Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Ranking the 32 starting NFL Quarterbacks

Inspired by a conversation I heard on Mike and Mike while getting ready to leave for Law School this morning, I decided to subjectively rank all of the quarterbacks in the NFL. This is purely from my perspective and solely states the order in which I would personally choose the QB's if I was starting my own team. This has nothing to do with fantasy sports either, this is purely if all of the QB's were thrown into a pool and open for drafting, what my "big board" would look like. Note that this is a ranking for my perceived value of them for this season only. So, without further ado....

1. Peyton Manning - 16 starts, 4,000+ yards, 27+ TDs practically guaranteed. Manning is also the unquestioned leader of the Colts and has proven he can win the big one. By the time he retires I fully expect him to be considered the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL and he is currently in his prime. He is the unquestioned #1 quarterback in the league, in my opinion.

2. Drew Brees - Since 2004-2005 Brees' worst QB rating is 89.2. He is an incredibly accurate passer and has impeccable decision making ability and an uncanny ability to read defenses. The system he plays in gets a lot of credit for his successes, but how effective would it be without him?

3. Tom Brady - If not for his injury last season, Brady would be nipping at Manning's heels but early signs from this season have not been overwhelmingly positive for Brady. Obviously his track record is sterling and he should regain his old form before long, and it is a testament to his ability that he still rates this highly coming off such a serious surgery.

4. Ben Roethlisberger - I have never been a fan of the phrase, "he just wins games" but it is hard to justify this ranking in any other way. Roethlisberger is not impressive statistically in many ways, but the guy has won two Superbowls and seems to have an innate ability to make big plays at the right time. He is tough as nails, makes good decisions and never gives up on a play. Similar to all of the players above him, he is a born leader and teammates love playing alongside him.

5. Philip Rivers - From the same draft class as Roethlisberger, and the better passer in statistical terms, Rivers is also as tough as they come. However, Rivers' teams have underperformed a bit over the last couple of reasons and while I do not feel it was through any fault of his, he has to slot in behind Big Ben for that reason.

6. Aaron Rodgers - He has only been a starter for one season, but he was a great year despite a poor running game and suspect offensive line. Rodgers also handled the whole Favre situation flawlessly which seemed to endear himself to his teammates. Because Rodgers has so much potential and also appears to have the right mentality for the NFL he ranks very highly on the list despite his lack of experience.

7. Matt Ryan - Even less experienced than Rodgers, but it was impossible to ignore how well Ryan performed last season under less than ideal circumstances. He does all of the little things well and plays with the poise of a veteran. He also has all the intangibles and physical tools that you look for in a quarterback. I expect that if I were to do this list again a couple of years from now he would rank a good deal higher.

8. Eli Manning - I'm actually surprised I have him this high, but after breaking him down it makes sense. He won a Superbowl and last year had by far his best statistical season, and did it mostly without his security blanket, Plaxico Burress. The Superbowl win won him the trust of his teammates and if last year's number were a sign of things to come, he may actually be ranked too low.

9. Donovon McNabb - I have always been a fan of McNabb's and wanted to rank him ahead of Eli but simply could not justify it. Between the healthy and some suspect performances in big games, McNabb's stock has fallen a little bit despite his outstanding statistical resume. I actually think getting out of Philadelphia would do wonders for him because he has been a much better quarterback over the course of his career than he has been given credit for. All that said, I think he is starting to decline and his best years are now behind him.

10. Carson Palmer - Still has not really regained his pre-injury form but when Palmer is right he can be as good as anyone. He has had a rough go of it with all of the turmoil surrounding the Bengals but has consistently handled it well. He is simply too talented to slip any further down the board, even in this one year scenario.

11. Kurt Warner - Warner has won a Superbowl and has proven over the last couple of seasons that he still has the ability to put up big numbers. Objectively, he should probably rank higher, but these are my personal rankings and I'm putting him here. I simply do not trust him to always make the right choice in a big spot. I've seen him throw the ball right to a defender too many times and since he does not offer any value with anything other than his throwing, this seems appropriate to me.

12. Tony Romo - Similar to Warner, I just do not trust him in a big spot despite the gaudy statistics. He is great at improvising, has a good arm and throws one of the best deep balls in the league, but he still tends to be very mistake prone. All this still has time to change and I do think the Cowboys can win a Superbowl with Romo as their quarterback, but I just cannot see taking him over any of the people above in 2009.

13. Joe Flacco - I'm honestly shocked he is this high. Last year they made the playoffs mostly because Flacco was not asked to do much, but when he was asked to make a throw, he often did. Already it is clear he is being trusted more this year and so far the results are good. He has all the physical tools to be a success and expect him to climb this chart slowly over the coming years.

14. Chad Pennington - Pennington knows his strengths and his weaknesses. He is incredibly accurate has a great rapport with his receivers. The reason he ranks this lowly is because I just do not think he has the ability to quickly bring back his team if they are down. This points was perfectly illustrated a couple days ago when they lost to the Colts on Monday Night Football. Pennington is a good quarterback and you can win with him, and it is to his credit that he ranks this highly despite being one of the least physically gifted passers in the game.

15. Jay Cutler - The anti-Pennington. With possibly the best arm in the game, Cutler can make spectacular plays but I question his mechanics, decision making and attitude. I personally would not be thrilled about having him as my teammate after all of the off-season shenanigans. However because of his tools and big play ability he still sits just above the midpoint of the league. He has more potential than almost anyone on this list.

16. Matt Schaub - Schaub has a lot of ability but has not been able to put it on display because he has spent far too much time in the training room. Because he has not really proven anything yet, he ranks here, but he has a good chance of rocketing up this board if he can put together a full healthy season.

17. Kyle Orton - Orton will not wow you, but he quietly had a very solid season last year and has taken a team to the playoffs before. He is a fairly steady performer and in the right situation can have success on a team.

18. Brett Favre - I am a little tired of the whole Brett Favre experience and I get the impression a lot of the players in the NFL are as well. He still has some talent, but as his arm continues to lose its power he will have to rely more and more on his decision making, and that was never his best attribute. I admire how he has managed the game in his first two starts this year and I may be short changing him on the list for subjective reasons, but he is another player I simply do not trust in a big spot anymore.

19 Mark Sanchez - A rookie probably should not rank this highly, particularly one who had as little experience at the college level as Sanchez, however since the moment he has been drafted Sanchez has done no wrong. By all accounts he is an incredibly hard worker, a born leader and he obviously has all the physical tools to be great. I believe he can have success in a manner similar to Joe Flacco last season. As long as you do not ask him to do too much, he can be a valuable asset.

20. Matt Hasselbeck - I may have him a little too low on this list, but he is getting up there in years, is coming off an awful, injury plagued season, and has really only been good in one of the last three years. I'm also always skeptical of quarterbacks with chronic back problems. His performance this year so far has done nothing to change my opinion of him, and he now sits firmly in "prove it" status for me in regards to his value.

21. Matt Cassell - Cassell was excellent last year, but it would be hard to find a situation more favorable to a quarterback than the 2008 Patriots. He still has a lot to prove to me and his performance last week against Oakland was far from inspiring. He is another one that has a chance to move way up the list with only a handful of good games, but I just cannot justify taking him over any of the people ahead of him at this point.

22. Shaun Hill - Hill is sort of Ben Roethlisberger light to me. Do you realize he is 7-4 as a starter over the last two seasons? However, Roethlisberger ranks where he does because he has won two Superbowls and a huge percentage of his games. Hill is obviously not there yet and given his limited skills this seems like an appropriate place for him until he proves he belongs higher.

23. Marc Bulger - Bulger used to be one of the best quarterbacks in football, so what happened? His team fell apart all around him. Personally I think the talent is still in there somewhere and he would be able to show it, in a better environment. Since this list evaluates quarterbacks in a vacuum I think this is a fair place for him.

24. David Garrard - Garrard had a very impressive 2007 season but really has not done much otherwise. He is an asset when running the ball and has shown the ability to be an effective passer at times as well. Maybe he should rank higher but his mediocre play over the last year-plus just does not inspire confidence in me.

25. Jason Campbell - Campbell does not make many mistakes but often looks downright scared of taking any risks whatsoever. He has excellent tools but never puts them on display. Campbell's problems stem completely from the mental side of the game, but since he has not really improved at all in the last few seasons, I can't see how he belongs any higher than this.

26. Trent Edwards - Edwards has had a nice start to the season, but I have watched him play several times, and every time I am left unimpressed. He just does not seem to have enough ability to be a success without being a master of the subtleties and nuances of the game, and nothing he has shown so far makes me believe he ever will have that trait either. Still young enough to improve, but consider me skeptical.

27. Kerry Collins - In his earlier days, Collins proved that in a perfect situation he could be a great quarterback, but when things were less than ideal, he was never able to get it done. Now that he is older and does not have quite the same arm strength anymore, I think his ceiling as a passer is just incredibly low. I do not think he is capable of making big plays anymore, nor is he consistent.

28. Jake DelHomme - Has had a lot of success in his career, but always seemed to me like one of those guys that often chucked the ball up in the air and depended on his receivers to make a play far too often. It finally appears that this is coming back to haunt him and as a result I have lost all faith in his ability to win an important game. Maybe I'm wrong but I just really would not want him to be running my offense.

29. Byron Leftwich - Blessed with a rocket arm, but the slowest release in the game and the mobility of a redwood, Leftwich really needs to be in the right situation to have success. He has also proven to be a bit fragile over the years despite his toughness. The fact that the Jaguars chose Garrard (who is far from spectacular) over him is also telling in my mind, and while he might be Tampa Bay's best option, I would not want him to be my quarterback.

30. Brady Quinn - I was sort of on the Brady Quinn bandwagon coming into the year but my nose still has not recovered from the two stink bombs he has thrown out so far. In retrospect, maybe it is telling that Cleveland went so long to give him a shot despite the big contract and Derek Anderson's major struggles. He has had plenty of time to learn the game from the sidelines at this point but really has shown almost nothing on the field. Until he starts proving he can cut it in the NFL I see no reason for him to be higher on this list.

31. Jamarcus Russell - Similar to Quinn in that he has shown nothing in games to make me a believer. Do not be fooled by last year's statistics, almost all of his decent numbers were accumulated after his team was already out of the game. By the way, he has completed 35% of his passes so far this season.

32. Matthew Stafford - I will be the first to admit that I was not a big Stafford fan while he was in college. Despite the big arm his statistics were never really that impressive and I saw him make a lot of really poor decisions. I looked at him as a a bit of project in the NFL and now he is being thrown right into the fire. Maybe he will be good someday, but I am sure he is not right now.

3 comments:

  1. Impressive just from the fact that you actually thought through all the QB’s, I would have lumped numbers 20 – 32 into a bucket called “Who Cares – Interchangeable”. Actually on second thought I would do that for numbers 20 – 30 and then for 31 & 32 lumped Shaun Hill and Jamarcus Russell into a bucket called “The Next Ryan Leaf”.



    I liked the fact you had Payton first as opposed to the popular vote of Tom Brady which makes putting Drew Brees even more impressive at #2. Not sure when you actually put all these rankings together since they are for this year only, but after Week 2 it certainly is bearing out.



    I cant argue with your first 4, but then I beg to differ. Granted, I am a die hard Giants fan and I fully recognize I may be looking at things through blue-colored glasses, but how can you not rate Eli #5?



    - Rivers is tough and talented, but like Romo is prone to mistakes in pressure situations and doesn’t seem to be able to lift the team on his shoulders in crunch time.

    - Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are undeniably talented but haven’t done anything yet – its only been 1 year.

    - Eli has 14 4th quarter come from behind wins only 2 games into his 5th season. He brought the team from behind to win the Super Bowl against the Pats. He dominated in Jerry Jones Wallyworld of a stadium, and he doesn’t lose games. His first 2 years he wasn’t great by any stretch, but since then he has increased his accuracy and cut down on bad INT’s. If you rank Big Ben by “he just wins games” then you cant have Eli ranked any lower than 5th on your list.

    tg

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  2. Well it all depends on if your drafting to start a team or your drafting to win this year (current year). I am under the impression it is drafting for right now (and/or 2 years out). If so, Your top 5 is perfect. Manning is still best QB in game, could be top 6 or 7 all time. Breese is a great thrower, more athletic Marino. Brady is Brady, Joe Montana Part 2. Rivers and Big Ben are very good to, I like Ben better but they are interchangable. Here is where we differ. If your building for the long haul I get the next few guys, but if we are building for next 3 seasons, Warner is 6 and McNabb is 7, then Eli, Yes Eli. Not as talented, but no mistake and nads of steele in the 4th quarter. (Yes I said nads) Rogers and Romo are over-rated ... and Ryan (Next Brady maybe) (i love) but too soon to tell, same with Flacco (Next Big Ben) (who I love too) and please, lets relax with Sanchez, 2 games .... And finally, Get the 2 most over rated QB's off the list ... Cutler and Favre, both suck.

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  3. I think it is very difficult to rank QBs themselves, rather than the team’s passing offense. E.g. Carson Palmer was great his rookie year but kinda sucked the last 2 years. It's not like he got worse or anything, rather the players around him either got injured or left. That being said, this list makes intuitive sense for the most part. I do think Big Ben and Pennington are too high, partially for the reasons I've stated (the teams were more responsible than the QBs themselves).

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