The next team to be introduced was a collaborative effort. Because each of them were only available sparingly during the time when the draft was done, Brian, Mark and Frank each had a hand in building this roster. They had the 3rd overall pick and chose to go contemporary with the first two rounds, taking Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. I'll turn it over to Mark who introduces the rest of their roster.
Team notes:
We definitely drafted one of the nastiest hitting teams of all time. Our lineup alone features players totaling 20 MVP seasons and Dick Allen contributes one more MVP award off the bench. We feature a balanced lineup with speed, power, speed AND power, four righties, four lefties, and the greatest switch-hitter that ever played.
Our defense is average overall, with standout defensive players like Robinson, Bonds and Campanella, and we feature 11 gold gloves overall among our starters. This team wasn't designed to take away runs, it was designed to score them. And with the pitching staff assembled, our defense won't have much to worry about.
Our rotation is completely ridiculous. We feature the top two strikeout pitchers of all time in Ryan and Johnson, the pitcher with perhaps the best pure stuff ever in Koufax and two dominating workhorses in Blyleven and Halladay.
The bullpen only gets better with the all-time saves king, the former all-time saves king and an assembly of great starting pitchers that were willing to take a pay cut and a seat in the bullpen for the sake of being on this team.
Lineup:
2B Jackie Robinson - career OBP of .409, lightning fast and a great overall hitter
SS Alex Rodriguez - power AND speed and a chance to break the all-time HR record.
LF Barry Bonds - the definitive power/speed player, 7 MVP awards and both HR records.
DH Manny Ramirez - yeah, he's nuts, but he's a hitting savant with a career OPS+ of 155
CF Mickey Mantle - best switch-hitter ever, could've been the best ever if he'd laid off the sauce.
3B Harmon Killebew - hit 40 homers or more 8 times.
1B Willie McCovey - his 1969 MVP season was insane: 320/453/656 with 45 HR, 121 RBI and only 66 SOs
C Roy Campanella - Great combo of offense and defense, won 3 MVPs in just 10 seasons.
RF Joe Jackson - Career .356 hitter with a lifetime OPS+ of 170. Overqualified here to be a "second leadoff hitter"
Bench:
C Gary Carter - 11-time all-star and the only Expo in the HOF, 3 Gold Gloves and 5 Silver Sluggers.
1B Mark McGwire - We seem to have drafted a lot of steroids-related players, but nobody hit homers like Big Mac, who was also underrated defensively.
SS Phil Rizzuto - 1950 MVP winner and Yankees fan-favorite. He'll fill a backup role off the bench and will provide color commentary on off-days. Holy Cow!
1B Johnny Mize - Led the league in homers 4 times, won a batting title in 1939 and probably lost about 150 homers while serving in WWII.
IF/OF Dick Allen - Controversial but with a lethal bat, hit .308/.420/.603 in his 1972 MVP season.
Rotation:
LHP Randy Johnson - 6'10" physical freak dominated both leagues with his slider and fastball, awesome mullet.
RHP Nolan Ryan - fierce competitor pitched for 27 years, owns the records for most strikeouts and most no-hitters with 7
LHP Sandy Koufax - 7th all-time in strikeouts despite pitching only 12 seasons. 4 no-hitters including a perfect game. Jewish. Hell yes.
RHP Bert Blyleven - best pitcher not in the HOF, great curveball, 5th all-time in strikeouts, 9th all-time in shutouts.
RHP Roy Halladay - throwback workhorse, led the league 5 times in complete games in the modern era, 2 20-win seasons and still going strong.
Bullpen:
RHP Trevor Hoffman (Closer) - Holds the record for most saves all time, pitching for 17 seasons with one of the best change-ups ever.
RHP Lee Smith (Setup) - One of the modern eras most dominating relievers, recorded 478 saves and a career 8.7 K/9 ratio.
LHP Hal Newhouser - Won back-to-back MVP awards in '44 and '45, going 54-18 with a 2.01 ERA over 625 innings those years.
RHP Curt Schilling - One of the greatest big-game pitchers of all time. Played second-fiddle to Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez at different points, but was just as great on his own.
RHP Don Drysdale - Koufax's wingman, intimidating presence with a hard, side-arm fastball, led the league in HBP four years in a row.
RHP Roy Oswalt - diminutive bulldog, has the most wins in MLB since 2001 and a large repertoire of nasty pitches.
Manager - I know it sounds biased coming from a Yankee fan, but I feel that Joe Torre would be best suited to handling this ballclub. We ended up with a lot of high-maintenance players from Arod to Bonds, Manny, Unit and Mantle. Torre's success managing the odd personalities that came through the Yankees clubhouse in the late 90's and 00's would suit this team well. Also his bullpen-managing deficiencies would be well-hidden by the fact that everyone in our bullpen can pitch a ton of innings.
Captain - I had a hard time deciding this one but ultimately chose Curt Schilling to be the captain. Schilling doesn't take shit from anyone, has a big mouth, and knows what it takes to win ballgames and championships. He'd be the first one to slap Arod upside the head for doing something stupid, or to pitch in a playoff game despite having surgery on his ankle the same day.
Ballpark - With this lineup I was almost tempted to see if this team could be successful at Coors Field, but ultimately I want to go with pre-renovation Yankee Stadium. The short left-field plays well with Bonds, Arod, Mantle and McCovey, and the history of the stadium is undeniable.
Some personal observations now about this team...
- The lineup does have a ton of power and patience. There are some guys who run well, but it is mostly full of sluggers.
- This turned out to be the worst defensive team by a fair margin, with the corner infield spots being particularly problematic.
- The defensive problems are made worse by the fact that they do not have a natural third baseman on the bench, or a good outfield glove either. The best option appears to be have Rizzuto take over at SS, shift Rodriguez to third, and maybe Killebrew to first, although that does not help the corners much.
- The bench, while powerful does not really work nearly as well in a real life situation as many others. There are two slugging first baseman, and a slugging corner outfielder. While they are all great hitters, does a team really need this many defensively challenged home run hitters?
- The pitching staff, particularly the rotation, will strikeout tons of people allowing for more defensive lapses than most teams.
- The bullpen is very solid, made up mostly by starters who were just not quite good enough to find a rotation slot.
- The worst pick by this team was almost definitely Koufax in the fourth round. Considering you were getting these players for their career Koufax's value is minimal because: he was only a full time starter for nine years, missed a good deal of time during his career because of injuries even during those nine years, was really only better than league average in his career for six seasons, played during the pitching friendly 60s that made his numbers look better than they were, and played in one of the most friendly pitcher's parks ever further skewing his raw numbers.
- The best pick was Johnny Mize. The often forgotten first baseman had a career that paralleled Hank Greenberg's, but was actually better than Greenberg's in many ways. After crediting him with a few seasons for time missed due to the war, he ranked higher than many starting first basemen.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Friday, October 2, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player draft part III: Jimmy's Team
I figure I might as well cover my team next. I had the fifth overall pick and was happy to select my favorite player in history, Honus Wagner. I really liked the way my team shaped up from there, here it is:
Lineup
2B Eddie Collins - .424 career OBP, 7th all time in steals
SS Honus Wagner - Led the league in OPS 8 times, 10th all time in steals
1B Jimmie Foxx - Led league in OPS 5 times, 4 seasons of 155+ RBI
LF Stan Musial - Led league in OPS 7 times, 1st or 2nd in MVP voting 7 times
DH Frank Thomas - 9 seasons of 35+ HRs, .419 career OBP
3B Mike Schmidt - Led league in HRs 8 times, 3 MVP awards
C Mike Piazza - Most Hrs ever by a catcher, also hit .308 for his career
CF Earl Averill - OPS+ over 100 every year until 38, .318 career hitter
RF Vladimir Guerrero - .300+ average, 25+ HRs 11 straight years
Bench
C Bill Dickey - .313 career hitter with power, 678:289 career BB:K ratio
IF Arky Vaughan - .406 career OBP, led league in walks/runs 3 times each
OF Sam Crawford - Played before HRs were common, led league in triples 6 times
UT Jeff Bagwell - 135 ops+ every year of his career until age 35
UT Tim Raines - 5th all time in steals, caught less than half as many times as Henderson
Rotation
SP Lefty Grove - Led league in ERA 9 times, in K's 7 times
SP Roger Clemens - 7 Cy Young awards, 22 straight years of ERA+ better than 100
SP Mordecai Brown - 2.06 career ERA, 1.06 career WHIP
SP White Ford - More than twice as many wins as losses in career, 2.75 career ERA
SP Jim Palmer - 3 Cy Young awards, 8 time 20 game winner
Pen
CL Hoyt Wilhelm - Nearly 900 innings of 156 ERA+ AFTER 40th birthday
SU Billy Wagner - 11.8 K/9, Only 1 season in entire career with ERA over 2.85
LHP Billy Pierce - Maybe the best left-handed curve ever, 7 time all-star as a starter
RP Smoky Joe Wood - 2.03 career ERA, only arm injury prevented him from being Walter Johnson
RP Dizzy Dean - Won an MVP, finished 2nd two other times, led league in K's first 3 years of career
RP Brandon Webb - 64.2% of balls in play are grounders for career, over 140 ERA+ career
Comments: A heavy right-handed lineup is balanced by five superb left-handed hitters on the bench. I have three of the top 10 base-stealers of all time and 7 players with 400+ career HRs. The lowest career OBP in my lineup is .386. This team can beat you with power, speed or patience. Every starter except Piazza was significantly above average on defense, and several were among the best ever at their positions. Between Vaughan and Bagwell I have two guys that can play every infield position off the bench, and obviously Raines/Crawford can cover any spot in the outfield as well. Raines can pinch run for any number of guys if necessary in a late game spot.
My rotation is as diverse as it is talented. I have a power-lefty in Grove, a power-righty in Clemens, a finesse-lefty in Ford, a finesse-righty in Brown and someone in between in Jim Palmer. They all struck out tons of guys for their time and still had good control.
My bullpen can handle any situation that gets thrown at them. I have two lefties with vicious breaking pitches, two laser-armed righties to blow the ball by hitters, and I have the greatest groundball pitcher in the history of the game to get a double play if needed. Finally I have maybe the craftiest pitcher in baseball history as my closer. Wilhelm had probably the best knuckleball ever, but it wasn't his only pitch and he was so good he was an effective pitcher into his late 40s.
Captain: Honus Wagner - The Flying Dutchman played every single position on the diamond at some point in his career, giving him a unique perspective on the team and allowing him to relate to everyone on the roster. He was also the hardest worker in the game and a gentleman off the field. Although not extremely vocal he served as a mentor to many young players including Arky Vaughan. He is also believed to be the first player to lift weights in the off-season. He has a rare combination of being able to lead both by voice and by example.
Park: Fenway Park - With an everyday lineup containing only 2 left-handed hitters (one of them with minimal power and the other very adept at taking the ball the other way) the green monster is too tempting to resist. Foxx, Thomas, Schmidt, Piazza and Guerrero will rack up extra bases routinely in this hitter's haven. I also have a ground-ball/strikeout pitching staff, three of whom are right-handed which should limit opposing teams ability to take advantage of the park. The favorable calls the teams inevitably get due to the intimidating atmosphere is also hard to pass up.
Manager: Earl Weaver - There are so many tempting choices here, and even though I do not think he was the best manager ever, Earl Weaver fits my team's style perfectly. He had a .583 career winning percentage, managing teams with patience and power like this one. His hands off approach would be perfect for this team of mostly low-maintenance personalities. While my team does have speed, it probably will not need to use it often because of the meat of my lineup, further fitting Weaver's preferred style. And finally, since most of my position players are generally laid back, we need someone fiery to get in umpires faces when they blow calls.
So, some after the fact comments about my team:
- I have a lot of really early-era players on my team, probably the most of any team. I don't find this that surprising since I am probably more familiar with the players of that era than most, but I did manage to get at least a few from each generation
- My starting lineup's OBP is insane, every single player walked a ton in their career other than Guerrero, who made up for it by hitting .330.
- Other than Averill and Guerrero I feel like everyone in my lineup is the best or second best player at their position ever.
- Averill sticks out like a sore thumb in that lineup, but the CF's got snatched up very quickly (Dennis alone took like 4 of them) and I got stuck without an all-time great one. Averill is very solid though, certainly deserved to be on one of these teams, but probably not in a starting lineup.
- My defense in my starting lineup, other than Piazza is incredible. My entire infield was known for their glove work, and so was Averill. Piazza was a bad thrower but did other things well. Musial and Guerrero were not gold glovers but both were solid in the field.
- My best pick was probably Jimmie Foxx in the 6th round, that was far too long for him to be sitting out there, although I thought the Piazza and Thomas picks were also steals.
- My worst pick was probably Stan Musial in the second round. Musial is simply a phenomenal player, he was the best player in his league probably more times than anyone, but taking him over some of the elite CF's like Cobb, Mantle and Speaker came back to haunt me later when I got stuff without a great CF and there were still some great LF's on the board.
Lineup
2B Eddie Collins - .424 career OBP, 7th all time in steals
SS Honus Wagner - Led the league in OPS 8 times, 10th all time in steals
1B Jimmie Foxx - Led league in OPS 5 times, 4 seasons of 155+ RBI
LF Stan Musial - Led league in OPS 7 times, 1st or 2nd in MVP voting 7 times
DH Frank Thomas - 9 seasons of 35+ HRs, .419 career OBP
3B Mike Schmidt - Led league in HRs 8 times, 3 MVP awards
C Mike Piazza - Most Hrs ever by a catcher, also hit .308 for his career
CF Earl Averill - OPS+ over 100 every year until 38, .318 career hitter
RF Vladimir Guerrero - .300+ average, 25+ HRs 11 straight years
Bench
C Bill Dickey - .313 career hitter with power, 678:289 career BB:K ratio
IF Arky Vaughan - .406 career OBP, led league in walks/runs 3 times each
OF Sam Crawford - Played before HRs were common, led league in triples 6 times
UT Jeff Bagwell - 135 ops+ every year of his career until age 35
UT Tim Raines - 5th all time in steals, caught less than half as many times as Henderson
Rotation
SP Lefty Grove - Led league in ERA 9 times, in K's 7 times
SP Roger Clemens - 7 Cy Young awards, 22 straight years of ERA+ better than 100
SP Mordecai Brown - 2.06 career ERA, 1.06 career WHIP
SP White Ford - More than twice as many wins as losses in career, 2.75 career ERA
SP Jim Palmer - 3 Cy Young awards, 8 time 20 game winner
Pen
CL Hoyt Wilhelm - Nearly 900 innings of 156 ERA+ AFTER 40th birthday
SU Billy Wagner - 11.8 K/9, Only 1 season in entire career with ERA over 2.85
LHP Billy Pierce - Maybe the best left-handed curve ever, 7 time all-star as a starter
RP Smoky Joe Wood - 2.03 career ERA, only arm injury prevented him from being Walter Johnson
RP Dizzy Dean - Won an MVP, finished 2nd two other times, led league in K's first 3 years of career
RP Brandon Webb - 64.2% of balls in play are grounders for career, over 140 ERA+ career
Comments: A heavy right-handed lineup is balanced by five superb left-handed hitters on the bench. I have three of the top 10 base-stealers of all time and 7 players with 400+ career HRs. The lowest career OBP in my lineup is .386. This team can beat you with power, speed or patience. Every starter except Piazza was significantly above average on defense, and several were among the best ever at their positions. Between Vaughan and Bagwell I have two guys that can play every infield position off the bench, and obviously Raines/Crawford can cover any spot in the outfield as well. Raines can pinch run for any number of guys if necessary in a late game spot.
My rotation is as diverse as it is talented. I have a power-lefty in Grove, a power-righty in Clemens, a finesse-lefty in Ford, a finesse-righty in Brown and someone in between in Jim Palmer. They all struck out tons of guys for their time and still had good control.
My bullpen can handle any situation that gets thrown at them. I have two lefties with vicious breaking pitches, two laser-armed righties to blow the ball by hitters, and I have the greatest groundball pitcher in the history of the game to get a double play if needed. Finally I have maybe the craftiest pitcher in baseball history as my closer. Wilhelm had probably the best knuckleball ever, but it wasn't his only pitch and he was so good he was an effective pitcher into his late 40s.
Captain: Honus Wagner - The Flying Dutchman played every single position on the diamond at some point in his career, giving him a unique perspective on the team and allowing him to relate to everyone on the roster. He was also the hardest worker in the game and a gentleman off the field. Although not extremely vocal he served as a mentor to many young players including Arky Vaughan. He is also believed to be the first player to lift weights in the off-season. He has a rare combination of being able to lead both by voice and by example.
Park: Fenway Park - With an everyday lineup containing only 2 left-handed hitters (one of them with minimal power and the other very adept at taking the ball the other way) the green monster is too tempting to resist. Foxx, Thomas, Schmidt, Piazza and Guerrero will rack up extra bases routinely in this hitter's haven. I also have a ground-ball/strikeout pitching staff, three of whom are right-handed which should limit opposing teams ability to take advantage of the park. The favorable calls the teams inevitably get due to the intimidating atmosphere is also hard to pass up.
Manager: Earl Weaver - There are so many tempting choices here, and even though I do not think he was the best manager ever, Earl Weaver fits my team's style perfectly. He had a .583 career winning percentage, managing teams with patience and power like this one. His hands off approach would be perfect for this team of mostly low-maintenance personalities. While my team does have speed, it probably will not need to use it often because of the meat of my lineup, further fitting Weaver's preferred style. And finally, since most of my position players are generally laid back, we need someone fiery to get in umpires faces when they blow calls.
So, some after the fact comments about my team:
- I have a lot of really early-era players on my team, probably the most of any team. I don't find this that surprising since I am probably more familiar with the players of that era than most, but I did manage to get at least a few from each generation
- My starting lineup's OBP is insane, every single player walked a ton in their career other than Guerrero, who made up for it by hitting .330.
- Other than Averill and Guerrero I feel like everyone in my lineup is the best or second best player at their position ever.
- Averill sticks out like a sore thumb in that lineup, but the CF's got snatched up very quickly (Dennis alone took like 4 of them) and I got stuck without an all-time great one. Averill is very solid though, certainly deserved to be on one of these teams, but probably not in a starting lineup.
- My defense in my starting lineup, other than Piazza is incredible. My entire infield was known for their glove work, and so was Averill. Piazza was a bad thrower but did other things well. Musial and Guerrero were not gold glovers but both were solid in the field.
- My best pick was probably Jimmie Foxx in the 6th round, that was far too long for him to be sitting out there, although I thought the Piazza and Thomas picks were also steals.
- My worst pick was probably Stan Musial in the second round. Musial is simply a phenomenal player, he was the best player in his league probably more times than anyone, but taking him over some of the elite CF's like Cobb, Mantle and Speaker came back to haunt me later when I got stuff without a great CF and there were still some great LF's on the board.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
The All-Time MLB Player Draft part II: Adam's Team
Adam had the 6th overall pick but still got Ted Williams. I will now turn things over to him as he introduces his formidable roster...
- For a Red Sox fan Adam sure ended up with a lot of Yankees....
- Adam was the first person to draft a player for the bullpen, taking Mariano Rivera, a move that proves quite shrewd once the stats start to get broken down.
- Adam took Pedro Martinez very early, the second pitcher off the board in fact despite his relatively short career.
- There are a lot of players mid-career or who just retired on this roster and they are going to be evaluated based only on what they have accomplished so far, but it might be surprising just how well they stack up even under those circumstances
- Adam's bench is not going to wow anybody, but he really has every situation covered here. He has a great defensive infielder/outfielder, he has guys that hit and can run. Decisions like this will be rewarded during the evaluation process.
- In my opinion Adam's best pick was Nap Lajoie who was the 5th second baseman off the board well after a couple of others, but my evaluation method really seemed to favor him.
- In my opinion Adam's worst pick was probably Ivan Rodriguez at catcher. Rodriguez is a fine catcher but even his great defensive skills cannot makeup for his poor OBP over the course of his career, and there were better options on the board at the time.
Lineup
LF Rickey Henderson - Greatest leadoff hitter ever. All time steals leader. All time runs leader. #2 all time in walks. 1 MVP.
SS Derek Jeter - Perfect 2 hitter. Decent pop. Gets on base at a steady pace. VERY clutch hitter. Barring injury will finish his career with around 3500 hits, and an average in the .315 range. Also has speed over 300 steals in his career so far.
DH Ted Williams - Last player to hit over .400. One of the greatest hitters of all time. All time OBP leader. Missed 3 full years and parts of 2 others in his prime because of war. Numbers could have been better than they already are. 2 time MVP
1B Albert Pujols - Arguably the best hitter in the 2000's. Big power and average numbers. All around great hitter with good D. 2 Time MVP (would have been more if weren’t for Bonds)
CF Ken Griffey Jr. - Arguably the best player in the 1990's. Sweetest swing of all time. Amazing CFer,.10 GGs 1 MVP.
RF Dave Winfield - Freakish athlete. Huge arm, big power. Love him as protection for Griffey. 7 time GGer...STRONGLY disagree with the D+…also had speed earlier in his career. 223 career steals.
3B Cal Ripken Jr. - Iron Man. He'll be in the lineup everyday. 3000+ hits. 400+ homers. Perfect 7 hole hitter for me. Can play both SS and 3B. 2 time MVP
C Ivan Rodriguez - Pudge. Underrated as a hitter. Solid pop, not horrible speed. Another perfect 8 hole hitter for this team. 1 MVP.
2B Napoleon Lajoie - I wouldnt mind leading this guy off. Unfortunately for him, Henderson is around. This guy has the highest single season average in the modern era. 5 time batting champ. Also won a HR crown.
Bench
Lou Boudreau - will be a defensive replacement for Jeter, as well as possible pinch hitter option. He's not the fastest guy, but also not slow. Big time doubles hitter.Tony Gwynn - is going to be a great bench player for me. He is a great hitter, and even though we mostly remember him as a fat old man, he did have wheels early in his career. One of the best hitters of the modern era.
Craig Biggio - will serve as my backup catcher, as well as jack of all trades. He can sub at 2b as well as the OF. He has good legs, as he led the league in steals one yr. Not bad for a backup catcher. 3000+ hits for him
Eddie Murray - gives me some first base depth as well as a power bat from both sides of the plate.
Dom Dimaggio - although always overshadowed by his Yankee Clipper brother, was a heck of a ballplayer. He was a solid hitter, and played in a time when the steal wasnt a big stat. He could run, though. He'll be my defensive specialist in the OF as well as a pinch runner.
Starting Rotation
Pedro Martinez – When right, he is, in my mind, the best pitcher ever. I used to watch this guy every time out. He was close to unhittable for awhile there. Considering the era he was doing it in means a lot.
Steve Carlton – A power lefty for the top of my rotation. 4th all time in K’s and 4 Cy Youngs. He also won a GG.
Bob Gibson – This guy is a playoff BULLDOG. He won 2 Cy Youngs and an MVP. Also a GGer.
Juan Marichal – Big time workhorse. Lead the league in wins twice, IP twice, SHO twice, ERA once.
Tom Glavine – 300+ wins. 5 time league leader in wins. 2 Cy Youngs.
Bullpen
Mariano Rivera - What else do I need to say? Unhittable cutter. So unhittable that he doesn’t need any other pitches. He could tell you its coming and where it’s going to go, and you still wouldn’t be able to hit it.
John Smoltz – Playoff BULLDOG. Over 200 wins and over 150 Saves. Led the league in Wins 2 times and Saves once. Won a Cy Young.
Lefty Gomez – One of the best pitchers of the era. He led the league in wins twice, ERA twice, SHO 3 times and K’s 3 times.
Dan Quisenberry – Submariner who led the league in saves 5 times. ERA+ of 146 in over 1000 IP.
Robb Nen – 16th on the career saves list. ERA+ of 136. This guy was destined for greatness until he blew out his shoulder carrying the Giants to the World Series in 2002. Big time fastball.
CC Sabathia – Big power lefty with a brutal slider. Still young and is an innings machine. He’s one of a few guys in todays game who can consistently go the distance. I would put him at LOOGY but I think he’s of more use staying stretched out.
Manager
I select my manager to be Tony LaRussa. I selected him because not only is he a multiple time WS champion, he's #3 on the all time wins list.
He's managed 2 of my players, Henderson (A's) and Pujols (Cards). Henderson is the only player who has personality issues, who better to manage him than the person who dealt with it the most when Henderson actually played, and was playing at his best. He is one if 7 managers all time to have graduated law school or pass the bar. He is also known for using more statistical analysis that most other teams in MLB.
Park
For my home park I select Sportsman's Park in St. Louis. This is a pitchers park for sure, but isn't too spacious to hurt my OF defense. Luckily Griffey has the most ground to cover, and he's the one who can cover it. It's a pitchers park, which plays into my hands, having a very good rotation and very solid bullpen. It also happens to be shorter in RF which helps because it's less ground for Winfield to cover, and also helps with my big power guys of Williams and Griffey will be able to knock it out of the park consistently. I predict a good amount of triples for Henderson, Jeter, and Lajoie.
Captain
Derek Jeter - Great clubhouse presence. Has experience winning and dealing with divas. His dedication and demeanor are exactly what I want out of a captain. He can also lead by example. He is Mr. November.
- For a Red Sox fan Adam sure ended up with a lot of Yankees....
- Adam was the first person to draft a player for the bullpen, taking Mariano Rivera, a move that proves quite shrewd once the stats start to get broken down.
- Adam took Pedro Martinez very early, the second pitcher off the board in fact despite his relatively short career.
- There are a lot of players mid-career or who just retired on this roster and they are going to be evaluated based only on what they have accomplished so far, but it might be surprising just how well they stack up even under those circumstances
- Adam's bench is not going to wow anybody, but he really has every situation covered here. He has a great defensive infielder/outfielder, he has guys that hit and can run. Decisions like this will be rewarded during the evaluation process.
- In my opinion Adam's best pick was Nap Lajoie who was the 5th second baseman off the board well after a couple of others, but my evaluation method really seemed to favor him.
- In my opinion Adam's worst pick was probably Ivan Rodriguez at catcher. Rodriguez is a fine catcher but even his great defensive skills cannot makeup for his poor OBP over the course of his career, and there were better options on the board at the time.
The All-Time MLB Player Draft Part I: Intro
Get ready for a whole lot of text in the coming days...
A few of my friends and I decided, just for the hell of it, to hold a baseball draft where every single player in the history of the game was available. I was personally thinking about how I would rank all-time players against each other and figured I could use some other perspectives and why not get them in a fun way? I was thrilled that my friends got very into the draft and as a result we ended up with six teams.
The rules were simple:
- You were drafting as if you were a real life GM, this was not for fantasy sports. As a result you had to consider everything. Little things like clubhouse chemistry of your team should be considered along with defense and all the other usual offensive categories people are familiar with.
- You had to draft players with MLB careers, no players who spent the majority of their time in the negro league or Japanese leagues.
- You could not draft any players who played the majority of their careers before 1900.
- You are drafting a full 25 man roster, a starting lineup (including DH), 5 bench players (including at least 1C, 1IF and 1OF), 5 starting pitchers, and 6 relievers (one of which must be left-handed).
- You can draft starting pitchers and place them in your bullpen
- You are drafting a player with the assumption that you get them for their entire career, so you should draft players with the thought in mind that career value is the priority
- You could start a position player at any position they played for a reasonable amount of time in the Major Leagues
- This is for fun and should not be taken too seriously but there will be an evaluation at the end to see who ended up with the best team (an in depth explanation of this will follow after the teams are introduced).
- It will be a snake-style draft and the order for the first round was Andy, Anthony, Brian (with help from Mark and Frank), Dennis, Jimmy (me) and Adam.
- Players will be given credit for time missed for reasons beyond their control (being at war, being banned from baseball because of the color of your skin, etc.)
With those rules outlined we spent a week drafting our teams through e-mail and the group of players we ended up with was impressive. I will let the GM of each team introduce their team themselves in the coming entries with a small commentary from me afterward.
A few of my friends and I decided, just for the hell of it, to hold a baseball draft where every single player in the history of the game was available. I was personally thinking about how I would rank all-time players against each other and figured I could use some other perspectives and why not get them in a fun way? I was thrilled that my friends got very into the draft and as a result we ended up with six teams.
The rules were simple:
- You were drafting as if you were a real life GM, this was not for fantasy sports. As a result you had to consider everything. Little things like clubhouse chemistry of your team should be considered along with defense and all the other usual offensive categories people are familiar with.
- You had to draft players with MLB careers, no players who spent the majority of their time in the negro league or Japanese leagues.
- You could not draft any players who played the majority of their careers before 1900.
- You are drafting a full 25 man roster, a starting lineup (including DH), 5 bench players (including at least 1C, 1IF and 1OF), 5 starting pitchers, and 6 relievers (one of which must be left-handed).
- You can draft starting pitchers and place them in your bullpen
- You are drafting a player with the assumption that you get them for their entire career, so you should draft players with the thought in mind that career value is the priority
- You could start a position player at any position they played for a reasonable amount of time in the Major Leagues
- This is for fun and should not be taken too seriously but there will be an evaluation at the end to see who ended up with the best team (an in depth explanation of this will follow after the teams are introduced).
- It will be a snake-style draft and the order for the first round was Andy, Anthony, Brian (with help from Mark and Frank), Dennis, Jimmy (me) and Adam.
- Players will be given credit for time missed for reasons beyond their control (being at war, being banned from baseball because of the color of your skin, etc.)
With those rules outlined we spent a week drafting our teams through e-mail and the group of players we ended up with was impressive. I will let the GM of each team introduce their team themselves in the coming entries with a small commentary from me afterward.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Ranking the 32 starting NFL Quarterbacks
Inspired by a conversation I heard on Mike and Mike while getting ready to leave for Law School this morning, I decided to subjectively rank all of the quarterbacks in the NFL. This is purely from my perspective and solely states the order in which I would personally choose the QB's if I was starting my own team. This has nothing to do with fantasy sports either, this is purely if all of the QB's were thrown into a pool and open for drafting, what my "big board" would look like. Note that this is a ranking for my perceived value of them for this season only. So, without further ado....
1. Peyton Manning - 16 starts, 4,000+ yards, 27+ TDs practically guaranteed. Manning is also the unquestioned leader of the Colts and has proven he can win the big one. By the time he retires I fully expect him to be considered the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL and he is currently in his prime. He is the unquestioned #1 quarterback in the league, in my opinion.
2. Drew Brees - Since 2004-2005 Brees' worst QB rating is 89.2. He is an incredibly accurate passer and has impeccable decision making ability and an uncanny ability to read defenses. The system he plays in gets a lot of credit for his successes, but how effective would it be without him?
3. Tom Brady - If not for his injury last season, Brady would be nipping at Manning's heels but early signs from this season have not been overwhelmingly positive for Brady. Obviously his track record is sterling and he should regain his old form before long, and it is a testament to his ability that he still rates this highly coming off such a serious surgery.
4. Ben Roethlisberger - I have never been a fan of the phrase, "he just wins games" but it is hard to justify this ranking in any other way. Roethlisberger is not impressive statistically in many ways, but the guy has won two Superbowls and seems to have an innate ability to make big plays at the right time. He is tough as nails, makes good decisions and never gives up on a play. Similar to all of the players above him, he is a born leader and teammates love playing alongside him.
5. Philip Rivers - From the same draft class as Roethlisberger, and the better passer in statistical terms, Rivers is also as tough as they come. However, Rivers' teams have underperformed a bit over the last couple of reasons and while I do not feel it was through any fault of his, he has to slot in behind Big Ben for that reason.
6. Aaron Rodgers - He has only been a starter for one season, but he was a great year despite a poor running game and suspect offensive line. Rodgers also handled the whole Favre situation flawlessly which seemed to endear himself to his teammates. Because Rodgers has so much potential and also appears to have the right mentality for the NFL he ranks very highly on the list despite his lack of experience.
7. Matt Ryan - Even less experienced than Rodgers, but it was impossible to ignore how well Ryan performed last season under less than ideal circumstances. He does all of the little things well and plays with the poise of a veteran. He also has all the intangibles and physical tools that you look for in a quarterback. I expect that if I were to do this list again a couple of years from now he would rank a good deal higher.
8. Eli Manning - I'm actually surprised I have him this high, but after breaking him down it makes sense. He won a Superbowl and last year had by far his best statistical season, and did it mostly without his security blanket, Plaxico Burress. The Superbowl win won him the trust of his teammates and if last year's number were a sign of things to come, he may actually be ranked too low.
9. Donovon McNabb - I have always been a fan of McNabb's and wanted to rank him ahead of Eli but simply could not justify it. Between the healthy and some suspect performances in big games, McNabb's stock has fallen a little bit despite his outstanding statistical resume. I actually think getting out of Philadelphia would do wonders for him because he has been a much better quarterback over the course of his career than he has been given credit for. All that said, I think he is starting to decline and his best years are now behind him.
10. Carson Palmer - Still has not really regained his pre-injury form but when Palmer is right he can be as good as anyone. He has had a rough go of it with all of the turmoil surrounding the Bengals but has consistently handled it well. He is simply too talented to slip any further down the board, even in this one year scenario.
11. Kurt Warner - Warner has won a Superbowl and has proven over the last couple of seasons that he still has the ability to put up big numbers. Objectively, he should probably rank higher, but these are my personal rankings and I'm putting him here. I simply do not trust him to always make the right choice in a big spot. I've seen him throw the ball right to a defender too many times and since he does not offer any value with anything other than his throwing, this seems appropriate to me.
12. Tony Romo - Similar to Warner, I just do not trust him in a big spot despite the gaudy statistics. He is great at improvising, has a good arm and throws one of the best deep balls in the league, but he still tends to be very mistake prone. All this still has time to change and I do think the Cowboys can win a Superbowl with Romo as their quarterback, but I just cannot see taking him over any of the people above in 2009.
13. Joe Flacco - I'm honestly shocked he is this high. Last year they made the playoffs mostly because Flacco was not asked to do much, but when he was asked to make a throw, he often did. Already it is clear he is being trusted more this year and so far the results are good. He has all the physical tools to be a success and expect him to climb this chart slowly over the coming years.
14. Chad Pennington - Pennington knows his strengths and his weaknesses. He is incredibly accurate has a great rapport with his receivers. The reason he ranks this lowly is because I just do not think he has the ability to quickly bring back his team if they are down. This points was perfectly illustrated a couple days ago when they lost to the Colts on Monday Night Football. Pennington is a good quarterback and you can win with him, and it is to his credit that he ranks this highly despite being one of the least physically gifted passers in the game.
15. Jay Cutler - The anti-Pennington. With possibly the best arm in the game, Cutler can make spectacular plays but I question his mechanics, decision making and attitude. I personally would not be thrilled about having him as my teammate after all of the off-season shenanigans. However because of his tools and big play ability he still sits just above the midpoint of the league. He has more potential than almost anyone on this list.
16. Matt Schaub - Schaub has a lot of ability but has not been able to put it on display because he has spent far too much time in the training room. Because he has not really proven anything yet, he ranks here, but he has a good chance of rocketing up this board if he can put together a full healthy season.
17. Kyle Orton - Orton will not wow you, but he quietly had a very solid season last year and has taken a team to the playoffs before. He is a fairly steady performer and in the right situation can have success on a team.
18. Brett Favre - I am a little tired of the whole Brett Favre experience and I get the impression a lot of the players in the NFL are as well. He still has some talent, but as his arm continues to lose its power he will have to rely more and more on his decision making, and that was never his best attribute. I admire how he has managed the game in his first two starts this year and I may be short changing him on the list for subjective reasons, but he is another player I simply do not trust in a big spot anymore.
19 Mark Sanchez - A rookie probably should not rank this highly, particularly one who had as little experience at the college level as Sanchez, however since the moment he has been drafted Sanchez has done no wrong. By all accounts he is an incredibly hard worker, a born leader and he obviously has all the physical tools to be great. I believe he can have success in a manner similar to Joe Flacco last season. As long as you do not ask him to do too much, he can be a valuable asset.
20. Matt Hasselbeck - I may have him a little too low on this list, but he is getting up there in years, is coming off an awful, injury plagued season, and has really only been good in one of the last three years. I'm also always skeptical of quarterbacks with chronic back problems. His performance this year so far has done nothing to change my opinion of him, and he now sits firmly in "prove it" status for me in regards to his value.
21. Matt Cassell - Cassell was excellent last year, but it would be hard to find a situation more favorable to a quarterback than the 2008 Patriots. He still has a lot to prove to me and his performance last week against Oakland was far from inspiring. He is another one that has a chance to move way up the list with only a handful of good games, but I just cannot justify taking him over any of the people ahead of him at this point.
22. Shaun Hill - Hill is sort of Ben Roethlisberger light to me. Do you realize he is 7-4 as a starter over the last two seasons? However, Roethlisberger ranks where he does because he has won two Superbowls and a huge percentage of his games. Hill is obviously not there yet and given his limited skills this seems like an appropriate place for him until he proves he belongs higher.
23. Marc Bulger - Bulger used to be one of the best quarterbacks in football, so what happened? His team fell apart all around him. Personally I think the talent is still in there somewhere and he would be able to show it, in a better environment. Since this list evaluates quarterbacks in a vacuum I think this is a fair place for him.
24. David Garrard - Garrard had a very impressive 2007 season but really has not done much otherwise. He is an asset when running the ball and has shown the ability to be an effective passer at times as well. Maybe he should rank higher but his mediocre play over the last year-plus just does not inspire confidence in me.
25. Jason Campbell - Campbell does not make many mistakes but often looks downright scared of taking any risks whatsoever. He has excellent tools but never puts them on display. Campbell's problems stem completely from the mental side of the game, but since he has not really improved at all in the last few seasons, I can't see how he belongs any higher than this.
26. Trent Edwards - Edwards has had a nice start to the season, but I have watched him play several times, and every time I am left unimpressed. He just does not seem to have enough ability to be a success without being a master of the subtleties and nuances of the game, and nothing he has shown so far makes me believe he ever will have that trait either. Still young enough to improve, but consider me skeptical.
27. Kerry Collins - In his earlier days, Collins proved that in a perfect situation he could be a great quarterback, but when things were less than ideal, he was never able to get it done. Now that he is older and does not have quite the same arm strength anymore, I think his ceiling as a passer is just incredibly low. I do not think he is capable of making big plays anymore, nor is he consistent.
28. Jake DelHomme - Has had a lot of success in his career, but always seemed to me like one of those guys that often chucked the ball up in the air and depended on his receivers to make a play far too often. It finally appears that this is coming back to haunt him and as a result I have lost all faith in his ability to win an important game. Maybe I'm wrong but I just really would not want him to be running my offense.
29. Byron Leftwich - Blessed with a rocket arm, but the slowest release in the game and the mobility of a redwood, Leftwich really needs to be in the right situation to have success. He has also proven to be a bit fragile over the years despite his toughness. The fact that the Jaguars chose Garrard (who is far from spectacular) over him is also telling in my mind, and while he might be Tampa Bay's best option, I would not want him to be my quarterback.
30. Brady Quinn - I was sort of on the Brady Quinn bandwagon coming into the year but my nose still has not recovered from the two stink bombs he has thrown out so far. In retrospect, maybe it is telling that Cleveland went so long to give him a shot despite the big contract and Derek Anderson's major struggles. He has had plenty of time to learn the game from the sidelines at this point but really has shown almost nothing on the field. Until he starts proving he can cut it in the NFL I see no reason for him to be higher on this list.
31. Jamarcus Russell - Similar to Quinn in that he has shown nothing in games to make me a believer. Do not be fooled by last year's statistics, almost all of his decent numbers were accumulated after his team was already out of the game. By the way, he has completed 35% of his passes so far this season.
32. Matthew Stafford - I will be the first to admit that I was not a big Stafford fan while he was in college. Despite the big arm his statistics were never really that impressive and I saw him make a lot of really poor decisions. I looked at him as a a bit of project in the NFL and now he is being thrown right into the fire. Maybe he will be good someday, but I am sure he is not right now.
1. Peyton Manning - 16 starts, 4,000+ yards, 27+ TDs practically guaranteed. Manning is also the unquestioned leader of the Colts and has proven he can win the big one. By the time he retires I fully expect him to be considered the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL and he is currently in his prime. He is the unquestioned #1 quarterback in the league, in my opinion.
2. Drew Brees - Since 2004-2005 Brees' worst QB rating is 89.2. He is an incredibly accurate passer and has impeccable decision making ability and an uncanny ability to read defenses. The system he plays in gets a lot of credit for his successes, but how effective would it be without him?
3. Tom Brady - If not for his injury last season, Brady would be nipping at Manning's heels but early signs from this season have not been overwhelmingly positive for Brady. Obviously his track record is sterling and he should regain his old form before long, and it is a testament to his ability that he still rates this highly coming off such a serious surgery.
4. Ben Roethlisberger - I have never been a fan of the phrase, "he just wins games" but it is hard to justify this ranking in any other way. Roethlisberger is not impressive statistically in many ways, but the guy has won two Superbowls and seems to have an innate ability to make big plays at the right time. He is tough as nails, makes good decisions and never gives up on a play. Similar to all of the players above him, he is a born leader and teammates love playing alongside him.
5. Philip Rivers - From the same draft class as Roethlisberger, and the better passer in statistical terms, Rivers is also as tough as they come. However, Rivers' teams have underperformed a bit over the last couple of reasons and while I do not feel it was through any fault of his, he has to slot in behind Big Ben for that reason.
6. Aaron Rodgers - He has only been a starter for one season, but he was a great year despite a poor running game and suspect offensive line. Rodgers also handled the whole Favre situation flawlessly which seemed to endear himself to his teammates. Because Rodgers has so much potential and also appears to have the right mentality for the NFL he ranks very highly on the list despite his lack of experience.
7. Matt Ryan - Even less experienced than Rodgers, but it was impossible to ignore how well Ryan performed last season under less than ideal circumstances. He does all of the little things well and plays with the poise of a veteran. He also has all the intangibles and physical tools that you look for in a quarterback. I expect that if I were to do this list again a couple of years from now he would rank a good deal higher.
8. Eli Manning - I'm actually surprised I have him this high, but after breaking him down it makes sense. He won a Superbowl and last year had by far his best statistical season, and did it mostly without his security blanket, Plaxico Burress. The Superbowl win won him the trust of his teammates and if last year's number were a sign of things to come, he may actually be ranked too low.
9. Donovon McNabb - I have always been a fan of McNabb's and wanted to rank him ahead of Eli but simply could not justify it. Between the healthy and some suspect performances in big games, McNabb's stock has fallen a little bit despite his outstanding statistical resume. I actually think getting out of Philadelphia would do wonders for him because he has been a much better quarterback over the course of his career than he has been given credit for. All that said, I think he is starting to decline and his best years are now behind him.
10. Carson Palmer - Still has not really regained his pre-injury form but when Palmer is right he can be as good as anyone. He has had a rough go of it with all of the turmoil surrounding the Bengals but has consistently handled it well. He is simply too talented to slip any further down the board, even in this one year scenario.
11. Kurt Warner - Warner has won a Superbowl and has proven over the last couple of seasons that he still has the ability to put up big numbers. Objectively, he should probably rank higher, but these are my personal rankings and I'm putting him here. I simply do not trust him to always make the right choice in a big spot. I've seen him throw the ball right to a defender too many times and since he does not offer any value with anything other than his throwing, this seems appropriate to me.
12. Tony Romo - Similar to Warner, I just do not trust him in a big spot despite the gaudy statistics. He is great at improvising, has a good arm and throws one of the best deep balls in the league, but he still tends to be very mistake prone. All this still has time to change and I do think the Cowboys can win a Superbowl with Romo as their quarterback, but I just cannot see taking him over any of the people above in 2009.
13. Joe Flacco - I'm honestly shocked he is this high. Last year they made the playoffs mostly because Flacco was not asked to do much, but when he was asked to make a throw, he often did. Already it is clear he is being trusted more this year and so far the results are good. He has all the physical tools to be a success and expect him to climb this chart slowly over the coming years.
14. Chad Pennington - Pennington knows his strengths and his weaknesses. He is incredibly accurate has a great rapport with his receivers. The reason he ranks this lowly is because I just do not think he has the ability to quickly bring back his team if they are down. This points was perfectly illustrated a couple days ago when they lost to the Colts on Monday Night Football. Pennington is a good quarterback and you can win with him, and it is to his credit that he ranks this highly despite being one of the least physically gifted passers in the game.
15. Jay Cutler - The anti-Pennington. With possibly the best arm in the game, Cutler can make spectacular plays but I question his mechanics, decision making and attitude. I personally would not be thrilled about having him as my teammate after all of the off-season shenanigans. However because of his tools and big play ability he still sits just above the midpoint of the league. He has more potential than almost anyone on this list.
16. Matt Schaub - Schaub has a lot of ability but has not been able to put it on display because he has spent far too much time in the training room. Because he has not really proven anything yet, he ranks here, but he has a good chance of rocketing up this board if he can put together a full healthy season.
17. Kyle Orton - Orton will not wow you, but he quietly had a very solid season last year and has taken a team to the playoffs before. He is a fairly steady performer and in the right situation can have success on a team.
18. Brett Favre - I am a little tired of the whole Brett Favre experience and I get the impression a lot of the players in the NFL are as well. He still has some talent, but as his arm continues to lose its power he will have to rely more and more on his decision making, and that was never his best attribute. I admire how he has managed the game in his first two starts this year and I may be short changing him on the list for subjective reasons, but he is another player I simply do not trust in a big spot anymore.
19 Mark Sanchez - A rookie probably should not rank this highly, particularly one who had as little experience at the college level as Sanchez, however since the moment he has been drafted Sanchez has done no wrong. By all accounts he is an incredibly hard worker, a born leader and he obviously has all the physical tools to be great. I believe he can have success in a manner similar to Joe Flacco last season. As long as you do not ask him to do too much, he can be a valuable asset.
20. Matt Hasselbeck - I may have him a little too low on this list, but he is getting up there in years, is coming off an awful, injury plagued season, and has really only been good in one of the last three years. I'm also always skeptical of quarterbacks with chronic back problems. His performance this year so far has done nothing to change my opinion of him, and he now sits firmly in "prove it" status for me in regards to his value.
21. Matt Cassell - Cassell was excellent last year, but it would be hard to find a situation more favorable to a quarterback than the 2008 Patriots. He still has a lot to prove to me and his performance last week against Oakland was far from inspiring. He is another one that has a chance to move way up the list with only a handful of good games, but I just cannot justify taking him over any of the people ahead of him at this point.
22. Shaun Hill - Hill is sort of Ben Roethlisberger light to me. Do you realize he is 7-4 as a starter over the last two seasons? However, Roethlisberger ranks where he does because he has won two Superbowls and a huge percentage of his games. Hill is obviously not there yet and given his limited skills this seems like an appropriate place for him until he proves he belongs higher.
23. Marc Bulger - Bulger used to be one of the best quarterbacks in football, so what happened? His team fell apart all around him. Personally I think the talent is still in there somewhere and he would be able to show it, in a better environment. Since this list evaluates quarterbacks in a vacuum I think this is a fair place for him.
24. David Garrard - Garrard had a very impressive 2007 season but really has not done much otherwise. He is an asset when running the ball and has shown the ability to be an effective passer at times as well. Maybe he should rank higher but his mediocre play over the last year-plus just does not inspire confidence in me.
25. Jason Campbell - Campbell does not make many mistakes but often looks downright scared of taking any risks whatsoever. He has excellent tools but never puts them on display. Campbell's problems stem completely from the mental side of the game, but since he has not really improved at all in the last few seasons, I can't see how he belongs any higher than this.
26. Trent Edwards - Edwards has had a nice start to the season, but I have watched him play several times, and every time I am left unimpressed. He just does not seem to have enough ability to be a success without being a master of the subtleties and nuances of the game, and nothing he has shown so far makes me believe he ever will have that trait either. Still young enough to improve, but consider me skeptical.
27. Kerry Collins - In his earlier days, Collins proved that in a perfect situation he could be a great quarterback, but when things were less than ideal, he was never able to get it done. Now that he is older and does not have quite the same arm strength anymore, I think his ceiling as a passer is just incredibly low. I do not think he is capable of making big plays anymore, nor is he consistent.
28. Jake DelHomme - Has had a lot of success in his career, but always seemed to me like one of those guys that often chucked the ball up in the air and depended on his receivers to make a play far too often. It finally appears that this is coming back to haunt him and as a result I have lost all faith in his ability to win an important game. Maybe I'm wrong but I just really would not want him to be running my offense.
29. Byron Leftwich - Blessed with a rocket arm, but the slowest release in the game and the mobility of a redwood, Leftwich really needs to be in the right situation to have success. He has also proven to be a bit fragile over the years despite his toughness. The fact that the Jaguars chose Garrard (who is far from spectacular) over him is also telling in my mind, and while he might be Tampa Bay's best option, I would not want him to be my quarterback.
30. Brady Quinn - I was sort of on the Brady Quinn bandwagon coming into the year but my nose still has not recovered from the two stink bombs he has thrown out so far. In retrospect, maybe it is telling that Cleveland went so long to give him a shot despite the big contract and Derek Anderson's major struggles. He has had plenty of time to learn the game from the sidelines at this point but really has shown almost nothing on the field. Until he starts proving he can cut it in the NFL I see no reason for him to be higher on this list.
31. Jamarcus Russell - Similar to Quinn in that he has shown nothing in games to make me a believer. Do not be fooled by last year's statistics, almost all of his decent numbers were accumulated after his team was already out of the game. By the way, he has completed 35% of his passes so far this season.
32. Matthew Stafford - I will be the first to admit that I was not a big Stafford fan while he was in college. Despite the big arm his statistics were never really that impressive and I saw him make a lot of really poor decisions. I looked at him as a a bit of project in the NFL and now he is being thrown right into the fire. Maybe he will be good someday, but I am sure he is not right now.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
2009 All Underrated/Overrated teams
2009 All Underrated and All Overrated Team
Catcher
Underrated - Yadier Molina - We all know by now that he is a superb defensive catcher, probably the best in the game today. However, did you realize he's turning into a pretty decent hitter as well? He doesn't really have any power to speak of, but he currently sits at .364 with his OBP, not too shabby.
Overrated - Bengie Molina - It's an all Molina showing, unfortunately for Bengie. He's the exact opposite of his brother, using decent power to mask a .285 OBP. He also has lost a lot of ability behind the plate. Combine this with the fact that the team probably would have been better off playing Buster Posey down the stretch and you have the most overrated catcher in baseball.
First Base
Underrated - Derrek Lee - Lost in the misery of the Cubs' season is the fact that Lee is actually having a great year. For some perspective, he is ahead of Mark Teixeira in all three slash categories, posting 304/388/578 to date. While he is not quite the glove man his reputation would suggest, he is also still above average in the field as well.
Overrated - Russell Branyan - A lot of people have talked about the fine year Branyan is having, but it really has not been anything special. He's still in the bottom half of all first baseman in most every offensive category, and while it has been a good year for him, he is still just another guy.
Second Base
Underrated - Ben Zobrist - Yes, everybody knows he is having a great year, but few realize just how great a year it has been. Despite not playing quite as well down the stretch his OBP sits at .400, is slugging .530 and has been the best defensive second baseman in baseball during his time there. He's been as good as Chase Utley this year and significantly better than every other second baseman in baseball.
Overrated - Aaron Hill - Hill has some gaudy counting stats, 32 HR, 30 2B, 98 RBI, but most of those are inflated by his huge number of plate appearances. His OBP is 75 points lower than Zobrist, his slugging is 50 points lower and he is not in the same class defensively, yet most people seem to think he is actually having a better season.
Third Base
Underrated - Chone Figgins - A player who has often found himself on the other end of the spectrum, his outstanding year has been mostly overshadowed by Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales. Figgins' .400 OBP and 42 steals have helped fueled a powerful Angels lineup and his defense has been the equal of anyone in baseball.
Overrated - Brandon Inge - The Aaron Hill of 3B, Inge made the all-star team and despite not doing anything in the second half, still sits at an impressive 27 HR's. However, he sacrifices everything else for power, swinging from his heels and racking up massive strikeout totals. His excellent defense is really the only thing preventing him from being near replacement level.
Shortstop
Underrated - Yunel Escobar - Often the subject of trade rumors, I do not understand why the Braves seem so anxious to get rid of their extremely talented young shortstop. He's been nearly as valuable this year as Troy Tulowitzki who is often called one of the best shortstops in baseball.
Overrated - Rafael Furcal - Furcal really has not been an above average player since 2006, yet has still spent essentially the entire year batting at the top of the Dodger lineup, while Matt Kemp has often hit 8th.
Left Field
Underrated - Denard Span - Mauer and Morneau get all the talk, but the Twins have quietly developed themselves a potential great leadoff hitter in Span. He has an OBP around 390, just enough power to keep a pitcher honest and the speed to be dangerous on the bases
Overrated - Jason Bay - Bay is actually a very good player, however everybody seems to think he is the equal of Matt Holliday and that they will get a fairly equal payday in the off-season. While Bay and Holliday are comparable hitters, Holliday is a very good fielder in left and Bay has essentially been a DH masquerading as a LF for several seasons now.
Center Field
Underrated - Franklin Gutierrez - This should probably be Matt Kemp who has been the best CF in baseball this year, or Shane Victorino who was the third best, but Gutierrez is the reason I started writing this. He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball by a lot and while his batting numbers will not wow anybody, he has been one of the most clutch hitters in baseball this year, shown by his +3.38 WPA, which is 7th among AL hitters. Clutch performance may not carry over from one season to the next, but Gutierrez has certainly gotten it done this season.
Overrated - B.J. Upton - Yes his potential is off the charts and yes he is very good in the field, but Upton has been the worst hitting centerfielder in baseball this season. He has not hit for power, or average and has not drawn many walks. Upton's season is a big reason why the Rays fell short this year and few seem to have noticed.
Right Field
Underrated - Justin Upton - This could easily be many other people including Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Swisher or Andre Ethier, but I'm giving it to the person who was the best right fielder this year, 21-year-old Justin Upton. He hits for power, he hits for average, the plate discipline is coming around and he's a great defensive player. Just imagine how good he'll be when he's in his prime.
Overrated - Nick Markakis - Markakis came into the season with a ton of hype but is in the bottom half of right fielder in OPS and was below average with the glove this year. After showing constant development over the last few seasons, Markakis had a very bad year. Maybe the constant losing in Baltimore is getting to him or maybe it was a fluke, but he was a huge disappointment this season.
Starting Pitcher
Underrated -
Javier Vazquez - Second in the NL in K's, ERA right at 3.00, nobody notices.
Wandy Rodriguez - An even better ERA than Vazquez, yet somehow even less publicity. Rodriguez is currently sitting at 2.77.
Jon Lester - Forget Beckett, Lester has been the ace of the Boston staff for a couple of years now. He is third in the AL in K's and has posted a 3.29 ERA, improbably for lefty pitching at Fenway.
Scott Feldman - Don't say the Rangers have no pitching, Feldman has posted a 3.31 ERA this season in Arlington's hitter haven.
Matt Cain - Cain has been completely overshadowed by Lincecum, but Cain's ERA (2.71) is fourth in the NL.
Overrated -
Chad Billingsley - Thought of as one of the best young starters in baseball, Billingsley's ERA is around 4.00 and he has looked particularly ordinary in the second half.
Roy Oswalt - Former perennial Cy Young candidate has seen his ERA go up for four straight seasons and it is now over 4.
Mike Pelfrey - Still has never learned to throw anything other than a fastball and is frankly, barely a major league pitcher at this point.
Johan Santana - Even before going on the DL, Santana was posting the 12th best ERA in the league, while playing half his games in PETCO east, a.k.a. Citifield. Time will tell whether his relatively poor performance was due to injury or the start of his decline.
Josh Beckett - Currently has the 15th best ERA in the NL, behind Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Niemenn and Mark Buehrle
Relief Pitcher
Underrated -
Mike Wuertz - A 2.85 ERA to go along with 93 K's in 72.2 IP, he has been the perfect complement to breakout closer Andrew Bailey
David Aardsma - It is hard for a closer to be underrated, but Aardsma pulls it off with his 2.06 ERA. The Fact that he is 35/39 in save opportunities does not hurt either
Luke Gregorson - Gregorson has come out of nowhere to become the anchor in San Diego's pen. His 2.81 ERA is impressive, but his peripherals, 82 K in 67 IP and only 2 home runs allowed, are even more so.
Overrated -
Brian Fuentes - He leads the league in saves, but has actually blown more than anyone other than Brad Lidge and J.P. Howell
Bobby Jenks - Still tends to get grouped up with the upper-tier closers despite no numbers to support that assumption
Daniel Bard - Bard is very good but there has been a lot of talk about the Red Sox trading away Papelbon and handing the closer's role over to Bard, I think people spreading that rumor probably need to calm down a bit, he is not nearly at that level right now.
Catcher
Underrated - Yadier Molina - We all know by now that he is a superb defensive catcher, probably the best in the game today. However, did you realize he's turning into a pretty decent hitter as well? He doesn't really have any power to speak of, but he currently sits at .364 with his OBP, not too shabby.
Overrated - Bengie Molina - It's an all Molina showing, unfortunately for Bengie. He's the exact opposite of his brother, using decent power to mask a .285 OBP. He also has lost a lot of ability behind the plate. Combine this with the fact that the team probably would have been better off playing Buster Posey down the stretch and you have the most overrated catcher in baseball.
First Base
Underrated - Derrek Lee - Lost in the misery of the Cubs' season is the fact that Lee is actually having a great year. For some perspective, he is ahead of Mark Teixeira in all three slash categories, posting 304/388/578 to date. While he is not quite the glove man his reputation would suggest, he is also still above average in the field as well.
Overrated - Russell Branyan - A lot of people have talked about the fine year Branyan is having, but it really has not been anything special. He's still in the bottom half of all first baseman in most every offensive category, and while it has been a good year for him, he is still just another guy.
Second Base
Underrated - Ben Zobrist - Yes, everybody knows he is having a great year, but few realize just how great a year it has been. Despite not playing quite as well down the stretch his OBP sits at .400, is slugging .530 and has been the best defensive second baseman in baseball during his time there. He's been as good as Chase Utley this year and significantly better than every other second baseman in baseball.
Overrated - Aaron Hill - Hill has some gaudy counting stats, 32 HR, 30 2B, 98 RBI, but most of those are inflated by his huge number of plate appearances. His OBP is 75 points lower than Zobrist, his slugging is 50 points lower and he is not in the same class defensively, yet most people seem to think he is actually having a better season.
Third Base
Underrated - Chone Figgins - A player who has often found himself on the other end of the spectrum, his outstanding year has been mostly overshadowed by Bobby Abreu and Kendry Morales. Figgins' .400 OBP and 42 steals have helped fueled a powerful Angels lineup and his defense has been the equal of anyone in baseball.
Overrated - Brandon Inge - The Aaron Hill of 3B, Inge made the all-star team and despite not doing anything in the second half, still sits at an impressive 27 HR's. However, he sacrifices everything else for power, swinging from his heels and racking up massive strikeout totals. His excellent defense is really the only thing preventing him from being near replacement level.
Shortstop
Underrated - Yunel Escobar - Often the subject of trade rumors, I do not understand why the Braves seem so anxious to get rid of their extremely talented young shortstop. He's been nearly as valuable this year as Troy Tulowitzki who is often called one of the best shortstops in baseball.
Overrated - Rafael Furcal - Furcal really has not been an above average player since 2006, yet has still spent essentially the entire year batting at the top of the Dodger lineup, while Matt Kemp has often hit 8th.
Left Field
Underrated - Denard Span - Mauer and Morneau get all the talk, but the Twins have quietly developed themselves a potential great leadoff hitter in Span. He has an OBP around 390, just enough power to keep a pitcher honest and the speed to be dangerous on the bases
Overrated - Jason Bay - Bay is actually a very good player, however everybody seems to think he is the equal of Matt Holliday and that they will get a fairly equal payday in the off-season. While Bay and Holliday are comparable hitters, Holliday is a very good fielder in left and Bay has essentially been a DH masquerading as a LF for several seasons now.
Center Field
Underrated - Franklin Gutierrez - This should probably be Matt Kemp who has been the best CF in baseball this year, or Shane Victorino who was the third best, but Gutierrez is the reason I started writing this. He is the best defensive outfielder in baseball by a lot and while his batting numbers will not wow anybody, he has been one of the most clutch hitters in baseball this year, shown by his +3.38 WPA, which is 7th among AL hitters. Clutch performance may not carry over from one season to the next, but Gutierrez has certainly gotten it done this season.
Overrated - B.J. Upton - Yes his potential is off the charts and yes he is very good in the field, but Upton has been the worst hitting centerfielder in baseball this season. He has not hit for power, or average and has not drawn many walks. Upton's season is a big reason why the Rays fell short this year and few seem to have noticed.
Right Field
Underrated - Justin Upton - This could easily be many other people including Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Swisher or Andre Ethier, but I'm giving it to the person who was the best right fielder this year, 21-year-old Justin Upton. He hits for power, he hits for average, the plate discipline is coming around and he's a great defensive player. Just imagine how good he'll be when he's in his prime.
Overrated - Nick Markakis - Markakis came into the season with a ton of hype but is in the bottom half of right fielder in OPS and was below average with the glove this year. After showing constant development over the last few seasons, Markakis had a very bad year. Maybe the constant losing in Baltimore is getting to him or maybe it was a fluke, but he was a huge disappointment this season.
Starting Pitcher
Underrated -
Javier Vazquez - Second in the NL in K's, ERA right at 3.00, nobody notices.
Wandy Rodriguez - An even better ERA than Vazquez, yet somehow even less publicity. Rodriguez is currently sitting at 2.77.
Jon Lester - Forget Beckett, Lester has been the ace of the Boston staff for a couple of years now. He is third in the AL in K's and has posted a 3.29 ERA, improbably for lefty pitching at Fenway.
Scott Feldman - Don't say the Rangers have no pitching, Feldman has posted a 3.31 ERA this season in Arlington's hitter haven.
Matt Cain - Cain has been completely overshadowed by Lincecum, but Cain's ERA (2.71) is fourth in the NL.
Overrated -
Chad Billingsley - Thought of as one of the best young starters in baseball, Billingsley's ERA is around 4.00 and he has looked particularly ordinary in the second half.
Roy Oswalt - Former perennial Cy Young candidate has seen his ERA go up for four straight seasons and it is now over 4.
Mike Pelfrey - Still has never learned to throw anything other than a fastball and is frankly, barely a major league pitcher at this point.
Johan Santana - Even before going on the DL, Santana was posting the 12th best ERA in the league, while playing half his games in PETCO east, a.k.a. Citifield. Time will tell whether his relatively poor performance was due to injury or the start of his decline.
Josh Beckett - Currently has the 15th best ERA in the NL, behind Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Niemenn and Mark Buehrle
Relief Pitcher
Underrated -
Mike Wuertz - A 2.85 ERA to go along with 93 K's in 72.2 IP, he has been the perfect complement to breakout closer Andrew Bailey
David Aardsma - It is hard for a closer to be underrated, but Aardsma pulls it off with his 2.06 ERA. The Fact that he is 35/39 in save opportunities does not hurt either
Luke Gregorson - Gregorson has come out of nowhere to become the anchor in San Diego's pen. His 2.81 ERA is impressive, but his peripherals, 82 K in 67 IP and only 2 home runs allowed, are even more so.
Overrated -
Brian Fuentes - He leads the league in saves, but has actually blown more than anyone other than Brad Lidge and J.P. Howell
Bobby Jenks - Still tends to get grouped up with the upper-tier closers despite no numbers to support that assumption
Daniel Bard - Bard is very good but there has been a lot of talk about the Red Sox trading away Papelbon and handing the closer's role over to Bard, I think people spreading that rumor probably need to calm down a bit, he is not nearly at that level right now.
Monday, August 3, 2009
The Royals are Awful
It probably is not news to anyone that the Royals are awful, and have been for a long time. But why? Is it bad luck, bad work from the general manager, players underachieving or a failure to develop good young players? Well, it's time to take a more detailed look at the players and just why this team is so terrible, and maybe, how to make them a bit better.
Defense - First I want to talk about defense. Recently Kansas City GM Dayton Moore made some comments about not understanding or trusting modern defensive metrics and then also traded for known butcher at shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt, because of his defensive ability. This made me think that perhaps the royals as a whole have acquired players that were defensive liabilities without even realizing it. We will skip catcher for now since catcher defense is actually quite difficult to evaluate from afar, however, let's check all the other positions. I will be using UZR/150 and +/- from The Fielding Bible on this season for the purposes of my evaluation.
1B - Has been mostly manned by Billy Butler (-3.2 UZR/150, 0 +/-) but occasionally by Mike Jacobs (2.0, 0). Butler has been a little below average while Jacobs has been a tiny bit above. Nothing ground breaking here, the Royals defense at first has been very close to average.
2B - Has been almost exclusively played by Alberto Callaspo (-11, -18). Callaspo has been dreadful at second base, in fact The Fielding Bible ranks him 35th among all second baseman on the season, an impressive accomplishment when there are only 30 teams in the league.
3B - Has been mostly played by Mark Teahen (-7.8, -6) but Alex Gordon (12, +1) has been back there since returning from the DL. Gordon appears to be fine, his sample size this year is small but past seasons indicate he is probably an average third baseman. Teahen has been well below average and his past seasons indicate that is his true level, meaning he probably should not play third again unless it is an emergency.
SS - Shortstop has been a revolving door for the Royals this year with 269.1 innings from Mike Aviles (-9.9, -1), 227.2 from Willie Bloomquist (-13.8, -3), 166 from Tony Pena Jr. (-13.2, -2), and now 140 from Yuniesky Betancourt (-15.9, -18). Wow. Betancourt's numbers are for the entire season, not just his time with the Royals, but still. Where to begin? Every single one of these players really has no business playing shortstop in the majors. It is possible to get away with this kind of defense if you are playing an elite hitter at shortstop, but not only are all of these players poor fielders, they are all equally terrible with the bat. We will come back to that however when we talk about offense.
LF - Has been played almost completely by David Dejesus (15.6, +5). He is an above average left fielder, the first person we have found on the team that is an asset with the glove.
CF - Early in the year centerfield was played by Coco Crisp (18.5, +15) but since his injury has been patrolled by Mitch Maier (5.1, +1). Losing Crisp has been a big blow as he is one of very few true difference makers in the field, but Maier has been fine. Maier was actually drafted as a catcher so his efforts in CF are actually quite impressive as well. Willie Bloomquist has also logged some innings in center and was about as effective there as he was at shortstop.
RF - Has been mostly Jose Guillen's position (-33, -21). This is another, WOW. That is shockingly awful. Guillen has probably cost the Royals somewhere between 10 and 17 runs with his glove alone in right field this year. Teahen and Bloomquist have also spent a bit of time out there and somehow have been just as bad.
Overview: What we have here is a team currently playing one above average fielder, three average ones, and three really terrible ones. Overall it is pretty obvious that this team is really hurting itself in the field and really has to do something about right field, second base and shortstop. This type of defense from from three players who are responsible for fielding nearly half the balls put in play is completely unacceptable.
Pitching - We have already established that the Royals pitching is not being helped out very much by its defense, particularly on ground balls, so when evaluating their staff it is important to take this into account, and because of that I will be listing their FIP rather than ERA. With that in mind, let's take a look at the key figures on the mound for the Royals.
Zack Greinke (2.15 FIP) - Greinke is having an outstanding season. He has been a very good pitcher since 2007 but appears to be making the proverbial leap this year, and at 25-years-old it is happening almost right on schedule
Gil Meche (4.19) - Meche has been a solid mid rotation starter for the Royals since he signed and although he has not been quite as good this year, and is fairly expensive, Meche is still an asset for this team.
Brian Bannister (3.96) - One of the most cerebral pitchers in baseball, Bannister gets the most out of his ordinary repertoire. He is a perfect player for the Royals, durable, inexpensive and effective.
Kyle Davies (5.69) - A once hot prospect, Davies has not had any success in the majors and time has probably run out on him become an effective major-leaguer. It is time to move on from him or try him in the bullpen, and the Royals seem to have started to figure this out.
Luke Hochever (4.55) - Hochever is not going to turn into the star some thought he might be out of college, but he has been good enough and looks to be part of the rotation for a long time.
Bruce Chen (5.35) and Sidney Ponson (4.68) - These two have been their replacements for Davies, not exactly inspiring but I guess you could do worse.
Evaluation of Starters: This is actually a fairly encouraging sign for the Royals. They have 4/5ths of a rotation established and one of them is a borderline superstar. They need to find a permanent solution for that fifth spot and maybe get a little more depth in the case of an injury, although having Chen, Ponson and DiNardo as options 6-8 is not terrible. Overall this is pretty good.
Joakim Soria (2.21) - Soria is an excellent closer, almost too good for a team in such dire straits.
Ron Mahay/Kyle Farnsworth (4.72, 2.80) - The primary lefty/righty setup options for the Royals are nothing special, and probably a bit more expensive than a team like this should have.
Juan Cruz, Robinson Tejeda, John Bale, Jamey Wright - Out of this group of mostly anonymous middle relievers I can only see Cruz as a legitimate long term fixture in a bullpen. Tejeda has a good arm but massive control problems, while Bale and Wright are just a couple of guys who can occasionally get batters out.
Evaluation of Bullpen: Soria is an absolute stud. After that things get less encouraging. Fixing a bullpen is not the hardest thing to do in the world, although it might take the Royals a bit longer than most teams for reasons that I will show when I talk about their minor league system.
Offense - I'm not going to lie. This is not going to be pretty. The Royals offense is bad, as everybody knows, but it is almost hard to realize just how bad it is until it is broken down by position. Well, here it is, in all the gory details.
C - Miguel Olivo (234/267/456) and John Buck (227/301/436) - Olivo's OBP really is .267, which is such a surprising number I looked it up on multiple sites just to make sure. Buck is not a whole better, but he is in fact better. Nonetheless the Royals seem to continue to give Olivo the bulk of the playing time. There is nothing in his history to show he's even an average defensive catcher and Buck has always had the reputation of a solid glove man; I'm not really sure what is going on here.
1B - Bill Butler (.286/342/453) and Mike Jacobs (216/292/408) - Butler is young enough and shown enough ability that he should continue to play every day. Jacobs however is at best one-half of a platoon and most likely not even that. Butler's production at the moment is not exactly ideal for first base but he should be the least of their worries at this time. The fact that he's learned to play average defense at first is also encouraging.
2B - Alberto Callaspo (298/346/452) - Callaspo has actually be Butler's equal at the bat and that is a good sign considering he plays second base. Offensively, he's very solid, however we have already seen how brutal Callaspo is with the glove. As a result of this he is still a below average player, but still a good ways from replacement level.
3B - Alex Gordon (183/319/233) and Mark Teahen (287/340/434) - Gordon's stats this year are mostly meaningless since he has been on the DL for the vast majority of the season, and given his 2008 performance and pedigree he should continue to receive the bulk of the playing time. Teahen is not that much of a hitter, and as we have seen, not so hot with the glove either. His place is on the bench as a utility player and nothing more.
SS - Mike Aviles (183/208/250), Tony Pena Jr. (098/132/118), Willie Bloomquist (266/311/367) and Yuniesky Betancourt (224/250/296) - Yikes. This group is worth with the bats than they are with their gloves! Aviles was good last year but his track record before that was spotty at best. Betancourt and Bloomquist have proven over the last few years they cannot hit and Pena has proven that he has no business being in the major leagues in any capacity. Something has to be done about this position immediately.
LF - David DeJesus (259/324/409) - Dejesus is not having a very good year for him, but he has established himself as a slightly below average hitter for left field. However, when combined with his above average defense, he is at least a usable player. An upgrade would be nice but it is not a priority.
CF - Coco Crisp (228/336/378) and Mitch Maier (227/304/327) - Crisp is a better hitter than this small sample has shown and is spectacular with the glove. He is firmly entrenched as the team's starter and he should be. Maier has not been much of a hitter, but he has shown some ability in the minors and looks like he might be a solid fourth outfielder with some more experience.
RF - Jose Guillen (245/317/371) - Guillen has been a poor hitter since his first day in Kansas City. Before being signed he had a couple of good seasons sandwiched around a bunch of pretty mediocre ones and his performance should not really be too surprising.
Evaluation of the lineup - What the Royals have is several bad players and a few average ones with nobody better than that. This requires a massive overhaul from top to bottom. Shortstop, catcher and right field in particular need to be addressed.
The Farm - Coming into the season the Royals had an average but improving farm system. Most of their talent lied in the lower minor leagues and therefore was not expected to contribute for awhile. That is still the case however a couple of their players have gone backward and the system is not looking as strong as it did before the season started. They also traded away Daniel Cortes, one of their better pitching prospect, for Yuniesky Betancourt.
Hitters
Mike Moustakas 3B - Moustakas was drafted second overall in 2007 and showed good power and a sound hitting approach at the plate in 2008. His defense at third needed work but he has a strong arm and there is hope he can be an adequate defender. Moving him to first is not really an option because Eric Hosmer (we'll get to him in a minute) plays there. This yea Moustakas' offense has fallen apart however, he's hitting just 254/294/420 in high-A. He is still very young and has a very live bat so no need to panic yet, but it is a red flag.
Eric Hosmer 1B - Hosmer went third overall in 2008 based on the projection of his powerful bat. Well, in his first season he has shown very little power, but a mature hitting approach i low-A. He was recently moved up to high-A despite not really hitting that well in low-A. It is a curious move and I am looking forward to see how it works, although I will admit, it is not something I would have done.
David Lough OF - Lough has been the Royals best position prospect this season, hitting over .300 with power at both high-A and AA. He can probably handle centerfield but might be a better fit in left. He is still pretty raw because he played multiple sports in college and high school and even though he's 23, Lough probably needs to be in the minors until at least opening day 2011.
Evaluation of Hitters - Those are the only offensive players that I can see in the system to be excited about right now. As you can see, none of them play the positions where the biggest needs exist. In fact, they actually all play positions where the Royals are already fairly strong. However, given that none of them are that close to the majors this is not an issue, yet.
Pitchers
Aaron Crow - Crow was drafted 10th overall in 2008 but did not sign. The Royals took him took him 12th overall this season and while they have not signed him yet, they are expected to. While he has not thrown an inning in affiliated ball yet and will be 23 in November, he has a high ceiling and should be a fixture in their rotation for a long time soon. He has an above average fastball and breaking pitch to go with a below average changeup. He should probably be in the rotation by opening day 2011.
Danny Duffy - The 20-year-old lefty has three average pitches and is enjoying a fine season in high-A after dominating low-A last season. He will probably begin next year in AA with an eye on joining the rotation in 2011. As a lefty who gets groundballs and can also record the occasional strikeout, Duffy should develop into a solid mid-rotation starter.
Tim Melville - At one point considered the best prep pitcher in the 2008 class, Melville struggled his senior season, but the Royals took him in the 4th round and gave him 1.25 million to sign. At a lean 6'5 and with a very smooth delivery, Melville is certainly looks the part of a pitcher and his low to mid 90s heater is an above average pitch. He also has an above average curve and serviceable changeup. Melville is enjoying a solid but unspectacular debut in low-A.
Mike Montgomery - Montgomery was drafted in the supplemental first round of 2009 and has been very good in low-A this year. He recently earned a promotion to high-A due to his 2.27 ERA and only one HR allowed in 58 innings. A former basketball player the 6'5 Montgomery is a tremendous athlete for a pitcher but is still growing into his frame. His fastball sits in the low 90s and at this point his changeup is ahead of his breaking ball. Montgomery has the highest ceiling of any Royals pitching prospect, but still has a long way to go.
Evaluation of Pitchers - The Royals actually have a few more solid pitching prospects, but these four are the cream of the crop. None of them are exactly knocking down the door for the majors however. I do think that pitching will eventually be the strength for this team. While normal attrition tells us not all of these pitchers will pan out, none of them have any glaring red flags and there are several other players already in the system that may surprise down the road.
How to fix the Disaster
First of all, I think a little bit of realism is in order. First, the group of players currently on the major league roster is not going to win anything. Second, none of the best prospects in the Royals system are close to the majors so there is no help immediately on the way. As a result of these two factors, it seems obvious to me that Kansas City will not be a competitive team until 2012 at the earliest. It is my belief that the team should try and aim for that year as their first "bounce back" season with the goal of winning a division title in 2013. That may seem like a long way from now, but this team is in such a deep hole I do not see another choice. Here is how I would do it.
Phase 1: Trade any player of any value for high-ceiling prospects who are not yet knocking on the door of the majors. You do not want players about to reach the majors because they are more expensive and right now it is imperative to get max value out of your few resources.
First of all you are going to have to trade Greinke for a huge haul. Greinke is relatively inexpensive, young and under team control for several more years so he should fetch a massive haul. The Royals must look for up the middle assets, particularly at catcher and at shortstop, since those players are the hardest to find. Call up Tampa Bay and ask for a package based around Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings and Reid Brignac. Call the Indians and tell them to build around Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall or the Giants with Posey and Adrianza. For Greinke you should be able to get back two premier hitting prospects and at least 1 premier pitcher plus a couple of lower tier prospects.
Secondly you will have to trade Joakim Soria. After Greinke he is your most valuable asset, and a team that is going to lose does not need an elite closer. Given his age and price, Soria should also fetch a pretty good haul. Maybe the Brewers will part with Alcides Escobar and Brett Lawrie for him when Hoffman is not around anymore. Again it is important to focus on getting hitters, particularly up the middle, defensively sound players if possible.
Finally you should be able to get a couple of mid level players for Gil Meche, Coco Crisp, Alberto Callaspo, David Dejesus, Kyle Farnsworth and Ron Mahay. Do not look for that much in return, again focus on getting some higher ceiling guys if possible, but anything that could conceivably be useful a few years from now would be better than any of these guys long term.
Phase 2: Stop drafting first baseman or players with defensive issues in the top five picks of the draft. Defense matters! Do not just take the player with best bat, take the best all around player. This year was an odd one with very few solid position player prospects available at the time of the draft and Crow was a solid pick, but looking back at past years some criticism is in order. In 2008 they took Eric Hosmer when they really should have taken Buster Posey or Gordon Beckham. In 2007 they took Mike Moustakas when they probably should have taken Matt Wieters. In 2006 it was Hochever over Longoria. I am not opposed to drafting pitchers, but when drafting in the top 3 (as they did these 3 seasons) the past has shown that drafting a hitter, particularly one at a key position on the diamond is the right way to go.
Phase 3: Over the next couple of seasons do not sign any long term contracts. Sign veteran stop gaps to short, cheap deals and then if possible, trade them at the deadline to teams that need them for prospects. It is also important to sign veterans who will provide a good example for young players, that means hard workers who have no problem with being mentors. The key here is to not be on the hook for large amounts of money when your prospects start to reach the majors. This way you can splurge on bigger free agents to fill in that gaps or sign your young players to long term deals.
The Royals are a mess for many reasons and a long way from being competitive. I believe that following the steps I have outline would put them on the right track; they certainly would not be doing any worse than they are now.
Defense - First I want to talk about defense. Recently Kansas City GM Dayton Moore made some comments about not understanding or trusting modern defensive metrics and then also traded for known butcher at shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt, because of his defensive ability. This made me think that perhaps the royals as a whole have acquired players that were defensive liabilities without even realizing it. We will skip catcher for now since catcher defense is actually quite difficult to evaluate from afar, however, let's check all the other positions. I will be using UZR/150 and +/- from The Fielding Bible on this season for the purposes of my evaluation.
1B - Has been mostly manned by Billy Butler (-3.2 UZR/150, 0 +/-) but occasionally by Mike Jacobs (2.0, 0). Butler has been a little below average while Jacobs has been a tiny bit above. Nothing ground breaking here, the Royals defense at first has been very close to average.
2B - Has been almost exclusively played by Alberto Callaspo (-11, -18). Callaspo has been dreadful at second base, in fact The Fielding Bible ranks him 35th among all second baseman on the season, an impressive accomplishment when there are only 30 teams in the league.
3B - Has been mostly played by Mark Teahen (-7.8, -6) but Alex Gordon (12, +1) has been back there since returning from the DL. Gordon appears to be fine, his sample size this year is small but past seasons indicate he is probably an average third baseman. Teahen has been well below average and his past seasons indicate that is his true level, meaning he probably should not play third again unless it is an emergency.
SS - Shortstop has been a revolving door for the Royals this year with 269.1 innings from Mike Aviles (-9.9, -1), 227.2 from Willie Bloomquist (-13.8, -3), 166 from Tony Pena Jr. (-13.2, -2), and now 140 from Yuniesky Betancourt (-15.9, -18). Wow. Betancourt's numbers are for the entire season, not just his time with the Royals, but still. Where to begin? Every single one of these players really has no business playing shortstop in the majors. It is possible to get away with this kind of defense if you are playing an elite hitter at shortstop, but not only are all of these players poor fielders, they are all equally terrible with the bat. We will come back to that however when we talk about offense.
LF - Has been played almost completely by David Dejesus (15.6, +5). He is an above average left fielder, the first person we have found on the team that is an asset with the glove.
CF - Early in the year centerfield was played by Coco Crisp (18.5, +15) but since his injury has been patrolled by Mitch Maier (5.1, +1). Losing Crisp has been a big blow as he is one of very few true difference makers in the field, but Maier has been fine. Maier was actually drafted as a catcher so his efforts in CF are actually quite impressive as well. Willie Bloomquist has also logged some innings in center and was about as effective there as he was at shortstop.
RF - Has been mostly Jose Guillen's position (-33, -21). This is another, WOW. That is shockingly awful. Guillen has probably cost the Royals somewhere between 10 and 17 runs with his glove alone in right field this year. Teahen and Bloomquist have also spent a bit of time out there and somehow have been just as bad.
Overview: What we have here is a team currently playing one above average fielder, three average ones, and three really terrible ones. Overall it is pretty obvious that this team is really hurting itself in the field and really has to do something about right field, second base and shortstop. This type of defense from from three players who are responsible for fielding nearly half the balls put in play is completely unacceptable.
Pitching - We have already established that the Royals pitching is not being helped out very much by its defense, particularly on ground balls, so when evaluating their staff it is important to take this into account, and because of that I will be listing their FIP rather than ERA. With that in mind, let's take a look at the key figures on the mound for the Royals.
Zack Greinke (2.15 FIP) - Greinke is having an outstanding season. He has been a very good pitcher since 2007 but appears to be making the proverbial leap this year, and at 25-years-old it is happening almost right on schedule
Gil Meche (4.19) - Meche has been a solid mid rotation starter for the Royals since he signed and although he has not been quite as good this year, and is fairly expensive, Meche is still an asset for this team.
Brian Bannister (3.96) - One of the most cerebral pitchers in baseball, Bannister gets the most out of his ordinary repertoire. He is a perfect player for the Royals, durable, inexpensive and effective.
Kyle Davies (5.69) - A once hot prospect, Davies has not had any success in the majors and time has probably run out on him become an effective major-leaguer. It is time to move on from him or try him in the bullpen, and the Royals seem to have started to figure this out.
Luke Hochever (4.55) - Hochever is not going to turn into the star some thought he might be out of college, but he has been good enough and looks to be part of the rotation for a long time.
Bruce Chen (5.35) and Sidney Ponson (4.68) - These two have been their replacements for Davies, not exactly inspiring but I guess you could do worse.
Evaluation of Starters: This is actually a fairly encouraging sign for the Royals. They have 4/5ths of a rotation established and one of them is a borderline superstar. They need to find a permanent solution for that fifth spot and maybe get a little more depth in the case of an injury, although having Chen, Ponson and DiNardo as options 6-8 is not terrible. Overall this is pretty good.
Joakim Soria (2.21) - Soria is an excellent closer, almost too good for a team in such dire straits.
Ron Mahay/Kyle Farnsworth (4.72, 2.80) - The primary lefty/righty setup options for the Royals are nothing special, and probably a bit more expensive than a team like this should have.
Juan Cruz, Robinson Tejeda, John Bale, Jamey Wright - Out of this group of mostly anonymous middle relievers I can only see Cruz as a legitimate long term fixture in a bullpen. Tejeda has a good arm but massive control problems, while Bale and Wright are just a couple of guys who can occasionally get batters out.
Evaluation of Bullpen: Soria is an absolute stud. After that things get less encouraging. Fixing a bullpen is not the hardest thing to do in the world, although it might take the Royals a bit longer than most teams for reasons that I will show when I talk about their minor league system.
Offense - I'm not going to lie. This is not going to be pretty. The Royals offense is bad, as everybody knows, but it is almost hard to realize just how bad it is until it is broken down by position. Well, here it is, in all the gory details.
C - Miguel Olivo (234/267/456) and John Buck (227/301/436) - Olivo's OBP really is .267, which is such a surprising number I looked it up on multiple sites just to make sure. Buck is not a whole better, but he is in fact better. Nonetheless the Royals seem to continue to give Olivo the bulk of the playing time. There is nothing in his history to show he's even an average defensive catcher and Buck has always had the reputation of a solid glove man; I'm not really sure what is going on here.
1B - Bill Butler (.286/342/453) and Mike Jacobs (216/292/408) - Butler is young enough and shown enough ability that he should continue to play every day. Jacobs however is at best one-half of a platoon and most likely not even that. Butler's production at the moment is not exactly ideal for first base but he should be the least of their worries at this time. The fact that he's learned to play average defense at first is also encouraging.
2B - Alberto Callaspo (298/346/452) - Callaspo has actually be Butler's equal at the bat and that is a good sign considering he plays second base. Offensively, he's very solid, however we have already seen how brutal Callaspo is with the glove. As a result of this he is still a below average player, but still a good ways from replacement level.
3B - Alex Gordon (183/319/233) and Mark Teahen (287/340/434) - Gordon's stats this year are mostly meaningless since he has been on the DL for the vast majority of the season, and given his 2008 performance and pedigree he should continue to receive the bulk of the playing time. Teahen is not that much of a hitter, and as we have seen, not so hot with the glove either. His place is on the bench as a utility player and nothing more.
SS - Mike Aviles (183/208/250), Tony Pena Jr. (098/132/118), Willie Bloomquist (266/311/367) and Yuniesky Betancourt (224/250/296) - Yikes. This group is worth with the bats than they are with their gloves! Aviles was good last year but his track record before that was spotty at best. Betancourt and Bloomquist have proven over the last few years they cannot hit and Pena has proven that he has no business being in the major leagues in any capacity. Something has to be done about this position immediately.
LF - David DeJesus (259/324/409) - Dejesus is not having a very good year for him, but he has established himself as a slightly below average hitter for left field. However, when combined with his above average defense, he is at least a usable player. An upgrade would be nice but it is not a priority.
CF - Coco Crisp (228/336/378) and Mitch Maier (227/304/327) - Crisp is a better hitter than this small sample has shown and is spectacular with the glove. He is firmly entrenched as the team's starter and he should be. Maier has not been much of a hitter, but he has shown some ability in the minors and looks like he might be a solid fourth outfielder with some more experience.
RF - Jose Guillen (245/317/371) - Guillen has been a poor hitter since his first day in Kansas City. Before being signed he had a couple of good seasons sandwiched around a bunch of pretty mediocre ones and his performance should not really be too surprising.
Evaluation of the lineup - What the Royals have is several bad players and a few average ones with nobody better than that. This requires a massive overhaul from top to bottom. Shortstop, catcher and right field in particular need to be addressed.
The Farm - Coming into the season the Royals had an average but improving farm system. Most of their talent lied in the lower minor leagues and therefore was not expected to contribute for awhile. That is still the case however a couple of their players have gone backward and the system is not looking as strong as it did before the season started. They also traded away Daniel Cortes, one of their better pitching prospect, for Yuniesky Betancourt.
Hitters
Mike Moustakas 3B - Moustakas was drafted second overall in 2007 and showed good power and a sound hitting approach at the plate in 2008. His defense at third needed work but he has a strong arm and there is hope he can be an adequate defender. Moving him to first is not really an option because Eric Hosmer (we'll get to him in a minute) plays there. This yea Moustakas' offense has fallen apart however, he's hitting just 254/294/420 in high-A. He is still very young and has a very live bat so no need to panic yet, but it is a red flag.
Eric Hosmer 1B - Hosmer went third overall in 2008 based on the projection of his powerful bat. Well, in his first season he has shown very little power, but a mature hitting approach i low-A. He was recently moved up to high-A despite not really hitting that well in low-A. It is a curious move and I am looking forward to see how it works, although I will admit, it is not something I would have done.
David Lough OF - Lough has been the Royals best position prospect this season, hitting over .300 with power at both high-A and AA. He can probably handle centerfield but might be a better fit in left. He is still pretty raw because he played multiple sports in college and high school and even though he's 23, Lough probably needs to be in the minors until at least opening day 2011.
Evaluation of Hitters - Those are the only offensive players that I can see in the system to be excited about right now. As you can see, none of them play the positions where the biggest needs exist. In fact, they actually all play positions where the Royals are already fairly strong. However, given that none of them are that close to the majors this is not an issue, yet.
Pitchers
Aaron Crow - Crow was drafted 10th overall in 2008 but did not sign. The Royals took him took him 12th overall this season and while they have not signed him yet, they are expected to. While he has not thrown an inning in affiliated ball yet and will be 23 in November, he has a high ceiling and should be a fixture in their rotation for a long time soon. He has an above average fastball and breaking pitch to go with a below average changeup. He should probably be in the rotation by opening day 2011.
Danny Duffy - The 20-year-old lefty has three average pitches and is enjoying a fine season in high-A after dominating low-A last season. He will probably begin next year in AA with an eye on joining the rotation in 2011. As a lefty who gets groundballs and can also record the occasional strikeout, Duffy should develop into a solid mid-rotation starter.
Tim Melville - At one point considered the best prep pitcher in the 2008 class, Melville struggled his senior season, but the Royals took him in the 4th round and gave him 1.25 million to sign. At a lean 6'5 and with a very smooth delivery, Melville is certainly looks the part of a pitcher and his low to mid 90s heater is an above average pitch. He also has an above average curve and serviceable changeup. Melville is enjoying a solid but unspectacular debut in low-A.
Mike Montgomery - Montgomery was drafted in the supplemental first round of 2009 and has been very good in low-A this year. He recently earned a promotion to high-A due to his 2.27 ERA and only one HR allowed in 58 innings. A former basketball player the 6'5 Montgomery is a tremendous athlete for a pitcher but is still growing into his frame. His fastball sits in the low 90s and at this point his changeup is ahead of his breaking ball. Montgomery has the highest ceiling of any Royals pitching prospect, but still has a long way to go.
Evaluation of Pitchers - The Royals actually have a few more solid pitching prospects, but these four are the cream of the crop. None of them are exactly knocking down the door for the majors however. I do think that pitching will eventually be the strength for this team. While normal attrition tells us not all of these pitchers will pan out, none of them have any glaring red flags and there are several other players already in the system that may surprise down the road.
How to fix the Disaster
First of all, I think a little bit of realism is in order. First, the group of players currently on the major league roster is not going to win anything. Second, none of the best prospects in the Royals system are close to the majors so there is no help immediately on the way. As a result of these two factors, it seems obvious to me that Kansas City will not be a competitive team until 2012 at the earliest. It is my belief that the team should try and aim for that year as their first "bounce back" season with the goal of winning a division title in 2013. That may seem like a long way from now, but this team is in such a deep hole I do not see another choice. Here is how I would do it.
Phase 1: Trade any player of any value for high-ceiling prospects who are not yet knocking on the door of the majors. You do not want players about to reach the majors because they are more expensive and right now it is imperative to get max value out of your few resources.
First of all you are going to have to trade Greinke for a huge haul. Greinke is relatively inexpensive, young and under team control for several more years so he should fetch a massive haul. The Royals must look for up the middle assets, particularly at catcher and at shortstop, since those players are the hardest to find. Call up Tampa Bay and ask for a package based around Tim Beckham, Desmond Jennings and Reid Brignac. Call the Indians and tell them to build around Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall or the Giants with Posey and Adrianza. For Greinke you should be able to get back two premier hitting prospects and at least 1 premier pitcher plus a couple of lower tier prospects.
Secondly you will have to trade Joakim Soria. After Greinke he is your most valuable asset, and a team that is going to lose does not need an elite closer. Given his age and price, Soria should also fetch a pretty good haul. Maybe the Brewers will part with Alcides Escobar and Brett Lawrie for him when Hoffman is not around anymore. Again it is important to focus on getting hitters, particularly up the middle, defensively sound players if possible.
Finally you should be able to get a couple of mid level players for Gil Meche, Coco Crisp, Alberto Callaspo, David Dejesus, Kyle Farnsworth and Ron Mahay. Do not look for that much in return, again focus on getting some higher ceiling guys if possible, but anything that could conceivably be useful a few years from now would be better than any of these guys long term.
Phase 2: Stop drafting first baseman or players with defensive issues in the top five picks of the draft. Defense matters! Do not just take the player with best bat, take the best all around player. This year was an odd one with very few solid position player prospects available at the time of the draft and Crow was a solid pick, but looking back at past years some criticism is in order. In 2008 they took Eric Hosmer when they really should have taken Buster Posey or Gordon Beckham. In 2007 they took Mike Moustakas when they probably should have taken Matt Wieters. In 2006 it was Hochever over Longoria. I am not opposed to drafting pitchers, but when drafting in the top 3 (as they did these 3 seasons) the past has shown that drafting a hitter, particularly one at a key position on the diamond is the right way to go.
Phase 3: Over the next couple of seasons do not sign any long term contracts. Sign veteran stop gaps to short, cheap deals and then if possible, trade them at the deadline to teams that need them for prospects. It is also important to sign veterans who will provide a good example for young players, that means hard workers who have no problem with being mentors. The key here is to not be on the hook for large amounts of money when your prospects start to reach the majors. This way you can splurge on bigger free agents to fill in that gaps or sign your young players to long term deals.
The Royals are a mess for many reasons and a long way from being competitive. I believe that following the steps I have outline would put them on the right track; they certainly would not be doing any worse than they are now.
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