The Case for Dustin Ackley over Stephen Strasburg

If I was running the Washington Nationals Organization at the time of the June 2009 draft, I would have drafted Dustin Ackley over Stephen Strasburg. While it may seem foolish to pass on a potential once in a lifetime pitcher, the case for Dustin Ackley is much stronger than many would realize on first glance. The first, and most important, factor is price. Ackley is most likely going to sign for somewhere between five and eight million dollars while Strasburg (if he signs at all) is likely to get at least three times that amount. While I vehemetely believe that spending money in the draft is a great way to build a team, in a time where teams are concerned about economics as much as talent, that is a huge some of money. So the debate really comes down to whether you think Strasburg will be that much of a better player than Ackley to justify the difference.

First, I must point out that scouting and amateur player analysis/evaluation improves every single year and I therefore believe that the argument that "past can't-miss pitchers have all failed" is a poor belief. Knowing what we know now it is entirely possible that past flame-outs would be viewed very differently. For the purposes of this comparison I would like to point out that I do believe Strasburg will have a legitimate major league career, and probalby a very good one. But what about Ackley? The Strasburg hype machine has overshadowed him and I believe that the general public does not realize just how good he can be.

The Comparison

First, I think it is important to realize that pitchers, even college ones, more often fail to live up to expectations than hitters. Let's take a look at the drafts from 1997-2006 and compare college pitchers drafted in the top 5 vs. college hitters drafted in the top 5. I have chosen this 10-year stretch because 2006 is the most recent year that a fairly strong opinion of those drafted can be formed

1997
Hitters: Troy Glaus
Pitchers: Jason Grilli

1998
Hitters: Pat Burrell, J.D. Drew
Pitchers: Mark Mulder, Jeff Austin

1999
Hitters: Eric Munson
Pitchers: none

2000
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Adam Johnson, Justin Wayne

2001
Hitters: Mark Teixeira
Pitchers: Mark Prior, Dewon Brazelton

2002
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Brian Bullington

2003
Hitters: Rickie Weeks
Pitchers: Kyle Sleeth, Tim Stauffer

2004
Hitters: none
Pitchers: Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemenn

2005
Hitters: Alex Gordon, Jeff Clement, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman
Pitchers: none

2006
Hitters: Evan Longoria
Pitchers: Luke Hochevar, Greg Reynolds, Brad Lincoln, Brandon Morrow

So over that time we have 10 college hitters and 17 pitchers.

Of the 10 hitters there are 2 stars (Braun, Teixeira), 4 very good players (Glaus, Burrell, Drew, Zimmerman), 2 Average players (Weeks and Gordon) 1 disappointment (Clement) and 1 bust (Munson).
Of the 14 pitchers there is 1 star (Verlander), 1 very good player (Mulder), 2 average players (Prior and Niemenn), 5 disappointments (Grilli, Stauffer, Hochever, Lincoln, Morrow) and 8 busts (Austin, Johnson, Wayne, Brazelton, Humber, Bullington, Sleeth, Reynolds)

Looking at this, it is undeniable that pitchers are still significantly higher risks than Hitters. Is it true that Strasburg enterred the draft with more than any of these pitchers? Absolutely, but I think it would be naive to deny the underlying risk with selecting a pitcher.

What about Ackley, how does he compare to the other hitters listed here? Well when it comes to power Ackley is unlikely to match the output of the pure sluggers. But Ackley is a different kind of player. He has power (48 extra base hits including 22 home runs in 268 at bats at UNC last year) but it is not his calling card. Ackley's batting average in his three college seasons were: .402, .417, .417. He walked more than he struck out every year and 43/57 stealing bases over his career. Do college stats always translate to the majors? No, not at all. However, Ackley's stats are backed up by excellent old fashioned scouting reports. All of Ackley's tools are either above average or outstanding, including his arm even though he had Tommy John surgery before his junior season.

Put all of this together and you have a potentially special player in Ackley. Not only that, but he is one of the safest picks I've ever seen. What is the worst case scenario with Ackley? Shane Victorino? Looking at the college players who did not live up to expectations, it is revealed that Munson always had contact issues, Clement's highest college average was .348, and Gordon's highest was .372. Additionally, Weeks probably would have developed into a great player if he could have stayed healthy.

So what about Strasburg? He has better stuff than anyone in the majors right now. He wasn't overly worked in college, has good mechanics and by all accounts is a hard worker. He is the best pitching prospect, probably since I have been alive. But, at a price of 20+ million dollars? Call me a wimp but I'd take Ackley. Strasburg's ceiling is higher, but Ackley is no slouch, and at 1/3 the price, he's a bargain.