out of New York and should be a help at the back of their rotation. Brett Gardner does everything Coco Crisp does but is cheaper and under control for another five years, making him more appealing that Crisp to the Royals.
Yankees get: Rickie Weeks
Brewers get: Chien-Ming Wang, Alfredo Aceves, Phil Coke, George Kontos
The Yankees replace Cano with a player that actually has a higher ceiling and an approach that more resembles the organization's patient philosophy. Weeks obviously comes with a huge amount of injury baggage, but maybe a change of scenery would help things out and in New York he would not have to press so much and could just blend in with the team better. Expectations have dropped significantly for him but he was off to a great start last season and getting him would make the Yankees more willing to deal Cano. Also, the Yankees proved last year that they could win without Wang and Aceves is very replaceable for them. Kontos is an interesting starting pitcher with decent stuff, particularly his secondary pitches, but he is a better fit in the National League.
The Brewers proved last year that they really did not need Weeks to have success, but what they did desperately need was starting pitching. This team essentially had one starting pitcher that wasn't significantly below average last season in Yovani Gallardo. It is not a stretch to say that Wang and Aceves could be their second and third best starters next season. Phil Coke had an alright season as a reliever this year, but he was mostly being used as a lefty specialist which does not make sense because his breaking pitch is his third best offering. Coke showed enough fastball and a good enough changeup to make some believe he could find a home in the back end of a rotation some day and in the NL Central the Brewers could do worse than to try him in the rotation. Kontos gives them another guy close to the majors who could contribute before long.
Cubs get: Brian Roberts
Orioles get: Starlin Castro, Andrew Cashner, Chris Carpenter
The Cubs have had a massive hole at both second base and at the leadoff spot in the lineup. In Roberts they get a player who is one of the best in the business at both. Despite the Cubs poor 2009 season, the pieces to win are there. Having Soriano and Ramirez around for the whole season, combined with Geovany Soto remembering how to play and Roberts would make their lineup formidable again, and there is nothing wrong with their pitching. None of the players they are giving up here could realistically help them this year, and considering the makeup of their team that has to be a primary concern. All three have good ceilings, but Chicago should be willing to sacrifice that for such a perfect solution as Roberts who is also under a reasonable contract for several years.
The Orioles are still a couple years away from being playoff contenders. They have most of their positions moving forward locked down but shortstop is a massive problem and Castro is one of the best shortstop prospects in the game. He could probably be ready by 2011 to do what Elvis Andrus did in 2009 and his bat has a lot more potential than Andrus. While the Orioles have many good young arms, you can never have too many and the extra incentive of getting back Cashner and Carpenter as well would make them willing to deal Roberts.
Mets get: Paul Konerko, A.J. Pierzynski
White Sox get: Ruben Tejada, Dillon Gee, Jefry Marte
The Mets want to be able to make a run at the NL East in 2010 (and rightfully so) but really do not have any really good options at 1B or C. However, they do have a couple of players who might be good options in 2011 in Ike Davis (if he learns to hit a curveball) and Josh Thole (if he learns how to catch), so a short-term commitment makes sense. In Konerko and Pierzynski they get two obvious upgrades for 2010 without blocking either of their prospects or making a serious monetary commitment. This is the perfect trade for them to help them make a run at this season and the none of the prospects they are giving up are among the best in the system either.
The White Sox are probably not going to be in the AL Central race in 2010 and should try to turn the expiring deals of Pierzynski and Konerko into something before they depart. Neither is a particularly great player anyway and both are starting to get old so they probably would not be part of the next competitive White Sox team anyway. While I would want different prospects back from the Mets, these three make sense based on their organizational philosophy. Tejada and Marte are high ceiling players with lots of tools and little polish. Both could be great MLB players or never make it at all, but those are the kinds of players they tend to seek out. Gee is more low profile, but given how good the White Sox have been at turning mediocre pitching prospects into big leaguers by teaching them a cutter, I like their chances at developing Gee better than the Mets'
Mets get: Roy Oswalt
Astros get: Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens
This is the first step of the necessary rebuilding the Astros need to realize is overdue. Oswalt has been the face of the franchise along with Berkman for awhile now, but he is past his prime and it is time to trade him before he loses value. The Mets desperately need some starting pitching and this trade lets them get a player to slot in behind Santana. He is a significant upgrade over all their other starting pitchers and they probably would be better off by also pursing John Lackey and that would give them a top 3 that could compete with any NL team. Oswalt would also benefit from moving to a much more pitcher friendly park, allowing him to throw his high fastball more often. Losing Mejia is the biggest risk here as he has potential front of the rotation stuff, however he is not a sure thing.
The Astros will lose their most reliable starter, but in exchange get half a their future rotation back. Niese is a major-league ready mid rotation starter and Mejia has the potential to be much more than that. He is a bit high risk because he is on the short side and his secondary pitches need work, but the quality of his arm is undeniable. Holt could make it as a starter but is more likely a power reliever. Either way he is another valuable arm for this team. The Astros don't really have a longterm middle infielder in their system and Havens looks like he could be a solid shortstop in the bigs.
Athletics get: Lance Berkman
Astros get: Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa
This one seems like a bit of a surprise I'm sure but it actually makes sense. The Athletics are going to be good next year and probably very good the year after that. Berkman is under contract for a not-ridiculous 14 million next season and there is a club option for 2011. The Athletics have a ton of great young pitchers and some solid hitters but they desperately need an offensive centerpiece, like the one Matt Holliday was supposed to be last year. This package they are giving up is full of high ceiling talent but only one player who was a key factor on the major league roster last year in Mazzaro. He is somewhat expendable because their rotation should be Anderson-Cahill-Braden-Gonzalez-X next year. They have plenty of other decent option to fill in that last spot at pretty much the same level Mazzaro would offer. This is a lot of talent to give up, but Berkman is a real impact player and they do not have a true first baseman in the system right now anyway.
This would be a bitter pill for the Astros to swallow, but they are not close to being competitive and should try to get some value back for Berkman. In exchange they get 4 guys who are essentially locks to contribute something at the major league level, and in most cases they have well above average potential. They also get two very intriguing player in Desme and the true gem of the deal Michael Ynoa. Desme is destroying the AFL right now and could easily be a much more well known prospect if he hadn't missed so much time with injuries the last couple of seasons. Ynoa is the ultimate boom or bust prospect. A 6'7 18-year-old with incredible stuff and polish for his age who scouts dream could be a star in the majors. Obviously he is really far away from the majors, at least three full years, but his upside is undeniable.
Giants get: Carlos Lee
Astros get: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin
For a team that is not competitive Carlos Lee's contract is a serious burden. Because of that the Astros should not expect that much of a haul for him, but the Giants should have the ability to take on most of that deal considering Edgar Renteria, Randy Johnson, Randy Winn, and Noah Lowry's contracts come off the books next year. The Giants desperately need offense. This allows them to acquire a very dangerous bat without giving up either of their two young stud starters or either of their two star prospects, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Lee is not much of a defender in left, but for an offense this anemic they should be willing to deal with that.
The Astros are freed from Lee's contract and get some interesting players back. Sanchez has a ton of stuff and every year gets closer to putting it all together. Lewis looks like he is probably a league average hitter with some defensive upside. Romo is already capable of being a solid setup man and Joaquin has the arm to close but not the polish yet. Considering this is mostly a salary dump, the Astros should be pleased to get this much back.
A minor aside
A lot of the deals I've made here center around two teams that have desperately needed to rebuild for awhile now but seem unwilling to do so, the Royals and Astros. In both cases I have only traded away players that would either be past their price, priced out of their market, or simply no longer on the team by the time either franchise is ready to be competitive again. And look at the players each is getting back in exchange for those parts:
Royals: Brandon Wood, Hank Conger, Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, Jordan Walden, Robinson Cano, Jesus Montero, Austin Jackson, Zach McAllister, Ian Kennedy, Brett Gardner
Astros: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis, Sergio Romo, Waldis Joaquin, Chris Carter, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Grant Desme, Vin Mazzaro, Michael Ynoa, Jon Niese, Jenry Mejia, Brad Holt, Reese Havens
In both cases that is a serious amount of both high end talent and high probability returns. I think in both cases these franchises would be much better long-term shape if they did these trades although I know they wouldn't happen because only the Marlins have ever shown the ability to truly tear down a roster and build it back up... and it worked for them.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
NFL Power Ranking Through Week 7
Superbowl or Bust Division
1. Indianapolis Colts 6-0 - The Colts are a juggernaut right now. They haven't had their second best receiver all season and it looks like their best may now miss some time, but it just does not matter. They haven't even run the ball that well yet, but Peyton looks better than ever and the defense has been spectacular. This team looks poised to coast into the playoffs and probably has not even peaked yet.
2. New Orleans Saints 6-0 - Steamrolling the Giants was impressive, but not as impressive as the comeback this week against Miami. They basically showed that they can totally take a half off and still beat a competent team with ease. The difference with the Saints this year is that they're running the ball better than ever and the defense has been good enough. The Saints have been playing like the Colts did in the early/middle part of this decade when they just overwhelmed with offense. But the Colts did not win the Superbowl until the defense starting carrying their wait, this might be that season for the Saints.
The Serious Contenders
3. Minnesota Vikings 6-1 - I know they lost this week but I watched a lot of that game, and they were the better team. Pittsburgh is very good, but Minnesota is better and sometimes the best team doesn't win. These guys can beat you in multiple ways on offense and although their defense has been O.K. I think they are capable of playing better. One worry is the loss of standout corner Antoine Winfield for the next month or so. He will be missed but Minnesota should have enough pieces to survive. Next week's game in Green Bay will be a good test of how good they are.
4. Denver Broncos 6-0 - Do I really trust them? No, not really, but it is impossible to ignore what that defense has done, and Orton is the right quarterback to have if the defense can really hold oppositions under 15 points a game. Over the next 5 weeks they four good teams and at the end of that stretch we should know for sure just how for real they are.
5. New York Giants 5-2 - The loss to New Orleans on the road was forgivable, the loss at home to Arizona is a bit more worrying and their schedule doesn't get much easier in the coming weeks. Still, there is a lot of talent here and the defense certainly hasn't played up to expectations just yet. As Manning continues to develop some chemistry with his young receivers, the offense should be a real asset.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2 - Pittsburgh has been shaky all season but they go into a needed bye week at 5-2. The timing couldn't be better as they face Denver and Cincinnati out of the gate. I think the week off will help them drastically and allow them to settle back into their normal game-plan. Mendenhall's emergence should stimulate the stagnant running game and their defense had one of their better efforts this week against Minnesota even though they were lucky to come out with a victory.
How Good Are We Really?
7. New England Patriots 5-2 - They're coming off two blowout wins but both were to but were to awful teams. Maybe those two games gave them the confidence they had been lacking and maybe Brady has truly righted himself completely and is about to go on another insane run, but it is impossible to know whether or not they were simply taking advantage of the circumstances. They have a bye this week, and then play the Saints and Colts in two of their next four games. If they come out of that four game stretch with a 3-1 or better they become serious Super Bowl contenders.
8. Cincinnati 5-2 - Coming off their most impressive win of the season, a blowout of Chicago, the Bengals are starting to have some passengers on the bandwagon. Palmer finally looks healthy, Ochocinco is happy and Benson seems to fit in nicely. The defense has also been consistently good. However, they are the Bengals and there is just such a long track record with not just this team, but this group of players as well, of failure that it is hard to trust them just yet. They get the Ravens and Steelers after this weeks bye, and after that they have three straight easy games. If they can split those first two, you are looking at a 9-3 team with a playoff berth all bug locked up.
Maybe If Everything Goes Juuuuuust Right
9. Dallas 4-2 - Look, for all the turmoil, they're sitting at 4-2 and just crushed a pretty good Atlanta team. Who among all active QB's has the highest yards per attempt average for their career? None other than Mr. Tony Romo. Oh, and who has the third highest passer rating for their career EVER? Tony Romo. Everyone needs to get off of his back, the guy is a really good player. The Cowboys can also run the ball really well and their defense has been great. This is a dangerous team now that Romo has found another target he trusts in Miles Austin.
10. Green Bay 4-2 - They have had an easy schedule, but I'm a bit Rodgers fan and the defense is good. Their achilles heel is their offense line. They have been completely unable to protect Rodgers or open up any holes for Ryan Grant thus far. I'm expecting them to figure it out at least a little bit from here on out, but it is certainly possible that isn't the case and Rodgers ends up needing to be carried off the field in the near future. They are at home against Minnesota this week in what should be one of the feature games of week 8.
11. Arizona Cardinals 4-2 - So many things broke right for Arizona last year, leading to an improbable Superbowl run. Some things remain the same, they still can't run the ball effectively and the passing game is great, although not quite as explosive as last year so far. However, their defensive effort this season has been a huge improvement, particularly against the run. Week 7's win against the Giants was a big surprise and now they're about to start a stretch of 5 straight games they should win. If they take care of business and build up momentum over that stretch, expect them to go well up this board.
12. Atlanta 4-2 - They're not running the ball effectively at all right now, but the passing game is strong as Ryan seems to have developed some early chemistry with Tony Gonzalez. They are a bit undersized on defense and got pushed around by both Dallas and New England, the only two good teams they have played so far. However, on the whole I think their offense is more likely to get better than worse at this point and there are not a ton of teams that can take full advantage of their defense shortcomings.
13. Houston 4-3 - Houston's passing game is one of the best in the league and while they have struggled to run the ball, that side of the offense has looked better lately. Sure their defense will occasionally lay an egg but they have a lot of weapons that teams have to deal with. Other than having to play the Colts twice before the season is over, they have a pretty easily schedule from here on out as well, and just like the Cardinals last year, no one will want to play them in the playoffs if they get hot.
14. Baltimore 3-3 - This is the most dynamic offense Baltimore has had since they became the Ravens. Flacco has improved drastically since last season and Rice is starting to look like a top running back. However, the defense is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, particularly against the pass. It's not a bad defense, but those days when teams dreaded playing Baltimore are over. The defense is still good enough to get this team into the playoffs, and possibly deep, but they have got to play better from here on out.
15. NY Jets 4-3 - It may not be a huge stretch to say they have lost their most important player on offense and defense to injury for the season when Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington went down in back to back weeks. They have an important game against Miami this week before heading into a needed bye. Every week more cracks in the dam seem to appear on defense and Sanchez clearly could use a week to catch his breath. The adjustments they make during that off-week will ultimately decide their fate, but they still have a good shot at making the playoffs.
16. San Diego 3-3 - The Chargers have dug themselves out of deep holes before but they have not beat a good team yet this year and with Denver pulling away making the playoffs is going to be a lot tougher this year. Norv Turner still looks like a borderline competent coach and LDT is not getting any younger. The passing attack remains extremely potent but is any other aspect of their game really above average at this point? They have essentially 4 free wins left on their schedule, but will need to take care of business in each of those games and probably go 3-3 in the harder games to make the playoffs.
17. Chicago 3-3 - The Bears blowout loss to Cincinnati exposed how flawed they are on both sides of the ball. The defense has really only had one good game, week 2 against the Steelers, and the offense has been shockingly inconsistent all year. Cutler is making far too many mistakes with the ball and Matt Forte has been stuck in neutral all year. The talent is there to improve drastically and maybe this past week will be a wake up call but right now the Bears chances at the post-season look grim.
18. Philadelphia 4-2 - The Eagles have beaten Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Washington. They lost to Oakland and got blown out by New Orleans. Essentially they have played one team that was not part of the dregs of the league and got blown out. The best thing they have going for them is that they are 4-2, but for the remainder of their schedule they only play two teams currently ranked below them on this list. If they continue to play at their current level, expect a massive nose-dive in the coming weeks, and Westbrook's injury is not going to help either.
Just Not that Good at All Really
19. San Francisco 3-3 - The Niners actually do a lot of things well and I am anxious to see if Alex Smith can turn himself into a worthwhile player after being completely forgotten about. The defense is slowly figuring it out and now with Crabtree signed there are some real weapons on offense to work with. This is definitely a team on the upswing, but they're not there yet. The only way they could really go on an extended run and be playoff contenders is if Smith suddenly plays like a Pro Bowler and that's a lofty expectation for someone who was considered one of the biggest busts in draft history a couple days ago.
20. Miami 2-4 - The Dolphins have really only had one cupcake game all season and have consistently been competitive all year. However, the biggest problem remains that the defense is completely unable to get off the field in key situations. As a result, they simply cannot hold the lead, even with their excellent power running game. Chad Henne has shown signs that he is a legit NFL quarterback, a really good sign for Miami's future, but he is not ready to start winning games on his own yet which they need because of that defense. Miami is a solid team but they just cannot go very far with such deficiencies on one side of the ball.
21. Seattle 2-4 - They are actually 2-1 with Hasselbeck healthy, but lost badly to the only good team they played in that stretch, and the chances of Hasselbeck staying healthy for the rest of the season are just not that good. The defense has played well, but the passing game just cannot seem to get going and the running game continues to be a mess ever since Shaun Alexander lost it. Seattle probably needs a complete roster overhaul but as long as they play in the terrible NFC West the playoffs always seem attainable so I can understand why they keep trying with temporary solutions.
22. Jacksonville 3-3 - This is another team with a solid record, but only one of their wins came against a solid team (Houston who was actually scuffling at the time) and just barely squeaked by the lowly Rams a week after getting blown out Seattle. They don't play good defense and David Garrard just looks scared throwing the football right now. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing well right now and Mike Sims-Walker is emerging as a real receiving threat but they need a lot of help if this team is going anywhere.
23. Carolina 2-4 - Carolina has been a very bad team because of only one reason really. Their play out of the quarterback position has been absolutely abysmal. I was never a Jake Del Homme fan even when he was having success because he just seem to be careless with his throws, but now it is finally coming back to hurt him. It is unfortunate because they have such a great running attack and decent enough defense, but the quarterback has just been killing them all-season. It is time for this franchise to move onto a new quarterback (apparently Matt Moore) and see if that can fix their problems.
24 Buffalo 3-4 - Another team that really is not that bad except they do not have an NFL quality quarterback. Trent Edwards plays like a deer in the headlights, refusing to take any risks with the ball and checking down to his running backs far too often. Amazingly he still has managed to throw 6 INTs in 5 anyway! Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long-term answer either but he is a clear upgrade at this point. Their defense is better than people realize and the running game is fine when they give the ball to Fred Jackson instead of the useless Marshawn Lynch so there are reasons for optimism at least.
Barely Able to be Called Football Teams
25 Detroit 1-5 - The Lions have two positive things going for them: Calvin Johnson is a really good football and someday Matt Stafford might be. Shockingly, that was all it took to be considered better than 7 other teams; such is the state of the NFL this year. To be fair, Kevin Smith actually seems like a capable running back as well, but the offensive line is still poor and the defense is just bad across the board, still a long way to go in Detroit.
26 Washington 2-5 - The soap opera continues for the league perennial underachiever. The defense is solid, but the offense has been so completely inept in every way it is hard to see them beating anybody. They may have two wins but have played by far the easiest schedule in the NFL and until they play the Raiders in week 14 I don't really see an opponent I would expect them to beat.
27 Kansas City 1-6 - Larry Johnson is the kind of player you tolerate when he is average 4.5 yards per carry and among the league leaders in touchdowns. When you are in the midst of a rebuilding project and he's bad mouthing the coach and organization on a National stage while average 2.7 YPC, it is time to send him packing. Jamaal Charles has the potential to be an explosive playmaker and the Matt Cassell/Dwayne Bowe combo has shown flashes as well. However this team remains a very long way from even being competitive.
28 Tennessee 0-6 - Quite a tumble for last year's Superbowl contenders and it is actually hard to figure out why. They had some tough games to start the season and then just seemingly completely quit. They have been so bad that it only took 6 games for the longest tenured coach in the league, Jeff Fisher, to go from coach of the year candidate to the hot seat. The defense is mostly to blame but the Titans' passing attack has been almost non-existent. It looks like Vince Young might get another chance soon, not sure that's a good thing.
29 Oakland 2-5 - I'm not sure there is anything nice to say about Oakland. They were lucky to beat Kansas City in week two and I still have no idea how they beat Philadelphia. In the last 5 weeks this team is 1-4 and the margins by which they lost those 4 games are: 20, 23, 36, 38; that is shockingly non-competitive. The defense has a couple of individuals who can play but they are surrounded by players who have almost no business being in the league and the offense is completely hopeless, particularly with Darren McFadden hurt.
30 Cleveland 1-6 - Starting QB Derek Anderson has a QB rating of 40.6 and Eric Mangini still thinks he is the best option they have, that's usually not a good sign. In fact their best player on offense, Mohamed Massaquoi is actually an undrafted rookie free agent. Their top two running backs have combined to average 3.5 YPC and their QB's are average 4.72 yards per pass attempt while being intercepted 11 times. That's an offense that is completely hopeless in every way.
31 Tampa Bay 0-7 - This once proud franchise has lost to Buffalo, Carolina and Washington among others. They can actually run the ball a little bit but because their passing game and defense are so horrible they are usually losing by double digits before the half and have to abandon the run. They appear to consider Josh Freeman their QB of the future but are seemingly reluctant to play him because getting experience in this environment could not possibly help. Tampa Bay was expected to be bad as they are obviously in a rebuilding phase, but I don't think anyone thought they would be this atrocious.
32 St. Louis 0-7 - Where to start? They have scored the fewest points in football (60) while allowing the most (211). They've actually run the ball fairly well as Jackson is over 600 yards, but has yet to reach the end zone. Their quarterbacks seem to spend more time dodging pass-rushers than throwing the ball and their defense spends more time watching defenders get past them than actually making tackles. Just to give you an idea of how bad their defense has been, the Rams have only attempted 12 punt returns this year in seven games. They go to Detroit this week in what is probably their best chance to win a game, good luck guys, you'll need it.
1. Indianapolis Colts 6-0 - The Colts are a juggernaut right now. They haven't had their second best receiver all season and it looks like their best may now miss some time, but it just does not matter. They haven't even run the ball that well yet, but Peyton looks better than ever and the defense has been spectacular. This team looks poised to coast into the playoffs and probably has not even peaked yet.
2. New Orleans Saints 6-0 - Steamrolling the Giants was impressive, but not as impressive as the comeback this week against Miami. They basically showed that they can totally take a half off and still beat a competent team with ease. The difference with the Saints this year is that they're running the ball better than ever and the defense has been good enough. The Saints have been playing like the Colts did in the early/middle part of this decade when they just overwhelmed with offense. But the Colts did not win the Superbowl until the defense starting carrying their wait, this might be that season for the Saints.
The Serious Contenders
3. Minnesota Vikings 6-1 - I know they lost this week but I watched a lot of that game, and they were the better team. Pittsburgh is very good, but Minnesota is better and sometimes the best team doesn't win. These guys can beat you in multiple ways on offense and although their defense has been O.K. I think they are capable of playing better. One worry is the loss of standout corner Antoine Winfield for the next month or so. He will be missed but Minnesota should have enough pieces to survive. Next week's game in Green Bay will be a good test of how good they are.
4. Denver Broncos 6-0 - Do I really trust them? No, not really, but it is impossible to ignore what that defense has done, and Orton is the right quarterback to have if the defense can really hold oppositions under 15 points a game. Over the next 5 weeks they four good teams and at the end of that stretch we should know for sure just how for real they are.
5. New York Giants 5-2 - The loss to New Orleans on the road was forgivable, the loss at home to Arizona is a bit more worrying and their schedule doesn't get much easier in the coming weeks. Still, there is a lot of talent here and the defense certainly hasn't played up to expectations just yet. As Manning continues to develop some chemistry with his young receivers, the offense should be a real asset.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers 5-2 - Pittsburgh has been shaky all season but they go into a needed bye week at 5-2. The timing couldn't be better as they face Denver and Cincinnati out of the gate. I think the week off will help them drastically and allow them to settle back into their normal game-plan. Mendenhall's emergence should stimulate the stagnant running game and their defense had one of their better efforts this week against Minnesota even though they were lucky to come out with a victory.
How Good Are We Really?
7. New England Patriots 5-2 - They're coming off two blowout wins but both were to but were to awful teams. Maybe those two games gave them the confidence they had been lacking and maybe Brady has truly righted himself completely and is about to go on another insane run, but it is impossible to know whether or not they were simply taking advantage of the circumstances. They have a bye this week, and then play the Saints and Colts in two of their next four games. If they come out of that four game stretch with a 3-1 or better they become serious Super Bowl contenders.
8. Cincinnati 5-2 - Coming off their most impressive win of the season, a blowout of Chicago, the Bengals are starting to have some passengers on the bandwagon. Palmer finally looks healthy, Ochocinco is happy and Benson seems to fit in nicely. The defense has also been consistently good. However, they are the Bengals and there is just such a long track record with not just this team, but this group of players as well, of failure that it is hard to trust them just yet. They get the Ravens and Steelers after this weeks bye, and after that they have three straight easy games. If they can split those first two, you are looking at a 9-3 team with a playoff berth all bug locked up.
Maybe If Everything Goes Juuuuuust Right
9. Dallas 4-2 - Look, for all the turmoil, they're sitting at 4-2 and just crushed a pretty good Atlanta team. Who among all active QB's has the highest yards per attempt average for their career? None other than Mr. Tony Romo. Oh, and who has the third highest passer rating for their career EVER? Tony Romo. Everyone needs to get off of his back, the guy is a really good player. The Cowboys can also run the ball really well and their defense has been great. This is a dangerous team now that Romo has found another target he trusts in Miles Austin.
10. Green Bay 4-2 - They have had an easy schedule, but I'm a bit Rodgers fan and the defense is good. Their achilles heel is their offense line. They have been completely unable to protect Rodgers or open up any holes for Ryan Grant thus far. I'm expecting them to figure it out at least a little bit from here on out, but it is certainly possible that isn't the case and Rodgers ends up needing to be carried off the field in the near future. They are at home against Minnesota this week in what should be one of the feature games of week 8.
11. Arizona Cardinals 4-2 - So many things broke right for Arizona last year, leading to an improbable Superbowl run. Some things remain the same, they still can't run the ball effectively and the passing game is great, although not quite as explosive as last year so far. However, their defensive effort this season has been a huge improvement, particularly against the run. Week 7's win against the Giants was a big surprise and now they're about to start a stretch of 5 straight games they should win. If they take care of business and build up momentum over that stretch, expect them to go well up this board.
12. Atlanta 4-2 - They're not running the ball effectively at all right now, but the passing game is strong as Ryan seems to have developed some early chemistry with Tony Gonzalez. They are a bit undersized on defense and got pushed around by both Dallas and New England, the only two good teams they have played so far. However, on the whole I think their offense is more likely to get better than worse at this point and there are not a ton of teams that can take full advantage of their defense shortcomings.
13. Houston 4-3 - Houston's passing game is one of the best in the league and while they have struggled to run the ball, that side of the offense has looked better lately. Sure their defense will occasionally lay an egg but they have a lot of weapons that teams have to deal with. Other than having to play the Colts twice before the season is over, they have a pretty easily schedule from here on out as well, and just like the Cardinals last year, no one will want to play them in the playoffs if they get hot.
14. Baltimore 3-3 - This is the most dynamic offense Baltimore has had since they became the Ravens. Flacco has improved drastically since last season and Rice is starting to look like a top running back. However, the defense is starting to get a bit long in the tooth, particularly against the pass. It's not a bad defense, but those days when teams dreaded playing Baltimore are over. The defense is still good enough to get this team into the playoffs, and possibly deep, but they have got to play better from here on out.
15. NY Jets 4-3 - It may not be a huge stretch to say they have lost their most important player on offense and defense to injury for the season when Kris Jenkins and Leon Washington went down in back to back weeks. They have an important game against Miami this week before heading into a needed bye. Every week more cracks in the dam seem to appear on defense and Sanchez clearly could use a week to catch his breath. The adjustments they make during that off-week will ultimately decide their fate, but they still have a good shot at making the playoffs.
16. San Diego 3-3 - The Chargers have dug themselves out of deep holes before but they have not beat a good team yet this year and with Denver pulling away making the playoffs is going to be a lot tougher this year. Norv Turner still looks like a borderline competent coach and LDT is not getting any younger. The passing attack remains extremely potent but is any other aspect of their game really above average at this point? They have essentially 4 free wins left on their schedule, but will need to take care of business in each of those games and probably go 3-3 in the harder games to make the playoffs.
17. Chicago 3-3 - The Bears blowout loss to Cincinnati exposed how flawed they are on both sides of the ball. The defense has really only had one good game, week 2 against the Steelers, and the offense has been shockingly inconsistent all year. Cutler is making far too many mistakes with the ball and Matt Forte has been stuck in neutral all year. The talent is there to improve drastically and maybe this past week will be a wake up call but right now the Bears chances at the post-season look grim.
18. Philadelphia 4-2 - The Eagles have beaten Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Washington. They lost to Oakland and got blown out by New Orleans. Essentially they have played one team that was not part of the dregs of the league and got blown out. The best thing they have going for them is that they are 4-2, but for the remainder of their schedule they only play two teams currently ranked below them on this list. If they continue to play at their current level, expect a massive nose-dive in the coming weeks, and Westbrook's injury is not going to help either.
Just Not that Good at All Really
19. San Francisco 3-3 - The Niners actually do a lot of things well and I am anxious to see if Alex Smith can turn himself into a worthwhile player after being completely forgotten about. The defense is slowly figuring it out and now with Crabtree signed there are some real weapons on offense to work with. This is definitely a team on the upswing, but they're not there yet. The only way they could really go on an extended run and be playoff contenders is if Smith suddenly plays like a Pro Bowler and that's a lofty expectation for someone who was considered one of the biggest busts in draft history a couple days ago.
20. Miami 2-4 - The Dolphins have really only had one cupcake game all season and have consistently been competitive all year. However, the biggest problem remains that the defense is completely unable to get off the field in key situations. As a result, they simply cannot hold the lead, even with their excellent power running game. Chad Henne has shown signs that he is a legit NFL quarterback, a really good sign for Miami's future, but he is not ready to start winning games on his own yet which they need because of that defense. Miami is a solid team but they just cannot go very far with such deficiencies on one side of the ball.
21. Seattle 2-4 - They are actually 2-1 with Hasselbeck healthy, but lost badly to the only good team they played in that stretch, and the chances of Hasselbeck staying healthy for the rest of the season are just not that good. The defense has played well, but the passing game just cannot seem to get going and the running game continues to be a mess ever since Shaun Alexander lost it. Seattle probably needs a complete roster overhaul but as long as they play in the terrible NFC West the playoffs always seem attainable so I can understand why they keep trying with temporary solutions.
22. Jacksonville 3-3 - This is another team with a solid record, but only one of their wins came against a solid team (Houston who was actually scuffling at the time) and just barely squeaked by the lowly Rams a week after getting blown out Seattle. They don't play good defense and David Garrard just looks scared throwing the football right now. Maurice Jones-Drew is playing well right now and Mike Sims-Walker is emerging as a real receiving threat but they need a lot of help if this team is going anywhere.
23. Carolina 2-4 - Carolina has been a very bad team because of only one reason really. Their play out of the quarterback position has been absolutely abysmal. I was never a Jake Del Homme fan even when he was having success because he just seem to be careless with his throws, but now it is finally coming back to hurt him. It is unfortunate because they have such a great running attack and decent enough defense, but the quarterback has just been killing them all-season. It is time for this franchise to move onto a new quarterback (apparently Matt Moore) and see if that can fix their problems.
24 Buffalo 3-4 - Another team that really is not that bad except they do not have an NFL quality quarterback. Trent Edwards plays like a deer in the headlights, refusing to take any risks with the ball and checking down to his running backs far too often. Amazingly he still has managed to throw 6 INTs in 5 anyway! Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long-term answer either but he is a clear upgrade at this point. Their defense is better than people realize and the running game is fine when they give the ball to Fred Jackson instead of the useless Marshawn Lynch so there are reasons for optimism at least.
Barely Able to be Called Football Teams
25 Detroit 1-5 - The Lions have two positive things going for them: Calvin Johnson is a really good football and someday Matt Stafford might be. Shockingly, that was all it took to be considered better than 7 other teams; such is the state of the NFL this year. To be fair, Kevin Smith actually seems like a capable running back as well, but the offensive line is still poor and the defense is just bad across the board, still a long way to go in Detroit.
26 Washington 2-5 - The soap opera continues for the league perennial underachiever. The defense is solid, but the offense has been so completely inept in every way it is hard to see them beating anybody. They may have two wins but have played by far the easiest schedule in the NFL and until they play the Raiders in week 14 I don't really see an opponent I would expect them to beat.
27 Kansas City 1-6 - Larry Johnson is the kind of player you tolerate when he is average 4.5 yards per carry and among the league leaders in touchdowns. When you are in the midst of a rebuilding project and he's bad mouthing the coach and organization on a National stage while average 2.7 YPC, it is time to send him packing. Jamaal Charles has the potential to be an explosive playmaker and the Matt Cassell/Dwayne Bowe combo has shown flashes as well. However this team remains a very long way from even being competitive.
28 Tennessee 0-6 - Quite a tumble for last year's Superbowl contenders and it is actually hard to figure out why. They had some tough games to start the season and then just seemingly completely quit. They have been so bad that it only took 6 games for the longest tenured coach in the league, Jeff Fisher, to go from coach of the year candidate to the hot seat. The defense is mostly to blame but the Titans' passing attack has been almost non-existent. It looks like Vince Young might get another chance soon, not sure that's a good thing.
29 Oakland 2-5 - I'm not sure there is anything nice to say about Oakland. They were lucky to beat Kansas City in week two and I still have no idea how they beat Philadelphia. In the last 5 weeks this team is 1-4 and the margins by which they lost those 4 games are: 20, 23, 36, 38; that is shockingly non-competitive. The defense has a couple of individuals who can play but they are surrounded by players who have almost no business being in the league and the offense is completely hopeless, particularly with Darren McFadden hurt.
30 Cleveland 1-6 - Starting QB Derek Anderson has a QB rating of 40.6 and Eric Mangini still thinks he is the best option they have, that's usually not a good sign. In fact their best player on offense, Mohamed Massaquoi is actually an undrafted rookie free agent. Their top two running backs have combined to average 3.5 YPC and their QB's are average 4.72 yards per pass attempt while being intercepted 11 times. That's an offense that is completely hopeless in every way.
31 Tampa Bay 0-7 - This once proud franchise has lost to Buffalo, Carolina and Washington among others. They can actually run the ball a little bit but because their passing game and defense are so horrible they are usually losing by double digits before the half and have to abandon the run. They appear to consider Josh Freeman their QB of the future but are seemingly reluctant to play him because getting experience in this environment could not possibly help. Tampa Bay was expected to be bad as they are obviously in a rebuilding phase, but I don't think anyone thought they would be this atrocious.
32 St. Louis 0-7 - Where to start? They have scored the fewest points in football (60) while allowing the most (211). They've actually run the ball fairly well as Jackson is over 600 yards, but has yet to reach the end zone. Their quarterbacks seem to spend more time dodging pass-rushers than throwing the ball and their defense spends more time watching defenders get past them than actually making tackles. Just to give you an idea of how bad their defense has been, the Rams have only attempted 12 punt returns this year in seven games. They go to Detroit this week in what is probably their best chance to win a game, good luck guys, you'll need it.
Friday, October 23, 2009
2009-2010 NBA Projected Standings
Not my favorite sport, but why not throw out some thoughts?
Eastern Conference
1. Orlando 63-19: I actually think Carter is an upgrade on Turkoglu, plus a full season from Nelson couldn't hurt either.
2. Cleveland 58-24: Jamario Moon may be just as important an addition as Shaq, definitely James' deepest supporting cast ever.
3. Boston 56-26: Don't really trust Garnett's health or Wallace head, and everyone else is one year older, but still just so much talent.
4. Chicago 47-35: Salmons and Miller seem like real good fits, and there's plenty of guys to pick up the slack left by Gordon's departure.
5. Miami 45-37: But if Wade gets hurt they are a lottery team. If O'Neal can contribute much of anything they'll be dangerous.
6. Atlanta 44-38: There's enough talent on this roster to win 50, but they've under achieved the last couple of years.
7. Philadelphia 43-39: Remember last year when everyone thought Philly would be good? It happens this year with a healthy Brand.
8. Toronto 40-42: Another team that seems too talented to not be better, but last year is hard too forget.
9. Washington 39-43: I actually expect a good year from Arenas, but never believed the big 3 in D.C. was that special, and they all have long injury histories.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 36-46: Diaw seems like a good fit, but this is a shallow roster with a couple big injury risks.
11. Detroit Pistons 35-47: Neither Gordon nor Villanueva made much sense to me, Detroit probably needs to tear it down and rebuild.
12. New York 32-50: They're just biding their time until the 2010 free agents hit the market.
13. New Jersey 28-54: Lopez and Harris are a nice inside outside combo, but Yi might be their 3rd best player... yikes.
14. Indiana 23-59: This team should just be called Danny Granger and the forgettables.
15. Milwaukee 18-64: There really is not a whole lot of reason for optimism now or in Milwaukee's future.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio 61-21: I was on the bandwagon when they got Jefferson and McDyess, then moved to the front row when they drafted Blair.
2. LA Lakers 58-24: There's a lot of personalities on this roster, but also far too much talent not to have a great season.
3. Utah 50-32: Big dropoff after the top 2, but a healthy Boozer should allow Utah to coast into the playoffs.
4. New Orleans 46-36: Okafor should contribute more than Chandler, but the subtle loss of Butler and Pargo the year before has hurt them more than most realize.
5. Denver 45-37: A great season last year, but I see them coming back to Earth just a little bit, don't expect full seasons from Nene and Martin again.
6. Dallas 43-39: Don't really think all the parts fit together particularly well here but again, enough talent that it shouldn't matter.
6. Houston 43-39: No Yao for the season and you can't expect more than 50 games from McGrady, but Houston always seems to find a way.
8. Portland 42-40: Hated the Miller signing, but I'm expecting a better year from Oden and this is still probably the deepest roster in basketball.
8. LA Clippers 42-40: +Griffin, - Randolph. That's such a huge difference almost nothing else matters, but expect Thornton and Gordon to continue to improve as well.
10. Phoenix 41-41: Cranky Stoudemire coming off an injury, aging Nash and Hill... they're really going to have to fight to get in the playoffs this year.
11. Golden State 38-44: This team is in desperate need of addition by subtraction, find a way to get rid of Jackson, Maggette, Nelson, Cohan and let the kids blossom.
12. Oklahoma City 37-45: Bound to be one of the most exciting teams this year, I think they're still a year away from being taken seriously.
13. Memphis 31-51: I just feel bad for Lionel Hollings, this is not going to be an easy year for him.
14. Minnesota 27-55: I think the Jefferson/Love frontcourt is going to be great but I'm not sold at all on the guards.
15. Sacramento 19-63: Didn't think Evans was the right pick, they now have 3 combo guards and their best player starts at the two already... curious to see if Hawes continues to improve.
Eastern Conference
1. Orlando 63-19: I actually think Carter is an upgrade on Turkoglu, plus a full season from Nelson couldn't hurt either.
2. Cleveland 58-24: Jamario Moon may be just as important an addition as Shaq, definitely James' deepest supporting cast ever.
3. Boston 56-26: Don't really trust Garnett's health or Wallace head, and everyone else is one year older, but still just so much talent.
4. Chicago 47-35: Salmons and Miller seem like real good fits, and there's plenty of guys to pick up the slack left by Gordon's departure.
5. Miami 45-37: But if Wade gets hurt they are a lottery team. If O'Neal can contribute much of anything they'll be dangerous.
6. Atlanta 44-38: There's enough talent on this roster to win 50, but they've under achieved the last couple of years.
7. Philadelphia 43-39: Remember last year when everyone thought Philly would be good? It happens this year with a healthy Brand.
8. Toronto 40-42: Another team that seems too talented to not be better, but last year is hard too forget.
9. Washington 39-43: I actually expect a good year from Arenas, but never believed the big 3 in D.C. was that special, and they all have long injury histories.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 36-46: Diaw seems like a good fit, but this is a shallow roster with a couple big injury risks.
11. Detroit Pistons 35-47: Neither Gordon nor Villanueva made much sense to me, Detroit probably needs to tear it down and rebuild.
12. New York 32-50: They're just biding their time until the 2010 free agents hit the market.
13. New Jersey 28-54: Lopez and Harris are a nice inside outside combo, but Yi might be their 3rd best player... yikes.
14. Indiana 23-59: This team should just be called Danny Granger and the forgettables.
15. Milwaukee 18-64: There really is not a whole lot of reason for optimism now or in Milwaukee's future.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio 61-21: I was on the bandwagon when they got Jefferson and McDyess, then moved to the front row when they drafted Blair.
2. LA Lakers 58-24: There's a lot of personalities on this roster, but also far too much talent not to have a great season.
3. Utah 50-32: Big dropoff after the top 2, but a healthy Boozer should allow Utah to coast into the playoffs.
4. New Orleans 46-36: Okafor should contribute more than Chandler, but the subtle loss of Butler and Pargo the year before has hurt them more than most realize.
5. Denver 45-37: A great season last year, but I see them coming back to Earth just a little bit, don't expect full seasons from Nene and Martin again.
6. Dallas 43-39: Don't really think all the parts fit together particularly well here but again, enough talent that it shouldn't matter.
6. Houston 43-39: No Yao for the season and you can't expect more than 50 games from McGrady, but Houston always seems to find a way.
8. Portland 42-40: Hated the Miller signing, but I'm expecting a better year from Oden and this is still probably the deepest roster in basketball.
8. LA Clippers 42-40: +Griffin, - Randolph. That's such a huge difference almost nothing else matters, but expect Thornton and Gordon to continue to improve as well.
10. Phoenix 41-41: Cranky Stoudemire coming off an injury, aging Nash and Hill... they're really going to have to fight to get in the playoffs this year.
11. Golden State 38-44: This team is in desperate need of addition by subtraction, find a way to get rid of Jackson, Maggette, Nelson, Cohan and let the kids blossom.
12. Oklahoma City 37-45: Bound to be one of the most exciting teams this year, I think they're still a year away from being taken seriously.
13. Memphis 31-51: I just feel bad for Lionel Hollings, this is not going to be an easy year for him.
14. Minnesota 27-55: I think the Jefferson/Love frontcourt is going to be great but I'm not sold at all on the guards.
15. Sacramento 19-63: Didn't think Evans was the right pick, they now have 3 combo guards and their best player starts at the two already... curious to see if Hawes continues to improve.
Friday, October 16, 2009
The All-1800s Baseball Team
I had so much fun doing the all-time MLB player draft I just decided I could not stop. There were several groups of players that were neglected from the draft simply because accurate and meaningful statistics just do not exist for them. The first group was negro-league players, but I've already made a team comprised of the best they had to offer in a previous post. The second group was players who starred before 1900. I've decided to to rectify the omission of that second group now. So, here is my all-time 1800s team.
C - Buck Ewing
Most of the information we still have about Ewing talks about his superb defensive abilities, particularly his throwing arm. It's hard see just how much credit we can put into those reports, but Ewing was one of the first 19th century players put in the Hall of Fame, and his hitting stats were superb for anyone, not just a catcher. Ewing is one of the most obvious choices on this team, he really seems to stand head and shoulders above all his contemporaries.
1B - Cap Anson
One of the least likable guys baseball history, but maybe the most important player ever. Anson built one of the first truly great teams in baseball history, the 1870s-80s Chicago Cubs. Anson was by far the best at this time of identifying and acquiring talent. He forced the other teams in the league to improve or get run over. Even without that influence, he would win this roster spot purely on his hitting abilities. He's still among the all-time leaders in hits, runs and RBI even though for most of his career teams didn't play 100 games in a season.
2B - Hardy Richardson
I'm just barely taking Richardson over Bid Mcphee and Cupid Childs. All three have very good defensive reputations and in my opinion, Richardson was the best hitter. Childs' numbers look more impressive but he played in a much friendlier environment. Richardson played most of his career for a pretty terrible Buffalo franchise but found success later on when he moved to Detroit, posting the league's best record in 1887. In the 1800s second base was more of an offensive position, sort of like third base is now, and Richardson was an excellent hitter with power.
3B - John McGraw
McGraw is now mostly known as being one of the most successful managers ever, but he was also a spectacular player. There are very few third baseman who put up impressive offensive numbers from this era, making McGraw's 334/466/410 slash line pop out even more. After turning 20, the lowest OBP he ever posted as .422. He had almost no power (even for his era) but was a fine baserunner, stealing over 400 bags in his career. I also think that because he proved to be such a great manager, having his presence on the bench would go a long way to help this team.
SS - Hughie Jennings
I'm taking Jennings over Jack Glasscock and George Davis because he has the best defensive reputation of the group and a lot Davis' hitting value came after 1900. Jennings was a colorful character who was well liked by his teammates and has the odd distinction of being hit by more pitches than anyone else in history. All of the 1800s shortstops were immediately overshadowed because Honus Wagner came along a few years later and pretty much blew all of them out of the water, but Jennings had a run of about 5 seasons where he was one of the most valuable players in the league.
LF - Ed Delahanty
He played a little bit after 1900, but the next best option here, Jesse Burkett played even more after the turn of the century, and Jim O'Rourke was never the dominant force Big Ed was. Delahanty had four brothers who played in the majors but none of them could hold a candle to Ed. Delahanty was one of the league's first legitimate power threats, leading the league in slugging five times, and breaking 100 RBI seven times.
CF - Billy Hamilton
Not many men were born to be leadoff hitters, but Hamilton was. A lightning fast player who once averaged 147 runs scored per season over a nine year stretch. He had five seasons of over 95 steals and five seasons with 100+ walks. He also had a career batting average of .344. There is very little literature written about Hamilton, which is curious considering how phenomenal his numbers are. My guess is that Hamilton was probably a very quiet person and able to hide in relative anonymity in what was at the time a sea of almost cartoon-character like personalities.
RF - King Kelly
I am not even going to attempt to summarize Kelly as a man or a player because he was so beloved in his time that it would be difficult to believe anything written about him. Assigning him to right field is the best guess anyone can come up with because he played every position on the diamond, often moving around during games to wherever he pleased. Although most of the imagery we have of him now is that of a chain-smoker who despite being the highest paid player in the league was poor when he died at the age of 36 because he spent every dime he had on women, his wardrobe and whiskey. Even with all of the insanity that surrounded Kelly the man, he actually did manage to have a very successful playing career. He led the league in runs scored several times and even though there are no stolen base records for most of his career he was regarded as the best base runner of his era. I think of Kelly the ball player as a super-utility type player who just happened to be one of the best hitters in the league.
DH - Dan Brouthers
I know there was no DH back then but Brouthers has to be on this team somewhere and unfortunately for him he played the same position as Anson. Brouthers was a giant man by the standards of the day, standing well over six feet and weighing over 200 pounds. Brouthers led the league in OPS for six straight seasons during the 1880s and finished his career with a 170 OPS+. If Brouthers was not the best pure hitter of the 1800s he was easily in the top three.
P - Kid Nichols
Although he pitched into the 1900s, Nichols' best years came in the 1890s. From 1890-1899 Nichols' average year was 30-15, 400 IP, 2.97. Basically, you could split those numbers in half and have two great seasons. A very small man with a whip for an arm, Nichols was one of the hardest throwers around and generally only through a fastball. It is perhaps because of this that he was able to lead the league in total batters face seven times.
P - Charley Radbourn
Old Hoss had probably the greatest single season ever by a baseball player in 1884 when he went 59-12 while leading the league with a 1.38 ERA over 678 innings while striking out 441 batters. While it was the only time he led the league in ERA, he did manage to rack up 309 wins in his career.
P - Tim Keefe
Most sources credit Keefe with inventing the changeup. Meaning a pitch where the pitcher uses the same arm speed but the ball comes out slower because of a change in grip. It was believed he came up with the pitch before the 1883 season and doing so turned him into one of the best pitchers in the league. Keefe did not become a regular until he was 24 (late for the time period) but cracked 300 wins before 10 years passed anyway.
P - John Clarkson
Clarkson's career really only spanned 10 seasons but he finished with a 324-178 record. He led the league in wins and strikeouts three times each, and innings four times. Early in his career Clarkson's walk numbers were exceptionally low but at 26 he started to mess around with secondary pitches and ended up among the league leaders in walks every season for the rest of his career.
P - Al Spalding
Spalding career was short by any standard, only six seasons really. But he went 253-65 in that career, the greatest winning percentage ever. While wins don't often mean much he did lead the league in ERA twice. In the 1870s the pitcher's job was not to get the batter out, but merely throw the ball over the plate so that batter could hit it onto the field. As a result, Spalding had a grand total of 142 strikeouts in a near 3000 inning career. Spalding was not one of the five best pitchers of the 1800s because he was playing a different game altogether, but his accomplishments are so unique I feel like he should be mentioned. Clearly he was doing something better than everyone else at the time, maybe he threw harder or more accurately. Whatever it was, it was significant.
With my apologies to Pud Galvin, Amos Rusie, Silver King, Tommy Bond, Bob Caruthers and Tony Mullane. Pitchers from this era really stand out because they threw so many innings. I've chosen the five I personally found the most impressive but a really good case could be made for any of these guys.
C - Buck Ewing
Most of the information we still have about Ewing talks about his superb defensive abilities, particularly his throwing arm. It's hard see just how much credit we can put into those reports, but Ewing was one of the first 19th century players put in the Hall of Fame, and his hitting stats were superb for anyone, not just a catcher. Ewing is one of the most obvious choices on this team, he really seems to stand head and shoulders above all his contemporaries.
1B - Cap Anson
One of the least likable guys baseball history, but maybe the most important player ever. Anson built one of the first truly great teams in baseball history, the 1870s-80s Chicago Cubs. Anson was by far the best at this time of identifying and acquiring talent. He forced the other teams in the league to improve or get run over. Even without that influence, he would win this roster spot purely on his hitting abilities. He's still among the all-time leaders in hits, runs and RBI even though for most of his career teams didn't play 100 games in a season.
2B - Hardy Richardson
I'm just barely taking Richardson over Bid Mcphee and Cupid Childs. All three have very good defensive reputations and in my opinion, Richardson was the best hitter. Childs' numbers look more impressive but he played in a much friendlier environment. Richardson played most of his career for a pretty terrible Buffalo franchise but found success later on when he moved to Detroit, posting the league's best record in 1887. In the 1800s second base was more of an offensive position, sort of like third base is now, and Richardson was an excellent hitter with power.
3B - John McGraw
McGraw is now mostly known as being one of the most successful managers ever, but he was also a spectacular player. There are very few third baseman who put up impressive offensive numbers from this era, making McGraw's 334/466/410 slash line pop out even more. After turning 20, the lowest OBP he ever posted as .422. He had almost no power (even for his era) but was a fine baserunner, stealing over 400 bags in his career. I also think that because he proved to be such a great manager, having his presence on the bench would go a long way to help this team.
SS - Hughie Jennings
I'm taking Jennings over Jack Glasscock and George Davis because he has the best defensive reputation of the group and a lot Davis' hitting value came after 1900. Jennings was a colorful character who was well liked by his teammates and has the odd distinction of being hit by more pitches than anyone else in history. All of the 1800s shortstops were immediately overshadowed because Honus Wagner came along a few years later and pretty much blew all of them out of the water, but Jennings had a run of about 5 seasons where he was one of the most valuable players in the league.
LF - Ed Delahanty
He played a little bit after 1900, but the next best option here, Jesse Burkett played even more after the turn of the century, and Jim O'Rourke was never the dominant force Big Ed was. Delahanty had four brothers who played in the majors but none of them could hold a candle to Ed. Delahanty was one of the league's first legitimate power threats, leading the league in slugging five times, and breaking 100 RBI seven times.
CF - Billy Hamilton
Not many men were born to be leadoff hitters, but Hamilton was. A lightning fast player who once averaged 147 runs scored per season over a nine year stretch. He had five seasons of over 95 steals and five seasons with 100+ walks. He also had a career batting average of .344. There is very little literature written about Hamilton, which is curious considering how phenomenal his numbers are. My guess is that Hamilton was probably a very quiet person and able to hide in relative anonymity in what was at the time a sea of almost cartoon-character like personalities.
RF - King Kelly
I am not even going to attempt to summarize Kelly as a man or a player because he was so beloved in his time that it would be difficult to believe anything written about him. Assigning him to right field is the best guess anyone can come up with because he played every position on the diamond, often moving around during games to wherever he pleased. Although most of the imagery we have of him now is that of a chain-smoker who despite being the highest paid player in the league was poor when he died at the age of 36 because he spent every dime he had on women, his wardrobe and whiskey. Even with all of the insanity that surrounded Kelly the man, he actually did manage to have a very successful playing career. He led the league in runs scored several times and even though there are no stolen base records for most of his career he was regarded as the best base runner of his era. I think of Kelly the ball player as a super-utility type player who just happened to be one of the best hitters in the league.
DH - Dan Brouthers
I know there was no DH back then but Brouthers has to be on this team somewhere and unfortunately for him he played the same position as Anson. Brouthers was a giant man by the standards of the day, standing well over six feet and weighing over 200 pounds. Brouthers led the league in OPS for six straight seasons during the 1880s and finished his career with a 170 OPS+. If Brouthers was not the best pure hitter of the 1800s he was easily in the top three.
P - Kid Nichols
Although he pitched into the 1900s, Nichols' best years came in the 1890s. From 1890-1899 Nichols' average year was 30-15, 400 IP, 2.97. Basically, you could split those numbers in half and have two great seasons. A very small man with a whip for an arm, Nichols was one of the hardest throwers around and generally only through a fastball. It is perhaps because of this that he was able to lead the league in total batters face seven times.
P - Charley Radbourn
Old Hoss had probably the greatest single season ever by a baseball player in 1884 when he went 59-12 while leading the league with a 1.38 ERA over 678 innings while striking out 441 batters. While it was the only time he led the league in ERA, he did manage to rack up 309 wins in his career.
P - Tim Keefe
Most sources credit Keefe with inventing the changeup. Meaning a pitch where the pitcher uses the same arm speed but the ball comes out slower because of a change in grip. It was believed he came up with the pitch before the 1883 season and doing so turned him into one of the best pitchers in the league. Keefe did not become a regular until he was 24 (late for the time period) but cracked 300 wins before 10 years passed anyway.
P - John Clarkson
Clarkson's career really only spanned 10 seasons but he finished with a 324-178 record. He led the league in wins and strikeouts three times each, and innings four times. Early in his career Clarkson's walk numbers were exceptionally low but at 26 he started to mess around with secondary pitches and ended up among the league leaders in walks every season for the rest of his career.
P - Al Spalding
Spalding career was short by any standard, only six seasons really. But he went 253-65 in that career, the greatest winning percentage ever. While wins don't often mean much he did lead the league in ERA twice. In the 1870s the pitcher's job was not to get the batter out, but merely throw the ball over the plate so that batter could hit it onto the field. As a result, Spalding had a grand total of 142 strikeouts in a near 3000 inning career. Spalding was not one of the five best pitchers of the 1800s because he was playing a different game altogether, but his accomplishments are so unique I feel like he should be mentioned. Clearly he was doing something better than everyone else at the time, maybe he threw harder or more accurately. Whatever it was, it was significant.
With my apologies to Pud Galvin, Amos Rusie, Silver King, Tommy Bond, Bob Caruthers and Tony Mullane. Pitchers from this era really stand out because they threw so many innings. I've chosen the five I personally found the most impressive but a really good case could be made for any of these guys.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part X: Who did we miss?
Just for fun I decided to try and put together the best possible team I from all of the players that nobody drafted. I was actually surprised how good the team turned out and after running it through the same analysis, it scored a 140.9; 140.9 would have been last if compared what wended up with, but not by that much.
Offense
The lineup had some easy choices but also a few I had to dig a bit for. The bench also came together fairly quickly although there are still plenty of great players still out there.
Starters
C Joe Torre - 131.6: Torre could really hit and had a pretty long career. He was not a standout with the glove at all but his bat was enough to carry his ACV over 130.
1B Jim Thome 146.5: Someone who probably should have been drafted, Thome is simply one of the best power hitters ever. He also has maintained his level of effectiveness for a very long time and his phenomenal career walk rate only furthers his value.
2B Charlie Gehringer 137.1: A pretty bad omission by us, Gehringer could really hit and wasn't too bad with the glove either.
3B Ron Santo 134.2: If I had control over hall of fame inductions Santo would be one of the first guys I put in. I actually expected him to rate higher. He has power, patience and was an asset in the field. A relatively short career prevents him from being among the all-time great 3B's.
SS Joe Cronin 130.8: An excellent glove man who could hit too, got derailed briefly mid career and that hurt his value but he was still a great player.
LF Gary Sheffield 148.8: The single biggest swing and miss by our group collectively. Maybe once Sheffield retires people will forget that he's a pain and realize how extraordinary of a player he was.
CF Larry Doby 137.2: The first American Leaguer to break the color barrier, just like Robinson, Doby is probably underrated as a player. He didn't have a very long career either, but did everything well.
RF Paul Waner 144.7: Big Poison was another serious miss on our parts. Waner had the misfortune of starting his career just as the home run was coming into favor. If he'd played 20 years earlier he might be considered among the best ever. Waner was a doubles machine and an asset in the field.
DH Harry Heilman 144.0 (145.0): Heilman led the league in batting four times and had plenty of power too. He was a natural with the bat but never at home in the field and that is why he is the DH instead of Thome.
Bench
C Gene Tenace 120.6: Tenace has probably the largest disparity between batting average and walk rate I know of. He's similar to Torre in that he is a hitter first and a catcher second but overall I still think he makes the most sense here.
IF Todd Helton 135.5: There might be better options here but I like Helton's combo of hitting and fielding. The numbers have been inflated by the park a bit but that doesn't change the fact that he's been a great player.
OF Larry Walker 139.8: Defense, speed, power, patience, throwing arm, he had them all.
UTIL Frankie Frish 129.3: A great baserunner and very good defender with enough power to keep hitters honest. Frisch was a very good all-around player who has been forgotten for the most part by casual fans.
UTIL Jim Edmonds 137.6: A spectacular defender, the best of this generation except for perhaps Andruw Jones in his prime. Also had a great eye and plenty of pop.
Pitching
We actually did a really good job drafting starting pitchers. No one really fell through the cracks for the most part, and the bullpen was pretty much more of the same.
SP Kevin Brown 115.6
SP Stan Coveleski 116.6
SP Red Faber 115.5
SP Ted Lyons 115.0
SP Eppa Rixey 113.5
A lot of generations and pitching styles covered here. I'm taking Rixey over Vic Willis to give myself a left-handed starter. All of these guys were essentially very good pitchers who had fairly long careers. None of them really stand out in any particular way, but that is not surprising since in the draft we took pretty much everyone who fit that mold.
RP Harry Brecheen 134.7
RP Troy Percival 121.7
RP John Hiller 129.3
RP John Wetteland 124.5
RP Tom Henke 129.5
RP Francisco Rodriguez 130.0
Brecheen is the only one of these guys who was mostly a starter, and he was a good one. His career got off to a late start, partially due to the war and as a result he was a regular until after his 28th birthday. Most of the rest of these guys were right-handed fireball closers who were dominant for at least a few seasons. Hiller fills the role of lefty-specialist and he was no stranger to the strikeout either.
Overall
While every single guy I drafted here could arguably be more useful than some guys who did make rosters, there were only a few obvious ones that fell through the cracks, particularly the corner outfielders and first baseman. I personally took Vladimir Guerrero to start over Paul Waner, Gary Sheffield and Harry Heilman... whoops.
Offense
The lineup had some easy choices but also a few I had to dig a bit for. The bench also came together fairly quickly although there are still plenty of great players still out there.
Starters
C Joe Torre - 131.6: Torre could really hit and had a pretty long career. He was not a standout with the glove at all but his bat was enough to carry his ACV over 130.
1B Jim Thome 146.5: Someone who probably should have been drafted, Thome is simply one of the best power hitters ever. He also has maintained his level of effectiveness for a very long time and his phenomenal career walk rate only furthers his value.
2B Charlie Gehringer 137.1: A pretty bad omission by us, Gehringer could really hit and wasn't too bad with the glove either.
3B Ron Santo 134.2: If I had control over hall of fame inductions Santo would be one of the first guys I put in. I actually expected him to rate higher. He has power, patience and was an asset in the field. A relatively short career prevents him from being among the all-time great 3B's.
SS Joe Cronin 130.8: An excellent glove man who could hit too, got derailed briefly mid career and that hurt his value but he was still a great player.
LF Gary Sheffield 148.8: The single biggest swing and miss by our group collectively. Maybe once Sheffield retires people will forget that he's a pain and realize how extraordinary of a player he was.
CF Larry Doby 137.2: The first American Leaguer to break the color barrier, just like Robinson, Doby is probably underrated as a player. He didn't have a very long career either, but did everything well.
RF Paul Waner 144.7: Big Poison was another serious miss on our parts. Waner had the misfortune of starting his career just as the home run was coming into favor. If he'd played 20 years earlier he might be considered among the best ever. Waner was a doubles machine and an asset in the field.
DH Harry Heilman 144.0 (145.0): Heilman led the league in batting four times and had plenty of power too. He was a natural with the bat but never at home in the field and that is why he is the DH instead of Thome.
Bench
C Gene Tenace 120.6: Tenace has probably the largest disparity between batting average and walk rate I know of. He's similar to Torre in that he is a hitter first and a catcher second but overall I still think he makes the most sense here.
IF Todd Helton 135.5: There might be better options here but I like Helton's combo of hitting and fielding. The numbers have been inflated by the park a bit but that doesn't change the fact that he's been a great player.
OF Larry Walker 139.8: Defense, speed, power, patience, throwing arm, he had them all.
UTIL Frankie Frish 129.3: A great baserunner and very good defender with enough power to keep hitters honest. Frisch was a very good all-around player who has been forgotten for the most part by casual fans.
UTIL Jim Edmonds 137.6: A spectacular defender, the best of this generation except for perhaps Andruw Jones in his prime. Also had a great eye and plenty of pop.
Pitching
We actually did a really good job drafting starting pitchers. No one really fell through the cracks for the most part, and the bullpen was pretty much more of the same.
SP Kevin Brown 115.6
SP Stan Coveleski 116.6
SP Red Faber 115.5
SP Ted Lyons 115.0
SP Eppa Rixey 113.5
A lot of generations and pitching styles covered here. I'm taking Rixey over Vic Willis to give myself a left-handed starter. All of these guys were essentially very good pitchers who had fairly long careers. None of them really stand out in any particular way, but that is not surprising since in the draft we took pretty much everyone who fit that mold.
RP Harry Brecheen 134.7
RP Troy Percival 121.7
RP John Hiller 129.3
RP John Wetteland 124.5
RP Tom Henke 129.5
RP Francisco Rodriguez 130.0
Brecheen is the only one of these guys who was mostly a starter, and he was a good one. His career got off to a late start, partially due to the war and as a result he was a regular until after his 28th birthday. Most of the rest of these guys were right-handed fireball closers who were dominant for at least a few seasons. Hiller fills the role of lefty-specialist and he was no stranger to the strikeout either.
Overall
While every single guy I drafted here could arguably be more useful than some guys who did make rosters, there were only a few obvious ones that fell through the cracks, particularly the corner outfielders and first baseman. I personally took Vladimir Guerrero to start over Paul Waner, Gary Sheffield and Harry Heilman... whoops.
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