Mid Season Round Up

Halfway through the season look-back at projected standings and how we got where we actually are.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox; current pace: 98-64; projected result: 93-69

- The bullpen's spectacular season, combined with great performances from Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay have more than made up for disappointing seasons from Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and to a lesser extent Dustin Pedroia.


2. New York Yankees; current pace: 96-66; projected result: 92-70

- Having their healthiest season in years, the Yankees have ridden a hot offense and solid pitching throughout the season. Only Chien-Ming Wang has grossly disappointed, but several role players, including Alfredo Aceves have filled the void.


3. Tampa Bay Rays; current pace: 87- 75; projected result: 88-74

- The bullpen has been a bit of a mess, Scott Kazmir has done very little and Andy Sonnanstine has been awful, but Tampa Bay's offense has exceeded expectations; Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist's huge seasons came out of nowhere.


4. Toronto Blue Jays; current pace: 83-79; projected result: 83-79

- As expected the pitching injuries have hurt the team but Ricky Romero's great rookie campaign and across the board improvement from the whole lineup has kept the team afloat; Adam Lind looks like a young Justin Morneau at the plate.


5. Baltimore Orioles; current pace: 71-91; projected result: 76-86

- The rebuilding is going well in Baltimore, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters have firmly established themselves in the lineup and all of their pitching prospects are having very good seasons in the minors, look out in 2012!


This division has gone almost exactly as expected. Boston and New York remain the powerhouses while Tampa Bay has fallen back slightly as expected, however remains a definite contender. Toronto is a very good team but they are just missing too many key pitchers to keep up with the big boys. Baltimore is looking a lot like Tampa Bay did 3 years ago and could be one of the most exciting teams around very soon.


AL Central

1. Detroit Tigers; current pace: 88-74; projected result: 80-82

- Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn have had surprising seasons but it is all about the pitching in Detroit; Justin Verlander has bounced back in a big way and Edwin Jackson is having a great year, while rookie Rick Porcello has managed to hold his own.


2. Minnesota Twins; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 85-77

- Jason Kubel has joined the Mauer/Morneau duo to give the lineup 3 legitimate threats and the bullpen remains one of the best in baseball; the young starting rotation has not improved as expected but only Francisco Liriano has really struggled.


3. Chicago White Sox; current pace 83-79; projected result: 78-84

- The lineup hasn't had quite as many blackholes as expected and the pitching has been solid top to bottom; ironically Chicago has nobody having a truly dreadful season and that has been enough to keep them over .500 in a weak division.


4. Kansas City Royals; current pace 70-92; projected result: 76-86

- Losing Alex Gordon for the whole first half turned a below average lineup into an awful one and Zack Greinke's huge season has been unable to mask how terrible every other starter has been this year.


5. Cleveland Indians; current pace 64-98; projected result: 87-75

- Disaster does not even begin to describe Cleveland's season. Even though Grady Sizemore has been injured or ineffective all year, the offense has been fine, however the pitching is another story. Cliff Lee has been the staff ace and pitched by far the best of anyone on the team but is somehow only 4-8. Meanwhile the team's second best starter is Carl Pavano, who sports a 5.36 ERA; behind him things fall completely off a cliff as the Indians have not been able to find anyone to give them even a replacement level performance. The bullpen has not really been any better; closer Kerry Wood has an ERA over 5.00 and the rest of the pen has been so bad Cleveland decided to trade one of their better hitters, Mark DeRosa, for reliever Chris Perez.


The total collapse of Cleveland, and continued struggles of Kansas City have boosted Chicago and Detroit's records a good deal. Other than Cleveland, the division's biggest story is the renaissance of Detroit's pitching. Justin Verlander has re-established himself as one of the league's best while Edwin Jackson is finally delivering on the promise he showed several years ago. None of these teams are actually that good and the winner could be any of the top 3 teams.


AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; current pace: 91-71; projected result: 87-75

- After all the injuries to the rotation it is amazing the Angels have such a great record; Torii Hunter, Chone Figgins, Kendry Morales and Juan Rivera have made up for Vladimir Guerrero's decline and given the Angels their best offense in years.


1. Texas Rangers; current pace: 91-71; projected result: 75-87

- The Rangers offense has actually been below average with Josh Hamilton out, but they have played great defense in support of a flukishly good pitching staff; it would be a shock if the staff maintains this level of performance in the second half.


3. Seattle Mariners; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 69-93

- Upgraded team defense has resulted in surprising years from Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn while Felix Hernandez is having his best season and David Aardsma has been a revolution at closer; Russ Branyan's huge season has carried the offense.


4. Oakland Athletics; current pace: 69-93; projected result 85-77

- Other than Brett Anderson and Dana Eveland the young pitchers have held their own, but literally every offensive player has been a disappointment, leading to one of the most inept offenses in all of baseball.


The Rangers appear to be a bit of a fluke at this point but Seattle's impressive season is mostly for real. The biggest surprise has been Oakland's complete inability to score runs. The young rotation has shown glimpses of brilliance but it has become obvious that they were mostly too raw for the majors and losing Josh Outman has exacerbated the problem. The Angels now look poised to win the division and probably be mostly unchallenged near the end of the season.


NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies; current pace: 86-76; projected result: 88-74

- The Phillies season has gone almost exactly as expected, a powerful offense has carried a mediocre pitching staff and should continue to do so; Jimmy Rollins and Cole Hamels have struggled but Raul Ibanez and J.A. Happ have picked up the slack.


2. Florida Marlins; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 78-84

- The Marlins offense has been a little better than expected as Jorge Cantu continues to surprise and Chris Coghlan has produced more than expected; Josh Johnson is now clearly the leader of a solid young pitching staff with a good bullpen.


3. New York Mets; current pace: 78-84; projected result: 91-71

- No team has been more decimated by injuries than the Mets who have lost 3 of their 5 best players for significant portions of the season, and several other key role players for extended periods; due to the injuries, their struggles are not surprising.


3. Atlanta Braves; current pace: 78-84; projected result: 86-76

- The Braves expected to have a dominant staff that would carry a decent offense, but the pitching has been merely good and the offense has been very poor, mostly due to the struggles of Garrett Anderson, Kelly Johnson and Jordan Schafer.


5. Washington Nationals; current pace: 50-112; projected result: 68-94

- The Nationals can actually hit a little bit, but they have by far the worst pitching in baseball and a defense that only makes the problem worse; only John Lannan and Mike Macdougal have a positive WPA on the entire pitching staff.


The injuries to the Mets have shaken up the division a great deal. Florida's record is perhaps a bit misleading as they have destroyed the Nationals and played well below .500 ball against the rest of the league and that means that Philadelphia is probably the best team in this division by a good margin. However, Philadelphia's pitching is vulnerable and if New York can ever get Jose Reys, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran back they can certainly make a late charge.


NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals; current pace: 87-75; projected result: 77-85

- AKA Albert Pujols and friends, the Cardinals have enjoyed a nice year thanks mostly due to unexpectedly strong seasons from Colby Rasmus and Ryan Franklin plus a healthy Chris Carpenter, that and Pujols' +9.1 win performance over average.


2. Milwaukee Brewers; current pace: 85-77; projected result: 84-78

- Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo are having monster seasons and so is the 2nd base combination (Rickie Weeks and Casey Mcgeehee); the Brewers rotation is only getting by after Gallardo but that may be enough.


3. Chicago Cubs; current pace 82-80; projected result: 93-69

- The Cubs problems are almost completely due to the offense; Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Geovany Soto, Mike Fontenot and Milton Bradley have all been either huge disappointments or injured and Rich Harden's struggles have not helped.


4. Cincinnati Reds; current pace: 81-81; projected result: 78-84

- The pitching has been strong as expected, but Joey Votto's huge season (+7.6 wins above average) has made an otherwise poor offense seem respectable, however the Reds' run differential implies they have been lucky to play .500 ball so far.


5. Houston Astros; current pace: 79-83; projected result: 75-87

- Another team playing above its run differential, Houston's offense has been helped by strong seasons from Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada, while Wandy Rodriguez has been the teams' surprising best starter.


6. Pittsburgh Pirates; current pace: 73-89; projected result: 67-95

- Speaking of run differentials, Pittsburgh has played like a .500 team so far thanks to a roster that doesn't have a single true black hole in the rotation or lineup; Pittsburgh has no players more than +2 or -2 wins from average for the season.


Albert Pujols is somehow having another career season and is carrying the Cardinals in a very weak division. Any of the top 4 teams could pull this one out but the Cubs could probably still be considered the favorite since they are the only team that has massively under-performed and they are still only 2.5 games out of first. The other top 3 teams all have more significant holes and it is unlikely that any of them would go on an extended run.


NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers; current pace: 103-59; projected result: 88-74

- Everything has gone right for the team that did not even need Manny Ramirez; the lineup has been great, the rotation has been good and the pen has been sensational, only Russ Martin has underachieved but it has not mattered at all.


2. San Francisco Giants; current pace: 88-74; projected result: 77-85

- Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have been lights out and Pablo Sandoval has provided enough offensive punch to keep the team above .500; this team still has many flaws but the league's best pitching should keep them in the wild card race.


3. Colorado Rockies; current pace: 84-78; projected result: 75-87

- Brad Hawpe's huge season has pushed the offense into above average territory and the rotation has been solid partially due to Jason Marquis playing way over his head; Colorado has the easiest 2nd half schedule and could make a run.


4. San Diego Padres; current pace: 70-92; projected result: 65-97

- The Padres have been bad but Adrian Gonzalez, David Eckstein, Heath Bell and recently traded Scott Hairston kept them from being a disaster; San Diego is not close to being an even average and there is not much help on the way.


5. Arizona Diamondback; current pace: 66-96; projected result: 86-76

- The season got off to a horrible start when ace Brandon Webb was lost for the season on opening day and since then no one has stepped up to fill the void, but most of the blame has to fall on the offense; Chris Young, Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson have all been disasters, and even though Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton are having great years the offense has not gotten it done.


The dodgers were expected to win the division but nobody thought it would be this easy. The Rockies and Giants will be playing for the second while the Padres and Diamondbacks are having to cope with lost seasons. Arizona still has enough young talent to have hope for the future but San Diego is probably going to be bad for a long time. The National League is not as strong as the American, but right now the Dodgers appear to be able to compete with anybody.