Phillies Make Great Trade, But Miss Opportunity

First off, I must say that I think the Philadelphia Phillies did a great job to pry Cliff Lee away from the Indians without giving up an "A" prospect (in my opinion). However, I feel like they have missed a golden opportunity to cash in on a player who seems to be desired by other teams and is clearly at peak value right now. That player is J.A. Happ.

The 26-year-old Happ has been a bit of a savior this year for the Phillies, going 7-2 with a sub 3.00 ERA and really has been their best starter for the whole season. However, the underlying data shows that this is most likely a fluke. Happ's FIP (fielding-independant ERA) is 4.19; not a terrible number, but obviously a lot worse than his actual 2.97 ERA. This is due mostly to an absurdly low BABIP of .254 and a very low percentage of stranded runners (83.5%). Both of those figures are nearly a lock to normalize a bit before the season is over, and guaranteed to regress toward average over the course of his career.

However, the bad news for Happ does not end there. Happ is a fairly extreme fly-ball pitcher, posting a GB/FB ratio of 0.76, an ominous sign for someone who pitches in a veritable bandbox. Happ's raw stuff is also nothing spectacular, an 87-91 mph fastball to go with an average slider and changeup.

On the whole, Happ looks like a perfectly decent, but also easily replaceable piece of a rotation. I believe his ceiling is as a #3 starter but he is more likely going to be a #4 or #5. This would put him behind (since traded) Carlos Carrasco and Jason Knapp on my personal Phillies prospect list (Drabek is also above Happ). If the rumors are to be believed, the Blue Jays and Indians were both more interested in Happ than Carrasco who is four-and-a-half years younger.

I know that Happ is the most major league ready and that has to be taken into consideration for a team that wants to get back to the World Series this year, but I would be willing to bet that in the long run Carrasco proves to be the more valuable player. If all of these teams are as enamored with Happ as they are reported to be, the Phillies should seriously consider letting one of them have him... for the right price of course.